Brexit - in or out

[Splitlink]

Cameron promised to get it down to the tens of thousands. Instead, this year, it was 330,000 by the BBC4 news at 1300.

The immigration question is one that the antiBrexits cannot win. Best to argue about something else in the time left.

 

[Atilla]

To all you traders out there obsessed with forecasting and models.

Let's cut out all the noise wrt socio-politico-economico crap.

Let's assume the UK economy is a black box. You only see a number outside the box which tells you where it is in the pecking order wrt rest of the World. It currently is 5th.


What is the trend?

1. Is it going up
2. Is it level
3. Is it going down


This is key. Why would you in 5th place in the World - initiate a most dramatic and contrary to most studies a negative self induced down turn?

BECAUSE of WHAT PRECISELY? This is what I'm really struggling with.







Gross domestic product 2014

(millions of
Ranking Economy US dollars)

USA 1 United States 17,419,000
CHN 2 China 10,354,832
JPN 3 Japan 4,601,461
DEU 4 Germany 3,868,291
GBR 5 United Kingdom 2,988,893
FRA 6 France 2,829,192
BRA 7 Brazil 2,416,636
ITA 8 Italy 2,141,161
IND 9 India 2,048,517
RUS 10 Russian Federation 1,860,598 a
CAN 11 Canada 1,785,387
AUS 12 Australia 1,454,675
KOR 13 Korea, Rep. 1,410,383
ESP 14 Spain 1,381,342
MEX 15 Mexico 1,294,690
IDN 16 Indonesia 888,538
NLD 17 Netherlands 879,319
TUR 18 Turkey 798,429
SAU 19 Saudi Arabia 753,832
CHE 20 Switzerland 701,037
SWE 21 Sweden 571,090
NGA 22 Nigeria 568,508
POL 23 Poland 544,967
ARG 24 Argentina 537,660
BEL 25 Belgium 531,547
NOR 26 Norway 499,817
AUT 27 Austria 436,888
IRN 28 Iran, Islamic Rep. 425,326
THA 29 Thailand 404,824
ARE 30 United Arab Emirates 399,451
VEN 31 Venezuela, RB 381,286
COL 32 Colombia 377,740
ZAF 33 South Africa 350,141
DNK 34 Denmark 342,362
MYS 35 Malaysia 338,104
SGP 36 Singapore 307,860
ISR 37 Israel 305,675
EGY 38 Egypt, Arab Rep. 301,499
HKG 39 Hong Kong SAR, China 290,896
PHL 40 Philippines 284,777
FIN 41 Finland 272,217
CHL 42 Chile 258,062
IRL 43 Ireland 250,814
PAK 44 Pakistan 243,632
GRC 45 Greece 235,574
PRT 46 Portugal 230,117
IRQ 47 Iraq 223,500
KAZ 48 Kazakhstan 217,872
DZA 49 Algeria 213,518
QAT 50 Qatar 210,109
CZE 51 Czech Republic 205,270
PER 52 Peru 202,596
NZL 53 New Zealand 199,970
ROM 54 Romania 199,044
VNM 55 Vietnam 186,205
BGD 56 Bangladesh 172,887
KWT 57 Kuwait 163,612
AGO 58 Angola 138,357
HUN 59 Hungary 138,347
UKR 60 Ukraine 131,805 a
MAR 61 Morocco 110,009 b
PRI 62 Puerto Rico 103,135
ECU 63 Ecuador 100,917
SVK 64 Slovak Republic 100,249
OMN 65 Oman 81,797
LKA 66 Sri Lanka 78,824
CUB 67 Cuba 77,150
BLR 68 Belarus 76,139
AZE 69 Azerbaijan 75,198
SDN 70 Sudan 73,815
LUX 71 Luxembourg 64,874
MMR 72 Myanmar 64,330
DOM 73 Dominican Republic 64,138
UZB 74 Uzbekistan 62,644
KEN 75 Kenya 60,937
GTM 76 Guatemala 58,827
URY 77 Uruguay 57,471
HRV 78 Croatia 57,113
BGR 79 Bulgaria 56,717
ETH 80 Ethiopia 55,612
MAC 81 Macao SAR, China 55,502
CRI 82 Costa Rica 49,553
SVN 83 Slovenia 49,491
TUN 84 Tunisia 48,613
LTU 85 Lithuania 48,354
TZA 86 Tanzania 48,057 c
TKM 87 Turkmenistan 47,932
PAN 88 Panama 46,213
LBN 89 Lebanon 45,731
SRB 90 Serbia 43,866
LBY 91 Libya 41,143
GHA 92 Ghana 38,617
YEM 93 Yemen, Rep. 35,955
JOR 94 Jordan 35,827
CIV 95 Côte d'Ivoire 34,254
BHR 96 Bahrain 33,851
ZAR 97 Congo, Dem. Rep. 33,121
BOL 98 Bolivia 32,996
CMR 99 Cameroon 32,051
LVA 100 Latvia 31,287
PRY 101 Paraguay 30,881
TTO 102 Trinidad and Tobago 28,883
ZMB 103 Zambia 27,066
UGA 104 Uganda 26,998
EST 105 Estonia 26,485
SLV 106 El Salvador 25,164
CYP 107 Cyprus 23,226 d
AFG 108 Afghanistan 20,038
NPL 109 Nepal 19,770
HND 110 Honduras 19,385
BIH 111 Bosnia and Herzegovina 18,521
GAB 112 Gabon 18,180
BRN 113 Brunei Darussalam 17,105
ISL 114 Iceland 17,036
PNG 115 Papua New Guinea 16,929
KHM 116 Cambodia 16,778
GEO 117 Georgia 16,530 e
MOZ 118 Mozambique 15,938
BWA 119 Botswana 15,813
SEN 120 Senegal 15,658
GNQ 121 Equatorial Guinea 15,530
ZWE 122 Zimbabwe 14,197
COG 123 Congo, Rep. 14,177
TCD 124 Chad 13,922
JAM 125 Jamaica 13,891
SSD 126 South Sudan 13,282
ALB 127 Albania 13,212
NAM 128 Namibia 12,995
WBG 129 West Bank and Gaza 12,738
MUS 130 Mauritius 12,630
BFA 131 Burkina Faso 12,542
MLI 132 Mali 12,037
MNG 133 Mongolia 12,016
LAO 134 Lao PDR 11,997
NIC 135 Nicaragua 11,806
ARM 136 Armenia 11,644
MKD 137 Macedonia, FYR 11,324
MDG 138 Madagascar 10,593
MLT 139 Malta 9,643
BEN 140 Benin 9,575
TJK 141 Tajikistan 9,242
HTI 142 Haiti 8,713
BHS 143 Bahamas, The 8,511
NER 144 Niger 8,169
MDA 145 Moldova 7,962 f
RWA 146 Rwanda 7,890
KGZ 147 Kyrgyz Republic 7,404
KSV 148 Kosovo 7,387
GIN 149 Guinea 6,624
SOM 150 Somalia 5,707
BMU 151 Bermuda 5,574
LIE 152 Liechtenstein 5,488
SUR 153 Suriname 5,210
MRT 154 Mauritania 5,061
SLE 155 Sierra Leone 4,838
MNE 156 Montenegro 4,588
FJI 157 Fiji 4,532
TGO 158 Togo 4,518
SWZ 159 Swaziland 4,413
BRB 160 Barbados 4,355
MWI 161 Malawi 4,258
ADO 162 Andorra 3,249
GUY 163 Guyana 3,097
BDI 164 Burundi 3,094
MDV 165 Maldives 3,062
FRO 166 Faroe Islands 2,613
GRL 167 Greenland 2,441
LSO 168 Lesotho 2,181
LBR 169 Liberia 2,013
BTN 170 Bhutan 1,959
CPV 171 Cabo Verde 1,871
CAF 172 Central African Republic 1,723
BLZ 173 Belize 1,699
DJI 174 Djibouti 1,589
SYC 175 Seychelles 1,423
TMP 176 Timor-Leste 1,417
LCA 177 St. Lucia 1,404
ATG 178 Antigua and Barbuda 1,221
SLB 179 Solomon Islands 1,158
GNB 180 Guinea-Bissau 1,022
GRD 181 Grenada 912
KNA 182 St. Kitts and Nevis 852
GMB 183 Gambia, The 851
VUT 184 Vanuatu 815
WSM 185 Samoa 800
VCT 186 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 729
COM 187 Comoros 624
DMA 188 Dominica 524
TON 189 Tonga 434
STP 190 São Tomé and Principe 337
FSM 191 Micronesia, Fed. Sts. 318
PLW 192 Palau 251
MHL 193 Marshall Islands 187
KIR 194 Kiribati 167
TUV 195 Tuvalu 38

ASM American Samoa ..
ABW Aruba ..
CYM Cayman Islands ..
CHI Channel Islands ..
CUW Curaçao ..
ERI Eritrea ..
PYF French Polynesia ..
GUM Guam ..
IMY Isle of Man ..
PRK Korea, Dem. People's Rep. ..
MCO Monaco ..
NCL New Caledonia ..
MNP Northern Mariana Islands ..
SMR San Marino ..
SXM Sint Maarten (Dutch part) ..
MAF St. Martin (French part) ..
SYR Syrian Arab Republic ..
TCA Turks and Caicos Islands ..
VIR Virgin Islands (U.S.) ..

WLD World 77,960,607

LIC Low income 397,849
MIC Middle income 24,748,448
LMC Lower middle income 5,781,069
UMC Upper middle income 18,958,149
LMY Low & middle income 25,148,400
EAP East Asia & Pacific 12,609,716
ECA Europe & Central Asia 1,817,461
LAC Latin America & Caribbean 4,845,035
MNA Middle East & North Africa 1,556,768
SAS South Asia 2,588,688
SSA Sub-Saharan Africa 1,728,322
HIC High income 52,850,488
EMU Euro area 13,410,232

.. Not available.
Note: Rankings include only those economies with confirmed GDP estimates. Figures in italics are for 2013 or 2012.
a. Based on data from official statistics of Ukraine and Russian Federation; by relying on these data, the World Bank does not intend to
make any judgment on the legal or other status of the territories concerned or to prejudice the final determination of the parties' claims.
b. Includes Former Spanish Sahara. c. Covers mainland Tanzania only. d. Data are for the area controlled by the government of Cyprus.
e. Excludes Abkhazia and South Ossetia. f. Excludes Transnistria.

 

[forker]

to move us from number 5 to number 4

 

[counter_violent]

to move us from number 5 to number 4

That list is useless unless you put population figures alongside it. (per capita)

As far as trends go the UK has done ok compared to the majority of EU member countries. But this does not mean that being in the club has helped us One jot. The truth is we could do far better without all the red tape.

I often cite Maggie as the saviour of the UK economy. She deregulated, sorted out the nationalisation fiasco once and for all and basically told people, they had to accept responsibility for themselves.

Result, the UK model went from near basket case to world leader, which other countries then emulated. But not the useless EU of course. They, for the most part went down the protectionist route, and here we are 40 yrs later being held back by the useless socialists / central planners.

 

[counter_violent]

That list is useless unless you put population figures alongside it. (per capita)

As far as trends go the UK has done ok compared to the majority of EU member countries. But this does not mean that being in the club has helped us One jot. The truth is we could do far better without all the red tape.

I often cite Maggie as the saviour of the UK economy. She deregulated, sorted out the nationalisation fiasco once and for all and basically told people, they had to accept responsibility for themselves.

Result, the UK model went from near basket case to world leader, which other countries then emulated. But not the useless EU of course. They, for the most part went down the protectionist route, and here we are 40 yrs later being held back by the useless socialists / central planners.

So when the remainians (in their disdainful manner) bang on about leaving and becoming like Switzerland or Norway.

You can say emphatically...YES WE DO want to be more like Switzerland and Norway.
Then show them the figures of the standard of living they enjoy !

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

 

[forker]

I haven't been to Switzerland but have to Norway and they definitely have a different standard of living. We arrived in Bergen and took a cruise up to the Russian border. We stopped in a small city (I can't remember it's name) but it was full of universities and students. I took my wife out for a few drinks and the place was packed. A pint of beer cost me 10 quid and I remember thinking how the hell do these students afford to drink. Beautiful place, wish I lived there.

 

[vanillaman]

Migration threatens jobs, this I agree but that means Europe needs to get its house in order. It is impossible to stop migration unless you advocate genocide or mass expulsion. That would take us nicely back to Elizabethan Britain. Some of you won't mind of course... Tossing crap out the window again.

So why don't we drop the immigration debate, there was a time for it, exiting Europe will be the worst way to solve it. The property market depends on these migrants, the reason why our houses are so expensive and everyone with an inheritance feels like Donald Trump is because inheritance tax is low and migrants keep driving rent. If they all left, values will plummet, with most Brits living at home till their late 20's what will provide the yield on housing. The buy to let market now has a 3% surcharge on it, so Brexit will just be the nail in the coffin, mortgage defaults will rise... Remember those crappy mortgage bonds, well they returned soon after they disappeared only now the government is guaranteeing 25% of everyone's bag of sh$$. So what do you think happens if property values dip? Most of these people will never make it out of debt. Real estate still support a hell of a lot of people not to mention the impact to mortgage bonds.

So there is more than meets the eye. Who cares about GDP in a world were debt is in charge. Time to get real.

 

[forker]

The property market is over inflated and beyond many people's capacity to afford. You can't have a home become an investment vehicle it's just wrong.

 

[counter_violent]

Migration threatens jobs, this I agree but that means Europe needs to get its house in order. It is impossible to stop migration unless you advocate genocide or mass expulsion. That would take us nicely back to Elizabethan Britain. Some of you won't mind of course... Tossing crap out the window again.

So why don't we drop the immigration debate, there was a time for it, exiting Europe will be the worst way to solve it. The property market depends on these migrants, the reason why our houses are so expensive and everyone with an inheritance feels like Donald Trump is because inheritance tax is low and migrants keep driving rent. If they all left, values will plummet, with most Brits living at home till their late 20's what will provide the yield on housing. The buy to let market now has a 3% surcharge on it, so Brexit will just be the nail in the coffin, mortgage defaults will rise... Remember those crappy mortgage bonds, well they returned soon after they disappeared only now the government is guaranteeing 25% of everyone's bag of sh$$. So what do you think happens if property values dip? Most of these people will never make it out of debt. Real estate still support a hell of a lot of people not to mention the impact to mortgage bonds.

So there is more than meets the eye. Who cares about GDP in a world were debt is in charge. Time to get real.

I've seen it all !

Might I remind you that a house is somewhere to live.

All this talk of who will provide a yield if there is less competition to occupy a property is horsesh1t. I couldn't care less if investors lose money in property. Not that they will lose money. Demand doesn't dry up overnight.
Sounds like you went to Atilla's school of economics.

 

[barjon]

I got 4/1 on a conservative majority at the last general election!

Not with a couple of weeks to go?

 

[ffsear]

Not with a couple of weeks to go?

While ed was coming out with this,.,

 

[Splitlink]

Not with a couple of weeks to go?

Besides, that's history. . The same as the ''Sick Man of Europe'' expression.

We do have a lot of historians on this thread.

 

[counter_violent]

Besides, that's history. . The same as the ''Sick Man of Europe'' expression.

We do have a lot of historians on this thread.

History is very useful especially when people are trying, but failing, to pull the wool over ones eyes.

 

[Sonicscooter]

Migration threatens jobs, this I agree but that means Europe needs to get its house in order. It is impossible to stop migration unless you advocate genocide or mass expulsion. That would take us nicely back to Elizabethan Britain. Some of you won't mind of course... Tossing crap out the window again.

So why don't we drop the immigration debate, there was a time for it, exiting Europe will be the worst way to solve it. The property market depends on these migrants, the reason why our houses are so expensive and everyone with an inheritance feels like Donald Trump is because inheritance tax is low and migrants keep driving rent. If they all left, values will plummet, with most Brits living at home till their late 20's what will provide the yield on housing. The buy to let market now has a 3% surcharge on it, so Brexit will just be the nail in the coffin, mortgage defaults will rise... Remember those crappy mortgage bonds, well they returned soon after they disappeared only now the government is guaranteeing 25% of everyone's bag of sh$$. So what do you think happens if property values dip? Most of these people will never make it out of debt. Real estate still support a hell of a lot of people not to mention the impact to mortgage bonds.

So there is more than meets the eye. Who cares about GDP in a world were debt is in charge. Time to get real.

Do you make this rubbish up as you go along...

 

[Atilla]

So when the remainians (in their disdainful manner) bang on about leaving and becoming like Switzerland or Norway.

You can say emphatically...YES WE DO want to be more like Switzerland and Norway.
Then show them the figures of the standard of living they enjoy !

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

Norway a small country with oil and gas.

Switzerland, the mafiozy bank beyond any regulation or morals - in the heart of Europe.

Both teeny weeny small population sized countries wrt to UK. Ignore all commons sensibilities and declare you want UK to be like them.

That's good. That's real good.


You really know what you are talking about and the issues facing the UK that's for sure

Many others may not appreciate your point or what you are really saying but I do. :cheesy:

 

[Atilla]

The property market is not over inflated but prices are at levels to match supply and demand.

As demand is up supply increases to fulfill demand.

When price of homes drop so will supply.

Price of homes will never be what people want. :!:


There was no reason for banks to change their lending criteria. So nothing to stop them as they have done tightening regulations so everyone will need to earn 3.5 x salary to get mortgage they want.

That's just market economics.

It's the rich people with loads of cash driving house prices up.

People with cash are buying to fill the rental market with supply.


What's the solution. Fix migration numbers on UK housing stock? That's a cracking solution. Surprised nobody thought of that before

 

[Atilla]

I've seen it all !

Might I remind you that a house is somewhere to live.

All this talk of who will provide a yield if there is less competition to occupy a property is horsesh1t. I couldn't care less if investors lose money in property. Not that they will lose money. Demand doesn't dry up overnight.
Sounds like you went to Atilla's school of economics.

You don't have a clue about the pain inflicted on the UK by Mrs T.

Demand doesn't dry up over night you say?

I remember many people caught in a negative equity trap for years and good many lost houses.

It can happen. BoE fears what impact raising rates will have on peoples mortgages. Economies are still fragile.

Do you know or have any appreciation about what rubbish you are talking about???

 

[Sonicscooter]

Thatcher was right, but way to quick in execution without any conscience to the outcome or long term effects....ie complete lack of longterm planning.

 

[Atilla]

Thatcher was right, but way to quick in execution without any conscience to the outcome or long term effects....ie complete lack of longterm planning.

This I agree with.

I also agree strongly that unions needed a good kicking like stale management. I loathed to the point of hating Scargill too.

Crises management and rebuilding failing industries and cutting them down to efficient sizes is different to simply decimating and culling coupled with everyone of her US yanky advisors telling her to sell all Nationalised industries (inlcuding natural monopolies) for a song and then turning them into private monopolies.

Yes she was a great Brit but as with all leaders none of them walk on water and not everything they do is good. One must say what is right and what is wrong.

To blindly worship and follow any leader is just plain foolishness.

I always thought Kenneth Clarke, Heseltine or Howe were natural leaders to the Conservative party and they should have lead.

But the vindictive moo moo put John Major in their place. Why? Because they defended Westland (British interest) against the Skiorsky (against US interests).

Even John Major called them the *******s. I find John Redwood, IDS and Boris real weasels. Hope somehow the country is spared any of their leadership. IDS did do good work in DSS but not as PM.

 

[Sonicscooter]

The problem with politics, is you end up with a group booking, the good, bad and the ugly, to me the whole system is flawed, in every other avenue, the best person for the job is the rule, politics should be the same.