I have no idea why the EU would maintain Euro Clearing in the UK? A little like BoE deciding to operate out of Frankfurt.
Apparently the government have produced some extensive analysis of what Brexit may look like but it's not available for public consumption and is stamped Top Secret. One can only assume it threatens national security. If that was me I'd be shouting it from the roof tops to intimidate da enemy no?
As for TM tough talk at the beginning have laid out her stall what on earth is she keep going to their feet to hurry them along about talking about trade deals for.
Her actions don't exactly match her words. Not the first time. Why do you think she's behaving this way?
Where is Boris after not a penny more tirade his gone quiet as a mouse?
Tories are deep in the pooh and they have also placed the national interest in it as well.
As I said before, it is now in the interests of France and Germany to see UK leave or accept worse terms than before. They will gain UK will lose. We have an uphill struggle to reestablish our manufacturing.
We can do this but it will entail many years of pain and hard ship for millions of people. Wages will fall along with living standards and desperation will breed success. Simpy that when we were doing so well 5th in the world it's a load of tripe for fecking politicians and blabber mouths talking up the flag, sovereignty and dying for ones country as some morons like to talk about as if we are at war with the EU. British citizens are more likely to go for health treatment and delightful holidays over there and in some cases to die coz they choose to as fecking daft British politicians deny them their civil bodily rights to knock them selves out.
Just how fecking crazy is all that? 😉
Hi Atilla
France and Germany will gain and the UK will lose! Obviously you didn't get enough fresh air!
Total exports to the UK for 2016 from the EU
Germany 88bln
France 35bln
Netherlands 47bln
Belgium 31bln
Swiss 26bln
Italy 24bln
Spain 21bln
Ireland 18bln
Poland 12bln
Portugal 2bln
Others 4bln
That totals to 298bln which is a major hit to the EU in terms of WTO tariffs so perhaps not so much of a benefit, is it! Now this seems like a considerable amount but it isn't all of it. The total imports to the UK in 2016 amounts to 625bln which means 327bln came to the UK through WTO from countries all over the world.
Moving on further down this WTO conversation I would like to add a snippet from a report by Civitas.
- Our analysis shows that if the UK leaves the EU without a trade deal UK exporters could face the potential impact of £5.2 billion in tariffs on goods being sold to the EU. However, EU exporters will also face £12.9 billion in tariffs on goods coming to the UK.
- Exporters to the UK in 22 of the 27 remaining EU member states face higher tariffs costs when selling their goods than UK exporters face when selling goods to those countries.
- German exporters would have to deal with the impact of £3.4 billion of tariffs on goods they export to the UK. UK exporters in return would face £0.9 billion of tariffs on goods going to Germany.
- French exporters could face £1.4 billion in tariffs on their products compared to UK exporters facing £0.7 billion. A similar pattern exists for all the UK’s major EU trading partners.
-The biggest impact will be on exports of goods relating to vehicles, with tariffs in the region of £1.3 billion being applied to UK car-related exports going to the EU. This compares to £3.9 billion for the EU, including £1.8 billion in tariffs being applied to German car-related exports.
source -
http://www.civitas.org.uk/reports_articles/potential-post-brexit-tariff-costs-for-eu-uk-trade/
I never said everything would be rosy. You said "we don't have much of a manufacturing base imports will be in excess of exports and we will see a sharp deterioration in BoPayments".
It is one thing looking at the headline number but an entirely different thing when looking at the details. This is similar to technical traders dismissing fundamentals when a good\bad number comes out and price goes the opposite direction. In terms of trade, 2% of GDP is accounted for in the BOP deficit of which 53% is from WTO trading partners. We export approximately 190bln to the EU every year and approximately 205bln to the rest of the world. Our largest exports are
Transportation 73bln
Cars 40bln
Gas turbines 19bln
Aircraft parts 15bln
Aircraft 5bln
Medicines 21bln
jewellery 4bln
Liquor 6bln
Crude 13bln
Refined petroleum 13bln
precious metals 28bln
Plastics and rubber 13bln
Paper 7bln
Mineral products 26bln
Machines 86bln
Instruments 18bln
Chemicals 60bln
Art and antiques 6bln
Animal products 6bln
Food products accounts for 18bln
Some sectors will be more affected than others but one thing is for sure, the biggest hitters are not items that can easily be switched out for EU equivalents.
On a scale of 1 to 10 where 10 is catastrophic I would place Brexit impact as a 4 on a no deal.
Brad
