Over the last few weeks I can certainly say that the primary break-out trades based on the London open in the forex market have been a disaster. These have been trades based on a break-out from the high or low of the 0700-0800 range. The limits of this range are almost always broken within the first 15 minutes of LSE trading. But in only very few occasions recently has price then continued to travel to a distance equal to the 0700-0800 range before pulling back into the range and exiting through the opposite extreme.
This is contrary to what I've seen in the past and to so much I've read about ORBO's. So what's going on, why and what can be done about it?
Last question first, what to do? - I'm not taking primary entry signals right now, just the reversal signals for when the break-out fails.
First question - what's going on? - On a longer time-frame the forex market is blocked. Prices are neither rising nor falling with any energy. This sounds counter-intuitive and strictly speaking impossible, price moves every second on all the major pairs, right? Yes, price moves, but it isn't travelling. Of the 28 major forex pairs, only a handful have their most recent weekly bar which overlaps fewer than the previous 4 weekly bars. Most of the charts with the smallest overlaps are GBP pairs. Almost everything else is stuck in a range where it was 2 or 3 months back. On a micro-scale, this will not have been missed by the players who could move price at the open: buying big this morning will lead to nothing, so why take the risk?
Why this happening? - No idea.
This is contrary to what I've seen in the past and to so much I've read about ORBO's. So what's going on, why and what can be done about it?
Last question first, what to do? - I'm not taking primary entry signals right now, just the reversal signals for when the break-out fails.
First question - what's going on? - On a longer time-frame the forex market is blocked. Prices are neither rising nor falling with any energy. This sounds counter-intuitive and strictly speaking impossible, price moves every second on all the major pairs, right? Yes, price moves, but it isn't travelling. Of the 28 major forex pairs, only a handful have their most recent weekly bar which overlaps fewer than the previous 4 weekly bars. Most of the charts with the smallest overlaps are GBP pairs. Almost everything else is stuck in a range where it was 2 or 3 months back. On a micro-scale, this will not have been missed by the players who could move price at the open: buying big this morning will lead to nothing, so why take the risk?
Why this happening? - No idea.
