Big Ben on the FTSE100

Not a great performance for Big Ben today. FTSE100 triggered long as jimmc says, but has since ranged about halfway back into the BB range. I've just cut my losses and exited: it could have got back to b/e but it certainly was not going to get to target.

Short triggered on GBP/USD, and this is also about halfway back into its BB range, frightened to come out. I am letting this run until late evening but will get out then for whatever profit I can see.
 
Frustrating day for Big Ben trades yesterday but no major losses. FTSE100 either never showed a breakout or did so long but only technically by a fraction of a point (with a bit more slippage built into the order, I would have not been entered at this point). It then expired negative without hitting the stop-loss. GBP/USD also showed a narrow BB range and narrow daily range, breaking out short and expiring slightly positive.

Dull, dull, dull. But then again, if you find you're getting a good dose of adrenaline from trading, you're probably doing it wrong.
 
tomorton said:
Incidentally, FTSE100 ATR now up 1 to 77, GBP/USD remains 154.
Click to expand...

Good morning and congrats on all your work here. Ref the ATR's I know what they are but I think from the thread you're taking the ATR from the FTSE 100 and not the range on the spread betting platform. Where do you physically get the ATR from without setting a spreadsheet to do a manual calc?

Also your movement between 8 & 10 - is this the movement from the spread betting company rolling daily?

Sorry if I'm appearing slow and have read (and reread) the thread.

Regards:)
 
Hi Baldeaglebloke - Thanks for your interest.

I get ATR from EOD high-low ranges of underlying instrument - FTSE100 or GBP/USD. Actually I get these through my evening Sharescope update which reports only OHLC per day so I have to calculate the H-L range per day and average over the standard 14-day period for ATR. If the underlying market is closed but SB market remains open (e.g. August Bank Holiday), I assumed the current ATR as the H-L range for that day.

The Big Ben range however is from the SB tick chart, not the underlying instrument. I'm not saying this is 100% accurate, but it is quick and easy. A Rolling Daily quote should not be more than a couple of ticks from the underlying price and any inaccuracies here could as easily work for me as against me.
 
tomorton said:
Hi Baldeaglebloke - Thanks for your interest.

I get ATR from EOD high-low ranges of underlying instrument - FTSE100 or GBP/USD. Actually I get these through my evening Sharescope update which reports only OHLC per day so I have to calculate the H-L range per day and average over the standard 14-day period for ATR. If the underlying market is closed but SB market remains open (e.g. August Bank Holiday), I assumed the current ATR as the H-L range for that day.

The Big Ben range however is from the SB tick chart, not the underlying instrument. I'm not saying this is 100% accurate, but it is quick and easy. A Rolling Daily quote should not be more than a couple of ticks from the underlying price and any inaccuracies here could as easily work for me as against me.
Click to expand...

Many thanks for the explanation - I calculated from Yahoo finance the highs/lows, worked the range out and then averaged over the last 14 periods - I get 81.6 whereas you get 77 - I don't understand why there should be a difference unless we're comparing apples with pears?
 
Some sources, including Yahoo, use yesterday's close as today's open, so they cannot print an overnight gap. Sharescope does display overnight gaps, as I think they get their first FTSE100 data from 08:02 or 08:03am. As such, Sharescope will always be giving a daily range less than (or at least no greater) than Yahoo.

But your point makes me wonder which is the better indication of volatility. Now you mention it, it seems strange to regard a market as being low volatility as measured by ATR, because H-L ranges are tight, whereas there could be a series of overnight gaps of even more points concealed from my ATR calculations. Thanks for flagging this up.
 
Try googling "Average True Range" and then look at www.stockcharts.com My understanding is you have to take the maximum of the 3 variables, then do another fairly simple calculation to get to the right figure. I had 75.78 for this morning's figure.

Today was painful!
 
Yep first day trading both ......... and both lost but each also had some profit at some stage. Will continue trading with real money (small stakes) as paper trading or demo accounts just doesn't do it for me - you can be too aggressive or flexible with the rules - a stake, no matter how small enables me to ensure that the rules are followed. I'll do some research unless anyone has already done it on the number of PIPS available once the breakout has occurred to see whether this has the scope just for scalping. After all I'd settle for a net 10pips per day
 
I think most people see this as a method for getting a fixed bag of points/pips. It could turn out to be the way to make it pay most consistently. Good luck.
 
Yeah hasn't been going too well for me recently but I still have confidence in the system, just the markets don't always behave. :D
 
I have been logging the best possible points that cuold have been bagged from Big Ben trades to see what would have been achievable with a fixed profit target, as opposed to my suggested practice of using the BB range itself to identify a different profit target each trade.

On the FTSE100, over that last 39 sessions, the best points achieved on days when the stop-loss was activated have been 18 (yesterday), 2, 5, 12, 3, 9, 4 and 6 - average 7pts. These are figures derived from charts including price action both before and after the stop was hit. To me, these figures suggest that looking for a decent fixed points target on BB trades, say 10pts, would rarely allow an exit with profit in a 'losing' session. Not enough data yet to make conclusions on the GBP/USD.

For now, I will continue to use the BB range for that session as that session''s profit target and stop-looss.
 
Still, something must be done about this system. When I do my weekend round-up I will put up a rolling score, over the preceding 20 full trades - i.e. trades which closed on either stop-loss or profit target (BB range in both cases). I am ignoring days on which there was no trade due to excessive BB range compared with ATR and also days when the trade expired at the US close without hitting either exit order.

So far, performance on this basis is deteriorating but remains well inside positive territory - fuller details over the weekend.
 
To no-one in particular:
You are trading technical strategies in a market that is entirely driven by fundamental newsflow. Dumb man, really dumb. Look at the dollar and gold. Then run away until the market starts behaving. High gold and high indices should tell all of you that the market is completely f****ed, the dollar collapsing should tell you all you need to know about confidence in the worlds biggest economy, which will drive the ftse as it always does, and we have some of the lowest volumes ever seen in October. Ever get the feeling this is not the best time to be playing around with technical strategies? Its likely someone is just waiting to drop the bottom out of this market and rake it in on the shorts - but thats not you, you have neither the money nor the contacts to create this sort of ripple or panic confidence sufficiently on these low volumes, nor do you know if or when this will occur. As for short stops and scalping in this market - thats just gambling, its not trading. Frankly stupid.
 
Weekly update on Big Ben's performance.

A poor week for the FTSE - 1 win, 3 stopped out, 1 no trade. GBP/USD did a little better - 2 wins, 1 stopped out, 1 expired positive, 1 no trade.

FTSE100 - last 20 completed trades -
12 hit profit target, 8 stopped out: net gain +171pts.
In same overall period, another 8 trades expired at US Close without hitting either (6 positive, 2 negative), and on 5 days no trade was taken due to BB exceeding 80%ATR.

GBP/USD - only 11 completed trades to report so far -
8 hit profit target, 3 stopped out: net gain +201pips.
In same overall period, another 8 trades expired at midnight without hitting either (6 positive, 2 negative), and on 1 day no trade was taken due to BB exceeding 80%ATR.
 
jsc said:
To no-one in particular:
You are trading technical strategies in a market that is entirely driven by fundamental newsflow. Dumb man, really dumb. Look at the dollar and gold. Then run away until the market starts behaving. High gold and high indices should tell all of you that the market is completely f****ed, the dollar collapsing should tell you all you need to know about confidence in the worlds biggest economy, which will drive the ftse as it always does, and we have some of the lowest volumes ever seen in October. Ever get the feeling this is not the best time to be playing around with technical strategies? Its likely someone is just waiting to drop the bottom out of this market and rake it in on the shorts - but thats not you, you have neither the money nor the contacts to create this sort of ripple or panic confidence sufficiently on these low volumes, nor do you know if or when this will occur. As for short stops and scalping in this market - thats just gambling, its not trading. Frankly stupid.
Click to expand...

I think that you are throwing a pretty wide net. Mechanical, or technical trading does work, and on Footsie, too. However, Tom's Big Ben is using a very wide range which, if wrong, hurts. You must remember that small fry. like me, can only survive by getting in or out of a winning trade ahead of, where we believe, the big money is going to get in or out. Tom is trying something for his own benefit. Nothing stupid about that. Where I disagree with him is that he uses the 1000 limit as a line, whereas I consider these areas as zones. These zones can cover a very wide area and that is where the Big Money comes in. It has a higher pain level that the small guy cannot tolerate.
 
Don't know about most people, but my system relies on a bit of a trend (like you I think bankoker, and thank you for your welcome earlier), and I can't fiddle with it much during the day when I'm at work. Recently things have been dire (140 odd points down this week - my second worst ever).

Do those with a bit more experience think the FTSE can be a bit seasonal. i.e. are there some months that will consistently be worse or better than others?
 
Hello Tom I love these type of threads I'd like to suggest you take a look at the market and the different characteristics of each day. I would strongly suggest that Monday would be the best day for this strategy and Wednesday by far the worst. Monday tends to trend more and Wednesday = whipsaws and the like. If someone could provide me with hourly FTSE data I'd be very happy to test and tweak (hiding data to avoid data shaping) I need a strategy for the FTSE and I could give many hours to this with the right data.
 
jimmc said:
Don't know about most people, but my system relies on a bit of a trend (like you I think bankoker, and thank you for your welcome earlier), and I can't fiddle with it much during the day when I'm at work. Recently things have been dire (140 odd points down this week - my second worst ever).

Do those with a bit more experience think the FTSE can be a bit seasonal. i.e. are there some months that will consistently be worse or better than others?
Click to expand...


Even if we knew this, not helpful anyway.
 
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