Brexit and the Consequences

Pat494 said:
What if Parliament votes to stay in ?



:LOL:
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Civil war? Or equivalent of.

Good point actually, the remoaners bang on about how there wasn't a plan in the case of Brexit. If the whole thing were to be overturned somehow then I wonder if there is a plan to cater for that scenario, because you can bet that there would be some fallout from that eventuality.
 
Probably a toss up whether Greece gets booted out or leaves. Followed by Italy, Spain etc.
The clots in Brussels just don't seem to be trying very hard.
 
What happens if Italy and France vote to remain in EU and keep the Euro along with Greece?

IDS says the same thing - if EU not prepared to compromise on the 4 freedoms then we are out and trading under WTO.

As simplicity goes that's all fine but the elephant in the room is City of London, 100,000 jobs and 77bn revenue just to the IR.

Passport licence and Equivalance has question marks over it. City is already on the move.


Let's think about this for one short minute. Nevermind, let's just get on with it. Brexit means Brexit. Carry on. (y)
 
So I know this is going to be a surprise to you lot but I am looking at buying euro.
 
Atilla said:
Interesting... :whistling

What's the trigger? Draghi supporting the banks :rolleyes:
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Supporting the banks was always a given. Their bail-in policy that was introduced in Jan still shows their commitment to saving banks. They want to keep the euro low because a stronger currency will hinder their recovery. Out of the top 5 biggest economies, 4 are showing a steady recovery with employment growth and wage growth in skilled and unskilled labour. Orders have been rising alongside consumer and business confidence . The only one of the 5 that breaks the trend is Italy although when compared over time, 2016 hasn't been the worst year although it brings risk into my plan.

Draghi met expectations with an extension but there was some confusion about it's interpretation. At least 3 news correspondents asked about tapering and Draghi said its not even been discussed! His language was harsh on the risks yet contradicting the little tit bits of info like recovery has been continuing, no immediate risks, repeatedly highlighted that the severe end of QE was just an option. The former head of Germany's central bank thinks they will halt it soon and he expects rates to start climbing by next September. in context to currency valuation well its at bargain prices considering the potential for this all to be priced in.

Now mix in the USA which is recovering and will have a growing demand for EU goods. Further mix in what looks like higher oil prices. China is showing signs of recovery and as all these interconnected relationships pickup, so is the EU (at least from these lows).

So yes i am seeing an opportunity develop for sure.
 
forker said:
Supporting the banks was always a given. Their bail-in policy that was introduced in Jan still shows their commitment to saving banks. They want to keep the euro low because a stronger currency will hinder their recovery. Out of the top 5 biggest economies, 4 are showing a steady recovery with employment growth and wage growth in skilled and unskilled labour. Orders have been rising alongside consumer and business confidence . The only one of the 5 that breaks the trend is Italy although when compared over time, 2016 hasn't been the worst year although it brings risk into my plan.

Draghi met expectations with an extension but there was some confusion about it's interpretation. At least 3 news correspondents asked about tapering and Draghi said its not even been discussed! His language was harsh on the risks yet contradicting the little tit bits of info like recovery has been continuing, no immediate risks, repeatedly highlighted that the severe end of QE was just an option. The former head of Germany's central bank thinks they will halt it soon and he expects rates to start climbing by next September. in context to currency valuation well its at bargain prices considering the potential for this all to be priced in.

Now mix in the USA which is recovering and will have a growing demand for EU goods. Further mix in what looks like higher oil prices. China is showing signs of recovery and as all these interconnected relationships pickup, so is the EU (at least from these lows).

So yes i am seeing an opportunity develop for sure.
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I concur the moves on Euro over done and talk of brake up way too premature, and improbable. France, Italy and other countries will opt to stay in EU membership. Thus euro will strengthen in long run imho.

On macro level, I don't have much faith in the global recovery which is just supported by monetary policy; QE and low interest rates, which don't work well on their own.

Europe, USA and UK really have to spend on infrastructure projects instead of just applying loose monetary policy. Carney has made the same point. Until then I don't think we'll get real growth.

(y)
 
Infrastructure projects cost money and not many have surplus or a debt to gdp ratio that isn't knocking on the door marked 100%. What needs to happen is the wage gap needs to get fixed to give people more money to spend. All the rich do is shift wealth outside the economy.

The global recovery is starting to take shape. I don't seen any data that suggests its getting any worse but there are signs of recovery. You only need to look at commodities to see the shoots. China sells to the world and China is picking up in manufacturing.
 
forker said:
Infrastructure projects cost money and not many have surplus or a debt to gdp ratio that isn't knocking on the door marked 100%. What needs to happen is the wage gap needs to get fixed to give people more money to spend. All the rich do is shift wealth outside the economy.

The global recovery is starting to take shape. I don't seen any data that suggests its getting any worse but there are signs of recovery. You only need to look at commodities to see the shoots. China sells to the world and China is picking up in manufacturing.
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Wage growth is not happening.

We have a problem with productivity and I would add other countries to that list. We are more likely to see automation and higher unemployment.

Without raising taxation debt can not be paid back. Reducing taxation to corporates and well off is just daft policy imo, considering levels of budget defecits and debt we and the West have.
 
Atilla said:
Wage growth is not happening.

We have a problem with productivity and I would add other countries to that list. We are more likely to see automation and higher unemployment.

Without raising taxation debt can not be paid back. Reducing taxation to corporates and well off is just daft policy imo, considering levels of budget defecits and debt we and the West have.
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I was not including the uk
 
forker said:
I was not including the uk
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The fiscal policy infrastructure stimulus applies to the EU and US. Monetary policy has reached its limits and whether Global growth is sustainable is uncertain imo.

When you say commodities are rising which do you mean; metals, energy or livestock? Oil and Gold still depressed and oil is not out the woods just yet?
 
The wage gap won't be reduced as long as there will be a working wage, it just puts more people onto the same level of wage gap and provides less incentive for workers to try and move away from it.
 
Signalcalc said:
The wage gap won't be reduced as long as there will be a working wage, it just puts more people onto the same level of wage gap and provides less incentive for workers to try and move away from it.
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How do you envisage reducing the wage gap?

What would you suggest?
 
Atilla said:
How do you envisage reducing the wage gap?



What would you suggest?
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I think that governments will have some difficult decision making to make regarding social policies in the future. The pace of technical innovation and growth in human population is an interesting friction point to tackle.

I don't think we have enough data yet to be able to work on a long term solution. Ideas that are implemented now are young in their formation, there are no easy answers.
 
Signalcalc said:
I think that governments will have some difficult decision making to make regarding social policies in the future. The pace of technical innovation and growth in human population is an interesting friction point to tackle.

I don't think we have enough data yet to be able to work on a long term solution. Ideas that are implemented now are young in their formation, there are no easy answers.
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I'm confused as I thought you were suggesting scrapping minimum or working wage because it somehow puts people on same level of wage gap and provides less incentive for workers to get ahead. :rolleyes:
 
I want suggesting anything! My view is that in order to accommodate increases in the level of working wage then employers will not reduce profits. At the same time as being forced to supply more money to those already on working wage they will also subtly shift more roles away from higher paying roles to be on the the working wage. Those roles that had higher responsibility and correspondingly higher wages will no longer exist and there will be less incentive for these workers to be any more than anyone else on the same working wage level.

Those roles that still pay higher will be fewer and will cover more responsibilities. This has been happening for years already.

The mass of workers on working wage increases, those at the top reduce for sure, but the wage gap has increased as those not on the minimum wage demand higher wages because of increased responsibility.

Not really reducing the wage gap is it?
 
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