Sometimes the chat room is active and sometimes it's like a quiet library. Right now Welshmal there are 13 there, but it's quiet - actually that's typical of most chat rooms. MIRC is a good client to use for Internet Relay Chat, but there are many. This one as you may know is on the 'othernet' server which is all financial. So if you download MIRC, you will want to connect to the othernet server and join #T2W-Forex, you can configue MIRC to automatically load T2W-Forex or you can just type /join #T2W-Forex ........ if you have any problems just ask.
June '04 Forex
- Thread starter Newtron Bomb
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frugi
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Wolfewave alert
A tidily formed Wolfewave on EUR with a target about 100pips North, depending when/if it hits the target line. Of course the FOMC may easily mess it up with wild gyrations.
The impulses down are 63, 62 and 68 points respectively which is about right.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a shakeout to 1.2080ish first though.
A tidily formed Wolfewave on EUR with a target about 100pips North, depending when/if it hits the target line. Of course the FOMC may easily mess it up with wild gyrations.
The impulses down are 63, 62 and 68 points respectively which is about right.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a shakeout to 1.2080ish first though.
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frugi
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frugi
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Cheers gus.
Broadly, I think it's always drawn from the bottom of wave one across the top of wave four. I like to make the target line as pessimistic as possible which is why I haven't drawn it across the highest high of wave four.
'Ere ya go, Voodoo explains it better than I.
http://chart.mine.nu/wolfewave.htm
Broadly, I think it's always drawn from the bottom of wave one across the top of wave four. I like to make the target line as pessimistic as possible which is why I haven't drawn it across the highest high of wave four.
'Ere ya go, Voodoo explains it better than I.
http://chart.mine.nu/wolfewave.htm
Newtron Bomb
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Frugi
Brilliant to see you getting your teeth into FX. You Index analysis has translateded brilliantly onto FX futures.
I know i will look farward to reading more of your analysis.
Happy Trading
NB
Brilliant to see you getting your teeth into FX. You Index analysis has translateded brilliantly onto FX futures.
I know i will look farward to reading more of your analysis.
Happy Trading
NB
frugi
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Cheers mate that means a lot.
Unfortunately my prospective Wolfe has been mortally extended by an unusually savage bear-sheep. I don't know how the bleating woolly traitor found a way to sharpen her teeth and grow claws but the damage is certainly typical of a ruthless carnivore.
The bottom that I hoped was forming turned out to be a nasty trap, or indeed, being objective as we must, merely a continuation pattern deserving of the requisite dispassionate action and nothing more.
Ascribing qualities to price action surely signifies emotional involvment and this is to be avoided at all costs.
Nevertheless, I really, really wasn't expecting that to happen, given my read of the evidence, but fortunately a predetermined stop loss ensured I accepted it and move on.
Admittedly, there was a flinch or two as the ego tried to make sense of a poor decision and somehow make up for it, but I managed to calm the petulant fellow with cold rationality before he could hit the "buy 5 times more contracts than I should" (labelled "Revenge" for conciseness) button. Even after four or so years I still find this quelling of emotion extremely difficult and am heartened to learn from Socrates that it is by no means easy, and we are all capable of lapsing at any time, even when practised at the art of depersonalisation. My expectations must always be malleable and reactive and the day I let them impose on the market is the day I should (probably will be forced to) close my account and move on.
Sorry about the personal pep talk there: sometimes the old adrenaline likes to kick up a fuss and distract me from business, so I must continually strive to channel it out of harm's way, even if that means talking to myself.
Fight or flight in front of a computer screen (studded club optional) - a ludicrous and hysterical notion until one realises how easy it is to succumb to these base instincts and tear sudden chunks from a trading account in a matter of minutes with the merest brush of a finger on a key.
Now then what was all that about wolves and sheep? Well, the 5 wave pattern down was not ready to end when I thought it might: EUR has now surfed a mighty seven waves down (15min) and is sitting at its lower pivot / bottom of channel at 1.2060ish looking lonely and disconsolate. She will need a few hours to recover before making an ascent I'd wager. I read once that "the prettiest patterns often precede the nastiest losses" and boy was this Wolfe pretty. If it wasn't a quadruped I'd have asked it out.
My analysis was sound on a probability/historical basis I think, but the market decided it wasn't. Simple, end of story. And the best confirmation I think I have ever had of the absolute necessity to take a loss when something doesn't work out as expected. A positive lesson for the subconscious that I am glad to have been party to, despite the loss.
Apologies for the ramble
Unfortunately my prospective Wolfe has been mortally extended by an unusually savage bear-sheep. I don't know how the bleating woolly traitor found a way to sharpen her teeth and grow claws but the damage is certainly typical of a ruthless carnivore.
The bottom that I hoped was forming turned out to be a nasty trap, or indeed, being objective as we must, merely a continuation pattern deserving of the requisite dispassionate action and nothing more.
Ascribing qualities to price action surely signifies emotional involvment and this is to be avoided at all costs.
Nevertheless, I really, really wasn't expecting that to happen, given my read of the evidence, but fortunately a predetermined stop loss ensured I accepted it and move on.
Admittedly, there was a flinch or two as the ego tried to make sense of a poor decision and somehow make up for it, but I managed to calm the petulant fellow with cold rationality before he could hit the "buy 5 times more contracts than I should" (labelled "Revenge" for conciseness) button. Even after four or so years I still find this quelling of emotion extremely difficult and am heartened to learn from Socrates that it is by no means easy, and we are all capable of lapsing at any time, even when practised at the art of depersonalisation. My expectations must always be malleable and reactive and the day I let them impose on the market is the day I should (probably will be forced to) close my account and move on.
Sorry about the personal pep talk there: sometimes the old adrenaline likes to kick up a fuss and distract me from business, so I must continually strive to channel it out of harm's way, even if that means talking to myself.
Fight or flight in front of a computer screen (studded club optional) - a ludicrous and hysterical notion until one realises how easy it is to succumb to these base instincts and tear sudden chunks from a trading account in a matter of minutes with the merest brush of a finger on a key.
Now then what was all that about wolves and sheep? Well, the 5 wave pattern down was not ready to end when I thought it might: EUR has now surfed a mighty seven waves down (15min) and is sitting at its lower pivot / bottom of channel at 1.2060ish looking lonely and disconsolate. She will need a few hours to recover before making an ascent I'd wager. I read once that "the prettiest patterns often precede the nastiest losses" and boy was this Wolfe pretty. If it wasn't a quadruped I'd have asked it out.
My analysis was sound on a probability/historical basis I think, but the market decided it wasn't. Simple, end of story. And the best confirmation I think I have ever had of the absolute necessity to take a loss when something doesn't work out as expected. A positive lesson for the subconscious that I am glad to have been party to, despite the loss.
Apologies for the ramble
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Newtron Bomb
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Frugi
No need to explain your ramblings times are tough imo atm for FX trading and things are not alway swhat they appear to be.
I for one was expecting a bottom where your ascribed your wolfwave pattern, based more on the larger time frames but price didnt confirm a long at the time.
I was skimming through the link you posted very interesting indeed. I particularly like the way examples are given on a multitude of markets.
Ive attched the cash with your wolfwave count but ive just extended the lines and draw an additional parallel line for consideration.
It is a very difficult market to trade at the moment lots of mixed signals on multiple time frames with no real follow through on larger set up and to quote buk "A scalpers market"
Hopefully, This weeks big economic figure announcements will start to put some direction back into all the markets.
Anyway for now i'll se eyou in zee chat room tomorrow.
Happy Trading
NB
No need to explain your ramblings times are tough imo atm for FX trading and things are not alway swhat they appear to be.
I for one was expecting a bottom where your ascribed your wolfwave pattern, based more on the larger time frames but price didnt confirm a long at the time.
I was skimming through the link you posted very interesting indeed. I particularly like the way examples are given on a multitude of markets.
Ive attched the cash with your wolfwave count but ive just extended the lines and draw an additional parallel line for consideration.
It is a very difficult market to trade at the moment lots of mixed signals on multiple time frames with no real follow through on larger set up and to quote buk "A scalpers market"
Hopefully, This weeks big economic figure announcements will start to put some direction back into all the markets.
Anyway for now i'll se eyou in zee chat room tomorrow.
Happy Trading
NB
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echo Newtrons comment re: 'good to see you posting' on the FX thread Frugi ....blimey NB, there's more lines on that piccy than I used to receive at school for being a bad boy :cheesy: got stars wizzin around in front of me eyes
hope you're right about the 'news' bringing a little trendyness back to the party, but I aint so sure we'll see too much mate, the avg daily range (cable) has been deplorable past few weeks & like you, haven't had a run (on a remaining stake) for a week or three now ....keep that scalping knife sharp, we may just require it for a few weeks yet
....blimey NB, there's more lines on that piccy than I used to receive at school for being a bad boy :cheesy: got stars wizzin around in front of me eyes hope you're right about the 'news' bringing a little trendyness back to the party, but I aint so sure we'll see too much mate, the avg daily range (cable) has been deplorable past few weeks & like you, haven't had a run (on a remaining stake) for a week or three now ....keep that scalping knife sharp, we may just require it for a few weeks yet
tradesmart
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Nice move on the Swissie today for nearly 100 pips…….(so far..)
I’d been watching it peaking yesterday with ND building up on the RSI/CCI and suspected that it would make its move down in the morning…..
And there it was, right on 8am the fall started, a break of the 100ema confirming the weakness…….
I’d been watching it peaking yesterday with ND building up on the RSI/CCI and suspected that it would make its move down in the morning…..
And there it was, right on 8am the fall started, a break of the 100ema confirming the weakness…….
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tradesmart
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Buk – Basically I’ll trade any instrument that moves in a way that I can “read” and can apply common T/A techniques to, most of which I’ve learned from ChartMans Dow threads.
True, I’ve only been looking at FX recently, but the T/A has adapted well, and I’m certainly appreciating the predictability of it, and the ‘big pips’ moves every day….
Regards
True, I’ve only been looking at FX recently, but the T/A has adapted well, and I’m certainly appreciating the predictability of it, and the ‘big pips’ moves every day….
Regards
good stuff!...yes, the currencies do 'move' well within the ranges. They have been a tad tight recently (well cable has anyway), and the contracting intraday ranges have resulted in increased chop, but agree, once they wind up, the runs are pretty frantic & accumulate consistantly good profits.....anyone migrating from equities/indiv shares will find the T/A sits nicely on FX....certainly makes life a little easier (at times) that's for sure!
frugi
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Forgive the usual ramble folks...
I had a rewarding day today and would like to share it, not, I should stress (with a superfluous flurry of commas), to inflate my ego in any way, but to expand on stuff a few of us were discussing in the chat room today.
Dunno if you've heard me say this before but Forex price action has dazzled with its purity lately, in that it really does, generally, seem to obediently conform to the cliched instructions found on the typical TA tin. Being only sporadically, rather than continually, devious, it respects patterns, waves, Fibs etc. without trying to kick one out of position on every single point of technical significance. As you know, ES was superb at doing just that, at considerable cost to my account. Whether this is down to my failings, my personality (and, more importantly, failure to suppress it), the different characters of markets or a combination of the trio I do not know, but moving into Forex feels like I've stumbled out of the unpredicatable savagery of the Colosseum into a good natured round of Playstation with friends. Of course I want to win, but the pressure is slighter, the humour better, the aims of the other player more obvious and a modest but effective number of rules are known. Also the reactions surprisingly sharp for a Friday night
Right that's quite enough babbling - onto the price action
Euro futures 07:00-20:xxx GMT
Given my ongoing discipline problems I took a mechanical long entry at 1.2081 according to my variant of JonnyT's 1st hour breakout system, i.e waiting until the first 15 min bar closed above (or below - but not today) the first hour's range, with a standard 30 pip stop loss. Always pleasant to have an 'arbitrary' entry supported by other TA: there was a re-entry, by way of an almost marabozu candle ( ), into a well established down channel after 7 long, clear waves down and a double bottom at 1.2050.
I added another long at 1.2092 in the consolidation (15 pt stop just below previous candle bottom). Perhaps this was a touch risky as I was buying just below a pivot point (yellow line) and I didn't wait for a higher high close. Then again entering in a consol pause in a trend is often better than waiting for the breakout as the stop can be tighter.
Sold this long swiftly at 1.2113 (38% retrace) as it approached next layer of resistance, a 9 day old trendline that probably deserved respect. I didn't like the look of the green 10:00 (inverse hammer?) candle that bounced down off this line either. Increasing volume and constant 10 EMA support could have kept me long but (sheepishly) 2 contracts are too hot for me to hold for long. The second contract was a 1:1.4 scalp essentially, bit silly, but I was happy adding given 1st contract profit.
Euro continued up, broke decisively into its old up channel, then above pivot R1,around which it formed a bull triangle. I was stopped out of my long at 1.2135 on the bull triangle bottom. I moved the stop there because the price bounced down off a 62% retrace and I was happy to let the market take me out, thus granted me perfect, unbiased calm to watch the triangle.
The triangle broke up as expected (arrogance unintentional) so I longed again at 1.2144 and closed this at 1.2175. There were a number of reasons for this, chiefly a need to urinate.
Also it was a 76.4% retrace after 5 messy waves up, at yesterday's high (not marked cause chart is not 24hr) and a quietly pessismistic inverse H&S target. Note the high volume bar that was accompanied in price by a a new spike high, but closed rather bearishly. Not a short signal by any means, but a warning. 3 bars later, bingo, chunky reversal after a double top on lower vol and a marginal new high on the reversal bar (as Skim has mentioned often I believe). Sorry this is becoming incoherent! Just gotta mention that 76.4% retrace level though - I ladmire it cause it takes out all the 62% Fibbers but allows for covert accumulation/distribution without competition from everyone looking to get in at 100%. Tis the unexpected level where reversals occasionally occur innit. Not...oh dear :|
Anyway at this point everyone reading this drivel nodded off, while any bubbles of pride I might be allowing to seep through were punctured by the realisation that I had disobeyed the system, exiting early instead of holding to the close as directed. But, in my defence, I felt I had compelling evidence to exit the long; the only task now was to re-establish it and thus satisfy the system.
Bearing in mind the Fed action, I placed a limit long just above the 9 day trendline at 1.2141 in the hope that a Fed spike would grab it. Stop 15 pips, in case the Fed rise was 0.5% and me Euro plunged, otherwise it wd have been 30 as usual. Damn system again, dictating arbitrary stops against one's supposedly better judgment. Anyway the spike down was fulfilling and in the post Fed frenzy I crudely trailed the stop until it was hit at 1.2160.
Well, that's post event curve fitting for you! If I'm honest, just a very lucky day by all accounts, but at least perhaps I created a little of that luck by following the rules I have learnt and giving priorirty to those that bore most weight. Discretion was the better part of mechanics, or summat :cheesy: But what still confuses me is that I applied much the same ethic to ES, and she killed me. :?:
I had a rewarding day today and would like to share it, not, I should stress (with a superfluous flurry of commas
), to inflate my ego in any way, but to expand on stuff a few of us were discussing in the chat room today. Dunno if you've heard me say this before
but Forex price action has dazzled with its purity lately, in that it really does, generally, seem to obediently conform to the cliched instructions found on the typical TA tin. Being only sporadically, rather than continually, devious, it respects patterns, waves, Fibs etc. without trying to kick one out of position on every single point of technical significance. As you know, ES was superb at doing just that, at considerable cost to my account. Whether this is down to my failings, my personality (and, more importantly, failure to suppress it), the different characters of markets or a combination of the trio I do not know, but moving into Forex feels like I've stumbled out of the unpredicatable savagery of the Colosseum into a good natured round of Playstation with friends. Of course I want to win, but the pressure is slighter, the humour better, the aims of the other player more obvious and a modest but effective number of rules are known. Also the reactions surprisingly sharp for a Friday night Right that's quite enough babbling - onto the price action
Euro futures 07:00-20:xxx GMT
Given my ongoing discipline problems I took a mechanical long entry at 1.2081 according to my variant of JonnyT's 1st hour breakout system, i.e waiting until the first 15 min bar closed above (or below - but not today) the first hour's range, with a standard 30 pip stop loss. Always pleasant to have an 'arbitrary' entry supported by other TA: there was a re-entry, by way of an almost marabozu candle (
), into a well established down channel after 7 long, clear waves down and a double bottom at 1.2050. I added another long at 1.2092 in the consolidation (15 pt stop just below previous candle bottom). Perhaps this was a touch risky as I was buying just below a pivot point (yellow line) and I didn't wait for a higher high close. Then again entering in a consol pause in a trend is often better than waiting for the breakout as the stop can be tighter.
Sold this long swiftly at 1.2113 (38% retrace) as it approached next layer of resistance, a 9 day old trendline that probably deserved respect. I didn't like the look of the green 10:00 (inverse hammer?) candle that bounced down off this line either. Increasing volume and constant 10 EMA support could have kept me long but (sheepishly) 2 contracts are too hot for me to hold for long. The second contract was a 1:1.4 scalp essentially, bit silly, but I was happy adding given 1st contract profit.
Euro continued up, broke decisively into its old up channel, then above pivot R1,around which it formed a bull triangle. I was stopped out of my long at 1.2135 on the bull triangle bottom. I moved the stop there because the price bounced down off a 62% retrace and I was happy to let the market take me out, thus granted me perfect, unbiased calm to watch the triangle.
The triangle broke up as expected (arrogance unintentional) so I longed again at 1.2144 and closed this at 1.2175. There were a number of reasons for this, chiefly a need to urinate.
Also it was a 76.4% retrace after 5 messy waves up, at yesterday's high (not marked cause chart is not 24hr) and a quietly pessismistic inverse H&S target. Note the high volume bar that was accompanied in price by a a new spike high, but closed rather bearishly. Not a short signal by any means, but a warning. 3 bars later, bingo, chunky reversal after a double top on lower vol and a marginal new high on the reversal bar (as Skim has mentioned often I believe). Sorry this is becoming incoherent! Just gotta mention that 76.4% retrace level though - I ladmire it cause it takes out all the 62% Fibbers but allows for covert accumulation/distribution without competition from everyone looking to get in at 100%. Tis the unexpected level where reversals occasionally occur innit. Not...oh dear :|
Anyway at this point everyone reading this drivel nodded off, while any bubbles of pride I might be allowing to seep through were punctured by the realisation that I had disobeyed the system, exiting early instead of holding to the close as directed. But, in my defence, I felt I had compelling evidence to exit the long; the only task now was to re-establish it and thus satisfy the system.
Bearing in mind the Fed action, I placed a limit long just above the 9 day trendline at 1.2141 in the hope that a Fed spike would grab it. Stop 15 pips, in case the Fed rise was 0.5% and me Euro plunged, otherwise it wd have been 30 as usual. Damn system again, dictating arbitrary stops against one's supposedly better judgment.
Anyway the spike down was fulfilling and in the post Fed frenzy I crudely trailed the stop until it was hit at 1.2160.Well, that's post event curve fitting for you! If I'm honest, just a very lucky day by all accounts, but at least perhaps I created a little of that luck by following the rules I have learnt and giving priorirty to those that bore most weight. Discretion was the better part of mechanics, or summat :cheesy: But what still confuses me is that I applied much the same ethic to ES, and she killed me.
:?: Attachments
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Newtron Bomb
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Frugi
Quite simply brilliant
NB
Quite simply brilliant
NB
Another big news day looming tomorrow. US non farm payroll as 1.30 pm UK time.
Is this a "stay away" day bearing in mind wild volatility on previous big news days?
What do you guys reckon?
Whatever happens, hopefully it will give the eur/usd a bit more direction for next week.
Is this a "stay away" day bearing in mind wild volatility on previous big news days?
What do you guys reckon?
Whatever happens, hopefully it will give the eur/usd a bit more direction for next week.
Newtron Bomb
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Hi darren
Alway of the view that if you are in doubt then stay out. We have been fortunate in the first few months of the year to have had an announcement and the reaction pretty much moved in one direct. However, a bit more normality has resumed where is yoyo's around is the normal call of the day. Quick fingers and balls of steel required or you can see yourself a 100 pips down in 10 seconds or less if your really lucky.
Happy Trading
NB
Alway of the view that if you are in doubt then stay out. We have been fortunate in the first few months of the year to have had an announcement and the reaction pretty much moved in one direct. However, a bit more normality has resumed where is yoyo's around is the normal call of the day. Quick fingers and balls of steel required or you can see yourself a 100 pips down in 10 seconds or less if your really lucky.
Happy Trading
NB
