Big Ben on the FTSE100

Great thats as simple as i was hoping, on the above settings what kind of a success rate have you found?

I'll get involved, and i'll try some variations and keep you all posted :)

Has any of you guys tried a similar strategy on other stocks eg wall street?
 
Todays trade - Long @ 6007 stop @ 5997.1 limit @ 6024.3

Not sure about this - its that 6000 level again.
 
I've only put the short order on today - the range its quite high for recent 8-9, and I don't like it hovering around that 6000 mark, plus there's a gap to fill downwards from the overnight / weekend futures trading, and the price is just above weekly resistance 1 and daily resistance 3. Maybe too much analysis!
 
Doomberg said:
Great thats as simple as i was hoping, on the above settings what kind of a success rate have you found?

I'll get involved, and i'll try some variations and keep you all posted :)

Has any of you guys tried a similar strategy on other stocks eg wall street?
Click to expand...


Overall win rate from day 1 is 64%, but that time encompasses a number of slight refinements to the basic rules. Win rate in the first 21 weeks of 2011 so far is 43-30, making 59%. Somebody did some projections a while back that long-term performance under late version rules woud be 55%, so anything 60+ will be good for me.

A 64% win rate might not sound impressive, but assume you trade 4 days out of 5, so that's 200 per year, of which 128 are winners and 72 losers: this leaves an excess of 56 profitable trades per year, about 1 per week. In actual money, suppose each trade is worth £500 - you're making £28k net: as taxed salary, this would be worth about £35k.
 
Stopped out here too. I thought as we were just above 6,000 it would be safe going long away from it but there you go.
 
yep, another bad one...

I have been looking at the Dax for a few weeks. It seems a bit more volatile than the FTSE so the tight stops are taken out fairly frequently. I don't have any Dax historical data to backtest variations of the strategy. Given up now to focus on the FTSE.
 
I can't see why BB in some format might not work with the DAX, and currencies / markets traded in volume on a given exchange's business day hours. It seems to rely on a sudden upsurge in volume over the same short time period in the business day. The range of views on the market and their parameters suddenly expand, causing price to move dramatically away from 'rest', usually seen falling back between these two extremes by about 1 hour in. This is then followed by a breakout in one direction or the other which is usually a significant move, not an incremental expansion of the early range.

I don't think BB would have to be confined to markets that have a closed period overnight, as long as overnight volume is much lower than daytime. Mark Fisher has made it work on the S&P and commodities.

Perhaps the biggest disincentives to BB-ing the markets are that there is only one trade per day per market and the r:r is flat or only slightly positive. As for win rate, personally, I would find anything over 60% absolutely fine, but perhaps others see that as a bigger negative.
 
Absolutely, the theory stands up as we have seen, it would be nice to have some data to backtest with though as its really difficult to optimise the various parameters with a limited dataset.

Anyone know a cheap source for Dax historical data (1min bars)?
 
What about a quick poll on May's BB results. If you'd followed the 'standard' rules, you would have been using v7 until the 6th and v8 thereafter. The first week was a 4-1 win: Week 2 had 3 no-trades and ended 1-1: Week 3 was a famous 5-0 victory.

So, after 3 weeks, the month looks like a runaway record-breaker, 10 wins to 2 losses. At that point, my nature tells me to just continue - the system is a long-term strategy and it doesn't matter if results tail off from there, they will eventually find equilibrium at 60-65% win rate. So I finished the month at 11-7 instead of 10-2. I halved my profits.

Who would have closed the books after Week 3 until 01/06 and who would have kept trading like I did? And who is right?
 
tomorton said:
What about a quick poll on May's BB results. If you'd followed the 'standard' rules, you would have been using v7 until the 6th and v8 thereafter. The first week was a 4-1 win: Week 2 had 3 no-trades and ended 1-1: Week 3 was a famous 5-0 victory.

So, after 3 weeks, the month looks like a runaway record-breaker, 10 wins to 2 losses. At that point, my nature tells me to just continue - the system is a long-term strategy and it doesn't matter if results tail off from there, they will eventually find equilibrium at 60-65% win rate. So I finished the month at 11-7 instead of 10-2. I halved my profits.

Who would have closed the books after Week 3 until 01/06 and who would have kept trading like I did? And who is right?
Click to expand...

If you are going to trade a system like this the only way to do it is consistently tomorton, so in my opinion you are right. I broke the rules today and I got lucky, but that could go either way.

The point about testing and achieving consistent results is that you get a strictly defined method that gives a consistent winning ratio. If you chop and change and arbitrarily stop or start, you are just as likely to hit the bad times as the good, and that would probably put you off the system.
 
Purchasing managers figures just released - looks like they'll send things lower - they certainly moved some currency pairs.
 
Good call tomorton. I'm still in the trade at lunch time, this is a first. The market isn't moving much at all (yet). Think I will leave the trade to run as there has just been bearish looking candle close on the 5 min chart and the outside bar in the 15min chart is suggesting a move south (bearish engulfing).
 
Kerching ! Happy to finally see a winner after a bad week :) Looks like it gapped down a few points at 70 on my chart then went on to hit target.
 
tomorton said:
Overall win rate from day 1 is 64%, but that time encompasses a number of slight refinements to the basic rules. Win rate in the first 21 weeks of 2011 so far is 43-30, making 59%. Somebody did some projections a while back that long-term performance under late version rules woud be 55%, so anything 60+ will be good for me.

A 64% win rate might not sound impressive, but assume you trade 4 days out of 5, so that's 200 per year, of which 128 are winners and 72 losers: this leaves an excess of 56 profitable trades per year, about 1 per week. In actual money, suppose each trade is worth £500 - you're making £28k net: as taxed salary, this would be worth about £35k.
Click to expand...

Yeah it certainly seems like a good system as its been consistent, as you say... anything over 60% thats consistent is more than good, people seem to be searching for the holy grail but consistency is key... I was impressed by that Forex Morning Trade as at one point it was getting about 4 out of 5 days right, i decided to watch a little longer before i got involved and it has gone down the pan massively, it may return but its had a very bad month for them, long term consistency is key
 
Also guys as an observation with Wall St if one was to of done the same you'd of won on that too, the demo test i did with wall street today was the same but double normal BB TP / SL.. because Wall St is 12000+ so i did at 2pm the low + 2 but with a stop of 22 and a TP of 30
 
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