Brexit and the Consequences

[Oscar Reed]

See if you can get anything out of this. I have not had a good read, yet, but "reduction of 60%" tells us little. What is the difference between imports and exports as a %age? is the real question.

To get back to your point. Spain is much poorer than the UK. To deny that is ridiculous and I am not trying to do that. The point is about the UK.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/spain/balance-of-trade

Thanks for the link.

Found some Euro data

Trade balance is very good.

But they still really heavy on manufactured exports and raw material imports.

Another can of worms but eurozone seems to include export data amongst themselves

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/balance-of-trade

 

[Pat494]

According to the news T. May has been reassuring Japanese car firms that Brexit will not impede the important assembly factories here in the UK. This is most unlikely especially after a hard landing. Tusk and co. want the UK to suffer a bit to deter other leavers.

 

[Splitlink]

Tusk and co. want the UK to suffer a bit to deter other leavers.

Absolutely!

There are going to be a lot of reassuring noises from May & Co.but putting off signing Art 50 until March had better produce some good ideas. Otherwise,the uncertainty will be damaging.

On another point. Delaying means that negotiations with countries,like Australia, which appears to be sympathetic, will not be possible until UK is free from EU ie.
two years plus time it takes to sign.

 

[Pat494]

The markets outside the EU are of course much bigger and more varied than the EU which is not very trade orientated. Too many petty restrictions and red tape imho.

The whole EU project was misold to the British public by Heath. What was put forward was as I remember it, a trading area. They barely mentioned all that integrated political rubbish.

 

[tomorton]

Quite right Pat. The sole objective of the EU's predecessor organisations was political union. Trade advantages were a bribe or smoke-screen to sell membership to voters.

On the other hand, would political union really have been a fate worse than death? Successful political unions do exist, including not least Germany, the USA and Switzerland.

 

[Atilla]

According to the news T. May has been reassuring Japanese car firms that Brexit will not impede the important assembly factories here in the UK. This is most unlikely especially after a hard landing. Tusk and co. want the UK to suffer a bit to deter other leavers.

Pat, the media especially Telegraph and Daily Mail are trying to whip up pro-Brexit sentiment with use of the words Punish and Suffer etc., this is nothing to do with business. Judicial Courts deal with Punishment and we have the NHS and the Church for those in Suffering.

EU is simply looking after her interests. It is purely business.

Remember the four freedoms of Europe:

1. The free movement of goods.
2. The free movement of services and freedom of establishment.
3. The free movement of persons (and citizenship), including free movement of workers.
4. The free movement of capital.

It has been specifically Conservative party policies that have done away with regional aid, grants and development policies and subsidies right from Thatcher days that has ended up with a declining Norhtern England with no industry.

Effectively, businesses were made free to move where ever suited them without government grants and subsidies, distorting, skewing and handicapping location decision. This was free capitalism. Market would take care of it!

It was at the time termed 'structural or frictional unemployment' where labour would move to where the jobs are. Common sense right? Of course it is. This was Thatchers vision as prescribed by her Yanki advisor.

EU. Theresa May now calls it disenfranchised all people of England let down by UK and the EU. Northern UK is wet and cold with no businesses wishing to move or locate there.

Unemployment is still higher up North and one has to ask the question why hasn't business moved up North in the last 30 years.

What will be done differently to change all that?



So ignoring all our internal problems and issues and challenges, why would the EU want to punish us and make us suffer if they are going to lose out them selves?

No worries, they are just bluffing us into staying... Oh I get it. Oi right then. Surely our cabinet ministers must know what they are talking about behind closed doors.


IN FACT They don't need us at all. They are looking to benefit from our departure and right now rubbing hands with glee at the prospect. Banks and Financial Services just the first step. Wait for cars, planes and engines to go next.

Yeah I know, scare mongering.... la la la ba ba ba. Follow the sheep all the way to the check out till. There are higher prices, job loses and lower wages and lower house prices down the line waiting for us all. Don't worry though in 10-20 years time we'll be in a much better place trading with the rest of the World. Sit tight. Don't mention the pound in your pocket today is the same as it was on 22nd of June. In fact it's better. You can use it as a spoon and have your soup with it. Pound today is virtually indestructible a little like gold.



Door is wide open. Fingers tapping. EU waiting...

 

[sminicooper]

According to the news T. May has been reassuring Japanese car firms that Brexit will not impede the important assembly factories here in the UK. This is most unlikely especially after a hard landing. Tusk and co. want the UK to suffer a bit to deter other leavers.

This is a more realistic view of the future for the UK car industry:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/14/this-is-the-right-way-to-help-carmakers-after-brexit/

 

[sminicooper]

Quite right Pat. The sole objective of the EU's predecessor organisations was political union. Trade advantages were a bribe or smoke-screen to sell membership to voters.

On the other hand, would political union really have been a fate worse than death? Successful political unions do exist, including not least Germany, the USA and Switzerland.

The UK is one also - albeit based on a viable single currency. But it looks like Sturgeon is doing her best to put pay to all that.

 

[Atilla]

This is a more realistic view of the future for the UK car industry:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/14/this-is-the-right-way-to-help-carmakers-after-brexit/

This underlines the point why would business locate in the UK and pay higher WTO tariffs for sending goods into EU then simply relocating into the EU?

The currency exchange factor is a one off benefit. It also requires cost benefit exercise wrt value added to good or service as to whether higher import and living costs will out weight exchange, cheaper export benefit?


Once again Brexiters are factoring in a lot of positives without having done any pre-prep work wrt cons and pros, gainers and losers.


Only people I hear talking about sovereignty these days are the opposition wanting Parliament to get a look in.

 

[Pat494]

I can't help thinking that the Brussels sprouts could have it both ways. For instance have a political union for those that want one and a trading area for those that just want that. Or am I being too simplistic ?

Of course Scotland could join the EU and we could smuggle stuff across the border like the Irish, Croations etc. Perhaps they will get a taste for Scottishness and haggis ?

 

[Splitlink]

Quite right Pat. The sole objective of the EU's predecessor organisations was political union. Trade advantages were a bribe or smoke-screen to sell membership to voters.

On the other hand, would political union really have been a fate worse than death? Successful political unions do exist, including not least Germany, the USA and Switzerland.

I agree with that. What I don't quite see is how a country like UK had the wool pulled over its eyes. I should think that these agreements would be entered into with one's eyes wide open. Especially with France and Germany involved-not to say the others. De Gaulle was very convinced that the UK entering the EU would not be a good idea and he stalled it off for a long time.

Anyway, the fact is that no one wants blame and it is water under the bridge, now, anyway. The history books are full of errors.

 

[sminicooper]

I can't help thinking that the Brussels sprouts could have it both ways. For instance have a political union for those that want one and a trading area for those that just want that. Or am I being too simplistic ?

Of course Scotland could join the EU and we could smuggle stuff across the border like the Irish, Croations etc. Perhaps they will get a taste for Scottishness and haggis ?

That's the sort of thinking that could have made a success of the EEC with us in it. But you have to remember that they are dogged with socialist principles that just don't permit that sort of thing. What we originally joined was a trade bloc and that was ideal. We just let them draw us into a socialist web over the years & eventually most of us have decided we don't like it anymore. If we'd done more to stand up for what we believed in, we wouldn't be in Brexit now I suspect. John Major has a lot to answer for.

 

[Splitlink]

That's the sort of thinking that could have made a success of the EEC with us in it. But you have to remember that they are dogged with socialist principles that just don't permit that sort of thing. What we originally joined was a trade bloc and that was ideal. We just let them draw us into a socialist web over the years & eventually most of us have decided we don't like it anymore. If we'd done more to stand up for what we believed in, we wouldn't be in Brexit now I suspect. John Major has a lot to answer for.

Yes, I think that you are right. It takes two to make an agreement and the British have a reputation for getting the best of a deal. We (and I am one, at heart. These loyalties cannot be shaken off) entered into a trade agreement, as you say. Other agreements must have been signed on the way to Brexit. Why did we sign them? Taken in? The Brits?

 

[Atilla]

Cost of servicing national debt going up. This one should be ticked against the £9bn we'll be saving in our contribution.

I dare not calculate the cost to the treasury / tax payer. Not enough zeros on my scientific calculator :whistling


Britain’s $1.8 Trillion Bond Market Ensnared in Brexit Battle

 

[tomorton]

I agree with that. What I don't quite see is how a country like UK had the wool pulled over its eyes. I should think that these agreements would be entered into with one's eyes wide open. Especially with France and Germany involved-not to say the others. De Gaulle was very convinced that the UK entering the EU would not be a good idea and he stalled it off for a long time.

Anyway, the fact is that no one wants blame and it is water under the bridge, now, anyway. The history books are full of errors.

In the long run, all historical errors can be seen as brave experiments - it just depends on how far off into the future the viewpoint is.

 

[barjon]

Atilla

I think the original,jealously guarded freedom is the freedom of labour not persons or citizens as it has become in practice.

 

[Splitlink]

In the long run, all historical errors can be seen as brave experiments - it just depends on how far off into the future the viewpoint is.

Hindsight? I think that I have seen that word on this site, before, somewhere.

 

[Atilla]

Atilla

I think the original,jealously guarded freedom is the freedom of labour not persons or citizens as it has become in practice.

Yes it was workers labour originally and this is simply because like capital it is a factor of production and should be allowed to move freely to where it is most productive. Nobody would think of capital flow restrictions as being anything but totally inefficient and costly to the free market mechanism and movement of labour is no different.

I'm guessing you are referring to the direct effect principal and supremacy of EU law applied through ECJ, which no doubt sticks in the throat of Brexiters as it overrides domestic law.

What people may not realise is that British citizens rights can be upheld in any state without discrimination too.

This effectively extends British freedoms to all other European states which is an absolute NET benefit to UK citizens.

MOREOVER, it is the UK who has most citizens in other countries in the EU. These people now said to be nearer 3m were denied the vote.


Statistics report that 48% of all migrants into UK are from non-EU countries. We can do so much more in controlling our borders wihtout all this market toil.



I'm still struggling with the referendum leave vote of 37% (actual voting population) having such a profound sway over UK direction. Then to insist having trumpeted sovereignty saying that's it! Parliament must endorse it! All done and dusted! Ridiculous beyond stupidity.

I see Parliament is finally finding her legs in challenging the hard core Brexiters on accounting for their actions. Can't lie in Parliament like they can on TV media circus. Hold them to account indeed.

 

[barjon]

Yes it was workers labour originally and this is simply because like capital it is a factor of production and should be allowed to move freely to where it is most productive. Nobody would think of capital flow restrictions as being anything but totally inefficient and costly to the free market mechanism and movement of labour is no different.

I'm guessing you are referring to the direct effect principal and supremacy of EU law applied through ECJ, which no doubt sticks in the throat of Brexiters as it overrides domestic law.

What people may not realise is that British citizens rights can be upheld in any state without discrimination too.

This effectively extends British freedoms to all other European states which is an absolute NET benefit to UK citizens.

MOREOVER, it is the UK who has most citizens in other countries in the EU. These people now said to be nearer 3m were denied the vote.


Statistics report that 48% of all migrants into UK are from non-EU countries. We can do so much more in controlling our borders wihtout all this market toil.



I'm still struggling with the referendum leave vote of 37% (actual voting population) having such a profound sway over UK direction. Then to insist having trumpeted sovereignty saying that's it! Parliament must endorse it! All done and dusted! Ridiculous beyond stupidity.

I see Parliament is finally finding her legs in challenging the hard core Brexiters on accounting for their actions. Can't lie in Parliament like they can on TV media circus. Hold them to account indeed.

Yes, most organisations require something far exceeding a simple majority for matters affecting their constitutions because of the fundamental and far reaching nature of any amendment.

In this case the government presumably thought that remain would be a slam dunk result so just tossed the question out there without bothering about the niceties.

What's done is done,though, so not a lot of point picking at it. Thinking has got to be about how to counter and/or overcome the problems, not what damage they might do.

 

[counter_violent]

Yes, most organisations require something far exceeding a simple majority for matters affecting their constitutions because of the fundamental and far reaching nature of any amendment.

In this case the government presumably thought that remain would be a slam dunk result so just tossed the question out there without bothering about the niceties.

What's done is done,though, so not a lot of point picking at it. Thinking has got to be about how to counter and/or overcome the problems, not what damage they might do.

Regardless of party politics, the whole establishment brought this upon the country.

First we had Heath who lied to the public regarding the EU and what it's ultimate aims were. Then we had successive govt's of either persuasion who flip flopped around the idea of in/out, reluctant remainers would accurately describe the average position over the last 40 odd years. Then we get mass migration because it suits big business to keep wages down. It really is no wonder that we are where we are today.

One thing is for certain. The British voting public will remember for a long time just how destructive it can be being part of a much larger organisation and having no voice and no real power.

We only need look at how the USA does not work as a whole, just the same as the EU. The whole bigger is better premise is flawed.