Brexit and the Consequences

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Business plan is called the White Paper. Google it.

Legally, UK doesn't have to pay anything as you say because this scenario was never considered by EU.

Having said that any future negotiations will entail considerably more haggling and payments than now.

WTO rules are worst scenario. Cost implications and export substitution will take place and UK will lose considerably more than 9bn we pay for none of the benefits we currently get.

UK will continue to import whilst exports will be hit. These kinds of cost benefit analysis of gains and losses are not for the public to debate let alone comprehend.

As mentioned before UK departure will be positive gain for the German and French economies. UK media talking about German's paying more. They'll gain considerably more from the demise of UK finance, legal and pharmaceutical industries.

Eurosceptic fockers not interested in national interest but their own careers. UK public also not the brightest or best educated sadly so.


Right now, both the US and UK are dwindling stars that's losing their sparkle. If you don't see it now, you'll see it soon enough when that last glitter of light fades out.


So let me get this right. On the one hand we are expected to bow to the queen, salute for the flag and die for our country . (At one time you could be arrested for not standing for the national anthem at the cinema and you could face a firing squad for 'cowardice'))

But when it suits the globalists you must swap your flag and national anthem for the EU and throw away your sovereignity, or be labelled a racist and a zenophobe... and stupid.
 
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So let me get this right. On the one hand we are expected to bow to the queen, salute for the flag and die for our country . (At one time you could be arrested for not standing for the national anthem at the cinema and you could face a firing squad for 'cowardice'))

But when it suits the globalists you must swap your flag and national anthem for the EU and throw away your sovereignity, or be labelled a racist and a zenophobe... and stupid.
Yep DK, that pretty much sums up the situation as I see it!
;)
 
So let me get this right. On the one hand we are expected to bow to the queen, salute for the flag and die for our country . (At one time you could be arrested for not standing for the national anthem at the cinema and you could face a firing squad for 'cowardice'))

But when it suits the globalists you must swap your flag and national anthem for the EU and throw away your sovereignity, or be labelled a racist and a zenophobe... and stupid.


David - You're talking about two different groups, right and left. Its no wonder they support opposing ideas.
 
David - You're talking about two different groups, right and left. Its no wonder they support opposing ideas.

They support the same idea.

The entire political class agree that this country should give up it's borders, it's independance and it's democracy to The EU.

They support the same idea.

They believe that our soldiers should die in illegal wars 'In order to keep our country safe' because we have a 'special relationship' with the US

This country is less safe because of Tony Blair

This coiuntry does not enjoy a 'special relationship' with the US; it's a myth. The clue is the number of times the puppets repeat the lie.

Just try disagreeing wth the US and see what happens.

'France is our oldest ally'- John Kerry ( After our parliament voted NO to an invasion of Syria. You remember? when our forces 'aren't there, they are embedded in US forces'?)

There are no 2 groups in politics. Surely enough people realise by now? That it's utterly futile expecting the political class to solve our problems.

They are exactly the cause of them. Or rather, they are merely the puppets carrying out a global agenda

It should not have been Cameron who stood down. It should have been the entire government. They very cleverly sacrificed their leader in order to avoid what should have been the response to a collective decision.

But then, the future of the Tory party is far more important than the future of the country isn't it?

At the very least, they should have chosen a leader who actually wanted to leave the EU rather than one who just wants to destroy the European court of human rights influence here.

I just hope the traitor political class manage to connive a second referendum. You'll see a far more convincing win for Brexit2.0

Every disaster the remain camp predicted proved wrong. And what we see now is the establishment doing everything it can to protect it's own interests above ours.

Those that did not vote because they believed voting no longer works will jump at the chance to make their voices heard.

The leave camp should then concentrate their efforts on convincing the younger generation that their future is doomed under the neo liberal global socialist agenda the elite desperately want.

Naturally, I have a few strategies I would share with the appropriate parties....:)





 
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So let me get this right. On the one hand we are expected to bow to the queen, salute for the flag and die for our country . (At one time you could be arrested for not standing for the national anthem at the cinema and you could face a firing squad for 'cowardice'))

But when it suits the globalists you must swap your flag and national anthem for the EU and throw away your sovereignity, or be labelled a racist and a zenophobe... and stupid.


You are a bit of a drama queen aren't you. Hope you enjoy the pantomime season.
 
You are a bit of a drama queen aren't you. Hope you enjoy the pantomime season.

You think? I dunno, maybe...

You've reminded me that I really should get around to researching how people reveal their true nature through their choice of words...
 
WTO rules will be the worst scenario? Okay so we pay an extra % on things between the EU and adjustment is going to happen. Where we end up who knows! One thing I can say for sure though is you are at least partially wrong in thinking it will be the worst scenario. Not least because of this:

"UK's trade is measured through both imports and exports of goods and services. In 2016, exports of goods accounted for 56 percent of total exports, mainly mechanical machinery (14 percent), cars (10 percent), electrical machinery (8 percent), medicinal and pharmaceutical products (8 percent), aircraft (5 percent) and other miscellaneous manufactures (5 percent).

Main goods export partners were: the United States (16 percent), Germany (11 percent), France, the Netherlands and Ireland (6 percent each) and China (5 percent). Services accounted for 44 percent of total exports, mainly professional, scientific and technical activities; followed by the information and communication services. This page provides - United Kingdom Exports - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United Kingdom Exports - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on October of 2017."
https://tradingeconomics.com


As you can see we are trading very healthily with other countries.


That's like now as we are still in the EU.

What are your forecasts and expectations when we leave?

Considering fall in the pande one would expect more of an uplift in exports. However, as we don't have much of a manufacturing base imports will be in excess of exports and we will see a sharp deterioration in BoPayments.

Hot capital flows and demise of service industries will further exacerbate those BoP numbers.

Coupled with all that we will be importing inflation. Your analysis leaves much to be desired.

Stick to software development and working from home so you don't have to compete for seats on public transport me ol matey (y)
 
That's like now as we are still in the EU.

What are your forecasts and expectations when we leave?

Considering fall in the pande one would expect more of an uplift in exports. However, as we don't have much of a manufacturing base imports will be in excess of exports and we will see a sharp deterioration in BoPayments.

Hot capital flows and demise of service industries will further exacerbate those BoP numbers.

Coupled with all that we will be importing inflation. Your analysis leaves much to be desired.

Stick to software development and working from home so you don't have to compete for seats on public transport me ol matey (y)


Hi Atilla

Expectations for something that has no familiar reference is arbitrary and therefore finger in the air stuff. You seem to be alluding to trade halting once Brexit completes. This is a rather daft point of view and maybe you should step outside foe some fresh air because you are not thinking clearly. Moving onto the BOP which is split into 3 accounts


1)The current account ( trade in goods and services)

2)The capital account-primary income account.(investment income, compensation of employees and other primary income)

3)The financial account-secondary income account.(transfers between countries.official payments to and receipts from EU institutions and other international bodies)

If you look at the aggregate of the BOP it doesn't look great but like so much in life the devil is in the detail. taking the latest data which is from Q2 the picture isn't nearly as grim as you paint it. Comparing Q2 for 2015\16\17

When you look at the data it is clear the major negative blows are from investments in equities and debt markets and central government payments. Imports are always going to be negative because we are a service driven economy. All other data points are actually not bad at all with broad moderate growth.

"demise of service industry"! On what research or factual evidence do you base this or is it more finger in the air stuff? Perhaps some more fresh air is needed?

Brad
 
They support the same idea.

The entire political class agree that this country should give up it's borders, it's independance and it's democracy to The EU.

They support the same idea.

They believe that our soldiers should die in illegal wars 'In order to keep our country safe' because we have a 'special relationship' with the US

This country is less safe because of Tony Blair

This coiuntry does not enjoy a 'special relationship' with the US; it's a myth. The clue is the number of times the puppets repeat the lie.

Just try disagreeing wth the US and see what happens.

'France is our oldest ally'- John Kerry ( After our parliament voted NO to an invasion of Syria. You remember? when our forces 'aren't there, they are embedded in US forces'?)

There are no 2 groups in politics. Surely enough people realise by now? That it's utterly futile expecting the political class to solve our problems.

They are exactly the cause of them. Or rather, they are merely the puppets carrying out a global agenda

It should not have been Cameron who stood down. It should have been the entire government. They very cleverly sacrificed their leader in order to avoid what should have been the response to a collective decision.

But then, the future of the Tory party is far more important than the future of the country isn't it?

At the very least, they should have chosen a leader who actually wanted to leave the EU rather than one who just wants to destroy the European court of human rights influence here.

I just hope the traitor political class manage to connive a second referendum. You'll see a far more convincing win for Brexit2.0

Every disaster the remain camp predicted proved wrong. And what we see now is the establishment doing everything it can to protect it's own interests above ours.

Those that did not vote because they believed voting no longer works will jump at the chance to make their voices heard.

The leave camp should then concentrate their efforts on convincing the younger generation that their future is doomed under the neo liberal global socialist agenda the elite desperately want.

Naturally, I have a few strategies I would share with the appropriate parties....:)







I suppose they do support one idea in one sense - the idea that they should retain power. Its simple, there's no global agenda.
 
Has anyone heard of the theory of Common Purpose? Possibly a conspiracy theory. Does it have any merit? Have our institutions been flooded with common purpose graduates over a number of years, part of the globalist agenda?

Anyone have any insights? Is it related to deep state?

It really does seem that Brexit is highlighting a global conspiracy but the way the Tories and EU are manipulating the situation is to make whatever end game they have in mind look like nobody's fault with no- one to blame.

Is there collusion between Lib/lab/con/EU to fix the situation, strange how the Libdems ( and SNP) are so quiet, just leaving the LibCons to get on with it.

May has meetings with EU followed by Corbin.

Fascinating to watch with popcorn.
 
That's like now as we are still in the EU.

What are your forecasts and expectations when we leave?

Considering fall in the pande one would expect more of an uplift in exports. However, as we don't have much of a manufacturing base imports will be in excess of exports and we will see a sharp deterioration in BoPayments.

Hot capital flows and demise of service industries will further exacerbate those BoP numbers.

Coupled with all that we will be importing inflation. Your analysis leaves much to be desired.

Stick to software development and working from home so you don't have to compete for seats on public transport me ol matey (y)

A real treat for you Atilla.

A lot of this content I covered in the build up to the referendum vote. :)

Enjoy!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7U4bKFSm9M&list=PL7tmnPoCa3UNSXHdByXI427MoSZy0RmS2&index=2
 
Its simple, there's no global agenda.

Ok... let me close my eyes, wave a magic wand and try it...... nope, it's still there.

What's you're definition of globalism?

What's your explanation for the exact same policies being inflicted on numerous nations at exactly the same time with the same explanations given?

There's no global agenda for the global warming lie?

(Sorry..climate change, there's no warming is there? I guess They'll have to keep changing it..Ice age, global warming, climate change extreme weather global non science group think ..(that last one needs a bit more work) )
 
According to the radio the EU leaders will be insisting the UK contributes to their pensions long after Brexit !

Typical

The PM should not give in to all their demands.
Looks like a hard crash out of EU over money.
 
Ok... let me close my eyes, wave a magic wand and try it...... nope, it's still there.

What's you're definition of globalism?

What's your explanation for the exact same policies being inflicted on numerous nations at exactly the same time with the same explanations given?

There's no global agenda for the global warming lie?

(Sorry..climate change, there's no warming is there? I guess They'll have to keep changing it..Ice age, global warming, climate change extreme weather global non science group think ..(that last one needs a bit more work) )


Political governing parties look like they're centrally controlled because regardless of specifics, their over-riding goal is to keep power. As in trading, this has to be achieved with minimal risk of failure so policies end up looking pretty diluted and similar. But these parties aren't being directed to do this, its naturally instinctive.

As for global warming, the entire scientific community accepts the evidence that global warming is definitively accelerated by human activities. Whereas many politicians continue to deny it. I'll side with the scientists.
 
Hi Atilla

Expectations for something that has no familiar reference is arbitrary and therefore finger in the air stuff. You seem to be alluding to trade halting once Brexit completes. This is a rather daft point of view and maybe you should step outside foe some fresh air because you are not thinking clearly. Moving onto the BOP which is split into 3 accounts

Dear FXX, similar to most Brexiters you are hearing and fighting imaginary beasts that don't exist. I never said trade will halt. The word is displaced.

Analysis is as follows read carefully and learn.

Current free and speedy exports into EU have no WTO tarriff or inspection. After WTO rules those exports will carry a WTO levy and be priced higher.

They are also likely to incur delays perhaps once in a while if not every now and then.

Now why should a European buy from the UK when the same good can be purchased from a member EU state for the same price or less which they can receive quicker due to less border delays?

Thus, UK exports will be displaced by EU member states. Not all but some. So for you to state everything will be rosy as before is an inaccurate expectation. I won't call it daft but a false expectations exports will continue as before.



1)The current account ( trade in goods and services)

2)The capital account-primary income account.(investment income, compensation of employees and other primary income) Investment into the UK has already slowed down. Some still investing but what you can expect is a dramatic reduction in corporation tax, perhaps a little like what Ireland does. If this does happen you should expect tit for tat responses from the EU in turn.Economic warfare is not out of the question. This is called turning a friend and an ally into an enemy.

3)The financial account-secondary income account.(transfers between countries.official payments to and receipts from EU institutions and other international bodies)

If you look at the aggregate of the BOP it doesn't look great but like so much in life the devil is in the detail. taking the latest data which is from Q2 the picture isn't nearly as grim as you paint it. Comparing Q2 for 2015\16\17

When you look at the data it is clear the major negative blows are from investments in equities and debt markets and central government payments. Imports are always going to be negative because we are a service driven economy. All other data points are actually not bad at all with broad moderate growth.

"demise of service industry"! On what research or factual evidence do you base this or is it more finger in the air stuff? Perhaps some more fresh air is needed?
So you don't believe banks will leave. EMA or any of the legal firmst will not leave to open branches in countries in the EU. Are all these industrial global companies telling fibs? Perhaps they are. We'll see.
Brad

I have no idea why the EU would maintain Euro Clearing in the UK? A little like BoE deciding to operate out of Frankfurt.


Apparently the government have produced some extensive analysis of what Brexit may look like but it's not available for public consumption and is stamped Top Secret. One can only assume it threatens national security. If that was me I'd be shouting it from the roof tops to intimidate da enemy no?

As for TM tough talk at the beginning have laid out her stall what on earth is she keep going to their feet to hurry them along about talking about trade deals for.

Her actions don't exactly match her words. Not the first time. Why do you think she's behaving this way?

Where is Boris after not a penny more tirade his gone quiet as a mouse?


Tories are deep in the pooh and they have also placed the national interest in it as well.


As I said before, it is now in the interests of France and Germany to see UK leave or accept worse terms than before. They will gain UK will lose. We have an uphill struggle to reestablish our manufacturing.

We can do this but it will entail many years of pain and hard ship for millions of people. Wages will fall along with living standards and desperation will breed success. Simpy that when we were doing so well 5th in the world it's a load of tripe for fecking politicians and blabber mouths talking up the flag, sovereignty and dying for ones country as some morons like to talk about as if we are at war with the EU. British citizens are more likely to go for health treatment and delightful holidays over there and in some cases to die coz they choose to as fecking daft British politicians deny them their civil bodily rights to knock them selves out.

Just how fecking crazy is all that? ;)
 
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Political governing parties look like they're centrally controlled because regardless of specifics, their over-riding goal is to keep power.
Do the Conservatives know that? :LOL:

As in trading, this has to be achieved with minimal risk of failure so policies end up looking pretty diluted and similar. I wish!

But these parties aren't being directed to do this, its naturally instinctive. Wasn't for Thatcher/Hitler/Atlee

As for global warming, the entire scientific community accepts the evidence that global warming is definitively accelerated by human activities. Whereas many politicians continue to deny it. I'll side with the scientists.
But years ago these experts all thought the earth was flat ;)

A contrarian view ..........
 
A contrarian view ..........


I'm sure the Conservatives do know that but they've had such a cack-handed leadership for years now that each leader has been free to do their level best to throw it all away. Just a thought though - wouldn't a more determined and focused Opposition have forced the Conservatives to just do better?

You can't deny that |labour stole many centrist and even rightist polices under Tony Blair. And May has stolen many leftist polices more recently. Each drifts towards the centre, which is where most British voters sit.

There were few scientists as we understand the term during the pre-Renaissance era. The people who declared the world flat were the Church. You will find a mass of flat-earthers based in the US, who are similarly religiously driven.
 
I have no idea why the EU would maintain Euro Clearing in the UK? A little like BoE deciding to operate out of Frankfurt.


Apparently the government have produced some extensive analysis of what Brexit may look like but it's not available for public consumption and is stamped Top Secret. One can only assume it threatens national security. If that was me I'd be shouting it from the roof tops to intimidate da enemy no?

As for TM tough talk at the beginning have laid out her stall what on earth is she keep going to their feet to hurry them along about talking about trade deals for.

Her actions don't exactly match her words. Not the first time. Why do you think she's behaving this way?

Where is Boris after not a penny more tirade his gone quiet as a mouse?


Tories are deep in the pooh and they have also placed the national interest in it as well.


As I said before, it is now in the interests of France and Germany to see UK leave or accept worse terms than before. They will gain UK will lose. We have an uphill struggle to reestablish our manufacturing.

We can do this but it will entail many years of pain and hard ship for millions of people. Wages will fall along with living standards and desperation will breed success. Simpy that when we were doing so well 5th in the world it's a load of tripe for fecking politicians and blabber mouths talking up the flag, sovereignty and dying for ones country as some morons like to talk about as if we are at war with the EU. British citizens are more likely to go for health treatment and delightful holidays over there and in some cases to die coz they choose to as fecking daft British politicians deny them their civil bodily rights to knock them selves out.

Just how fecking crazy is all that? ;)

Hi Atilla

France and Germany will gain and the UK will lose! Obviously you didn't get enough fresh air!

Total exports to the UK for 2016 from the EU

Germany 88bln
France 35bln
Netherlands 47bln
Belgium 31bln
Swiss 26bln
Italy 24bln
Spain 21bln
Ireland 18bln
Poland 12bln
Portugal 2bln
Others 4bln

That totals to 298bln which is a major hit to the EU in terms of WTO tariffs so perhaps not so much of a benefit, is it! Now this seems like a considerable amount but it isn't all of it. The total imports to the UK in 2016 amounts to 625bln which means 327bln came to the UK through WTO from countries all over the world.

Moving on further down this WTO conversation I would like to add a snippet from a report by Civitas.

- Our analysis shows that if the UK leaves the EU without a trade deal UK exporters could face the potential impact of £5.2 billion in tariffs on goods being sold to the EU. However, EU exporters will also face £12.9 billion in tariffs on goods coming to the UK.

- Exporters to the UK in 22 of the 27 remaining EU member states face higher tariffs costs when selling their goods than UK exporters face when selling goods to those countries.

- German exporters would have to deal with the impact of £3.4 billion of tariffs on goods they export to the UK. UK exporters in return would face £0.9 billion of tariffs on goods going to Germany.

- French exporters could face £1.4 billion in tariffs on their products compared to UK exporters facing £0.7 billion. A similar pattern exists for all the UK’s major EU trading partners.

-The biggest impact will be on exports of goods relating to vehicles, with tariffs in the region of £1.3 billion being applied to UK car-related exports going to the EU. This compares to £3.9 billion for the EU, including £1.8 billion in tariffs being applied to German car-related exports.

table1-2.jpg


source - http://www.civitas.org.uk/reports_articles/potential-post-brexit-tariff-costs-for-eu-uk-trade/

I never said everything would be rosy. You said "we don't have much of a manufacturing base imports will be in excess of exports and we will see a sharp deterioration in BoPayments".

It is one thing looking at the headline number but an entirely different thing when looking at the details. This is similar to technical traders dismissing fundamentals when a good\bad number comes out and price goes the opposite direction. In terms of trade, 2% of GDP is accounted for in the BOP deficit of which 53% is from WTO trading partners. We export approximately 190bln to the EU every year and approximately 205bln to the rest of the world. Our largest exports are

Transportation 73bln
Cars 40bln
Gas turbines 19bln
Aircraft parts 15bln
Aircraft 5bln
Medicines 21bln
jewellery 4bln
Liquor 6bln
Crude 13bln
Refined petroleum 13bln
precious metals 28bln
Plastics and rubber 13bln
Paper 7bln
Mineral products 26bln
Machines 86bln
Instruments 18bln
Chemicals 60bln
Art and antiques 6bln
Animal products 6bln

Food products accounts for 18bln

Some sectors will be more affected than others but one thing is for sure, the biggest hitters are not items that can easily be switched out for EU equivalents.

On a scale of 1 to 10 where 10 is catastrophic I would place Brexit impact as a 4 on a no deal.


Brad
 
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