Brexit and the Consequences

[Signalcalc]

Yes, it’s the default alright but it’s the thing they don’t want most (nor do the EU) so they’ll do all they can to avoid it - either cobble the May deal or delay. You want to listen to your boss man, JRM, whom you hold in such high regard. He is going to vote for the May deal (if DUP come in line or, at least, stand on the sidelines) precisely because he no longer thinks that no deal (his preferred option) is possible. He’d prefer the May deal to get the show on the road even though he doesn’t like it.

Under what circumstances would the DUP vote to unite the island of Ireland? None! I very much doubt they would even abstain. The only way you could remove them from the equation is by calling a GE and removing them from power.

Tories aren’t going to take that risk, whoever wins next GE would be forming a minority govt and would most likely have to go into coalition with UKIP or the Brexit party [emoji23]

 

[timsk]

They voted against your desired outcome as well so, they’ve voted not to leave without a deal and they’ve voted against every deal that anyone could dream up. Big success for them “taking control” that, they must be as proud as punch.

Never mind, the EU will help us out and concoct a form of words that makes the backstop more palatable to the DUP (that and few more sweetners), then they’ll support May and so will enough others. Easy easy, it was May’s all along

Jon is right on the money with his assessment of the situation and I'm sorry to say c_v that you're setting yourself up for massive disappointment if you still think leaving on 12th April with no-deal is on the cards. It isn't, and the fact that it's the default legal position is a minor technicality that parliament can easily overcome at the eleventh hour if they have to. Ditto for overcoming Bercow's objection. I don't know what odds the bookies are offering but, sadly, May's deal must be the out 'n out favourite now. The best any of us can hope for is a general election or another referendum. I'll happily take either option in preference to May's deal.

As an aside, can anyone tell me why May's lousy deal becomes sufficiently palatable for MPs to back it on the condition that she steps down? I don't get it. Sure, I can see why Boris and anyone else with their eye on her job might do that - but why the others? Sure, we're all shot of her, but we end up committing ourselves to a bad deal which, surely, is bad regardless of who is PM? Or does it magically become better if May's no longer at the helm? And what of the subsequent negotiations about our future trading relationship with the EU if she's replaced by an arch remainer who doesn't even pay lip service to Brexiteers? This time next year we might all be wishing she was still in post. Isn't that a scary thought!
Tim.

 

[barjon]

Lets just apply some logic here. Bearing in mind, none of these options were voted for.

Motion (M) Confirmatory public vote ​

For: 268 (Against: 295)​

Motion (J) Customs Union​

For: 264 (Against: 272)​

Motion (K) Labour’s alternative plan​

For: 237 (Against: 307)​

Motion (D): Common market 2.0​

For: 188 (Against: 283)​

Motion (L) Revocation to avoid no deal​

For: 184 (Against: 293)​

Motion (B): No deal​

For: 160 (Against: 400)​

Motion (O) Contingent preferential arrangements​

For: 139 (Against: 422)​

Motion (H) EFTA and EEA​

For: 65 (Against: 377)​

Motion M is MP's copping out by suggesting that the public should sign off on any deal passed by parliament. Not just May's deal, but any deal.
Motion J is remainer MP's, who have a natural built in majority in the house, failing to back this motion because they know it goes against the UK's ability to make independent trade deals, on top of which, we just become rule takers and have to abide by ongoing EU law.
Motion K is Labour's wishy washy non EU leaving customs union and close ties to single market. It's just total nonsense....it's not leaving and it's not Brexit!
Motion D is the same as motion K. Non starter for the same reasons.
Motion H No support for it. Dead in the water.
Motion L If this was passed there would be instant riots across Britain.

Motions B and O Which have the highest votes against. The reason for this is very simple to understand. MP's registering their votes in these categories so that when the day of reckoning comes, they can point to the fact that NO DEAL came about but they voted against it. These Two categories are a stunt aimed at the dumb electorate who believe what MP's and political parties tell them. It's the politician's excuse equivalent of a delinquent teenager telling the teacher "sorry miss, the dog ate my homework"

Well, your man JRM clearly doesn’t share your logic.

 

[counter_violent]

Yes, it’s the default alright but it’s the thing they don’t want most (nor do the EU) so they’ll do all they can to avoid it - either cobble the May deal or delay. You want to listen to your boss man, JRM, whom you hold in such high regard. He is going to vote for the May deal (if DUP come in line or, at least, stand on the sidelines) precisely because he no longer thinks that no deal (his preferred option) is possible. He’d prefer the May deal to get the show on the road even though he doesn’t like it.

The DUP aren't going to vote for May's deal, therefore neither is Mogg and significant other members of the ERG.

So instead of of telling us what we already know, how about telling us how we realistically get a withdrawal deal passed?

FWIW I foresee even more chaos which will result in a GE, where the main parties can set out once again how the UK moves forward.

Meanwhile, the clock is ticking, the EU will be getting even more frustrated with elections looming.

 

[counter_violent]

Jon is right on the money with his assessment of the situation and I'm sorry to say c_v that you're setting yourself up for massive disappointment if you still think leaving on 12th April with no-deal is on the cards. It isn't, and the fact that it's the default legal position is a minor technicality that parliament can easily overcome at the eleventh hour if they have to. Ditto for overcoming Bercow's objection. I don't know what odds the bookies are offering but, sadly, May's deal must be the out 'n out favourite now. The best any of us can hope for is a general election or another referendum. I'll happily take either option in preference to May's deal.

As an aside, can anyone tell me why May's lousy deal becomes sufficiently palatable for MPs to back it on the condition that she steps down? I don't get it. Sure, I can see why Boris and anyone else with their eye on her job might do that - but why the others? Sure, we're all shot of her, but we end up committing ourselves to a bad deal which, surely, is bad regardless of who is PM? Or does it magically become better if May's no longer at the helm? And what of the subsequent negotiations about our future trading relationship with the EU if she's replaced by an arch remainer who doesn't even pay lip service to Brexiteers? This time next year we might all be wishing she was still in post. Isn't that a scary thought!
Tim.

Tim, I won't be disappointed because I understand the default position. So, same question to you as asked of Jon, how do we realistically get a withdrawal deal passed?

 

[barjon]

Tim, I won't be disappointed because I understand the default position. So, same question to you as asked of Jon, how do we realistically get a withdrawal deal passed?

I don’t know why you should think you’re the only one to understand the default position. Obviously it doesn’t apply if there is a deal but, otherwise, the rider is that it doesn’t apply if article 50 is revoked (uk can do this alone) or extended (needs EU agreement). According to JRM in his interview with Peston last night he will support May’s deal (subject to DUP) because he’s mainly changed his mind about the possibility of no deal (his preferred option) because of the delay to the 29 March exit date. Presumably he fears and understands that politicians will manoeuvre to keep delaying until a deal is reached or the pressure for a public vote and possible revocation becomes too great. He just wants to gyet the show on the road without further delay and get going with the phase 2 negotiations.

 

[counter_violent]

I don’t know why you should think you’re the only one to understand the default position. Obviously it doesn’t apply if there is a deal but, otherwise, the rider is that it doesn’t apply if article 50 is revoked (uk can do this alone) or extended (needs EU agreement). According to JRM in his interview with Peston last night he will support May’s deal (subject to DUP) because he’s mainly changed his mind about the possibility of no deal (his preferred option) because of the delay to the 29 March exit date. Presumably he fears and understands that politicians will manoeuvre to keep delaying until a deal is reached or the pressure for a public vote and possible revocation becomes too great. He just wants to gyet the show on the road without further delay and get going with the phase 2 negotiations.

It doesn't matter what he says he wants. How does the UK get a withdrawal deal passed?

Have you looked at the comments coming out of Brussels?
Have you looked at the currency charts today?

 

[barjon]

It doesn't matter what he says he wants. How does the UK get a withdrawal deal passed?

Have you looked at the comments coming out of Brussels?
Have you looked at the currency charts today?

You don’t really listen to what’s being said do you? The question in his mind is not yours but, “how do you get no deal in the face of delay”

 

[counter_violent]

You don’t really listen to what’s being said do you? The question in his mind is not yours but, “how do you get no deal in the face of delay”

What delay?

Any delay would have to be voted on in parliament and this presupposes that the EU are minded to pass off any such delay. In the mean time, unless a withdrawal agreement is passed and no further extension is sought or granted, then the default position is still that we leave with No Deal.

 

[timsk]

Tim, I won't be disappointed because I understand the default position. So, same question to you as asked of Jon, how do we realistically get a withdrawal deal passed?

Hi c_v,
May's deal will be put before parliament tomorrow and I'd be very surprised if it doesn't get passed. In the unlikely event that it fails for a third time, then MPs will try again on Monday to coalesce around Ken Clarke's or Margaret Beckets's proposals (which were narrowly defeated yesterday). One of those three is sure to get the backing of MPs between now and the 12th April. The simple fact is that ensuring we either don't leave at all or, if we must leave, that we do so with some sort of deal - are about the only things that the majority of MPs agree on. Ergo, slice 'n dice every which way, there's zero chance of us leaving on a no-deal basis.
Tim.

 

[barjon]

What delay?

Any delay would have to be voted on in parliament and this presupposes that the EU are minded to pass off any such delay. In the mean time, unless a withdrawal agreement is passed and no further extension is sought or granted, then the default position is still that we leave with No Deal.

Well the EU didn’t need much prodding to agree the first one did they? And with MPs heavily against no deal do you seriously believe they won’t vote for another (and another) delay to avoid it?

And you never did say anything about JRM - has he gone from hero to zero in your eyes.? Or does he still talk the best sense of all of them?

 

[0007]

Well the EU didn’t need much prodding to agree the first one did they? And with MPs heavily against no deal do you seriously believe they won’t vote for another (and another) delay to avoid it?

And you never did say anything about JRM - has he gone from hero to zero in your eyes.? Or does he still talk the best sense of all of them?

I was somewhat surprised by JRM's comments – presumably he was taking a pragmatic view but I note he was careful to caveat it with the DUP restriction. Despite his and anybody else's comments, a bad deal reinforced by legally binding international treaty obligation is still a bad deal – regardless of who is PM. (pigs & lipstick and all that)

It's looking like no deal, general election or both.

 

[counter_violent]

Well the EU didn’t need much prodding to agree the first one did they? And with MPs heavily against no deal do you seriously believe they won’t vote for another (and another) delay to avoid it?

And you never did say anything about JRM - has he gone from hero to zero in your eyes.? Or does he still talk the best sense of all of them?

JRM is being pragmatic which I believe is entirely consistent. In any event and whoever is left standing at the end of the Brexit fallout, the UK still needs to be governed. Those that are left standing will have to take the process forward.

I think you are in danger here of overstating the EU's patience, the UK parliament's ability to carry on kicking the can, the UK public's anger and patience with the whole shambolic process. At some point, enough will be enough, something has to snap.

The Europeans are not amused.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47732993

 

[0007]

..............

 

[counter_violent]

Can parliament get any more crazy. You betcha!

So after May's defeat again tomorrow on Meaningless Vote 2.5, we go into headless chicken mode as MP's continue with the indicative vote process on Monday. The Govt has to go back to Brussels at some point with a different proposal, before April 12th, to request a long extension.
Farage and Leave means Leave will get busy preparing for EU MEP elections. Tory and Labour will be decimated at these elections and we then march into the EU parliament alongside the other member countries anti EU MEP's where we will collectively create a special kind of hell for the EU and it's presidents.
Or, we leave with No Deal, or the EU kicks us out with No Deal. And who could blame them

 

[NVP]

are we there yet ......?

 

[NVP]

Can parliament get any more crazy. You betcha!

So after May's defeat again tomorrow on Meaningless Vote 2.5, we go into headless chicken mode as MP's continue with the indicative vote process on Monday. The Govt has to go back to Brussels at some point with a different proposal, before April 12th, to request a long extension.
Farage and Leave means Leave will get busy preparing for EU MEP elections. Tory and Labour will be decimated at these elections and we then march into the EU parliament alongside the other member countries anti EU MEP's where we will collectively create a special kind of hell for the EU and it's presidents.
Or, we leave with No Deal, or the EU kicks us out with No Deal. And who could blame them

agreed..............the EU really really must want us to stay (durr) .......otherwise we would have already had the door shown to us

N

 

[NVP]

if we can actually delay this stuff until into the EU elections .....we should be able to get a better deal as they will be weakened by the inevitable results that will be coming regarding more and more challenged fragmentation of the EU model

 

[timsk]

Ms. Hartley-Brewer telling it like it is . . .

 

[barjon]

if we can actually delay this stuff until into the EU elections .....we should be able to get a better deal as they will be weakened by the inevitable results that will be coming regarding more and more challenged fragmentation of the EU model

I would have thought that our political chaos would make any leader abandon even the most idle thought about following us out of the door.

The EU must be delighted to see it and far from Brexit presaging a breakdown of “the project” it’s probably strengenthed it immeasurably.