Bob Volman Price Action Scalping

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Here's a DD that I took this morning. The break of the range wasn't that great, I wasn't sure if it was tradable. There was also a little bit of blocky action in the ellipse, but the breakout bars were pretty strong. I chose to take this and trail tightly. Somehow I got out with a 2.5 pip profit, must have gotten a good bid from my broker. If I chose to let this trade run and not use a tipping point it would work out, but I don't know if that sort of management is best in the longrun. I may have been able to take an SB shortly after my exit if this had been in a strong bullish trend, but in this context I thought it would be aggressive.

On the other hand, sometimes I watch the CAD unemployment announcement. There was a nice bear flag and a BB that broke after the announcement that looked like it had some nice odds, but I didn't pull the chart up until it had already broken. Later there was a nice pullback and possible DD, but I didn't think it was valid. One of the dojis was 3 pip, and that matches the largest bar in the pullback. So if this were to be traded, it would basically be a first break, and it wasn't the first pullback in the downtrend. Too aggressive, so I skipped. That was sort of a bummer after a nice 50% pullback, but it happens. The CAD takes some caution because it's often a slow pair to trade, but during a high volatility news announcement, it can be very nice.

105 Cad.png
 

I managed the EURUSD DD the same way, but I don't consider it the tippint point technique. We exited just above a place where more bulls would likely deploy their positions. But then again, double top, miniature head and shoulders... if it was in a real trend, I'd probably hold my position, I managed agressively because it was sort of an ARB as you mentioned. Got 1 pip from it haha, I guess brokers are generous today :)
 
stehlikpetrmsncom said:
I managed the EURUSD DD the same way, but I don't consider it the tippint point technique. We exited just above a place where more bulls would likely deploy their positions. But then again, double top, miniature head and shoulders... if it was in a real trend, I'd probably hold my position, I managed agressively because it was sort of an ARB as you mentioned. Got 1 pip from it haha, I guess brokers are generous today :)
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Yeah you're right, in a proven trend it would've been worth staying in. I didn't see anything tradable on that range break that wasn't aggressive. I saw a BB a little bit ago on the EUR/USD but it is such a slow trend that I didn't take it. I don't like the slow trends, but maybe it's the suspense. I'm not sure if it's necessary to worry about them if they are technically sound.
 
I was able to get some points a few minutes after the NFP announcement (going short and long), but I sensed the market was really drying up after it failed to extend a vicious rally into the 1.3000's so I just kept to the sidelines for the rest of the session. I think the market mostly priced in the up-trend from yesterday but the fundamentals of today are nudging it just a bit higher, that is why the trend was so sluggish.

The sluggish trends are absolutely the worst, because both trend traders and range traders get confused and stabbed to death. They tend to happen more during Asian markets I've noticed.
 
TonyIommich said:
The sluggish trends are absolutely the worst, because both trend traders and range traders get confused and stabbed to death. They tend to happen more during Asian markets I've noticed.
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Yeah, I don't like sluggish trends either. I almost think traders on higher time frames are antsy about the EUR/USD in the 1.3 zone. They're waiting to see if it will reverse or not. On the weekly chart, it's at the top of one of the channel lines so I expected a little bit of indecision. I never use the larger time frames to make decisions, but since its been sideways for awhile I checked it out of curiosity.
 
Not too familiar with Bob Volman.. We'll have to look it up. Spent a considerable time learning Al Brooks.. Sooo complicated. Thanks for the recommendation (y)
 
More charts from Bob and some encouraging words if you've been struggling this week like I have:

Progress is sometimes hard to detect within oneself, especially when repeatedly making the same sort of mistakes. It just makes you wonder, right. But it is all part of the process of evolving as a trader. If you are in it for the long haul, it is worth the pain and effort, no doubt. Hope these new charts help out.
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Thanks Bob and BLS! These charts have been extremely helpful. I have the utmost respect for Bob for taking the time to send us some charts.
 
BLS said:
More charts from Bob and some encouraging words if you've been struggling this week like I have:
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Bob's sharing is just AWESOME. I'm gaining so much insight into why skip a trade, why wait, why exit. It is the questions you ask yourself while trading that can make such a difference to your insight.

And Bob's words remind us to look at it from a long term perspective. Don't expect instant gratification (PnL at End of Day) but from a perspective of months or years out.
 
Several have mentioned Al Brooks. He will be releasing a video course soon. Here is one big difference I see between Brooks traders and Volman traders. Both are watching the same charts all day. Traders here at the forum sometimes see the exact same trade. Some may take and others may pass. That tells me that Volman's method is understood of what makes a good setup and what does not. Sure you miss a lot of what Volman sees but that is to be expected when learning as a student can't expect to see as much as the teacher.

In contrast, on Brooks forum, you never see the discussion talking about the same setup, whether taking or passing it. Now in theory hundreds of Brooks traders are all looking at the same 5 minute ES chart. So it makes me wonder why are they not seeing the same thing? Several have their own journals and post their trades. But never do the traders see the same trade and discuss as an opportunity to trade or pass. In hindsight at end of day, there may be some discussion if a direct question is asked on a particular opportunity. And that discussion may have some overlap in shared analysis. I don't discredit Brooks at all -- he is a great trader. But I do wonder why others can't learn his method and "trade alike" like they can with Volman.

Brooks and Volman will both tell you that you don't have to use their method to make money. What counts is to learn "something" that has a proven edge (based on your studies/backtesting/studying/use) and really, really, really study it. When you have completely mastered "it", you make money.

I have recently "narrowed" down the conditions when I take Volman's setups. I think I can master them easier/faster by taking them only in the conditions that are easiest to see on the chart without fooling myself -- seeing what I want to see so I can trade. The "narrowest" conditions is the ARB. The "broadest" conditions is the BB. I think this narrowed focus will help me concentrate on doing more of what I do well.

But it is hard to see a setup go to profit and you didn't allow yourself to take it because it wasn't on your list. Something I have to fight psychologically.
 
Hey guys,

I've been going through the new charts that Volman shared with us (btw: it's freaking awesome that he does this type of thing).

I got a problem with Chart 13: in the middle of the chart an RB trade is skipped (I think) and the explanation is the 20 level trap. However just moments later an RB/ARB trade is taken at the same spot. Why wouldn't there be another "20 level trap" in this exact same spot again?

I guess I don't really understand the 20 level trap thing yet (I remember the 20 levels being discussed thoroughly in the book but not the trap thing).
 
Giorrgi said:
Hey guys,

I've been going through the new charts that Volman shared with us (btw: it's freaking awesome that he does this type of thing).

I got a problem with Chart 13: in the middle of the chart an RB trade is skipped (I think) and the explanation is the 20 level trap. However just moments later an RB/ARB trade is taken at the same spot. Why wouldn't there be another "20 level trap" in this exact same spot again?

I guess I don't really understand the 20 level trap thing yet (I remember the 20 levels being discussed thoroughly in the book but not the trap thing).
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No, that trade is not skipped (there is a green arrow). The note just means it was a trap, but it was a perfectly valid setup as well. The trap note can't be foreseen from the price action before the trade. Sometimes you will get trapped, no way around it. The next setup wasn't a trap simply because it worked.
 
stehlikpetrmsncom said:
No, that trade is not skipped (there is a green arrow). The note just means it was a trap, but it was a perfectly valid setup as well. The trap note can't be foreseen from the price action before the trade. Sometimes you will get trapped, no way around it. The next setup wasn't a trap simply because it worked.
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Great I get it now. Thanks for clearing things up :smart:
 
Giorrgi said:
Hey guys,

I got a problem with Chart 13: in the middle of the chart an RB trade is skipped (I think) and the explanation is the 20 level trap. However just moments later an RB/ARB trade is taken at the same spot. Why wouldn't there be another "20 level trap" in this exact same spot again?

I guess I don't really understand the 20 level trap thing yet (I remember the 20 levels being discussed thoroughly in the book but not the trap thing).
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I actually took that 20 level trap and thought I just made a bad read. But since he put a green arrow there I think he was still taking it as a valid trade. I think sometimes price in a 20 level needs more of a build-up in a sideways market. It's not as big of a deal in a trending market where there is significant bullish pressure, but in a range, sometimes those breaks fail. I'm not sure if he'd consider that trade aggressive or not. That first arrow doesn't look like a bad read to me.
 
shotgun77 said:
But it is hard to see a setup go to profit and you didn't allow yourself to take it because it wasn't on your list. Something I have to fight psychologically.
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What I do to combat this is I take mini trades of setups that I find questionable. With Oanda I can use as little as 1 unit of currency to do a trade so often I find myself doing that when I feel like I want to try something adventuresome. I keep separate stats of my full-sized and mini trades.

Its important, imho, to experiment because eventually you have to learn to try new things. Also, having on an insignificant position will always let you get a better feeling for the market then having nothing on and just watching.
 
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