Brexit and the Consequences

[Atilla]

Aw shucks - looks like the remainers were right all along. Damn! Oh well, let's just hope the people trying to derail Brexit get their way and we at least have a second referendum so that I - and all the other idiots who voted to leave - can make amends and vote remain!

Did you read the article?

 

[Atilla]

One for you CV

 

[counter_violent]

One for you CV

So what you're saying is, UK, Ger, NL, Fra, have got a really good deal by subsidising the rest.

Imagine what our growth will be like when we aren't paying out untold billions to some bottomless pit. Additionally, standards of living and social mobility opportunities should rise for all those stuck on minimum wage, as scarcity of cheep migrant labour is rolled out. Our services will also improve at no extra cost, due to a reduction on demand.

It is quite clear what May and the team intends for the UK. To get out into the world, forge trade deals and get some business done.

Forget all that socialist nonsense, no good ever comes of it, spenders and wasters of other peoples money.

 

[counter_violent]

Did you read the article?

Here's a story you might be interested in

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-38650596

This is all about people having access to some truth and battling not only the corrupt EU, but also our own self serving elites. A good start on the road to direct democracy.

Enjoy !

http://www.westmonster.com/

 

[Splitlink]

So what you're saying is, UK, Ger, NL, Fra, have got a really good deal by subsidising the rest.

Imagine what our growth will be like when we aren't paying out untold billions to some bottomless pit. Additionally, standards of living and social mobility opportunities should rise for all those stuck on minimum wage, as scarcity of cheep migrant labour is rolled out. Our services will also improve at no extra cost, due to a reduction on demand.

It is quite clear what May and the team intends for the UK. To get out into the world, forge trade deals and get some business done.

Forget all that socialist nonsense, no good ever comes of it, spenders and wasters of other peoples money.

Yes, but as a consequence, the currency devalued. This is not peculiar to EU, however. This is a problem that capitalism has. I was in the MN, going abroad, all the time, so was directly involved. The pound, on the gold standard, was 4/1. It halved, floated against the dollar, within hours--minutes, probably. That, on a smaller standard is what has happened in Europe and the US currency, because it is the major reserve currency, but is buying less, all the time, because the US borrowed more (and, still, does) and knew that it would, still stay strong because everyone would buy it at a low interest. with the other world currencies floating around it. This enabled the US to buy up worldwide companies and oil, on borrowed money. Work out how many UK companies have been bought out by US companies,since the UK was a part of the EU. even Manchester United, for Heaven's sake, and the US is not, exactly a footballing nation. With Trump in charge, don't hold your breath for any changes.

You can't blame the EU for this, cv.

Your comment about socialists I agree with, however. but that is, also, the fault of capitalism. Socialism is trying to put right, the damage that capitalism has done wrong. Your Jeremy is no good but his principles are fine. Unless you do something about it that works, the gap between poor and rich will continue to widen.

 

[sminicooper]

One for you CV

Interesting graph but as ever with economists (and especially the EU Tractor Stats HQ) you need to be very careful in case the figures presented have been given a slant ...... lies, damned lies, statistics and all that

If you look at that graph you can see that the countries with the most outstanding growth rates all have relatively small GDP e.g. Romania at 5.2% growth has a GDP of approximately $186.5 billion, Malta with GDP $10.4 billion has growth 4.1%; whereas Germany with a much lower and normal growth at 1.9% has a much larger GDP of $3494.9 billion. We all know that any quantity shown as a percentage of a relatively small base looks much better when presented this way – I wonder if this is what the EU has done (by accident? )

(GDP figures below = IMF estimates for 2016)
In comparison, USA has GDP $18561.9 billion with growth of 1.6% (on the EU stats) which doesn't compare too badly when you take into account its enormous GDP. On the other hand Japan with $4730.3 billion GDP and a growth of 0.7% compares very poorly with Germany. Overall I think it's important to note that the GDPs of the EU and United States are not vastly different and neither are there growth rates.

I don't suppose all the above shows anything that a competent economist couldn't dress up in another way, but it IMHO it does give lie to the old bit about "damned lies and statistics".

PS – if you like your stats there's some quite interesting stuff here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

 

[Atilla]

Interesting graph but as ever with economists (and especially the EU Tractor Stats HQ) you need to be very careful in case the figures presented have been given a slant ...... lies, damned lies, statistics and all that

If you look at that graph you can see that the countries with the most outstanding growth rates all have relatively small GDP e.g. Romania at 5.2% growth has a GDP of approximately $186.5 billion, Malta with GDP $10.4 billion has growth 4.1%; whereas Germany with a much lower and normal growth at 1.9% has a much larger GDP of $3494.9 billion. We all know that any quantity shown as a percentage of a relatively small base looks much better when presented this way – I wonder if this is what the EU has done (by accident? )

(GDP figures below = IMF estimates for 2016)
In comparison, USA has GDP $18561.9 billion with growth of 1.6% (on the EU stats) which doesn't compare too badly when you take into account its enormous GDP. On the other hand Japan with $4730.3 billion GDP and a growth of 0.7% compares very poorly with Germany. Overall I think it's important to note that the GDPs of the EU and United States are not vastly different and neither are there growth rates.

I don't suppose all the above shows anything that a competent economist couldn't dress up in another way, but it IMHO it does give lie to the old bit about "damned lies and statistics".

PS – if you like your stats there's some quite interesting stuff here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

Excellent points Mini and I agree. Once any continent gets to certain size increase in growth is smaller.

What people forget is the circular flow of money. Those little countries as their disposable incomes rise will be spending their monies predominantly in the EU.

It's not about the quantity of money in circulation but the velocity / frequency of money exchange between people. That's what consitutes economic activity the frequency of exchange of goods and services.

Capitalists are all about taking money away and keeping it and as the point has been made by Oxfam, when 8 people have the same level of wealth as 50% of the population, their future increase in wealth will ultimately slow down as marginal probability of making same returns simply not there as people no longer have any money left to spend unless, money is printed and debt is increased.

When one understand one persons expenditure is another persons income, one may get to proposing economic policies that can be sustained.

It is clear from those stats below that US and UK are on the wrong track and each are blaming factors such as migrant labour and/or globalisation.

I was a little surprised by TM's speech talking about social justice and corporate responsibility whilst offering up the UK isles as a safe haven to avoid paying tax. How does she tally this up in her head space? I'm sure it makes sense to some of you out there.

We are moving from COOPERATION to COMPETITION or in TM's and Bonkers Johnson's case one of ADVERSARY outright agressive combat in negotiations. Someone, should tell him the EU is not a prison and no one is keeping the UK in the EU against her will.

Just sign article 50 and leave.

I think the truth of the matter is when it all goes tits up they'll turn around and say we are being punished and ganged up on and play the victim role. It would have worked if they gave us what was fair in our headspace but they are simply against us.

 

[Atilla]

Here's a story you might be interested in

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-38650596

This is all about people having access to some truth and battling not only the corrupt EU, but also our own self serving elites. A good start on the road to direct democracy.

Enjoy !

http://www.westmonster.com/

That's all fine CV and I can see where this is going. In following pursuit for freedom of press and all that, all good and well. However, people will read stuff they already agree with and avoid sites that don't share their pov.

So we'll end up with polarisation of society. Not complaining here and I see it as only being right. I never like seeing women wearing black burkas as I used to cycle passed Bethnal Green on the way into the city. Look at them as **** roaches who don't belong here. I always used to wonder why leave the house. If God wanted women covered up, God would have made them all hairy or with feathers like real birds. These freaking men and women who know what God wants does my head in.

Agree with point 3. Other points I'm not sure about. However, how strongly will I have to feel about point 3 to follow with the other issues?

How poor do I have to be before going with the hope of more jobs and rising wages?


Hope it works out.

 

[mike.]

If God wanted women covered up, God would have made them all hairy or with feathers like real birds. These freaking men and women who know what God wants does my head in.

Now thats another thread in its self....Religion..makes my blood boil, How intelligent people can be so brainwashed.....i can feel my temp rising just thinking about it..

 

[counter_violent]

So before this all gets out of hand and the truth gets buried.

Consider this.

The richer EU countries subsidise the other members, of that there can be no doubt.

Therefore, these gdp figures by country are not just showing growth, ie goods/services/manufacturing etc, but a lot of this , so called gdp in developing economies, will be in infrastructure, which is one off by nature, the economic benefits of which will not be realised for many yrs. A slow conversion of state spending into real sustainable economic growth.

We saw all this happen in Spain and other countries obviously.

 

[Atilla]

So before this all gets out of hand and the truth gets buried.

Consider this.

The richer EU countries subsidise the other members, of that there can be no doubt.

Therefore, these gdp figures by country are not just showing growth, ie goods/services/manufacturing etc, but a lot of this , so called gdp will be in infrastructure, which is one off by nature, the economic benefits of which will not be realised for many yrs. A slow conversion of state spending into real sustainable economic growth.

We saw all this happen in Spain and other countries obviously.

They are showing increase in GDP effective measure of growth.

I don't understand your point. Goods and services or manufacturing all output measured in terms of;

GDProduct == GDExpenditure == GDIncome

Doesn't matter what you measure they should be all equal.

Are you asking the distribution of those numbers by industry, like building, agricultture or manufacturing. Either way doesn't matter. It's GDP growth in total per country.

What should be considered is per-capita of the population so it is a better reflection wrt individual productivity of labour force so to speak. That wouldn't however, tell you anything about inequitable distribution.

 

[counter_violent]

They are showing increase in GDP effective measure of growth.

I don't understand your point. Goods and services or manufacturing all output measured in terms of;

GDProduct == GDExpenditure == GDIncome

Doesn't matter what you measure they should be all equal.

Are you asking the distribution of those numbers by industry, like building, agricultture or manufacturing. Either way doesn't matter. It's GDP growth in total per country.

The point I'm making is dead simple.

Without the subsidy from the EU, developing economies would be performing far less well and already developed economies would be faring much better.

 

[mike.]

The point I'm making is dead simple.

Without the subsidy from the EU, developing economies would be performing far less well and already developed economies would be faring much better.

Also spare a thought for poor old Khalid Abdullah al Saud, Once EU farming subsidies are reviewed he's off to the food bank.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37493956

 

[Atilla]

The point I'm making is dead simple.

Without the subsidy from the EU, developing economies would be performing far less well and already developed economies would be faring much better.

Yes maybe for a while but you are missing the bigger picture as I mentioned before. It is not necessarily a subsidy but investment.

The MARGINAL RETURN is greater in the lesser developed regions and countries. Thus investing monies there and seeking greater returns makes economic sense.

M&S produces large quantities of clothing in Romania and Bulgaria as well as the far east. So we get to wear cheaper clothes and manufacturers make more money.

As wages increase in Romania and Bulgaria they in turn buy more cars and luxery items produced from other EU countries.


I'm afraid you are falling into the same false thinking by keeping wealth to one self is better than ensuring circulation of money.

In the UK we should be investing money in technology and writing code and building robots. That's where the future of technology lies with greater returns coming from consumer and industrial item sale and manufacture.

Then exporting that to rest of World and more particularly with easy access into the EU.



You and Tim seem to think our 9bn has supported the EU which is incorrect. Contributions are based on how big our economy is. Germany is the biggest contributer.

Maybe if UK wants to benefit from lower currency, then UK should join the Euro.

As Splitlink points out £1=$10 once but not many people remember or know that. Our decline is to do with how Britian thinks, acts and goes on about her business. Empire is long gone and wasted and TM is totally wrong with her view and presentation of her speech. Nice speech for the layman but honestly, doesn't wash with historical facts or our current situe or current global developments. US and UK stand alone in decline, barking about being GREAT on their own.

If you don't identify root cause, then solution will be all wrong.

 

[timsk]

Hi Atilla,

. . .In the UK we should be investing money in technology and writing code and building robots. That's where the future of technology lies with greater returns coming from consumer and industrial item sale and manufacture.

Agreed!
Take a look at this short video clip of an interview with Jim Mellon. It's clear that the reason we're pants at tech here in the U.K. and Europe compared to the U.S. is because of the EU.
Jim Mellon on the EU Referendum

. . . .You and Tim seem to think our 9bn has supported the EU which is incorrect. Contributions are based on how big our economy is. Germany is the biggest contributor.

If our £9 billion hasn't helped prop up the rest of the EU - then they won't miss it when we stop paying it!

. . . .Our decline is to do with how Britain thinks, acts and goes on about her business. Empire is long gone and wasted and TM is totally wrong with her view and presentation of her speech. Nice speech for the layman but honestly, doesn't wash with historical facts or our current situe or current global developments. US and UK stand alone in decline, barking about being GREAT on their own.

I agree in as much as the 'Britain being great again' is just political rhetoric that any PM of any hue would say in Mrs. May's shoes. However, the fact remains there are numerous countries that are outside the EU who do just fine and there's no logical reason why we can't be one of them. All TM is saying is that she believes Britain will be up there with the best of them - and I think she's right.

. . .If you don't identify root cause, then solution will be all wrong.

Agree again. Where we disagree strongly of course is what the root cause is and what to do about it. The referendum identified the former and the people - in their infinite wisdom - identified the latter!
Tim.

 

[dbphoenix]

Agree again. Where we disagree strongly of course is what the root cause is and what to do about it. The referendum identified the former and the people - in their infinite wisdom - identified the latter!
Tim.

If you believe that "the people" are infinitely wise, you're in trouble.

 

[Atilla]

Hi Atilla,

Agreed!
Take a look at this short video clip of an interview with Jim Mellon. It's clear that the reason we're pants at tech here in the U.K. and Europe compared to the U.S. is because of the EU.
Jim Mellon on the EU Referendum


If our £9 billion hasn't helped prop up the rest of the EU - then they won't miss it when we stop paying it!


I agree in as much as the 'Britain being great again' is just political rhetoric that any PM of any hue would say in Mrs. May's shoes. However, the fact remains there are numerous countries that are outside the EU who do just fine and there's no logical reason why we can't be one of them. All TM is saying is that she believes Britain will be up there with the best of them - and I think she's right.


Agree again. Where we disagree strongly of course is what the root cause is and what to do about it. The referendum identified the former and the people - in their infinite wisdom - identified the latter!
Tim.

Trial by the mob. Good one. Based on emotion as opposed to fact and evidence. Another good one.

In the words of one great action hero, you come right out of a cowboy movie.

 

[counter_violent]

Yes maybe for a while but you are missing the bigger picture as I mentioned before. It is not necessarily a subsidy but investment.

The MARGINAL RETURN is greater in the lesser developed regions and countries. Thus investing monies there and seeking greater returns makes economic sense.

M&S produces large quantities of clothing in Romania and Bulgaria as well as the far east. So we get to wear cheaper clothes and manufacturers make more money.

As wages increase in Romania and Bulgaria they in turn buy more cars and luxery items produced from other EU countries.


I'm afraid you are falling into the same false thinking by keeping wealth to one self is better than ensuring circulation of money.

In the UK we should be investing money in technology and writing code and building robots. That's where the future of technology lies with greater returns coming from consumer and industrial item sale and manufacture.

Then exporting that to rest of World and more particularly with easy access into the EU.



You and Tim seem to think our 9bn has supported the EU which is incorrect. Contributions are based on how big our economy is. Germany is the biggest contributer.

Maybe if UK wants to benefit from lower currency, then UK should join the Euro.

As Splitlink points out £1=$10 once but not many people remember or know that. Our decline is to do with how Britian thinks, acts and goes on about her business. Empire is long gone and wasted and TM is totally wrong with her view and presentation of her speech. Nice speech for the layman but honestly, doesn't wash with historical facts or our current situe or current global developments. US and UK stand alone in decline, barking about being GREAT on their own.

If you don't identify root cause, then solution will be all wrong.

I'm not missing any bigger picture

Not only do we subsidise everyone else, we then open up the country and let everyone in so we can be butt***kt twice over !

The mind boggles.

 

[timsk]

If you believe that "the people" are infinitely wise, you're in trouble.

Ha! Yes, in the main I agree dbp. However, with specific regard to the referendum, the people were wise enough to embrace the evidence and facts provided by the leave campaign - and reject the negative emotion of 'project fear' offered by the remain campaign - when making their decision on which way to vote.
Tim.

 

[dbphoenix]

Ha! Yes, in the main I agree dbp. However, with specific regard to the referendum, the people were wise enough to embrace the evidence and facts provided by the leave campaign - and reject the negative emotion of 'project fear' offered by the remain campaign - when making their decision on which way to vote.
Tim.

You appear to have it backwards.

As long as we fire at the wrong targets, the situation will never improve.