mike.
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well, parliament doesn't recognise a peoples vote per se, It will have to be a second referendum, Then there are the standard procedures to go through just like the last referendum i.e. written into law blah blah.. Next hurdle is the P.M, she says no second referendum, so changing her mind wont be easy, can you see where this is heading time-wise ? Just to add one extra hurdle, should legislation be introduced the day parliament returned from the party conference recess on 9th October, the earliest Thursday on which a referendum could possibly be held would be 28th March... i.e. the day before we leave !!
I understand there is a case before the ECJ trying to extend/reverse article 50 soon, but the clock is certainly ticking....
I understand there is a case before the ECJ trying to extend/reverse article 50 soon, but the clock is certainly ticking....
There should be no more referendums, but if we're forced to have one, it cannot include an outcome which is the opposite of the recent referendum - all this option would do would be to confirm that whatever the people's vote the MP's will do what they wish. So, who's to say if we had a second Brexit referendum and Remain won, there wouldn't be a third, then a fourth and so on?
The trouble with having a general election instead of a single issue referendum is that you might vote a government in on the single issue close to your heart and then find you hate what they do on everything else, so tactical voting and/or abstaining and/or campaigning for a referendum on everything become the best solutions. Not a recipe for stronger democratic leadership.
All in all, I'd rather MP's took responsibility for their decisions to enact our preferences -and they pay with their jobs if they do a bad job.
The trouble with having a general election instead of a single issue referendum is that you might vote a government in on the single issue close to your heart and then find you hate what they do on everything else, so tactical voting and/or abstaining and/or campaigning for a referendum on everything become the best solutions. Not a recipe for stronger democratic leadership.
All in all, I'd rather MP's took responsibility for their decisions to enact our preferences -and they pay with their jobs if they do a bad job.
Atilla
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Isn't this the big wheel going round and round with all the lil hamsters getting an exercise in democracy.
So called experts like Moggy talk about EU turning referendum votes and rejecting peoples voices is turning out to be a lot of rubbish promoted by same poiticians who start the ball rolling but who later find outcome is a lot more complicated or other than what they promised.
So people realise they've been hood winked and what they have is really so much better than the lies they have been promised. Much like the 350m p/w to the NHS.
It's not that EU has over turned local national referendum or votes on each countries membership but the actual democratic processes of those countries eventually kicked in and people realised the errors of their ways.
We are now seeing the prime example of that playing out in our house with the Brexit fiasco. Situation is far more complex than any simple exit.
If it is a simple exit as switching to WTO rules and the rest with our financial sector and all our integrated markets then what's the bovver.
Boris, Gove and Moggy ****sters have a lot to answer for. Then we have our key EU negotiator quit right at the start because he is not listened to. Cabinet and politicians know better than experts.
Once we turn back from the brink of mega disaster, those same slimey dastardlies will trumpet EU has done all this and manipulated us all to get the vote it wants. Lalaalalalalaaa blahahahahaha blah blah...
Stupid referendum. Clever politicians. Manipulated people.
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Signalcalc
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What we are seeing is angry globalists, angry at UKGov cos they thought they were onside, as it turns out, the Tories are in as much disarray as Labour would be at this stage of the game.
Clever referendum. Manipulated politicians. Stupid people.
Clever referendum. Manipulated politicians. Stupid people.
counter_violent
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timsk
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Thanks for your comments folks on my People's Vote post. I'm in the process of doing more research on this and will post my thoughts in due course.
I think the term 'People's Vote' (PV) is just another way of saying second referendum, i.e. for all intents and purposes they're one and the same. I think those in favour of one are using the term PV to distinguish it from the 2016 referendum, in order to give the impression that it's something different and new. Whilst I'm sure you're correct in saying there are many hurdles to overcome for a PV to be held, support for the idea is clearly building. Witness last night's news showing the rally in Liverpool and the topic being debated at the Labour Party conference. My view is that the government will be forced to go back to the people before 29th March next year - either via a PV or a general election. Personally, I don't want either but, if I had to choose between the two, I'd opt for the latter. I suspect Mrs. May would prefer the former - given what happened to her at the last election. From her perspective, a PV would take the focus away from her and the Tories; she gets to remain as PM and the Tories stay in power. So, all in all, I think the prospect of a PV of some sort is becoming increasing probable.
Tim.
Hi Mike,
I think the term 'People's Vote' (PV) is just another way of saying second referendum, i.e. for all intents and purposes they're one and the same. I think those in favour of one are using the term PV to distinguish it from the 2016 referendum, in order to give the impression that it's something different and new. Whilst I'm sure you're correct in saying there are many hurdles to overcome for a PV to be held, support for the idea is clearly building. Witness last night's news showing the rally in Liverpool and the topic being debated at the Labour Party conference. My view is that the government will be forced to go back to the people before 29th March next year - either via a PV or a general election. Personally, I don't want either but, if I had to choose between the two, I'd opt for the latter. I suspect Mrs. May would prefer the former - given what happened to her at the last election. From her perspective, a PV would take the focus away from her and the Tories; she gets to remain as PM and the Tories stay in power. So, all in all, I think the prospect of a PV of some sort is becoming increasing probable.
Tim.
Signalcalc
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I, with a cynical eye, would say that the whole debacle is contrived. Who funds the idea of a second referendum? Who supports it? Who wants it to happen, who wants to keep us in the EU? Why the sudden back-biting, hard talk between the Tories and the EU in the week leading up to conference time?
The Chequers deal is nothing to do with making a deal, it is an Olly Robbins lead ploy to force another referendum - produce a poor choice of either a crap deal that no-one wants or no-deal that no-one* wants, the EU already agreed to push back really hard on Chequers, just as conference season gets underway, why wait until conference season when they had all summer to do it? Lots of MSM coverage from conference season on the second vote idea, Labour turns, the Tories capitulate, the EU sit back in smug satisfaction as we delay article 50 and go for the 'people's vote'
It's just a big game and we are being played.
*Correct myself - no remainer want's 'no-deal', except that no-deal is a deal on WTO terms, most Brexiteers are happy with WTO.
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sminicooper
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Agree with that. Theresa's chief civil service adviser (Olly Robbins aka Sir Humphrey Appleby) has connived to bring this about with I suspect, her connivance also. It would seem that last week the EU overplayed their hand somewhat. They (Olly & Theresa) are playing with fire. If this all ends up with a general election – which is looking like an increasing possibility – the consequences could be dire. Once McDonnell introduces Soviet Britain our problems with Brexit will look quite trivial in comparison.
The Conservative party appears to have a death wish. If Corbyn and some of his ilk could only learn to keep their gobs shut they would be in with a chance.
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timsk
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Hi Sig',
As you say, a cynics view - but one that I too can sympathize with.
sminicooper's post above is another reason why I think a People's Vote is more probable than a general election. Even Mrs. May's fiercest critics (within the Tory party) would rather retain her as PM than risk losing an election and letting Jeremy Corbyn into No. 10. The way I see it, the odds on having a PV are short, whereas the odds on a general election are long.
Tim.
sminicooper
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A People's Vote would destroy the dwindling credibility that the PM still has – she has unambiguously stated that there will be no 2nd referendum (which of course is all that the People's vote is). Even that well-known trustworthy and honest broker Peter Mandelson who campaigns publicly for a 2nd referendum is, I am told, privately advising that there will not be one.
Despite Remainer propaganda that the public mood has now changed in favour of a 2nd referendum, the neutral and well-respected psephologist John Curtice has shown that there has not been any significant change. Without even being able to frame a proper question the People's Vote is doomed to failure – hence my expectation that it would have to be a general election. But the Conservatives are unlikely to agree to that because it will either result in Corbyn, or Theresa for evermore – wouldn't she just love to be Head Girl for the duration!
Until a modern day Churchill steps forward we are basically stuffed. (And to save my old mate Atilla's fingers on the keyboard - I don't think that would be Vince Cable :cheesy
Signalcalc
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A People's Vote would destroy the dwindling credibility that the PM still has – she has unambiguously stated that there will be no 2nd referendum (which of course is all that the People's vote is). Even that well-known trustworthy and honest broker Peter Mandelson who campaigns publicly for a 2nd referendum is, I am told, privately advising that there will not be one.
Despite Remainer propaganda that the public mood has now changed in favour of a 2nd referendum, the neutral and well-respected psephologist John Curtice has shown that there has not been any significant change. Without even being able to frame a proper question the People's Vote is doomed to failure – hence my expectation that it would have to be a general election. But the Conservatives are unlikely to agree to that because it will either result in Corbyn, or Theresa for evermore – wouldn't she just love to be Head Girl for the duration!
Until a modern day Churchill steps forward we are basically stuffed. (And to save my old mate Atilla's fingers on the keyboard - I don't think that would be Vince Cable :cheesy
I agree with Tim's concern that it appears there is pressure building for a second referendum/peoples vote/vote on the final deal/etc, I also agree with Smini that it is mostly remain propaganda, propagated by MSM of course.
It's unlikely TM is going to give up the Tory position, however, she is battling with the EU globalist agenda, so the real pressure will be between the Tory/EU globalists and the Tory Brexiteers, everyone else is just whistling in the wind until that internal/external strife is sorted out.
Question is will that be sorted before 29/03/19 ?
timsk
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Hi smini',
Tim.
Had to look this word up - never heard it before!
By 'stuffed' - do you mean you think we're going to end up with a really bad soft Brexit - say a variation of the Chequers deal, i.e. Brexit in name only? Or perhaps you mean Mrs. May et al will somehow conjure up a way to get out of Brexit all together and we'll remain part of the EU?
Tim.
sminicooper
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My pessimistic psyche says "all/any of the above"! On the other hand, I learned a long time ago that nothing is ever as good or as bad as it seems at the time so I'm hopeful that it will eventually turn out ok. We got a pretty rough deal from the Frogs in 1066 but nevertheless, life still went on didn't it?
The IEA's plan released today looks to have promise – but as we know from trading, a good plan is only the start and can still be disaster in the hands of a poor trader. I've lost faith in the PM – she doesn't have an easy job with the factions within her party and many people sympathise with her. But that's not good enough – she's out of her depth, probably realises it but the trappings of power make her cling to office. It's really rather embarrassing and reminiscent of the last days of Gordon Brown. If she had been a football manager she would have been long gone.
The job needs someone who believes in Brexit – we all know that you can't trade a plan that you don't believe in. There are names that spring to mind but as I would not wish to raise the blood pressure of anybody on a walnut diet I'll keep them to myself.
Carpe Diem – who will it be?
mike.
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I’m not convinced there is growing support for a PV, they have just become extremely loud as they see a glimmer of light at reversing the referendum, Brexiteers are sitting back watching things unfold with the chequers bad deal or no deal, ether way it’s still leaving,They’re not as vocal as the “I’ll fight this to the bitter end remainers “ But as I mentioned earlier, I can’t see how there will be enough time to create a second ref/PV .. Even Labour is firmly on the fence.
barjon
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Yeah, I think that’s quite a cynical eye you’re looking through
. Poor old May has the almost impossible task of trying to get benefits without obligations - was never going to run. The chequers plan is a rather clever fudge saying that we’ll be in control of what we do but promising to respect the EU’s position (rules, laws) in exercising that control. On the one hand that can be seen satisfying both sides on the other (which seems to have been the favourite) it can be seen as satisfying neither side. It’s the fate of compromise to never fully satisfy anyone, but leave everyone just enough satisfied to give it a go.
counter_violent
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Guys, quit with the hysteria
There is only one choice left. Chequers is dead, I say it was never even a runner.
The choice will be between a Canada +++++ or No Deal WTO. Canada +++++ is off the shelf, acceptable to the EU, and leaves enough time to negotiate the ++++++'s.
Leave means leave and enough Tory malcontents will force May down this route. She will have no option but to put this to the EU and they will have no option but to accept or risk a No Deal outcome. That's it, there's nothing else can get through. There will be no peoples vote and no general election. May will announce the new policy at conference or shortly thereafter.
There is only one choice left. Chequers is dead, I say it was never even a runner.
The choice will be between a Canada +++++ or No Deal WTO. Canada +++++ is off the shelf, acceptable to the EU, and leaves enough time to negotiate the ++++++'s.
Leave means leave and enough Tory malcontents will force May down this route. She will have no option but to put this to the EU and they will have no option but to accept or risk a No Deal outcome. That's it, there's nothing else can get through. There will be no peoples vote and no general election. May will announce the new policy at conference or shortly thereafter.
Atilla
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On the contrary Labour politics is spot on and just what the country needs.
Let Tories tear them selves apart.
Atilla
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No categorically not. Disagree 100%.
Previous referendum was all about lies and deceit and false promises and hope.
The leavers were rubbishing and attacking everything that we worked hard to build, whilst making outlandish claims which could not be delivered.
This time round there is going to be a deal and some real options.
1. Deal on table - accept or reject? However, the remainers will have something to attack and rubbish. Brexiters will not have the red bus lies and hopes of an easy deal or claiming WTO is just fine with all the ports, customs and lorry parks on the horizon and businesses leaving.
You can't fool people twice.
2. Brexit means Brexit - options will be clearer along with falst promises. Parties may split in two if what we hear about Tories is true. UKIP effectively *******ised the Conservatives. Difficult to know which MP belongs to which party.
3. Remain as we are the benefits will crystalise. For example Japan agreeing a new Trade Agreement with EU provides benefits above and beyond WTO. If not why would they enter such trade agreements. Might be difficult for numpties to work that one out but how much of a numpty does one have to be to claim WTO is great, better than a trade agreement when trading with rest of the World.
Perhaps more young people will vote and some of the hasty Brexiteers will have felt the wind of change as in the Motor and Pharmacutical Industries. Won't mention Finance.
If citizens still choose Brexit then let it be. I'll accept democracy has played out and accept outcomes.
One thing is for sure, it will in no way be a referendum AT ALL like what we had before.
