splashy
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Thanks for that Tomorton, apologies for the late reply.
I measured ftse, eurusd, gbpusd and eurgbp on both 8-9 and 8-10 time frames, taking either 3pts (ftse,eurgbp) or 4pts slippage (gbpusd,eurusd) + spread. I also took the opposite signal if the price reversed back through the pattern and out the other side, so sometimes 2 signals per instrument per day. I therefore have around 80 working days of data for each instrument and on 2 separate time frames. Surprisingly for me, i found that the second trigger, the reverse, was consistently far more profitable than the first, even if the first trigger also reached target. I just wondered if anyone else had found this. I'm even considering purely trading a second signal where there is one and skipping the first.
Also, eurusd performed fantastically well especially on the 8-9charts, giving 14 winning weeks out of 15 (the 1 down week was just 2 pips!), until a couple of weeks ago when reality set in. Everything paid with the exception of GBPUSD which was down on the 8-10 time frame but then I have 3 systems and none of them have made much sense of cable since the new year anyway.
Of course, if you measure enough instruments, the odds are that something will always stand out so enthusiasm should be tempered with caution. Would love if someone could go back further than i can...
splashy - Thanks for this, really interesting, and good work.
Your comments on the effectiveness of the BB reverse are good, some posters here last autumn thought it had this sort of real potential, Flashy and others I think from memory. Since then I have read Mark Fisher's book setting out that he uses the reverse, using breach of a pivot zone to confirm the strength of the counter-movement.
You might have seen my post of a few days ago re a trader on another site - reporting a 61% win rate on GBP/USD since last September. BB will definitely work with such currency pairs. Of course, I had the idea last year that I would trade FTSE100, GBP/USD and EUR/USD simultaneously so that if one was under-performing, another would be out-performing. I didn't have time to keep it up, plus all the analysis, but it could be a viable strategy.
Your comments on the effectiveness of the BB reverse are good, some posters here last autumn thought it had this sort of real potential, Flashy and others I think from memory. Since then I have read Mark Fisher's book setting out that he uses the reverse, using breach of a pivot zone to confirm the strength of the counter-movement.
You might have seen my post of a few days ago re a trader on another site - reporting a 61% win rate on GBP/USD since last September. BB will definitely work with such currency pairs. Of course, I had the idea last year that I would trade FTSE100, GBP/USD and EUR/USD simultaneously so that if one was under-performing, another would be out-performing. I didn't have time to keep it up, plus all the analysis, but it could be a viable strategy.
bangkoker
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My much modified Ben Ben trailing system (little Ben) has had an interesting first two days:
So basically I am trialling a LB range of first 10 mins after 8am. Although I will see how it would cope on proper BB range. (only because I need to go to work before 8:30 and no internet signal for my phone at work)
I am setting a limit order of 40 pts (a more scientific approach based on ATR may be adopted at some point) and a stop of 15 pts (but importantly trailing) currently it is trailing at 15pts and therefore only moves in 15pt increments.
I would like a system with a more incremental approach (perhaps using MT4), ideally I would like a 15 pt stop that trailing closely behind. So as the trade moves into profit the stop moves up to breakeven. I would ideally like it to be at breakeven once the trade is 10pts in profit.
Then it would trail in 5pt increments (10 pts behind price), the idea obviously being that I either hit target at 40pts (occasionally) or get a smaller profit or smaller loss (with obviously a full loss
when price simply reverses straight off and takes out full loss.
The idea is that this stretches the R:R somewhat: As although there will be less out and out wins there should inevitably (especially if stronger trending market) be a smaller overall loss and the occasional larger win.
I did do something similar previously and that seem to work quite well. Don't want to divert from thread just wanted to share my thought process. As been checking back on BigBen regularly and like the concept.
:idea: It would obviously be lovely for it to achieve a +50% win rate. with an average loss of <15pts and average win of greater than that (which I hope it would be by the occasional hit of a higher limit, mixed with some trailing action).
Anyway:
Day 1 (yesterday) triggered me long. The market ran up circa 21pts and therefore took me out for breakeven when the market came back. With a better trail potential for a small win.
Day 2 (today) short. The market fell quite quickly and it wasn't long before stop was at +15pts.. unfortunately my stop got moved and then the market reversed into it (it went down to something like 5807, I think and moved my stop to 5821... the market reversed to 5822 (1 pt if only the retrace a little less deep) and then promptly went on to where the limit would have been hit circa 5797 (I was only demoing this as otherwise I would have been tempted to put limit just over the round number).
Sorry to prattle on Inspired by Big Ben strategy and how long everyone has worked on it. I like the idea of using this kind of system.
So basically I am trialling a LB range of first 10 mins after 8am. Although I will see how it would cope on proper BB range. (only because I need to go to work before 8:30 and no internet signal for my phone at work)
I am setting a limit order of 40 pts (a more scientific approach based on ATR may be adopted at some point) and a stop of 15 pts (but importantly trailing) currently it is trailing at 15pts and therefore only moves in 15pt increments.
I would like a system with a more incremental approach (perhaps using MT4), ideally I would like a 15 pt stop that trailing closely behind. So as the trade moves into profit the stop moves up to breakeven. I would ideally like it to be at breakeven once the trade is 10pts in profit.
Then it would trail in 5pt increments (10 pts behind price), the idea obviously being that I either hit target at 40pts (occasionally) or get a smaller profit or smaller loss (with obviously a full loss
when price simply reverses straight off and takes out full loss.The idea is that this stretches the R:R somewhat: As although there will be less out and out wins there should inevitably (especially if stronger trending market) be a smaller overall loss and the occasional larger win.
I did do something similar previously and that seem to work quite well. Don't want to divert from thread just wanted to share my thought process. As been checking back on BigBen regularly and like the concept.
:idea: It would obviously be lovely for it to achieve a +50% win rate. with an average loss of <15pts and average win of greater than that (which I hope it would be by the occasional hit of a higher limit, mixed with some trailing action).
Anyway:
Day 1 (yesterday) triggered me long. The market ran up circa 21pts and therefore took me out for breakeven when the market came back. With a better trail potential for a small win.
Day 2 (today) short. The market fell quite quickly and it wasn't long before stop was at +15pts..
unfortunately my stop got moved and then the market reversed into it (it went down to something like 5807, I think and moved my stop to 5821... the market reversed to 5822 (1 pt if only the retrace a little less deep) and then promptly went on to where the limit would have been hit circa 5797 (I was only demoing this as otherwise I would have been tempted to put limit just over the round number).Sorry to prattle on
Inspired by Big Ben strategy and how long everyone has worked on it. I like the idea of using this kind of system.
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bangkoker
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Yes, I am provisionally forward testing on demo. I will need to firm up the rules and look in to back testing. I suppose it is all about optimisation. I think as Tomorton has pointed out it is nice to have a system to personalise. The fact that Tomorton and others have worked so hard on this one and given some concrete numbers encourages me.
I am just keen to work with:
Letting profits run (to try to make the most out of a strong trend. Previously this worked well for me with the occasional 50pt++ move)
Not letting a winner (in my mind 10pts ish) turning in to a loss (maybe just a weakness of mine but I struggle with watching a move reverse.)
Oh well, I will report back if I get some worthwhile results. The problem I suppose is that although the R:R may improve, the win rate is likely to reduce somewhat.. I suppose it all really depends how often the trailing stop can manage to lock in a 15pt move and how infrequently a larger limit is hit.
bangkoker
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OK thanks PB that is interesting to know. Although my stop may be marginally wider, it's trailing nature may give less wiggle room. Anyway any extra info is all good.
bangkoker
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Yes agreed PB, that is why ideally I would like to do a limit based on a % of averaged daily range. Therefore hopefully retaining as much as the original BigBen strategy as possible but allowing it the freedom to 'run' on. Ideally the trailing stop will 'catch' some points when it gets into profit but doesn't hit the limit order.
We'll all be happier when it starts trending again. All the mechanical systems start working better. Just have to be patient.
I made the BBR today (0800-0900) on Caps 5831.8 to 5799.5 = 32.3. with 10d BBR Av 24.3, this is 1.32 x the Av, so goes against entry rule.
Of course, I sometimes see the Fins BBR slightly different to Caps' so it would be possible for two 10d Av's of same range to drift apart: you might see the range just inside 1.25x10dAv, I might see it just outside.
Of course, I sometimes see the Fins BBR slightly different to Caps' so it would be possible for two 10d Av's of same range to drift apart: you might see the range just inside 1.25x10dAv, I might see it just outside.
Oh, plus, although it's nice to keep watch on performance over a week, at least 4 weeks is needed to make any sense of how well you're doing. The system over the last 20 days is 9-8 with 3 no-trades and 1 Bank Holiday not traded, so barely ahead, but tomorrow's another day.
