Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

et. said:
5871 and errrrrrrrrrk.
Click to expand...

This is not necessarily a reverse.

The same strategy I used for 5933. I've since learned that it's not possible to use that strategy all the time but when you spot the set up, it's awesome. It would be more awesome if you could tell whether it was a reverse or pullback but you can't have everything.

Edit: didn't enter for c10 point move because I still doubted it for various reasons to do with different timeframes. I think it's good reversal signa whatever with 6 stop for 10 point limit...
 
Last edited:
VIX 14.40 (below 14.71) so sluggish markets

Fedex, to find the truth about their report is very hard. I trust FT,..

FedEx warns on slowing global trade
 
et. said:
Good post. It's true.

If some people are under the impression I am 'good', and I apparently have '50 followers', they should know I still haven't managed to convert my knowledge into actual trading ability.

My problem is I can't stick to a strategy. My win percentage has got worse as I've learned more and got 'better'. Partly because I try harder set-ups, like reversals of trend, and get it wrong. Partly because my over-riding feeling when I trade is confusion as I don't know where to place my attention, so the whole 'jenga tower' of rules I have collapses and I end up doing something 'random' - just to be decisive to end the confusion. This often means I've exited 10 seconds prior to big move.

I think learning more is okay in principle, but you just need to work even harder at the psychology to make it work.
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et

If you'll allow me to offer a few thoughts for you to ponder.

Firstly, there is a huge difference between what price might do (analysis) and what price is doing (trading). Different skill sets are involved and the skill associated with trading is all about managing the trade you have taken with your money management skills a big feature in that.

Secondly, TA is not predictive and it merely points you to a price where you are prepared to make an assumption about direction and trade accordingly. If that assumption plays out more often than not then you have an edge and be grateful for it. Your job is not to lose too much when it doesn't and to take an acceptable profit when it does. You can call this trade management or money management or whatever, but never forget that it is where you exit a trade that moves your account, not where you enter.

For my main equities stuff, I know from past experience (doesn't guarantee the future of course 🙂) that if I gain average reward:risk of 1.5:1 my account will keep ticking along nicely. My risk is always the same (adjusting position sizes accordingly); I will not take a trade that offers less than 1.5:1; and although I target higher than 1.5:1 according to my TA aiming point I will always protect at 1.5:1 to ensure I get it. I'm not suggesting that you follow suit, it's merely an example to emphasise this part of the business.

cheers

jon

ps: sorry if this is granny and eggs stuff
 
barjon said:
et

If you'll allow me to offer a few thoughts for you to ponder.

Firstly, there is a huge difference between what price might do (analysis) and what price is doing (trading). Different skill sets are involved and the skill associated with trading is all about managing the trade you have taken with your money management skills a big feature in that.

Secondly, TA is not predictive and it merely points you to a price where you are prepared to make an assumption about direction and trade accordingly. If that assumption plays out more often than not then you have an edge and be grateful for it. Your job is not to lose too much when it doesn't and to take an acceptable profit when it does. You can call this trade management or money management or whatever, but never forget that it is where you exit a trade that moves your account, not where you enter.

For my main equities stuff, I know from past experience (doesn't guarantee the future of course 🙂) that if I gain average reward:risk of 1.5:1 my account will keep ticking along nicely. My risk is always the same (adjusting position sizes accordingly); I will not take a trade that offers less than 1.5:1; and although I target higher than 1.5:1 according to my TA aiming point I will always protect at 1.5:1 to ensure I get it. I'm not suggesting that you follow suit, it's merely an example to emphasise this part of the business.

cheers

jon

ps: sorry if this is granny and eggs stuff
Click to expand...

Thanks, this is good advice. I always use a stop. A short one, and am prepared to cut losses. Here is where I need to improve:

1. Reward to risk ratio. I've often made trades at 1 minute level expecting 6 point move. while my stop is only six. My most recent trades a week or so ago attempted to rectify this by trading at higher level where I expected 10-20, but I failed to predict the bottom/top. This error lead to my current strategy which is a slight improvement.

2. "it is where you exit a trade that moves your account, not where you enter". In the time before it moves in which you get to think, I can come up with all sorts of ideas. If it moves in my favour straight away, I'm fine, but if it just hovers or goes against me slightly, I have doubted myself and tried to imagine scenarios where I'm wrong. All of a sudden I notice something I hadn't picked up on before and think "made a mistake!" and exit, then once I've exited I have another look and then work out I was making a mistake in the reanalysis and I was right the first time. One solution to this could be to enter trade and walk away. There are very few instances when I've made a mistake compared to those when I've reanalysed and incorrectly thought I had made a mistake.
 
Right now I think the current drop should go back to the 4hr bullish channel line, to 5846.
 
et. said:
Thanks, this is good advice. I always use a stop. A short one, and am prepared to cut losses. Here is where I need to improve:

1. Reward to risk ratio. I've often made trades at 1 minute level expecting 6 point move. while my stop is only six. My most recent trades a week or so ago attempted to rectify this by trading at higher level where I expected 10-20, but I failed to predict the bottom/top. This error lead to my current strategy which is a slight improvement.

2. "it is where you exit a trade that moves your account, not where you enter". In the time before it moves in which you get to think, I can come up with all sorts of ideas. If it moves in my favour straight away, I'm fine, but if it just hovers or goes against me slightly, I have doubted myself and tried to imagine scenarios where I'm wrong. All of a sudden I notice something I hadn't picked up on before and think "made a mistake!" and exit, then once I've exited I have another look and then work out I was making a mistake in the reanalysis and I was right the first time. One solution to this could be to enter trade and walk away. There are very few instances when I've made a mistake compared to those when I've reanalysed and incorrectly thought I had made a mistake.
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et

OK, Forget prediction and think "here's where I'm going to make an assumption".

Questions:

1. what will confirm that my assumption looks like being right? - entry or addition
2. what will confirm that my assumption looks like being wrong? - stoploss
3. what do I need to get out of this to meet my money management criteria?
4. Is that feasible?

You may, of course, have a much better target in mind, but it's probably worth thinking of that as a bonus to 3 above if price goes on towards your assumption of where it might go.

If you get nervous about your trades then maybe working with zones rather than line prices may help. Or you could enter with half position and make up to full on the answer to 1 above - if you were stopped you could always re-enter with another half position if your analysis assumption hadn't changed. If you were stopped on that too, then you'd have only suffered a one position loss overall.
 
To those 50+ rogue hedge fund traders out there following my every word... I have made many terrible calls prior to getting the 5933 and some other good ones, and cannot myself trade. I was wrong this morning thinking it would find support at a higher price. I don't think it is advisable that you should mirror trade my calls. I found 7 min + in SuddenDeath's recent vid very useful.

That said, I'm hoping this is a head and shoulders. Neckline to top of head would be 24 points, which would take us down to 5834. However, that doesn't always work, and I'm calling c5846.
 
barjon said:
et

OK, Forget prediction and think "here's where I'm going to make an assumption".

Questions:

1. what will confirm that my assumption looks like being right? - entry or addition
2. what will confirm that my assumption looks like being wrong? - stoploss
3. what do I need to get out of this to meet my money management criteria?
4. Is that feasible?

You may, of course, have a much better target in mind, but it's probably worth thinking of that as a bonus to 3 above if price goes on towards your assumption of where it might go.
Click to expand...

Again good advice but I have this all written down. Main issue is that I stop thinking, panic. Need a psychologist. Some might say a straight jacket 😆


If you get nervous about your trades the maybe working with zones rather than line prices may help.
Click to expand...

I like lines, and I recognise them as zones too.

Pivot points offer another possible basis of zonal trading. I worked out pivot points from annual HLOC. Zone would be e.g. 10 pips either side. 5871 is an annual pivot and it is currently behaving as a resistance zone.

Or you could enter with half position and make up to full on the answer to 1 above - if you were stopped you could always re-enter with another half position if your analysis assumption hadn't changed. If you were stopped on that too, then you'd have only suffered a one position loss overall.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the idea. I've tried re-entering after getting stopped but it is a very good idea to re-enter with half you did before. You were wrong the first time so it's possible you are simply wrong, so it would not be wise to enter with a whole stake. If you are in right the second time, you may be entering at a much better value position.
 
et. said:
To those 50+ rogue hedge fund traders out there following my every word... I have made many terrible calls prior to getting the 5933 and some other good ones, and cannot myself trade. I was wrong this morning thinking it would find support at a higher price. I don't think it is advisable that you should mirror trade my calls. I found 7 min + in SuddenDeath's recent vid very useful.

That said, I'm hoping this is a head and shoulders. Neckline to top of head would be 24 points, which would take us down to 5834. However, that doesn't always work, and I'm calling c5846.
Click to expand...

et, how did u come to the ftse level 5834 ? i got there by converting contract fib levels from ES`Z
 
SuddenDeath said:
VIX 14.40 (below 14.71) so sluggish markets

Fedex, to find the truth about their report is very hard. I trust FT,..

FedEx warns on slowing global trade
Click to expand...

posted above at 3.22pm today.

VIX below 14.71 and market is very sluggish, its out of juice, but no one running for the parachutes (bidding up VIX)
 
et. said:
Again good advice but I have this all written down. Main issue is that I stop thinking, panic. Need a psychologist. Some might say a straight jacket 😆




I like lines, and I recognise them as zones too.

Pivot points offer another possible basis of zonal trading. I worked out pivot points from annual HLOC. Zone would be e.g. 10 pips either side. 5871 is an annual pivot and it is currently behaving as a resistance zone.



Thanks for the idea. I've tried re-entering after getting stopped but it is a very good idea to re-enter with half you did before. You were wrong the first time so it's possible you are simply wrong, so it would not be wise to enter with a whole stake. If you are in right the second time, you may be entering at a much better value position.
Click to expand...

ok, et, I'll shut up now. Hope it stimulated the grey cells a bit and apologies if I was being a bit presumptious.
 
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