belflan's US stock pair trades

[belflan]

i wonder if i should broaden the watch list stock filters to allow more stocks in,

this would give me more choice, and hopefully would allow me to be entering long with lower macci's' and short with higher macci's

hmm, i've currently got about 60 stocks with each watch list (may add to the number i monitor.)

belflan

 

[belflan]

the entries and exits (with ref to the indu) shown on attacted

entries at around 4.05pm and just before close

double arrows

 

[belflan]

tried to open two longs on last 10min macci turn

not sure what happen but my orders were not fill on sim a/c

not sure how many positions you can have opened on sim a/c?

 

[belflan]

short

MRVL AND CERN

sim a/c still not trading orders

 

[belflan]

double arrows show entries long and then short

 

[belflan]

running total = -$1,575

most of this is the spike up in BRCM

belflan

 

[belflan]

radar's showing open positions and possible entries for tomorrow.

I will stop adding to the number of positions once there is 10 positions opened each side

 

[belflan]

attached is my radar's now including the N Minute change.

the N minute change more often that not contradicts the MACCI send (i.e. the stocks that are o/s on the MACCI therefore (are strong) are showing weakness in relation to the market on the N minute.

hmm, not sure how to tackle this

may be another thread trading the the same way only trading off the N minute (the one with the most profit after one year i trade live maybe?)

belflan

 

[belflan]

still not sure what too do here,

I can either;

1. start another thread and track a long short /portiflio using day n minute change on its own. (and also track this thread trading off the MACCI for exits/entries
2. Use the both indacitors for entries/exits on this thread, but make one of the indacitors over ride the other.

anyone any thoughts

looking at the attachment it would seem silly to be opening a short on OMCL with a MACCI of -145 or a long PDE with a MACCI of +107

i think i may have just answered my own question

I think Grey1 would have the n minute over ride the MACCI in this strat (but I'm not sure)

belflan

 

[rajibde]

attached is my radar's now including the N Minute change.

the N minute change more often that not contradicts the MACCI send (i.e. the stocks that are o/s on the MACCI therefore (are strong) are showing weakness in relation to the market on the N minute.

hmm, not sure how to tackle this

may be another thread trading the the same way only trading off the N minute (the one with the most profit after one year i trade live maybe?)

belflan

Hi Belfan- OS stock is OS due to its weakness imho and consequently should show weak in the N-minute (no contradiction there). The way I try to spot 'increasing strength' or a turn is when the weak stock in Nminute starts stepping down towards indu and a corresponding turn up of the macci. The idea is not bottom fishing but to go in when the strength starts to pick up
Hope it helps.

Raj

 

[Charlton]

still not sure what too do here,

I can either;

1. start another thread and track a long short /portiflio using day n minute change on its own. (and also track this thread trading off the MACCI for exits/entries
2. Use the both indacitors for entries/exits on this thread, but make one of the indacitors over ride the other.

anyone any thoughts

looking at the attachment it would seem silly to be opening a short on OMCL with a MACCI of -145 or a long PDE with a MACCI of +107

i think i may have just answered my own question

I think Grey1 would have the n minute over ride the MACCI in this strat (but I'm not sure)

belflan

Belflan

I think it is worth going back to first principles. We know the code for MACCI. it is a 6 period CCI which in turn is smoothed over 5 periods (using the default inputs)

A description of CCI can be found here

Commodity Channel Index (CCI) - StockCharts.com

We know that it is designed to show overbought and oversold conditions based upon whether it figures around the -/+ 100 mark.

We don't have access to the code behind the N minute change, but Grey1 has told us that the ATR column is not true ATR but is based on volatility envelopes. However for the moment let's assume it is ATR and represents volatility. A description of ATR can be found here
Average True Range (ATR) - StockCharts.com

I think of the ATR as a movement of price between 2 points in time, whereas CCI is like a position of current price compared to an average over the 2 points in time. Thus we might have an overbought or oversold stock that has remained in that state for some time and has not exhibited volatility, but it's probably like a volcano about to blow.

As Raj said, as the N minute ATR column moves in relation to the INDU then I would expect the steady state to become more unstable and the os/ob state to alter. If the ATR is far from the INDU I would expect the stock to be moving faster towards a new ob/os state.

Charlton

 

[belflan]

Hi Belfan- OS stock is OS due to its weakness imho and consequently should show weak in the N-minute (no contradiction there).

my thinking was if the stock is o/s its strong, everyones selling we're buying

The way I try to spot 'increasing strength' or a turn is when the weak stock in Nminute starts stepping down towards indu and a corresponding turn up of the macci. The idea is not bottom fishing but to go in when the strength starts to pick up
Hope it helps.

Raj

yeah, i see your logic here,

wonder what Grey1's thoughts are,

i can remember him saying sometime about my entries in my swing thread, along the lines of, enter based on the N minute change figure of the stocks being strong in relation to the market (if long) and use the MACCI as a secondary tool (i.e. if you have 20stocks that are stronger than the indu on the N change then pick the 10 stocks with the lowest MACCI value)

cheers
thanks for the imput as always

belflan

 

[belflan]

wonder what Grey1's thoughts are,

ok, before Grey1 comes rushing in with a 'how many times have i to tell you!' post

attached his comments on the MACCI and N minute he made on the swing thread.

belflan

 

[rajibde]

my thinking was if the stock is o/s its strong, everyones selling we're buying



yeah, i see your logic here,

wonder what Grey1's thoughts are,

i can remember him saying sometime about my entries in my swing thread, along the lines of, enter based on the N minute change figure of the stocks being strong in relation to the market (if long) and use the MACCI as a secondary tool (i.e. if you have 20stocks that are stronger than the indu on the N change then pick the 10 stocks with the lowest MACCI value)

cheers
thanks for the imput as always

belflan

I would expect a stock which is being sold off at a rate greater than the market sell off to be 'weaker' than the Indu in N Minutes. Now at some point in time this stock MACCI goes to OS- this again is perfectly normal.
But there is no gurantee that this stock will not continue to be OS for some more time.
Now if one fine day I find that the stock is becoming stronger in the N Minute i.e. stepping down (remember-N minutes is sorted by atr's?) -this would indicate that it is gaining strength IN RELATION TO THE MARKET. Once it drops below Indu- it's time to go long IF THE market direction permits.

Raj

Just read your post with G1's attachment-just to add- my above line of thought is for the swing trades specifically i.e while narrowing down my choices to a few shares to enter from the daily TFs this will be my logic; to make the actual entry for the day, it will be the standard 10 min INDU + the capitulation/euphoria technique.

 

[belflan]

thanks gents,

after re-reading Grey1s post above this is what I'm going to do;

entries shall be stocks that are showing strength (long) or weakness (short) on the N change, with the lowest (long) highest (short) MACCI values.

eg. todays trades will be = long FLSR & NSC short NVDA and CTXS (or maybe MGM, WB for shorts)

to keep the forward test as realistic as possible the open trades at present will have to be traded out off

cheers
belflan

 

[belflan]

GE maybe a good short also

weak to market with macci of +88

 

[belflan]

two longs open off the 30 & 10min indu macci

will open shorts later today

 

[belflan]

two shorts opened

 

[belflan]

running total = -$2,546

early days ( have been hit with two spikes against me AMX and BRCM totalling -$3,582 on these positions, this shouldn;t matter in the long run tho)

belflan

 

[belflan]

opened longs and shorts

& entry pick lists for Monday

belflan