Bob Volman Price Action Scalping

[Giorrgi]

Currently studying the new charts, most of them are self explanatory, however...

Chart 21, there was a previous swing down (after the skipped IRB). Volman took an IRB/BB to the upside which backfired ("mean London open shake"). Then he took another IRB in the same direction. I'm having trouble with this second trade. Not only there was previous downsing (from the skipped IRB), but an attempt to break to the upside got violently shut down (lower bottom). This last element could be interpreted as a false break (therefore reinforcing upside bias), but it still all looks very rough to me. Nevertheless the trade worked out and maybe I'm not experienced enough to really understand all the intricacies here. Anyone care to comment ?

Chart 28 : the previous swing was down, there were lower tops all over the place, yet an IRB to the upside was taken.

 

[ptsnu]

Currently studying the new charts, most of them are self explanatory, however...

Chart 21, there was a previous swing down (after the skipped IRB). Volman took an IRB/BB to the upside which backfired ("mean London open shake"). Then he took another IRB in the same direction. I'm having trouble with this second trade. Not only there was previous downsing (from the skipped IRB), but an attempt to break to the upside got violently shut down (lower bottom). This last element could be interpreted as a false break (therefore reinforcing upside bias), but it still all looks very rough to me. Nevertheless the trade worked out and maybe I'm not experienced enough to really understand all the intricacies here. Anyone care to comment ?

Chart 28 : the previous swing was down, there were lower tops all over the place, yet an IRB to the upside was taken.

Hey Giorrgi,

Regarding the 21
Maybe someone has knowledge of the implications that usually a mean London opening has on our timeframe? This is prob related to the opening breakout topic that so many traders like to trade, but I only know that it exists, not how to quantity its impact on the market next or how usually this happens, or when it fails.
Here my guess would be that the opening break failed, so a quick change of bias could prove positive for a scalper. But I would like to read more on this topic, in case someone wants to share knowledge of a book, article about it?


Regarding 28 chart, check 12.3. If the obvious (in previous downtrend having a break after the range to the downside) fails it means the the odd is about to happen. When the stronger pressure on a chart fails, doesnt mean we cant trade, a few times a countertrend trade could even prove more powerful like an odd event, cause it traps more ppl who desperately run for cover so the break could even be stronger, granted, those are not the easier trades to take.

 

[BLS]

Currently studying the new charts, most of them are self explanatory, however...

Chart 21, there was a previous swing down (after the skipped IRB). Volman took an IRB/BB to the upside which backfired ("mean London open shake"). Then he took another IRB in the same direction. I'm having trouble with this second trade. Not only there was previous downsing (from the skipped IRB), but an attempt to break to the upside got violently shut down (lower bottom). This last element could be interpreted as a false break (therefore reinforcing upside bias), but it still all looks very rough to me. Nevertheless the trade worked out and maybe I'm not experienced enough to really understand all the intricacies here. Anyone care to comment ?

Previous pressure was bullish so he skipped that IRB. Given that context, a bottoming pattern formed on top of the 20 level, which he saw as a bullish sign. There's a sharp move down, piercing the 20 level at the London open, but there was no follow through. This break of the 20 level turned out to be false, another bullish sign. That said, when I was back testing this London session (before reviewing Bob's charts) I skipped the first IRB long and didn't notice the 2nd.

Chart 28 : the previous swing was down, there were lower tops all over the place, yet an IRB to the upside was taken.

This is another example of when price breaks the 00 but fails to follow through and reach the 80. A somewhat similar example can be found in chart 19 of week 4 (attached). The setups are different but basically we have bearish pressure go through the 00 but stall ahead of the 80 in both charts. I did not notice this setup either when I was back testing this session.

 

[LoSparviero]

Hello guys. Now I got the charts and if u want i will share with you the setups I find during the sessions. It is the first time I try to recognize those pattern and i will be thankful to u if u want to analyze and tell me what is wrong and what is fine in your opinion.

The RB trades looks good but I'm doubtful about the BB-SB, prices didn't squeeze on the bottom of the box...anyway the BB-SB was a successful one.


Cheers, Iacopo

 

[Giorrgi]

Thanks BLS and ptsnu for the comments on those charts ! I will have to sum up this whole 20/00 level stuff because I always miss it when trading live.

I'm not sufficiently focused. Today I missed 2 good setups and traded one which in retrospect seems very bad (I had all the elements before trading it already available to me but discarded some of them). I'd appreciate comments on this 3rd chart.

The other two are pretty straightforward RBs, there seemed to be unfavorable conditions in the 2nd chart, but the break went well, so I'm kind of confused as to whether I was right about not trading that setup.

 

[BLS]

Thanks BLS and ptsnu for the comments on those charts ! I will have to sum up this whole 20/00 level stuff because I always miss it when trading live.

I'm not sufficiently focused. Today I missed 2 good setups and traded one which in retrospect seems very bad (I had all the elements before trading it already available to me but discarded some of them). I'd appreciate comments on this 3rd chart.

The other two are pretty straightforward RBs, there seemed to be unfavorable conditions in the 2nd chart, but the break went well, so I'm kind of confused as to whether I was right about not trading that setup.

Second chart looks fine to trade. There might be resistance under the 00 but the range had a good bottoming pattern so I think it was worth a try. The bulls pretty much won the 80 level battle so a 00 vacuum seems probable.

For the third chart, your setup looks more like a continuation trade than it does a reversal. See chart 10 from this week's batch of charts. I think there's some blocky resistance to the immediate left as well (around the 90 level). It certainly looked like the bulls were getting the upper hand but they faltered after awhile.

 

[Giorrgi]

Second chart looks fine to trade. There might be resistance under the 00 but the range had a good bottoming pattern so I think it was worth a try. The bulls pretty much won the 80 level battle so a 00 vacuum seems probable.

For the third chart, your setup looks more like a continuation trade than it does a reversal. See chart 10 from this week's batch of charts. I think there's some blocky resistance to the immediate left as well (around the 90 level). It certainly looked like the bulls were getting the upper hand but they faltered after awhile.

Thanks!

About the second chart: it was supposed to be a continuation trade (the trend I had in mind was an uptrend 2h before that didn't fit on the screenshot), however the pullback was so deep (80%) that the whole idea of trading upside and seeing it as continuation was foolish, since the real trend now was the downtrend. Is this what you meant?

Edit: another setup just popped, so I'm editing this post.

I gave two reasons for why it wasn't the perfect trade (there are always pros and cons...). The second one was too long to put in the chart, but here it is. It is something I read in this very thread (post by Sammich 40-50 pages ago).

"If prices don’t put higher lows when reaching an upper barrier and the bars are instead overlapping almost completely for a while: don’t trade (HFT false breaks). A variation on these overlapping HFT bars is a micro trend around the barrier zone (which is essentially overlapping PA on a slightly higher time scale). " So a large series of dojis around the barrier isn't always a good sign.

 

[BLS]

Thanks!

About the second chart: it was supposed to be a continuation trade (the trend I had in mind was an uptrend 2h before that didn't fit on the screenshot), however the pullback was so deep (80%) that the whole idea of trading upside and seeing it as continuation was foolish, since the real trend now was the downtrend. Is this what you meant?

No, the setup in the second chart was not a continuation trade. Price reached the 80 area and ranged for a bit. Bulls won the fight and price moved on to the 00.

Edit: another setup just popped, so I'm editing this post.

I gave two reasons for why it wasn't the perfect trade (there are always pros and cons...). The second one was too long to put in the chart, but here it is. It is something I read in this very thread (post by Sammich 40-50 pages ago).

"If prices don’t put higher lows when reaching an upper barrier and the bars are instead overlapping almost completely for a while: don’t trade (HFT false breaks). A variation on these overlapping HFT bars is a micro trend around the barrier zone (which is essentially overlapping PA on a slightly higher time scale). " So a large series of dojis around the barrier isn't always a good sign.

I am very reluctant to trade past the first half of the US session (I usually stop after 17:00GMT). I would most likely skip that trade you noted but mostly for psychological reasons. I've come to hate trading past 17GMT since in the past I've gotten myself trapped many times in low activity. If I see a really nice setup though I'll trade it. This one looks a bit premature to me because I don't see a convincing rejection at the 80 area. I only see a tiny double bottom; I don't see a reverse head and shoulders. But I guess it's doable for 5 pip risk. About 9 dojis formed and the bears couldn't do anything about it. We might get a 00 vacuum.

I can understand wanting to lock in some profits after seeing price get close to your target but your exit is very aggressive. Are you using a 20EMA? Your charts looks a bit different from mine.

 

[Yorkshire Terrier]

Hi Guys
Started using ProRealTime and wondered if you could help, how do you capture a screen shot its not the same as my previous way of (save as).

 

[Yorkshire Terrier]

ECB President Draghi will be banging his drum at 2.30pm Gmt could result in some volatility.

link to ECB speech
Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs)

 

[LoSparviero]

there's a printer icon low on the left. Click it


What about those trades?, worked fine but I think that in the last box on the right I had to wait for price to sqeeze and then buy, no squeeze no trade right?
A question for u guys. On the second stop (the X on the right) I could reverse my position instead of the break of a box in the higher area of range (there was also a double top from a technical point of view)?

 

[Giorrgi]

No, the setup in the second chart was not a continuation trade. Price reached the 80 area and ranged for a bit. Bulls won the fight and price moved on to the 00.

Yeah, I was actually talking about the 3rd chart. Sorry for the confusion.

My exits are indeed aggressive. As you've said it's partly to the fact that I want to lock in some profits and its also due to the fact that I don't have a solid grip on tipping point yet.

---

Today's setups.

I'm mainly unhappy about skipping the second DD in the second chart. I've built a sort of fear when trading these with-trend setups. I've never successfully taken one yet, even when they seemed to be textbook perfect. I have to get over it. My main fear is that whatever trend we're in now can end any time. For example, here there was a huge upswing that didn't build up in a RB. This was reason enough for me to skip the trade. I would especially like someone to share his charts/thoughts on this situation and maybe tell me if there are indeed any bearish signs in the chart that would require caution or if it's all in my mind.

The third chart was a confirmation of my irrational fears...

 

[Yorkshire Terrier]

sorry that link was for December

 

[Giorrgi]

there's a printer icon low on the left. Click it


What about those trades?, worked fine but I think that in the last box on the right I had to wait for price to sqeeze and then buy, no squeeze no trade right?
A question for u guys. On the second stop (the X on the right) I could reverse my position instead of the break of a box in the higher area of range (there was also a double top from a technical point of view)?

Hey,

I'm having a lot of trouble reading your charts. They're squeezed too much in width and too stretched out in height. I mean it's readable but definitely not practical.

 

[Yorkshire Terrier]

Thanks LoSparviero

Just started using PRT and spent all of yesterday trying to sort out how to use the charts, and get them setup to how the rest of the posters on the thread have them.

What a difference they make compared to my previous charting Ninja Trader, the setups are a lot clearer and PRT prints far more bars.

Trading to day made me feel like a small child in a candy store, quite allot of movement maybe it because I'm not use to seeing so Manny candles printed.

Any way ill try and upload my charts for to day.

 

[caolon1997]

Buy the book. It's called 'Forex Price Action Scalping'. The author is Bob Volman. Read it. Take notes. Read it again. Open a demo account and trade. Once you get a good feel for the system and are getting some decent results start trading live, and gradually increase your size as your results and confidence improve.

The only thing new in the book was tick charts which was worth the money for me , to me everything else in the book is reinvent the wheel.I don't use what he suggested , but use 200 tick charts.Same old stuff here like scalp with trends , trailing stops and box breakouts in ranging markets.He talks about probabilities and edge , yet many of box/range breakout set ups , in ranging markets , have no better than 50/50 chance of success less spread .The author has his own definition of edge ,it is based on trader's ability to read the markets .It would seem to me , to be a discretionary method , one that can not be used by everybody as per textbook.The range breakout strategies are the same old box/range breakout technical analysis strategies rehashed and all this stuff is available for free on the internet.

A professional trader would look more for support and resistance , and filter out randomness and set ups in fx random transactions which appear to be valid set ups according to the range break set ups. the book is short on these aspects and barely covers support and resistance .and there is no confidence to put on live trades , based on the ranging breakouts.The book in my opinion , falls short to deliver a high probability scalping method in a few words.Breaks of 1 pip in random transactions or volatility increases and noise only exist in real markets , but not in text books.

The author makes a lot of claims , but does not verify any of them with any statistics or study results.There is no probability data on the success/failure rate of each of his set ups , there are no historical results of actual live performance of his set ups.There are a lot of tease breaks and false breaks , but without knowing the probabilities of success/failure , one can not use the methods for live trading.

This book is well written in easily absorb able literature , but the important thing is the content , and if it can be applied practically by someone else for live trading .Practicing his methods can help some to learn trading in the lower time frames but it can also become a detriment to a trader , if many set ups fail due to randomness and market conditions , for a prolonged period of time.Can all the content be applied profitably ?. I very much doubt it .I read a load of dubious set ups , many things he suggests , I would do the opposite in live trading , many traders look for the failure of set ups to trade against.One of his set ups ARB , acknowledges the failures of the other range break set ups , and is intended to be used when they fail.Similar methods are used by amateurs on forex forums , there is nothing to suggest a superior method of trading ,in my opinion.

Many professional scalpers like to trade the opposite to the range breakouts , due to the high failure rates of range breakout trading.They prefer to sell at the top of the range and buy at the bottom of ranges , i.e selling at resistance and buying at support.Ranges in the fx charts come in different shapes like channels and diagnol trend lines , this book barely touches it.

Money in the gold rush was made by selling picks and shovels , in the trading industry gold rush it is made by selling books ,seminars , education ,software and signals .The trading industry is full of rogues .

Any decent professional of Guru status , would easily become a billionaire from trading and scalping , they would not have time to write a book.Just do a google search of compounding billionaires , you will see what I mean. The only evidence we have is Bob Volman make money from writing books on Amazon.

 

[Yorkshire Terrier]

The only thing new in the book was tick charts which was worth the money for me , to me everything else in the book is reinvent the wheel.I don't use what he suggested , but use 200 tick charts.Same old stuff here like scalp with trends , trailing stops and box breakouts in ranging markets.He talks about probabilities and edge , yet many of box/range breakout set ups , in ranging markets , have no better than 50/50 chance of success less spread .The author has his own definition of edge ,it is based on trader's ability to read the markets .It would seem to me , to be a discretionary method , one that can not be used by everybody as per textbook.The range breakout strategies are the same old box/range breakout technical analysis strategies rehashed and all this stuff is available for free on the internet.

A professional trader would look more for support and resistance , and filter out randomness and set ups in fx random transactions which appear to be valid set ups according to the range break set ups. the book is short on these aspects and barely covers support and resistance .and there is no confidence to put on live trades , based on the ranging breakouts.The book in my opinion , falls short to deliver a high probability scalping method in a few words.Breaks of 1 pip in random transactions or volatility increases and noise only exist in real markets , but not in text books.

The author makes a lot of claims , but does not verify any of them with any statistics or study results.There is no probability data on the success/failure rate of each of his set ups , there are no historical results of actual live performance of his set ups.There are a lot of tease breaks and false breaks , but without knowing the probabilities of success/failure , one can not use the methods for live trading.

This book is well written in easily absorb able literature , but the important thing is the content , and if it can be applied practically by someone else for live trading .Practicing his methods can help some to learn trading in the lower time frames but it can also become a detriment to a trader , if many set ups fail due to randomness and market conditions , for a prolonged period of time.Can all the content be applied profitably ?. I very much doubt it .I read a load of dubious set ups , many things he suggests , I would do the opposite in live trading , many traders look for the failure of set ups to trade against.One of his set ups ARB , acknowledges the failures of the other range break set ups , and is intended to be used when they fail.Similar methods are used by amateurs on forex forums , there is nothing to suggest a superior method of trading ,in my opinion.

Many professional scalpers like to trade the opposite to the range breakouts , due to the high failure rates of range breakout trading.They prefer to sell at the top of the range and buy at the bottom of ranges , i.e selling at resistance and buying at support.Ranges in the fx charts come in different shapes like channels and diagnol trend lines , this book barely touches it.

Money in the gold rush was made by selling picks and shovels , in the trading industry gold rush it is made by selling books ,seminars , education ,software and signals .The trading industry is full of rogues .

Any decent professional of Guru status , would easily become a billionaire from trading and scalping , they would not have time to write a book.Just do a google search of compounding billionaires , you will see what I mean. The only evidence we have is Bob Volman make money from writing books on Amazon.

Spamtastic:clap:

 

[Yorkshire Terrier]

Here's my trades today.

 

[BLS]

Yeah, I was actually talking about the 3rd chart. Sorry for the confusion.

That was definitely not a place for continuation (from the perspective of the 70 tick chart anyway)

Today's setups.

I'm mainly unhappy about skipping the second DD in the second chart. I've built a sort of fear when trading these with-trend setups. I've never successfully taken one yet, even when they seemed to be textbook perfect. I have to get over it. My main fear is that whatever trend we're in now can end any time. For example, here there was a huge upswing that didn't build up in a RB. This was reason enough for me to skip the trade. I would especially like someone to share his charts/thoughts on this situation and maybe tell me if there are indeed any bearish signs in the chart that would require caution or if it's all in my mind.

The third chart was a confirmation of my irrational fears...

I would not get too worked up on skipping that DD. If you take a look at the more recent charts from Bob, he rarely takes DD's anymore except when he see's a lot of momentum and decides to trade more aggressively. His message is pretty much to lay low on with trend setups like the DD/SB unless there's good momentum. Those dojis weren't compressed relative to the pullback; to me, when I was back testing this, it looked like price was likely to stay around the 40 for a bit. Of course, there is a case for taking the trade. The pullback pierced the 20EMA but found support to the immediate left.

Your third chart reminds me more of 15.4 and 15.11. The intensity of the swing down to swing up is less...intense than 15.4 and 15.11 but the overall situation is similar. Price falls from the 50 area and the bulls try to rally but they run into the same resistance from earlier. As for the setup, there's some small clustering around the 50 area before the pullback. That to me seems unfavorable for a DD trying to break away from the 50 area. I think you were trading into resistance at that point. This is my assessment with all those clues taken together. Don't skip a DD in the future just because there's clustering, or just because the low of the move came from a false low, but take all the other clues into context and weigh them out (like is the market overly bullish/bearish at this point etc). I sometimes find myself skipping trades for just one reason without taking into account the other clues but I'm trying to my best to focus on the overall picture.

 

[LoSparviero]

Don't understand very well the meaning of your post Caolon (probably because I'm italian...) but what i want to say is that Volman's setups are for chart trader (IMHO) not for algo trader and u know, as every discretional method the best stats are yours stats obtained using the method. The only true one.