barjon
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Don't be greedy, Tomo :cheesy: If that turns out to be a consistent and continuing performance it'd be a nice little earner.
good trading
jon
Don't be greedy, Tomo :cheesy: If that turns out to be a consistent and continuing performance it'd be a nice little earner.
good trading
jon
I do notice that forex players of range strategies like Big Ben more often look for a modest gain in pips rather than a gain equivalent to the full range of the set-up pattern: they set their stop at the same or a lesser number of pips the opposite direction. Even though they abandon the support/resistance levels printed by the set-up range, a more modest pip target might improve win rate.
You could play with porcentages!
I think we both know that's a slippery slope through self-delusion, towards megalomania and probably ultimately paranoia. I know that percentages don't lie because 86.3% of oildaytrader's posts say so.
Reviewed last 3 weeks using BB on GBP/USD Rolling Daily. Win rate slightly better than my earlier estimate - using BB range 0800-1000 as target and stop as usual - 6 target hit, 2 stopped out, 5 expired positive at midnight, 2 expired neg: no BB ranges above 80% of ATR, so all sessions generated a trade.
Net from trades with target or stop hit = +199 pips.
Looks well worth the risk without further modifications.
Net from trades with target or stop hit = +199 pips.
Looks well worth the risk without further modifications.
Comparison of last 3 weeks back-test on GBP/USD v's FTSE100. Overall, up 199 pips on the forex, down 25pts on FTSE.
w/e 01/10
GBP/USD = -73 pips
FTSE100 = +30pts
w/e 24/09
GBP/USD = +53 pips
FTSE100 = +25pts
w/e 17/09
GBP/USD = +219 pips
FTSE100 = -86pts
Suggests one is reasonable hedge for the other. Needs more monitoring though. Also probably wise to use smaller position per pip than per FTSE point.
w/e 01/10
GBP/USD = -73 pips
FTSE100 = +30pts
w/e 24/09
GBP/USD = +53 pips
FTSE100 = +25pts
w/e 17/09
GBP/USD = +219 pips
FTSE100 = -86pts
Suggests one is reasonable hedge for the other. Needs more monitoring though. Also probably wise to use smaller position per pip than per FTSE point.
BB FTSE100 did not trigger so far today so I have cancelled entry orders at about 1:30pm. Looked suspicious anyway with such a large fall through the 0700-1000hrs and a wide BB range.
Placed standard BB orders at 10 on GBP/USD Rolling Daily and this however triggered a long, which is two-thirds of the way towards target. I have moved SL to b/e, which I don't normally but I have not yet seen enough of these daily charts to be more confident.
Placed standard BB orders at 10 on GBP/USD Rolling Daily and this however triggered a long, which is two-thirds of the way towards target. I have moved SL to b/e, which I don't normally but I have not yet seen enough of these daily charts to be more confident.
Ignoring the FTSE Big Ben trade yesterday proved entirely correct - price bounced off the lower boundary and breached the upper, then fell all the way back to breach the lower: so there was no Big Ben break-out but two reverse Big Bens. Which is worrying because the set-up did not breach my entry rules, it just 'looked' wrong.
GBP/USD was more straightforward, with a classic BB breakout and target hit before 3pm.
GBP/USD was more straightforward, with a classic BB breakout and target hit before 3pm.
Hi tomorton, I'm really enjoying following this thread. You seem to have the makings of a good system (compared to anything I'm using anyway). I tried to calculate the ATR the other day but my results were way different to yours. Re-reading the older posts I see you are using figures from the real index, whereas I was using the figures from my SB charts, but I'm surprised it made so much difference - seems to be about 10-15 higher.
Cheers jimmc - This is the most successful strategy I have tried and the only one successful intra-day. I am also happy to say I put no more than about 10 minutes oer market into this per day so even if the points score isn't astronomical, the cost-effectiveness is great.
I have to say it's not my invention but modifications - target, application to the FTSE100, the ATR-sensitive rules, timing exits and hedging using GBP/USD - are my own.
ATR from the underlying index is taken from 0800-1630. ATR from the tick chart for the FTSE would be a 24hr period, so it ought to be greater over any period of days.
I have to say it's not my invention but modifications - target, application to the FTSE100, the ATR-sensitive rules, timing exits and hedging using GBP/USD - are my own.
ATR from the underlying index is taken from 0800-1630. ATR from the tick chart for the FTSE would be a 24hr period, so it ought to be greater over any period of days.
COINMOUNTAIN
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hi big ben
What is the ATR and how can i use it for ftse and cable trades?
regards michael
What is the ATR and how can i use it for ftse and cable trades?
regards michael
Hi there, intriguing system this BIg Ben esp. as it seems to take only a certain amount of time to set up. Is there any chance of sharing it? If ,of course, there has been a great deal of effort in developing the strategy and its testing I will fully understand your reluctance to share.
Best regards,
Vin
Best regards,
Vin
barjon
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Vin
It's all in the thread - see post 1 and tomorton's modifiers at http://www.trade2win.com/boards/uk-indices/101982-big-ben-ftse100-39.html#post1263768
jon
barjon
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ATR = average true range
It's a measure of the past volatility in the instrument and thus what volatility is to be expected.
jon
The method itself seems to come from usage on the GBP/USD market. It was popularised in a Currency Trader magazine article in 2004 by Kristian Kerr. Google will find a copy of this, but the basic methiod, plus the on-going modifications are all in the thread. As often found, the basic strategy will help pretty well with entries but what money you make comes from personal experience of the system's actual use and the little tweeks you can add to it. Some readers will wring more points than I will try for from this method - I want it to be just a low risk set-and-forget system.
Incidentally, ATRs for FTSE and GBP/USD today are 76 and 154, so if Big Ben ranges are > / = 61 and 123 respectively, I will regard that as excessively risky and pass on that trade. If BB ranges are = / < 19 and 39 respectively, I will take them but hope for a larger profit target from the breakout than just the BB range itself, 3 x BB range on the FTSE, though probably only 2 x BB range on the GBP/USD.
