This is something well worth exploring. Big Ben works best when the market has a large daily range and I will easily be able to start correlating ranges with days of the week, I just don't have much data yet on each day to be able to make a valid conclusion.
This is something well worth exploring. Big Ben works best when the market has a large daily range and I will easily be able to start correlating ranges with days of the week, I just don't have much data yet on each day to be able to make a valid conclusion.
Initial breakdown of BB results by day, though only 8 weeks data to play with -
Mon = 3/1/3/1
Tue = 3/2/2/1
Wed = 3/1/1/3
Thur = 2/3/1/2
Fri = 3/2/3/0
(where results are Winners/Losers/Expired/No trades)
Not enough data to change trading plan but at this stage the losers are clearly concentrating at the end of the week.
Mon = 3/1/3/1
Tue = 3/2/2/1
Wed = 3/1/1/3
Thur = 2/3/1/2
Fri = 3/2/3/0
(where results are Winners/Losers/Expired/No trades)
Not enough data to change trading plan but at this stage the losers are clearly concentrating at the end of the week.
Av. daily ranges by day over last 8 weeks -
Mon = 56
Tue = 72
Wed = 75
Thur = 77
Fri = 74
The interesting thing here is the lowerr av. range on Mondays, suggesting lower chance of a successful BB trade. Results aren't showing this, though the Expired trades total for Mondays is high.
Mon = 56
Tue = 72
Wed = 75
Thur = 77
Fri = 74
The interesting thing here is the lowerr av. range on Mondays, suggesting lower chance of a successful BB trade. Results aren't showing this, though the Expired trades total for Mondays is high.
Mr Flibble
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Tom found some data from Dukascopy which may aid you
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/historicaldata.php
Select your timeframe and scroll down the list and highlight FTSE. Data goes back over 1 year for H1. Now if I could just make it work with my testing software
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/historicaldata.php
Select your timeframe and scroll down the list and highlight FTSE. Data goes back over 1 year for H1. Now if I could just make it work with my testing software
First day trying the Big Ben today. Doing both GBP/USD and FTSE on a demo account. Question: Do you manage your trades when they are in at all or do you let them run to either Profit/Stop/Expire time? Also do you check SR levels before you place your BB orders to make sure you are not going to Buy into resistence/ Sell into support?
Jon
Jon
Jon
Perhaps I can answer these, though the final say is with tomorton, so these are my preferences only. Re FTSE I move my stop to b/e when half the target is reached, ie half BB range. I usually let the trade run to US close if still running, though sometimes I override this if the market looks like it's telling me to exit (though I would add that that my intervention usually costs me money!) I don't bother about resistance/support as BB break out is usually strong enough to penetrate both.
Perhaps I can answer these, though the final say is with tomorton, so these are my preferences only. Re FTSE I move my stop to b/e when half the target is reached, ie half BB range. I usually let the trade run to US close if still running, though sometimes I override this if the market looks like it's telling me to exit (though I would add that that my intervention usually costs me money!) I don't bother about resistance/support as BB break out is usually strong enough to penetrate both.
Thanks, Moving to BE is a pretty good idea i think. As for intervention i have intervened on both trades today to close them out. My GBP/USD was within half a point of TP before reversing. Fortunatley i checked in on it and closed it out for 24 points in the end. At the moment it is hovering at BE (but would have stopped out for 0 if my only intervention was to move stop to BE). I pulled my FTSE for 11 points as it really didnt look like it was going anywhere (but it has since moved on by a few more points - correction, just checked and its now back to where i pulled it).
Although today has been good for 35 points i worry about getting involved changing the outcome in a 1:1 RR particularly. Reason being if you potentialy cut you profits early in a 1:1 you might not be getting enough points to offset possible future losses.
Still its been a good start to the strategy and i am keeping a lot of stats on it to see how i do so looking forward to tomorrow now. I have also been looking at a few other currency pairs so might expand a bit next week.
Although today has been good for 35 points i worry about getting involved changing the outcome in a 1:1 RR particularly. Reason being if you potentialy cut you profits early in a 1:1 you might not be getting enough points to offset possible future losses.
Still its been a good start to the strategy and i am keeping a lot of stats on it to see how i do so looking forward to tomorrow now. I have also been looking at a few other currency pairs so might expand a bit next week.
Hi Mata Nui - I try to resist managing the trades in any way. I always look for back-testing and modifications to method will bring profit in the long run, but then I am rather poor at finessing maximum points from positions and if you're good at this it would make sense to use the tools you have.
Likewise I 100% ignore S/R levels when opening BB trades and setting stops and target order levels. Again, partly because I'm not good at it but if you have the skills, might be better to use them.
One word of caution - beware the old advice to avoid opening positions contrary to the prevailing trend. I have looked carefully over a couple of swing trading strategies to see what difference this makes: if you take out the big wins that came from counter-trend reversals, their performances droppped to about break-even over a long period. But if you lose often, you have to win big.
I'd like to find a way to make the BB r:r better than 1:1. the only viab le route I see so far is when the BB range is very tight compared to ATR: although such sessions are not common it seems possible to set the target at 2, 3 or even 4 times the BB range stop.
Likewise I 100% ignore S/R levels when opening BB trades and setting stops and target order levels. Again, partly because I'm not good at it but if you have the skills, might be better to use them.
One word of caution - beware the old advice to avoid opening positions contrary to the prevailing trend. I have looked carefully over a couple of swing trading strategies to see what difference this makes: if you take out the big wins that came from counter-trend reversals, their performances droppped to about break-even over a long period. But if you lose often, you have to win big.
I'd like to find a way to make the BB r:r better than 1:1. the only viab le route I see so far is when the BB range is very tight compared to ATR: although such sessions are not common it seems possible to set the target at 2, 3 or even 4 times the BB range stop.
Tomorton - How did your BB go today? FTSE looks like still going in small profit (about where i bailed earlier though). GBPUSD would either be a stop for win if you only used the 2pnt buffer on the entry or a stopped out loss if you added the spread to the buffer.
Interesting thing is i looked at some other pairs and just a quick glance it looks like:
EUR/USD - Still going small loss
AUD/USD - Stopped out loss
GBP/JPY - Easy win (+ same again at least)
USD/CAD - Easy win (+ same again at least)
USD/JPY - Still going small win
EUR/JPY - Easy win
Overall potentially a very good day.
[Edit] Also noticed just as you observed USD/CAD GBP/JPY look like BB range is less than 25 - 30 % ATR
Jon
Interesting thing is i looked at some other pairs and just a quick glance it looks like:
EUR/USD - Still going small loss
AUD/USD - Stopped out loss
GBP/JPY - Easy win (+ same again at least)
USD/CAD - Easy win (+ same again at least)
USD/JPY - Still going small win
EUR/JPY - Easy win
Overall potentially a very good day.
[Edit] Also noticed just as you observed USD/CAD GBP/JPY look like BB range is less than 25 - 30 % ATR
Jon
Yes, just got a win on narrow range GBP/USD BB trade today, and have closed my FTSE100 above break-even. I see you are racking up more currency pairs - I added GBP/USD as I needed to balance the FTSE's temporarily poor performance and that was the original use of the BB anyway, but the logical extension is to add in more markets so that there are good BB trades somewhere every day. Good work.
Baldeaglebloke
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Tomorton - thanks 2 winning trades on ftse for last two days. Have a top weekend
Good week for FTSE100 Big Ben trades -
3 winners, 1 expired positive, 1 expired negative
Over the last 4 weeks of FTSE100 Big Ben trades -
7 winners, 4 stopped out, 3 expired positive, 1 expired negative, 5 sessions with no trades.
A good week also for GBP/USD -
2 winners, 2 expired positive, 1 expired negative.
The last 4 weeks of GBP/USD BB trades -
6 winners, 3 stopped out, 8 expired positive, 2 expired negative, 1 session no trade.
The performances above are drawn from the charts only. In the real world I was lucky enough to convert one of the 2 expiring negative trades this week to a small winner by getting out early, so a very rewarding week for me with 9 gains and 1 small loss out of 10 trades.
Still happy with performances from this pattern and not proposing any further modifications to entry rules or position management at this stage.
If I had time at 10am I would love to cast an eye over other currency pairs and enter BB orders on them too, as per Mata Nui's messages, but I can only really take a few minutes from work at that time so 2 charts would be my limit if I'm in the office. Still, are other people also following other pairs for BB trades?
3 winners, 1 expired positive, 1 expired negative
Over the last 4 weeks of FTSE100 Big Ben trades -
7 winners, 4 stopped out, 3 expired positive, 1 expired negative, 5 sessions with no trades.
A good week also for GBP/USD -
2 winners, 2 expired positive, 1 expired negative.
The last 4 weeks of GBP/USD BB trades -
6 winners, 3 stopped out, 8 expired positive, 2 expired negative, 1 session no trade.
The performances above are drawn from the charts only. In the real world I was lucky enough to convert one of the 2 expiring negative trades this week to a small winner by getting out early, so a very rewarding week for me with 9 gains and 1 small loss out of 10 trades.
Still happy with performances from this pattern and not proposing any further modifications to entry rules or position management at this stage.
If I had time at 10am I would love to cast an eye over other currency pairs and enter BB orders on them too, as per Mata Nui's messages, but I can only really take a few minutes from work at that time so 2 charts would be my limit if I'm in the office. Still, are other people also following other pairs for BB trades?
Friday would have been a pretty good day if you had played other pairs. This week i have just been waching them. Over the weekend i hope to do some spreadsheets for the other pairs to make order entry easier and log the results. Next week i am aiming to play the following BB trades in the demo account:
EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and of course FTSE.
It looks like they hedge quite well giving either good points wins when things go well but only minor losses on not so good days (since hit rate looks to be > 60%). The other thing i have found is even what you might think would be correlated pairs with this system wont always give correlated results. Probably down to the different ATR/BB ranges meaning targets wont be the same. A loss on one correlated pair wont always result in a loss on others. These are just observations from loking at hourly charts and only forward testing will really tell but it looks worth a go.
Problems i can see are: Even at 2% risk per trade playing all pairs is a 16% commitment each day. Although probabilities say it shouldnt happen a very bad run would result in painful drawdown. It will also take a while to enter all the orders. If the close is at the high/low i might miss the entry.
question for tomorton.
I am guessing you cancel the reverse order when one is triggered (as i have been). Have you thought about or looked at what would happen if you left it. I can see several occasions accross the pairs this week where the reverse order would also have triggered (especially of first stopped out loss) and would have run either to TP or expired for a profit or small loss. Also some where you would have doubled your loss but really not many would do this.
EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and of course FTSE.
It looks like they hedge quite well giving either good points wins when things go well but only minor losses on not so good days (since hit rate looks to be > 60%). The other thing i have found is even what you might think would be correlated pairs with this system wont always give correlated results. Probably down to the different ATR/BB ranges meaning targets wont be the same. A loss on one correlated pair wont always result in a loss on others. These are just observations from loking at hourly charts and only forward testing will really tell but it looks worth a go.
Problems i can see are: Even at 2% risk per trade playing all pairs is a 16% commitment each day. Although probabilities say it shouldnt happen a very bad run would result in painful drawdown. It will also take a while to enter all the orders. If the close is at the high/low i might miss the entry.
question for tomorton.
I am guessing you cancel the reverse order when one is triggered (as i have been). Have you thought about or looked at what would happen if you left it. I can see several occasions accross the pairs this week where the reverse order would also have triggered (especially of first stopped out loss) and would have run either to TP or expired for a profit or small loss. Also some where you would have doubled your loss but really not many would do this.
Interesting stuff Mata Nui. I have only been watching GBP/USD for the last 5 weeks from the BB viewpoint: I see one day when both FTSE100 and GBP/USD triggered BB trades and both went on to hit their stops. I figure that the probability of 8 markets all going to stops on the same day is much much lower. However, it could occur on Day 1 of an 8-market BB programnme, and could even be repeated on Day 2. That would leave a big hole in any account. I guess the positions need to be minimal until a sound cushion of profit has been built up. I do tend to think that it's actually safer starting with all 8 markets at once, rather than what I have done, which is trading one, then adding another and then another etc.
BUT - each of the 8 markets must not correlate with another - a correlation would effectively mean trading 7 markets, one of them with a double-sized risk. Correlation could be difficult to gauge as we're talking about dynamics on the BB time-frame - this might not be the usual straightforward Close:Close relationship.
Question - Do I cancel the opposite entry order? - Yes (the only time I forgot to do this I incurred a double loss. Grrr!)
Being at work most days, I don't have time to monitor the possibilities of the double and I have to say I think your earlier suggestion of diversification is a better enhancement - I personally favour minimising risk before maximising profit.
BUT - each of the 8 markets must not correlate with another - a correlation would effectively mean trading 7 markets, one of them with a double-sized risk. Correlation could be difficult to gauge as we're talking about dynamics on the BB time-frame - this might not be the usual straightforward Close:Close relationship.
Question - Do I cancel the opposite entry order? - Yes (the only time I forgot to do this I incurred a double loss. Grrr!)
Being at work most days, I don't have time to monitor the possibilities of the double and I have to say I think your earlier suggestion of diversification is a better enhancement - I personally favour minimising risk before maximising profit.
Of course, I have to admit not feeling really good about myself taking all this money out of the markets. Some people say that Big Ben is a technical strategy in a market that is entirely driven by fundamental newsflow. I have heard that high gold and high indices tell of us that the market is completely f****ed; the dollar collapsing tells us all we need to know about confidence in the world's biggest economy, which will drive the FTSE as it always does, and we have some of the lowest volumes ever seen in October. I'm wondering if this is not the best time to be playing around with technical strategies? It seems quite likely someone is just waiting to drop the bottom out of this market and rake it in on the shorts - not me of course, I have neither the money nor the contacts to create this sort of ripple or panic confidence sufficiently on these low volumes, nor do I know if or when this will occur. Perhaps all this business of short stops and scalping in this market really is just gambling, not trading.
Quick visual check over 14 major Forex pairs (excl GBP/USD) over the last 3-4wks suggests positive return but not much of an edge - 10 pairs had more targets hit than stops, 2 pairs had tied winners and losers and 2 had more stops hit than targets. Altogether, 114 targets hit, 94 stops hit. Expiring trades normally closed positive, but, ignoring expired trades, win rate only 55%.
I suppose this suggests target (of BB range) too far out?
I suppose this suggests target (of BB range) too far out?
Which are the 4 pairs to avoid? (Losers and tied)
My thinking isnt really that more pairs = more points but more that more pairs means that hopefully you wont get those really down days when both hit the stop and your down about 80 points. I do see a lot more expire for small profit/loss with some of the pairs and a LOT of close calls within a few points of a win before reversing. I really wouldnt want to make the R:R less than 1:1 though.
I am going to demo 7 pairs + ftse this week (Sorted my spreadsheets over the weekend) and will also record how many points left on the table/short or target and what the reverse order would have done.
My thinking isnt really that more pairs = more points but more that more pairs means that hopefully you wont get those really down days when both hit the stop and your down about 80 points. I do see a lot more expire for small profit/loss with some of the pairs and a LOT of close calls within a few points of a win before reversing. I really wouldnt want to make the R:R less than 1:1 though.
I am going to demo 7 pairs + ftse this week (Sorted my spreadsheets over the weekend) and will also record how many points left on the table/short or target and what the reverse order would have done.
Hi Mata Nui - I see where you're coming from but I didn't note the best performers or the worst - if BB works at all it is through its reponse to inherent market mechanics so I would not believe any particular pair or index would behave less predictably over any lengthy period. Of course, some will be performing well and some badly on any day, and this is where the diversification work you are to do could pay dividends: hard to believe all 8 instruments could go against you on the same day. The best indicator I can see so far is the ATR of the respective instrument - BB needs a wide range to work with the big target and stop I use - narrow ATR normally means a trade will expire between stop and target, usually nearer target, but sometimes reverse to the stop. Of course, some charts will be in narrow ATR mode at any one time, but not all I hope.
