BBmac's Gbpusd thread

[bbmac]

Pullback off 6880 area

So price pulls back sharply off the 6880 offers within that prev wkly sw lo =pot sbr zone on that t/f...and pretty perfect Regular divergence and Band deviation based Reversal set-ups to 15min, the 5min shown below. Notice how the top oscillator didn't make it back above it's zero axis as price made a HH and how the blue bol band (shortest) came inside the white (second shortest) showing a decrease in volatility at the HH with the oscillators showing a slowing down in momentum with their divergence from price.

G/L
(5min Reversal B)

 

[bbmac]

Convincing 4hr asc channel break?

1hr has just closed as a pinbar, ...would have been better in a definate 4hr previous swing hi =prev res=pot res or sw lo=prev supp=pot sbr zone though ie next higher t/f, although there is definate bearish divergence in 1hr oscillators..

Convincing upside break of the 4hr ascending channel after the false downside break @ point a ?? Time will tell

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Price finds support at the top of that 6810/15 bids area highlighted by Mni and replicated in post # 17 above, and this time after the extended pullback a 5min hidden divergence/band deviation based re-entry set-up. There was no real 1min repeating trigger set-up for this entry but price tested the area several times visible on 1min. I rejected the set-up for this reason, and beacuse I prefer a repeating Re-entry [to next t/f trend after a pullback] set-up to occur at a definate rbs zone on that higher t/f.

Will price go on to make a HH on 1hr/new intraday hi from this level? I don't know but asa word of caution there is regular divergence extending 15min - 1hr with extreme oscillator readings on 4hr...that said at 184 lo-hi pip range so far today, price is within it's current 200pip average daily range, and uptrend has been strong.

G/L

(5min Re-entry 1)

 

[bbmac]

Just back @ desk for 1/2hr after finishing own trading session earlier at 12 midday. Re post above...So ultimately price found support at those 6810/15 bids for another leg-up after a further re-test, the 1500pm U.s PMI data release see-ing further $ selling, price just printing a new yearly Hi @ 6973 as I write this. Price remains now deeper in that Prev weekly Sw Lo=prev supp=potential sbr zone around that 50% of the 2.0395-1.3505 fib.

Price remains above the Monthly, Weekly and Daily calculated pivots in an uptrend 5min-weekly t/f. @ 279 pips today lo-hi, Price is now 79pips in excess of it's current 200pip average daily range.


G/L

 

[bbmac]

1hr chart update

The 1hr screenshot below is the updated current position as I see it in respect of previous obvious near-term imbalances of supp/dem (swing hi's) and dem/supp (swing lo's) and fibs/trend lines on this t/f.

The fibs are drawn to the current hi from 6337, 6471 and today's current lo @ 6694.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

50% of 2.1162-1.3505 in view now

That 50% fib of the main 2.1162-1.3505 fall is in view as shown on screenshot below and as is shown there the area leading up to it is a previous swing hi then lo zone on this Monthly t/f.

The monthly t/f is still in a downtrend...Anyone thinking there might be some sellers there (lol) ??

G/L

 

[alan5616]

When do you think we will turn around because there is just no stopping it!

Hi Dan,

I realise that I'm interjecting into this thread, started by bbmac, so won't make any further posts.

A final word of very good advice before I go. Don't worry too much about where it will turn around or try and calculate where it will end. Many traders have gone broke trying to pick market tops and bottoms. The US$ has been weak against all the major currencies since Apr/May. The world's equity markets are in a strong uptrend and, until, or unless, this reverses, the $ will remain weak.

GBP/USD has gained 6 cents in 3 trading sessions, which has added to the substantial momentum of this upward trend. Price action is telling you everything you need to know about many currency pairs, at the moment. You don't need lagging technical indicators, Fibonacci lines, Gann lines, Elliott Wave etc. to see momentum or market sentiment. Look for swing lows/highs and support and resistance and you have all you need to make money from cable at present.

Yet another excellent day for us day traders based, purely, on price action.

 

[bbmac]

More talk of the top

They do keep calling for the top. lol

0709 GMT [Dow Jones] GBP/USD runs into some good sized offers at 1.70, quickly falling back to 1.6975. In the Asian session the rate peaked at 1.7004 so there is definitely someone on top. Commerzbank's Karen Jones says there is some divergence on the hourly charts on the move to 1.70 so allow for corrective dips toward 1.6850 and 1.6735. However she says the market will remain directly bid above 1.6560 and any move above 1.7050 will target 1.7330. GBP/USD now at 1.6960. (GST)

Talk on newsfeed of barrier interest @ 7010?

 

[bbmac]

1hr chart update

Price finds resistance at those 7000/05 offers (around asian hi and reported barrier interest mentioned above) selling off sharply from the new HH to find support at the previous 1hr swing lo=prev support=potential suppoprt zone shown in screenshot below. A pullback from there finding some resistance at the 38.2% fib of the fall

The 1hr screenshot below is the current position as I see it in respect of previous obvious near-term imbalances of supp/dem (swing hi's) and dem/supp (swing lo's) and fibs/trend lines on this t/f. Fibs are drawn from 6471 and 6693 to the Hi on this t/f, others on 4hr chart.

More market commentary below:

0744 GMT [Dow Jones] Don't expect US data later in the day to help the USD, says Calyon. Personal income is expected to have contracted last month, but this is due to the end of fiscal payments and should be priced in by the markets. Also pending home sales, which are forecast to rise by 0.5%, should mirror firm new home sales data. "There will be little motivation for USD shorts to panic," the bank says. (NEH)

Contact us in London. +44-20-7842-9464
[email protected]

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Daily t/f potential rbs now

The Daily t/f chart below shows that previous swing hi that is now potential rbs. This zone is c-existant with a similar 4hr zone that extends 6745-6644 and in the zone is the 50% fib of the 6337-7003 rise, as well as some of the minor swsings up shown on 1hr chart in post above.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

The screenshot below shows the 5min insidebar candle that formed at that 1hr potential support zone shown above on the 2nd test of the zoen following the sell off from current intraday highs just above 7000...the 15min also set-up with a pinbar later.

Note how the 2 x shorter setting bols came inside the longer settings implying a lessening of volatility in the downmove and that combined with the bearish divergence in the oscillators combined with the price action candle trigger @ potential support (2nd test-double bottom potential) made for a nice entry to go back long.

As I write this price has stalled on the strong recovery around the 76.4% fib of the intraday fall.

G/L

(5min Reversal B)

 

[bbmac]

76.4% of intraday fall halts recovery momentum

CABLE: Recovery off pullback lows at $1.6910 extends to $1.6975 with
tone currently retaining a firm feel, one trader suggests. Next band of
offers seen placed between $1.6980/85, a break above to allow for a
retest on the area above $1.7000. Earlier suggestions linked offers here
to protection of a $1.7010 barrier.


The above was the Mni update that suggested the offers around that 76.4% of that 7002-6909...at which point the 5min chart was ranging after a HH,L,LH,=L and H @ that 76.4%. The 1min chart developed into a repeating reversal set-up similar to the 5min that developed at the pullback lows 6909 area...it is shown below.

93 the intraday hi-lo pip range so far today, 217 the average now.

G/L

(1min Rev B)

 

[bbmac]

5min ranging at the moment

5min is my intermediate t/f in a 1min/5min/30min configuration-triple t/f analysis ie trigger/intermediate/trend t/f's. (I use the 1hr as proxy for 30min trend t/f just in respect of potential supp/res) Currently 5min is ranging...what does this mean ?...well I won't be looking for any 1min hidden divergence based re-entries @ 5min potential sbr/rbs as there is no trend on this next higher t/f in which to re-enter after a pullback...repeating reversal set-ups only on 1min trigger until a trend re-establishes on this 5min t/f.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

1hr-some consolidation now....Scenario a or b? ie: Break to the up or downside or break/pullback/2nd break to the up or downside?

Anyone gonna play the break?? (of course there is a scenario c, and that's a false a or b break with an opposing break to the other side or some more consolidation, lol.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

re post # 33

A regular divergence based repeating reversal set-up on 1min develops for a hi-probability entry into the 5min range. see screenshot below. Trading a reg div based repeating reversal set-up in the next t/f range can be hi-probability, but trying to re-enter a trend that doesn't exist on the next t/f with a hidden div based repeating set-up generally isn't. Also the 5min is ranging so wasn't expecting a cricket score/home run pip gain off the set-up.

Some U.s data later, market chatter suggesting possible consolidation till then, posibly even till friday's u.s NFP release ?? Time will tell.

G/L


( 1min Reversal Aii seq)

 

[bbmac]

market commentray

1005 GMT [Dow Jones] GBP/USD retested but was unable to sustain the 1.70 level Tuesday. Forex.Com's Jane Foley says the approaching MPC meeting and the continued risk that the BOE could extend QE could make further near-term gains difficult. Foley notes sterling has also backed away from its best levels against the EUR and JPY, which supports a view of dwindling momentum. GBP/USD trades at 1.6943 from the day's 9-month high of 1.7006, EUR/GBP is at 0.8510 from Monday's one month low of 0.8464 and GBP/JPY trades at 160.50 from the day's 7-week high of 162.25. (GST)

Contact us in London. +44-20-7842-9464
[email protected]

 

[bbmac]

NFP...looking ahead

U.s NFP Number due on friday, and headline forecast is for -345k. as always the forecast's deviation from the actual #, the un-employment rate, manufacturing losses and revisions to the previous # will all paly a part in market reaction to it.

On Wednesday ahead of the actual NFP release there is the ADP release forecasting the NFP and the forecast for that is -355k. What does ADP stand for? (that's right, Another Dreadful Projection) Lol...it's mostly always well wide of the mark, but market can react to it.

 

[bbmac]

4 fib cluster at a previous 1hr swing hi=prev res=potential rbs zone

Final post for today: The 1hr zone decsribed above extends 6777-55 and in/around that are 4 x fibs, namely 23.6% of 5980 [@ 6777] and 6031 [@ 6765] moves to current 7003 highs, 76.4% of 6693-7003 is @ 6768, whilst 38.2% of 6337-7003 is @ 6750

This of course could all change with any new Hi above 7003.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Weds 5th Aug 09, 1hr chart update

The 1hr screenshot below is the updated current position as I see it in respect of previous obvious near-term imbalances of supp/dem (swing hi's) and dem/supp (swing lo's) and unbreeched fibs/trend lines on this t/f.

The fibs are drawn from 6471 and 6693 to 7003. Current 1hr congestion channel is contained by that 7003 hi and the 38.2% of the 6693-7003 move.

Uk data due later.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

4hr bullflag developing?

Market chatter of a possible 4hr bull Flag ?

G/L