Calling all "Senior Members T2W" Experienced traders! Help Newbies?
SOCRATES
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It is my experience that many people can read and not take it in. Many people can be told the absolute truth in plain language. Many can receive detailed explanations repeated again and again ad nauseam.
But no one will benefit from any of this unless it lands correctly as a consequence of the recipient first allowing himself to be open minded followed by him having a realisation. The recipient is only ready for this if he is ready, and then additionally when he is ready, regardless of what he may pretend to the contrary; and this is my experience. And as all of this is obvious to me you can understand that I sometimes get exasperated when I am assured it has landed but it hasn't.
But no one will benefit from any of this unless it lands correctly as a consequence of the recipient first allowing himself to be open minded followed by him having a realisation. The recipient is only ready for this if he is ready, and then additionally when he is ready, regardless of what he may pretend to the contrary; and this is my experience. And as all of this is obvious to me you can understand that I sometimes get exasperated when I am assured it has landed but it hasn't.
frugi
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Thank you for the replies to my question.
The bear market quotation appears in "The Trouble with Prosperity" by James Grant but he probably didn't coin it personally.
A chap called Nick Murray said "A bear market: A period during which common stocks are returned to their rightful owners".
"The only way to beat the market is to exploit other investors' mistakes" (Ellis) ... i.e to be more efficient.
The bear market quotation appears in "The Trouble with Prosperity" by James Grant but he probably didn't coin it personally.
A chap called Nick Murray said "A bear market: A period during which common stocks are returned to their rightful owners".
"The only way to beat the market is to exploit other investors' mistakes" (Ellis) ... i.e to be more efficient.
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dbphoenix
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SOCRATES said:
Personally, I believe that "detailed explanations" are a mistake and a waste of time (though many examples may be required). Unless and until the beginner has unlearned all that he thinks he knows that is in fact untrue, all the detailed explanations in the world accomplish nothing but to boost post counts. And generate yet more content for yet more courses and seminars.
The laws are absolute. The principles are simple. All one has to do is be what Douglas called "available".
"It is my experience that many people can read and not take it in".... that is because we don't just learn from reading... to cement something ,an idea ,whatever, we must interact with it and the more we interact ,the more 'angles' we look at something from the more we really begin to understand the issue ...but this takes time and it takes effort and neither will be forthcoming if
we do not have the motivation.....
we do not have the motivation.....
dbphoenix
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chump said:
I should think that avoiding the loss of everything one owns would be motivation enough, but perhaps not.
Most people, for example, would say that they trade to make money. This is apparently not true since most people lose money. If they were in the market to make money, then they'd do whatever was necessary to make money. But they don't. Which tells me that they are in the market for some other reason . . .
DBP,
"I should think that avoiding the loss of everything one owns would be motivation enough, but perhaps not."......
I think this statement does not attend to the misguided perceptions that a lot of people have..... what I am saying here is how many people actually come to trading thinking they are going to lose money ?....... I don't know about trading,but elsewhere I can tell you the people I have come across are not thinking like that..no, they are only trying to estimate how much they are going to make ? and it does not seem to make any difference that that they have this view even though they are 'dabbling' in an area where they have no prior experience /knowledge.... they just don't seem to be in touch with the reality that where there is no experience it is going to take time and effort to develop enough to even reach breakeven consistently...hence motivational issues are thwarted
"I should think that avoiding the loss of everything one owns would be motivation enough, but perhaps not."......
I think this statement does not attend to the misguided perceptions that a lot of people have..... what I am saying here is how many people actually come to trading thinking they are going to lose money ?....... I don't know about trading,but elsewhere I can tell you the people I have come across are not thinking like that..no, they are only trying to estimate how much they are going to make ? and it does not seem to make any difference that that they have this view even though they are 'dabbling' in an area where they have no prior experience /knowledge.... they just don't seem to be in touch with the reality that where there is no experience it is going to take time and effort to develop enough to even reach breakeven consistently...hence motivational issues are thwarted
stevespray
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chump....
Could it be that when folk first discover 'the markets' they look at charts and other such things such as complicated computer trading systems. In hindsight the markets look easy. This is why the snake oil salesmen can make their money from the uneducated. Not only do they sell their wares but also the dream of being rich, all this based on chart patterns which seem oh so easy to read. This mistake Soc has mentioned. The markets are not there for our benifit.
Steve.
Could it be that when folk first discover 'the markets' they look at charts and other such things such as complicated computer trading systems. In hindsight the markets look easy. This is why the snake oil salesmen can make their money from the uneducated. Not only do they sell their wares but also the dream of being rich, all this based on chart patterns which seem oh so easy to read. This mistake Soc has mentioned. The markets are not there for our benifit.
Steve.
dbphoenix
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SOCRATES said:
I'll be charitable and suggest that "refuse" may be too strong a word. What may also account for this state of affairs is that beginners (and there's no statute of limitations on being a beginner) don't understand the difference between appearance and reality, or, in Magee's words, between the territory and the maps we use to represent that territory. They are, in other words, following the wrong maps. In order to determine whether or not one is using an accurate map, he has to return to the territory and take another look.
Otherwise, one is faced with a belligerent "The XYZ is too a leading indicator; my map says so RIGHT HERE"
dbphoenix
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chump said:
Again, you're assuming that people trade to make money. How many people trade to prove to their fathers that they're not losers after all? Or to take a passive-aggressive sort of revenge against a wife they can't stand but can't afford to divorce, or children they wish they'd never had? Or to prove to the bullies that beat them up on the bus way back when that brains matter more than brawn? Or to prove to themselves once and for all that they are in fact the failures they always suspected they were? Or to prove that they are smarter, more skilled, more talented, more intuitive, more whatever than all those other losers who aren't as smart, skilled, talented, intuitive, whatever as they are, regardless of the compelling evidence that they are in fact no better than anybody else and may in fact be considerably worse.
There are all sorts of reasons why one might want to give away everything he owns. Bears thoughtful consideration.
DBP,
I wasn't assuming that at all..I would be surprised if people did not have reasons for being in the market in addition to making money or even excluding making money... what I was pointing out is there is a bullish predominance which causes people to look at the positive outcomes of issues to the detriment of what they should be looking at....
Business in general is not really that different to trading at least in some ways....look along any high street and clock the number of retail outlets that come and go quite quickly...do you know the commonest reason for that occurence ? ..... cash flow......the majority discount the amount of time and effort (experience) that it takes to establish a business and because of that they are typically undercapitalised and fail...... in trading I see the same issue..... discounting how much time and effort it will take to accumulate the experience to stay in the game...fail
I wasn't assuming that at all..I would be surprised if people did not have reasons for being in the market in addition to making money or even excluding making money... what I was pointing out is there is a bullish predominance which causes people to look at the positive outcomes of issues to the detriment of what they should be looking at....
Business in general is not really that different to trading at least in some ways....look along any high street and clock the number of retail outlets that come and go quite quickly...do you know the commonest reason for that occurence ? ..... cash flow......the majority discount the amount of time and effort (experience) that it takes to establish a business and because of that they are typically undercapitalised and fail...... in trading I see the same issue..... discounting how much time and effort it will take to accumulate the experience to stay in the game...fail
JumpOff
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Regarding things that must be unlearned:
Such a simple sentence - and yet I am embarrassed to say that I do not understand what
" in " means, so I' wondering how I can begin to unlearn it. Sorry to be so obtuse - it's not on purpose! Do you mean "in the market - with an open position?"
Thanks,
JO
dbphoenix said:
Such a simple sentence - and yet I am embarrassed to say that I do not understand what
" in " means, so I' wondering how I can begin to unlearn it. Sorry to be so obtuse - it's not on purpose! Do you mean "in the market - with an open position?"
Thanks,
JO
The market operates whether you are in it or not, if you are in it then you can make money but the market will continue whether you do or you do not. Other investors will not only not give a fig if it you win or lose, they will generally not know you were even in unless you tell them. It's like interacting with a machine - I know some people have pet names for their cars, but it won't make it any more reliable, safer, faster or economical to drive.
Markets don't react to what you do either - 'I did this, then the market dropped to take out my stop before reversing...' don't allocate intelligence to a distribution system, especially if you are so small as to be unnoticeable within it, just learn how it works. (Which isn't all that easy in a complex system).
I think a fair number come in thinking it is easy money, possibly fuelled by the unusual bull market of the late 90's. They believe that the more you pay out, the better the software, data and advice you'll get, and with this 'edge' you can't help but make a profit. Low barriers to entry via spreadbetting ensure a steady influx of fodder for the SB companies at least.
It also goes without saying that when you do look at a trading program the signals absolutely jump out at you - 'at the hard right edge' the signals are often far less obvious, and you are likely viewing a chart preselected for its allure to begin with.
Lots of traps around, but they are often of our own making.
Dave
(By the way Soc, if I'm one of the 19 who disappeared or whatever it was you counted, I've been busy and only just got back! I DID leave T2W onscreen however.... )
Markets don't react to what you do either - 'I did this, then the market dropped to take out my stop before reversing...' don't allocate intelligence to a distribution system, especially if you are so small as to be unnoticeable within it, just learn how it works. (Which isn't all that easy in a complex system).
I think a fair number come in thinking it is easy money, possibly fuelled by the unusual bull market of the late 90's. They believe that the more you pay out, the better the software, data and advice you'll get, and with this 'edge' you can't help but make a profit. Low barriers to entry via spreadbetting ensure a steady influx of fodder for the SB companies at least.
It also goes without saying that when you do look at a trading program the signals absolutely jump out at you - 'at the hard right edge' the signals are often far less obvious, and you are likely viewing a chart preselected for its allure to begin with.
Lots of traps around, but they are often of our own making.
Dave
(By the way Soc, if I'm one of the 19 who disappeared or whatever it was you counted, I've been busy and only just got back! I DID leave T2W onscreen however.... )
So to sum up thus far, the market is not there for our benefit, we make our own success and are responsible for our own actions there is but no one to blame but ourselves. We have to approach trading and the market as an entity unknown to us, we have to start again by learning the market as it is and not as we perceive it to be before we can make judgements on what the market is from structured knowledge of how the market really does work. Only then can we begin to move towards the first step.
Our mindset has to be open to complete thought removing all bias only from complete understanding and confirmed knowledge can we then presume to know or understand how the markets work.
This requires more than just dedication, it requires strength of character and the right character to be able to comprehend and deal with all that the market can throw our way as it is totally unforgiving. It requires a willingness and desire to learn and continue to learn even when you make progress up the hidden ladder of success. You must be prepared to totally commit yourself to this enterprise that can take years to achieve and become a labour of love and part structured obsession to work your way through the trials and tribulations of understanding how it works.
Am I on the right path!
kevin
Our mindset has to be open to complete thought removing all bias only from complete understanding and confirmed knowledge can we then presume to know or understand how the markets work.
This requires more than just dedication, it requires strength of character and the right character to be able to comprehend and deal with all that the market can throw our way as it is totally unforgiving. It requires a willingness and desire to learn and continue to learn even when you make progress up the hidden ladder of success. You must be prepared to totally commit yourself to this enterprise that can take years to achieve and become a labour of love and part structured obsession to work your way through the trials and tribulations of understanding how it works.
Am I on the right path!
kevin
