Brexit and the Consequences

sterling was a peach tonight ......nice selloff then a steady recovery over last 2 hours

god bless volatility ..........
 
Oscar Reed said:
Right time and right place.

https://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-corbyn-could-be-prime-minister-by-christmas-11566304
Click to expand...

Corbyn lives in a dream world. Brits ain't stupid enough to ever put him in charge and it's clear for all to see that Labour are just as split on Brexit as the Tories. I expect the no confidence vote will fail and Mays punishment will be to continue battling the EU until we get a satisfactory deal or no deal. A second referendum is just as dead as Mays insane deal.

The whole political scene is in turmoil, as they have all been found out since people power took off. People are in the driving seat and politicians hate it, but it's great entertainment watching them all squirm. It's particularly amusing that they are trying to reach a consensus by trying to knit together tribal groups that have found their voices. That is never going to happen....positions are still hardening and no one is prepared to compromise or budge an inch.
 
counter_violent said:
. . . I expect the no confidence vote will fail and Mays punishment will be to continue battling the EU until we get a satisfactory deal or no deal. A second referendum is just as dead as Mays insane deal. . .
Click to expand...
Hi c_v,
I agree with you about the outcome of the no confidence vote this evening, but I'm afraid I disagree with you on all three Brexit outcomes. Rare, but it happens!
1. A Satisfactory Deal
Your view about what constitutes 'satisfactory' and Parliament's view is - I suspect - rather different. All that has to happen for yesterday's defeat to be reversed is for Mrs. May and the EU to agree to ditch the backstop. If they can achieve that, then even Jacob Rees-Mogg has hinted he would approve it. A major stumbling block for sure, but it's the only one to be overcome for her deal to get Parliamentary approval. Probably!
2. No Deal
If there's one thing that Parliament dislikes even more than the deal voted on last night - it's no deal. I fear that's dead in the water. I know, I know, it's the default position if no withdrawal agreement is reached, BUT, MPs will do anything - including changing the law if necessary - to ensure that it doesn't happen. I believe many of them would even sacrifice their own political careers to stop no deal.
3. A Second Referendum
Calls for this continue to gain traction. If it's conducted fairly according to protocols agreed in advance by both leavers and remainers - it could provide a solution to the whole conundrum. Even Nigel Farage accepts that. There's talk of circa 100 labour MPs putting pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to make a second referendum official Labour Party policy. Once he realises there's no prospect of a having a general election - I think he will agree to it. From MPs points of view, it's something they can unite around and it kind of lets them off the hook of having to solve the Brexit puzzle themselves. Like you, I don't want one, but I'd sooner we took our chances there than run the risk of a tweaked version of Mrs. May's BRINO trap somehow getting past Parliament.
Tim.
 
timsk said:
Hi c_v,
I agree with you about the outcome of the no confidence vote this evening, but I'm afraid I disagree with you on all three Brexit outcomes. Rare, but it happens!
1. A Satisfactory Deal
Your view about what constitutes 'satisfactory' and Parliament's view is - I suspect - rather different. All that has to happen for yesterday's defeat to be reversed is for Mrs. May and the EU to agree to ditch the backstop. If they can achieve that, then even Jacob Rees-Mogg has hinted he would approve it. A major stumbling block for sure, but it's the only one to be overcome for her deal to get Parliamentary approval. Probably!
2. No Deal
If there's one thing that Parliament dislikes even more than the deal voted on last night - it's no deal. I fear that's dead in the water. I know, I know, it's the default position if no withdrawal agreement is reached, BUT, MPs will do anything - including changing the law if necessary - to ensure that it doesn't happen. I believe many of them would even sacrifice their own political careers to stop no deal.
3. A Second Referendum
Calls for this continue to gain traction. If it's conducted fairly according to protocols agreed in advance by both leavers and remainers - it could provide a solution to the whole conundrum. Even Nigel Farage accepts that. There's talk of circa 100 labour MPs putting pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to make a second referendum official Labour Party policy. Once he realises there's no prospect of a having a general election - I think he will agree to it. From MPs points of view, it's something they can unite around and it kind of lets them off the hook of having to solve the Brexit puzzle themselves. Like you, I don't want one, but I'd sooner we took our chances there than run the risk of a tweaked version of Mrs. May's BRINO trap somehow getting past Parliament.
Tim.
Click to expand...

Tim

Seems to me that positions are so entrenched that they might abrogate responsibility and push for a second referendum. Mind you, given the shock they got last time, it might be pie in the sky to think that “no deal” would have no chance :)
 
My theory is that the Tories will make noises about 'negotiating' with Labour (and visa versa) to run the clock down to the point where the EU will have to make a move of some sort to prevent no deal. Tories negotiating with Labour looks like a repeat of Tories negotiating with the EU, it's going to go nowhere. No second referendum, no delaying art 50 all the play will be to try and force the EU to make a move, it seems the ball is firmly in their court now.

If it ends at no-deal then Tories and Labour will be able to blame each other equally.
 
Signalcalc said:
My theory is that the Tories will make noises about 'negotiating' with Labour (and visa versa) to run the clock down to the point where the EU will have to make a move of some sort to prevent no deal. Tories negotiating with Labour looks like a repeat of Tories negotiating with the EU, it's going to go nowhere. No second referendum, no delaying art 50 all the play will be to try and force the EU to make a move, it seems the ball is firmly in their court now.

If it ends at no-deal then Tories and Labour will be able to blame each other equally.
Click to expand...

Those are my thoughts also.

Corbyn straight after the vote said " the PM needs to take No Deal off the table before Labour will consider talks". Is he completely stark raving bonkers ! He knows only too well that parliament has already agreed and voted through the default position, which is No Deal in the event that a deal cannot be reached with the EU. He simply can't say that he wants No Deal ruled out because unless there is a deal passed by parliament, then the talks backstop is No Deal. He's just a contemptuous oik who clearly doesn't have the countries interests in mind when all he does is mindless moronic politicking.

Meanwhile, the EU are finally waking up to the fact that No Deal is really going to hurt them, not only economically, but in the ballot box too.

TM is just a complete fekkin idiot. She should have banged the No Deal drum on day One as the starting point for any negotiated settlement.
 
So this is what the strong and stable leadership has come to???

The whole country is lost in a bunch of lies and deceits that CAN NOT be delivered!

Elections pretty much ruled out now. If the referendum is ducked then a hard Brexit with the UK crashing out of the EU becomes ultimate conclusion.

Don't see what postponing article 50 will do as no matter what withdrawal deal is agreed it's going to be more pain uncertainty and pie in the sky.

Prepare for 2nd referendum!


Hopefully, without the Cambridge Analytica targetting floaters who don't have a clue, mind bending their grievances and if students get out to vote instead of scratching their lower heads this daft period come to an end with the Eurosceptics laid to rest for another decade or two. (y)
 
At least with a no deal the UK can start again vis a vis the EU with a clean sheet to spend the next X years negotiating a trade deal.
No 40 billion exit tax either.
 
counter_violent said:
.......Meanwhile, the EU are finally waking up to the fact that No Deal is really going to hurt them, not only economically, but in the ballot box too.....

.
Click to expand...

Yes, the “they need us more than we need them” fantasy that was David Davis’ default position which had him sitting on his hands waiting for them to come crawling to him for a deal. That worked out well.
 
Pat494 said:
At least with a no deal the UK can start again vis a vis the EU with a clean sheet to spend the next X years negotiating a trade deal.
No 40 billion exit tax either.
Click to expand...

That's a do nothing fallacy with a lot of pain to millions. Pensioners who don't have much to lose along with the desenfranchised bodies are not helping the complex predicament country finds her self in.

Scratch 40 plus years of integration for what purpose?

Rules and regs cut n pasted.
Parliament has no control.
UK crashed out.
Paying Han over fist sorting mess out.


Words are cheap.
 
barjon said:
Yes, the “they need us more than we need them” fantasy that was David Davis’ default position which had him sitting on his hands waiting for them to come crawling to him for a deal. That worked out well.
Click to expand...

The same David Davis who was blocked at every turn by the duplicitous May, which so far has resulted in half of her party deserting her and losing the withdrawal deal vote by the largest margin in parliamentary history.

May fits the bill, a classic example of the Peter Principle at work. Nay, it's worse than that, as Home Sec she was out of her depth and then the establishment promoted her again. o_O
 
counter_violent said:
The same David Davis who was blocked at every turn by the duplicitous May, which so far has resulted in half of her party deserting her and losing the withdrawal deal vote by the largest margin in parliamentary history.

May fits the bill, a classic example of the Peter Principle at work. Nay, it's worse than that, as Home Sec she was out of her depth and then the establishment promoted her again. o_O
Click to expand...

Well TM took over because DD got absolutely nowhere. Incompetent replaced useless - what a fiasco.
 
barjon said:
Well TM took over because DD got absolutely nowhere. Incompetent replaced useless - what a fiasco.
Click to expand...

To the best of my knowledge that is not how the situation was. DD was deliberately sidelined by Theresa May through the use of her Remain-directed civil servant Ollie Robbins. Thus DD was continually being undermined and unable to make any kind of progress. That is why he eventually resigned. He has given accounts of this, but being one of the few remaining decent politicians with a sense of responsibility and integrity he has never gone down the road of trashing the PM – his words have always been that they disagree on policy, that she is a good and decent person, and as she is the Chief his appropriate course was to resign.

DD has given good analysis of where the negotiations were wrongfooted right from the start and the way he would have approached it had he been given a totally free hand. If the Conservatives had selected DD instead of Cameron (smooth talking & got us into this mess in the 1st place) things could have been very different now.
 
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