Bob Volman Price Action Scalping

[cha-ching]

Nothing wrong with this trade I'd say.

The pullback was a little deep. I counted 13 bars out of 20, 65%. Otherwise it looked good.

 

[cha-ching]

Trades today:

I missed that RB. At the time I drew the lower boundary at 20-level, so the squeeze looked not as good as shown and I hesitated.

SB: I was aware of vanica's comment on second thrust higher than first pullback high. In fact I did look at all SB trades in the book and found only two cases: Figure 9.4 and Figure 9.5 (2nd SB). In this case it went 3 pip higher, and there was a gap before that. However when I saw price quickly go back and close dead-end below 20ema I pulled the trigger. Maybe I shouldn't have, but this is my first winning live trade with 9.9 pip gain :clap:

 

[shotgun77]

@cha-ching
I can't pull up your attachment. I get the error message:
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[cha-ching]

@cha-ching
I can't pull up your attachment. I get the error message:
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What about now?

I was really lucky on the SB trade. Probably should've skipped.

 

[samich1262]

@cha-ching
I can't pull up your attachment. I get the error message:
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Hmm that's weird. I can see it. I almost took this as a DD but didn't because of the higher low, but maybe I should've because overall conditions were favorable.
I don't know that the tiny higher low should be feared in such a bearish move. Maybe if it were more significant, but it was tiny. It looked unlikely that price could climb back into the range easily after that, and the 2nd doji was pushed back under the average quickly. I'd say conditions win out in this case.

 

[cha-ching]

Hmm that's weird. I can see it. I almost took this as a DD but didn't because of the higher low, but maybe I should've because overall conditions were favorable.
I don't know that the tiny higher low should be feared in such a bearish move. Maybe if it were more significant, but it was tiny. It looked unlikely that price could climb back into the range easily after that, and the 2nd doji was pushed back under the average quickly. I'd say conditions win out in this case.

I re-uploaded the charts, he probably did not refresh the page.

Yeah I thought about DD too, but that gap made me feel a little nervous 'coz I didn't see price "stalling". One more doji will make me feel better.

How did you like the missed RB? I read in the book that when market is slow one should use absolute high/low as barrier, but the one below 20 was obviously a false one so I moved it to 20-level. Then I was trigger shy when price broke.

 

[samich1262]

How did you like the missed RB? I read in the book that when market is slow one should use absolute high/low as barrier, but the one below 20 was obviously a false one so I moved it to 20-level. Then I was trigger shy when price broke.

Yeah, I did like it, but I didn't take it. I was pretty sure about the barrier level, but not totally. Should've jumped in on that though, it looked valid. I've been bad about not joining in on RB's lately. Not sure why, I feel like I read them correctly.

 

[BLS]

Trades today:

I missed that RB. At the time I drew the lower boundary at 20-level, so the squeeze looked not as good as shown and I hesitated.

I saw this more as a BB and took a chance on it. I was worried about the 50 level but other than that, everything else was good. We had clear downward pressure, no visible chart resistance, and we had good build up and squeeze.

SB: I was aware of vanica's comment on second thrust higher than first pullback high. In fact I did look at all SB trades in the book and found only two cases: Figure 9.4 and Figure 9.5 (2nd SB). In this case it went 3 pip higher, and there was a gap before that. However when I saw price quickly go back and close dead-end below 20ema I pulled the trigger. Maybe I shouldn't have, but this is my first winning live trade with 9.9 pip gain :clap:

I saw this more as a DD. I was distracted at the time so I didn't notice it break but I think it was a good trade. You've got a nice clean breakout and a pullback that retraces almost 50% of the move, right into the 20EMA. It's a nice bonus to see price prick that 20EMA only to be quickly pushed back down.That pullback would've made me a bit paranoid though, even though it shouldn't. I think it's takes some aggression/confidence to try to take with trend setups after a fresh breakout, especially when we've seen (or perceived) a lot of them to fail.

 

[samich1262]

What did you guys think of this SB? I did not take this because I thought it was overextended. Wanted a larger pullback first. I don't particularly like setups after an IRB but it might be unnecessary for me to feel that way if it has a good pullback. in this case I didn't even see an IRB, I saw it more as an improper break.

The same move over on the GBP/USD chart had what I thought was a valid IRB, and then a BB in place of where the SB was on the EUR/USD chart. Does that first box look like a valid IRB? Trying to make sure I'm seeing these better.

 

[shotgun77]

@cha-ching
I like your "RB" as an IRB. I can see 3 arches in it which is a good pattern for IRBs.
I see your "SB" as an FB. It's the first pullback after a breakout of sideways consolidation. You had that one false break in the retrace up but it wasn't at the ema so I don't count it. It looks similar to 8.1 pg 64. Also See 8.4 pg 71 - it had a very tiny false break in its down leg to ema but still an FB.

 

[cha-ching]

I saw this more as a BB and took a chance on it. I was worried about the 50 level but other than that, everything else was good. We had clear downward pressure, no visible chart resistance, and we had good build up and squeeze.



I saw this more as a DD. I was distracted at the time so I didn't notice it break but I think it was a good trade. You've got a nice clean breakout and a pullback that retraces almost 50% of the move, right into the 20EMA. It's a nice bonus to see price prick that 20EMA only to be quickly pushed back down.That pullback would've made me a bit paranoid though, even though it shouldn't. I think it's takes some aggression/confidence to try to take with trend setups after a fresh breakout, especially when we've seen (or perceived) a lot of them to fail.

Regarding your E1, I had the same box drawn but I missed the entry b/c I wanted to set an alert by EMA, but I set the trigger price too close to the barrier and wasn't fast enough to pull the trigger. I found that keeping your eye on the screen during a range can be stressful. Just one question for you: what is the technical ground for you to move the tipping point up after that higher high at 1.2892?

 

[cha-ching]

@cha-ching
I like your "RB" as an IRB. I can see 3 arches in it which is a good pattern for IRBs.
I see your "SB" as an FB. It's the first pullback after a breakout of sideways consolidation. You had that one false break in the retrace up but it wasn't at the ema so I don't count it. It looks similar to 8.1 pg 64. Also See 8.4 pg 71 - it had a very tiny false break in its down leg to ema but still an FB.

Thanks for the insight. I've finished about half on my second reading of the book. The setups are getting more clear with the help from you guys.

 

[BLS]

Regarding your E1, I had the same box drawn but I missed the entry b/c I wanted to set an alert by EMA, but I set the trigger price too close to the barrier and wasn't fast enough to pull the trigger. I found that keeping your eye on the screen during a range can be stressful. Just one question for you: what is the technical ground for you to move the tipping point up after that higher high at 1.2892?

I was trailing aggressively. What I usually do (when trailing aggressively) is move my tipping point to the barrier when the trade goes in my favor about 5-6 pip but had some trouble along the way. There's no pullback to put your tipping point on but you have to think how it'll look if prices manage to crawl back inside the barrier after trying to crack the 50; it's not pretty. I guess some examples of moving the stop up to the barrier would be charts 6 and 16 from Bob's charts (I have attached them)

I put my third tipping point there after about 4-5 touches since it's becoming a clear level of resistance. It would be a technical feat for the bulls to crack that level. Think of it as a small block.I wouldn't take a long at the break of it but it would inspire me to dump my short.

Make sure you are sitting comfortably when watching the charts. Don't focus on the moving price action; don't just watch price tick up and down. Focus on the overall picture. Every now and then rescan the chart and see how the recent price action fits in the context of the overall price action. This doesn't mean walk away from the computer screen only the check periodically. Find some time during slower price action, where there doesn't seem any setups on the horizon to close your eyes and meditate. Take short breaks but keep one eye open on the chart, just in case.

I would not try to set up any alerts.

 

[cha-ching]

Thanks for the explanation BLS. I have another question regarding Bob's way to move tipping points. It appeared several places in the book but let's look at this one: Figure 14.1 on page 250, number 2 and 3. On page 252, at the end of the first paragraph Bob wrote: "the moment the bar of (3) took out the high of (2), the protective stop was lifted to the level of the ullback low (black line)".

My question is that until the bar of (3) closes we don't know whether (2) will become a mini-swing low. (3) could've taken out high of (2) first, then dipped, say, 2 pip below the low of (2), i.e., (3) becomes an outside bar of (2). In that case the trade would be exited prematurely.

Now if we should wait until (3) to close, and then (2) indeed becomes a swing low, then at what point should we move the tipping point to low of (2)? If high of (2) has not been taken out by (3) then we wait for that to happen; but what if it is indeed taken out by (3) but (3) closes lower than the high of (2), should the tipping point be moved or not?

Another example is Figure 14.5 on page 257, 7 takes out high of 6 (Bob's explanation at the bottom of page 259).

 

[BLS]

Thanks for the explanation BLS. I have another question regarding Bob's way to move tipping points. It appeared several places in the book but let's look at this one: Figure 14.1 on page 250, number 2 and 3. On page 252, at the end of the first paragraph Bob wrote: "the moment the bar of (3) took out the high of (2), the protective stop was lifted to the level of the ullback low (black line)".

My question is that until the bar of (3) closes we don't know whether (2) will become a mini-swing low. (3) could've taken out high of (2) first, then dipped, say, 2 pip below the low of (2), i.e., (3) becomes an outside bar of (2). In that case the trade would be exited prematurely.

Now if we should wait until (3) to close, and then (2) indeed becomes a swing low, then at what point should we move the tipping point to low of (2)? If high of (2) has not been taken out by (3) then we wait for that to happen; but what if it is indeed taken out by (3) but (3) closes lower than the high of (2), should the tipping point be moved or not?

Another example is Figure 14.5 on page 257, 7 takes out high of 6 (Bob's explanation at the bottom of page 259).

That is an issue when looking at charts in hindsight. I admit I have not thought about this. I think it's an issue with the choice of the number of ticks per candle. I mean, if it did break the high of (2) and then closed below the low of (2) on the 70 tick chart, it might look different on, say, a 69 tick chart. Instead of (3) closing below the low of (2), you have the candle after (3) open below the low of (2). In that situation it looks like a swing low got taken out to the downside, which seems like a proper exit. It gets pretty confusing when you think how charts would look like in different tick numbers so it's best not to think about it.

For simplicity's sake, don't wait for a candle like (3) to close before moving your tipping point. I think Bob talks about the choice in ticks not mattering much so if the situation you describe happens to you, don't worry about it. Just move the tipping point according the method laid out in the chapter.

I don't know if this is a satisfying answer for you but it's all I have. Maybe I'll have a better answer after lunch.

 

[shotgun77]

I found that keeping your eye on the screen during a range can be stressful.

Make sure you are sitting comfortably when watching the charts.

A friend switched to futures 6E from the EURUSD FX for this reason. He found himself hunched over the screen watching closely for a break or for the target. That is not a relaxed way to trade. Hunched posture tells your brain you are tense and thus danger might be near. It might distort your read of the chart. Sitting back relaxed tells your brain no danger and might clarify your read of the chart. Further, my friend likes using bracket orders on the 6E as it automates more of the trading process.

 

[stehlikpetrmsncom]

My trades today. Regarding the topics you were talking about today, here's my opinion:

That DD was good, I missed it by seconds because I wasn't focusing on the chart enough. It has all the making of a good trade, don't be scared by minor first break if the overall picture is this good. I'd also call it SB - though it made new high, it was sold really fast and a pip here pip there doesn't mean as much after such a strong move.

Tippint point technique - I believe the less you manage your trade the better. Every trade will need different degree of agressivness when trailing the stop, but theoretically you should make pips even if you wouldn't manage any of the trades. I save myself few pips here and there when the trade starts looking bad, but I mainly concentrace on not killing my trades too early. I think that's a bigger danger.

 

[cha-ching]

shotgun77,

I totally agree on the posture part. That's what I need to pay more attention to.

I do use alerts for each major news release, one 15 minutes before and one right at the release. As BLS mentioned before there are often big movements after news, which is perfect for trend trading. I do not trade during these 15 minutes because OANDA would widen the spread to 5 or 10 pip. Good time for bathroom break, snacks, relaxation, or reading. Even after the release I think I'll need to wait for a few minutes to filter out the noise generated from the news.

Before I finish RB/IRB/ARB chapters for the second time I only range trade the most basic RB, so today I was trying to set an alert for the EMA to get close enough to the barrier when there's a long wait. Still I'll need to check the screen from time to time. If the breakout happens too fast I may not be able to place the order just in time. So the alert is just an aid, it should be something that I become dependent upon.

 

[BLS]

Looks like I still have trouble showing some aggression in a good trend. I still managed to catch 10 pip today though. At least I didn't trade recklessly trying to "make up" for those missed pips, which I have done in the past, so I consider this a good trading day.

 

[cha-ching]

Looks like I still have trouble showing some aggression in a good trend. I still managed to catch 10 pip today though. At least I didn't trade recklessly trying to "make up" for those missed pips, which I have done in the past, so I consider this a good trading day.

I noticed the SB you missed. There were two news releases there, Chicago PMI (6:45 on your chart) and U Michigan Consumer Sentiment (6:55). OANDA widened spread to 5 pip during the first one so I didn't pull the trigger (the second one in 5 minutes at that SB), although both were medium impact according to Forex Factory. Maybe I should get a different broker.

I drew those three BB setups on my chart too, but I'm not ready to trade BB yet, so I skipped all of them. And I'm glad that I drew the same conclusion as your analysis This reminds me of Figure 10.8 on page 133.

The only trade I took was another SB right after London close and the news about Spanish Bank Stress Test Results. The spread was widened to 1.5 pip, but I guess I was a little trigger happy. Please comment if you find anything wrong. I think the trend is not good enough for a FB, and there's no DD. Maybe I should've bailed after that double top formed.

Please also comment on an earlier IRB I found by hindsight. Thanks.