April '04 Forex

[deanplake]

well done FC,

being a week old virgin on this site i'll leave your love pump licking to the more experienced!

seriously though, been tracking this for a while, my feeling on this is 1.7625 today before upward correction....... what is your more considered opinion?

 

[FetteredChinos]

hmm, not sure about 1.7625

looking back at my hourly chart on page 6 (??) assuming that wave 5 that we are in now is equal to wave 3 then we could be looking at a 700 point drop from 1.8150 which gives us a target of 1.7450 . in the short term that seems crazy even by my standards , but does roughly tie in with round number support at 1.7500 , so thats what im plumping for.

dont take my words as gospel, im still relatively new to forex

 

[Newtron Bomb]

1.75 is on the cards
Looking at the bigger picture you could see a potential move complete and meet target at around 1.67.

FC
you may want to reanalyse your H&S i think there is a more prominent pattern now that more information has developed it.

Happy Trading
NB

 

[FetteredChinos]

remember that Greenspasm is talking tonight at 8pm uk time i think. so we may have a relatively quiet period until then, afterwhich it may all go bananas again.


FC

 

[mpjordan]

Thanks for comment fc

stopped out at 17640 ( june) for +160 pts. Feeling so pleased with myself ive just gone long at 17600. small position tight stop.

also gone long euro at 11808 (june). well someones got to.

 

[deanplake]

hey i never hold any one to their word in this game, just glad someone agrees with the same direction as me!!!!!

at least someone else is licking their wounds at the same timE!

 

[FetteredChinos]

ok, this is my thinking...

ok chaps, here is an 8-hourly chart. looks like the bottom rung could be in the region of 1.7500 (quelle surprise) but may pop a bit lower.

however from there we may bounce heftily. and this looks like the formation of an absolutely enormous BULL flag, that could catapult us well beyond 2.0100 with a following wind

this is only a rough analysis and was knocked up inbetween spreadsheet analyis of our departments marketing budget (yawn!!)

could all be utter twaddle remember!


FC

 

[FetteredChinos]

knackers. stopped out at 1.7938 for -60

long on EUR/$ though from 1.1856

lets see if it pulls the day round for me.

 

[mpjordan]

Bit nervous having a position before greenspan.
Just got stopped out of long cable +21 and long euro +17
Better tan a poke in the eye
Martin

 

[FetteredChinos]

i have a feeling that greenspasm will tread very carefully today after causing the markets to sell off last night. dont particularly care what he says personally. but we shall see.

nice trading MPJ

points in the bag always help

 

[mpjordan]

Thanks fc
Looks like my balls were not big enough, missed 100 pts.
consolation 'preserve capital'
MPJ

 

[ivorm]

Hi FC,

Are you still long on the Euro ?

Any ideas for a target ?

Regards,

 

[FetteredChinos]

hmm, havent thought of a target on the EURO as yet. i'll have a look at the charts when i get a moment. but until then i think i shall let the trend run for a moment. had a bit of a retrace just now, but seems to be trying to resume...

FC

 

[mik1973]

Interesting comments with reference to trading the news and holding positions either side. Just to clarify are you guys going long and short of the same instrument and placing pretty tight stops in the hope that you will be cancelled out one side but benefiting from a large move in the opposite direction?
If my understanding is correct could you give an idea as to what stops you are placing?
If i have misread or misunderstood could someone please clarify this trading strategy further?
Thanks
Mick

 

[FetteredChinos]

hmm, gone long on cable at 1.7722 looks like a rounded bottom and a break of the trendline from the decline from 1.78+

stop @ 1.7680 looking for 50+ points.

RSI for what its worth is "overbought"

FC

 

[mpjordan]

Hi Mik
I dont know about other people, but I put a buy order above the price and a sell order below. I put the orders about 20 pts away from the price. Too close and you might get filled before the announcement. If the news is a real surprise the market really moves.
Mpj

 

[mik1973]

Thx MPJ.
I've been spread betting on currencies for a bout 3 weeks- my first week did pretty well, 2nd week ok and third week- lets just say - i got stamped on, spat at and got a huge reality check as to how FX can make you feel elated one moment to feeling like cr*p the next. The news announcement strategy certainly sounds interesting although using spread bets i would probably have to hold accounts with 2 different SBs in order to go long and short on the same instrument. I guess it would also mean having to constantly monitor the position (similar to day trading) in order to close positions after the announcements have been made.
Could you let me know what news announcements you trade and give an indication as to the time frame you use to open and close positions?
Cheers
Mick

 

[FetteredChinos]

here we go, market's movin' on up again. perhaps another test of 1.780??

lets hope so, as im a little overweight at the moment lol...

FC

edit - had a look at the MACD on the 5-min (my preferred timescale) has failed to break the zero line with any real conviction?? could be a bullish sign???? hmm.

 

[mpjordan]

Hi mick
One company will do as you hope only one order will get triggered. I put my stops tight so that if one order gets filled if it goes against me I will get stopped out before the other order gets filled. I not exactly an old hand st this myself, i'm sure theres other guys out there who know better. Its not easy money and it can go wrong otherwise every one would do it.
I try to trade any news which I think will have an impact on interst rates. I normally use trailing stops until I get stopped out, if it keeps going my way I hang on in there.
Mpj

 

[mik1973]

Thanks again MPJ- one site that i've been using to research news is briefing.com- geared towards American announcements. It's an excellent source of information of forthcoming news announcements and provides a full explanation of what these key statistics mean (they even grade them in order of importance).
Mick