Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

zorbas said:
From my small experience, these differences or lags , can prove very profitable, especially in very fast moving markets.
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I've got an Active but unfunded Prospreads account...........

Later this week I'm going to fund it and will report back my experiences with them over time.....
Claim to be the nearest to DMA that most retail traders can get so we'll see.
 
zorbas said:
Lee, may I ask a newbie question ? Why did you traded the DEC-12 instrument and not the DFB ?
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Hi Zorbas,

Good question. The reason is due to the amount or profit and risk I am using based on the predicted time line of the trade. My stop is around 7500 with a target around 6500 or better. Naturally this all depends on market sentiment and as usual I am always open to allow my mind to change based on any research carried out. This is unbiased research without emotions btw. As the saying goes "There's always two sides to every story" - Everyone always has an opinion and traders are some of the worst.

Due to the size of the risk/reward and based on moving averages for the target market I know that with high probability I wont be stopped out within a couple of weeks. THIS IS A PROBABILITY NOT A CERTAINTY. The market is a way off yet and typical ranges for Dax 30 are as follows:

NOTE: These are Spreadbetting prices/ranges and will differ greatly from actual marker data but bear in mind I am playing against the Spreadbetting company and not the real market. My research is based on real market data and incorporated to be used for Spreadbetting.

Also Note: Ranges are over the time based predicted for the trades then carried forward.

Day: 110pts

Weekly: 240pts

Monthly: 550pts

Markets typically fall much quicker than they rise so as I'm short my concerns are less.

Had I have used DFB (daily's) then I leave myself open to paying interest on this every day. It works out that after about a week I end up paying more than what I would have done had I of used a forward contract.

Also by taking a future contract the SB price works in my favor. As it is currently priced higher than their cash means it will drop by this much on or prior to expiry. So.... the longer I hold the trade the more I make, assuming of course the market doesn't move, however, I do then get my spread back regardless of outcome.

Hope that helps.

Lee Shepherd
 
Lee Shepherd said:
Had I have used DFB (daily's) then I leave myself open to paying interest on this every day. It works out that after about a week I end up paying more than what I would have done had I of used a forward contract.
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Thanks Lee. I am new to SB and didn't know this difference between the DFB and the other instruments that represent futures contracts.

I've opened an account with IG but didn't fund it yet properly. I played a little with DFBs and observed that the dailyninterest is significant, making them more appropriate for daytrading use.

What is the interest on futures contracts on IG ? Is it zero ?

Thanks
 
Watching price today in UK and Europe.
Setting up for a positive Tuesday in Asia and possible range break higher.
Also good chance to move funds out of US into Asia with current USD strength.

See ya Tuesday
 
zorbas said:
Thanks Lee. I am new to SB and didn't know this difference between the DFB and the other instruments that represent futures contracts.

I've opened an account with IG but didn't fund it yet properly. I played a little with DFBs and observed that the dailyninterest is significant, making them more appropriate for daytrading use.

What is the interest on futures contracts on IG ? Is it zero ?

Thanks
Click to expand...

Hi Zorbas,

Yes that's correct. The interest is Zero as its already built into the price/spread. In IG example the spread is 6pts during normal hours as oppose to 1pt on DFB during opening hours. As you say DFB (Daily future bet) is best traded for days only and futures/forward contracts for whatever time you predict in the future. Because the spread is the same it is always best to take advantage of the longest possible contract they offer as this wont affect what you pay but will give you a little more time should the market not rise or fall in the time frame you originally predicted.

Also pay close attention to the forward price against cash as this can have a good or bad outcome. If you're playing longs then this will currently be against you, more so if your playing FTSE 100

Regards,

Lee Shepherd
 
Lee Shepherd said:
Hi Zorbas,

Yes that's correct. The interest is Zero as its already built into the price/spread. In IG example the spread is 6pts during normal hours as oppose to 1pt on DFB during opening hours. As you say DFB (Daily future bet) is best traded for days only and futures/forward contracts for whatever time you predict in the future. Because the spread is the same it is always best to take advantage of the longest possible contract they offer as this wont affect what you pay but will give you a little more time should the market not rise or fall in the time frame you originally predicted.

Also pay close attention to the forward price against cash as this can have a good or bad outcome. If you're playing longs then this will currently be against you, more so if your playing FTSE 100

Regards,

Lee Shepherd
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Thanks Lee, very insightful.
 
samirs said:
Hi Lee

On your current position would you put a trailing stop loss or move SL to b/e or above once the position is well onside to lock some profit.

I noticed you were in a very good profit (by my standard) but have allowed the position to move offside and are prepared for it to move further offside. However, you seem to be looking for a sizeable profit or loss? or have I misunderstood?

would you let it run offside to hit the stop or are the stops more a catastrophic stop loss and you would close it sooner if it continues to move offside?

Also what kind of leverage do you normally use?

I appreciate that you are entitled to change your mind if the circumstances warrant etc. But was more interested in your trading plan when placing a bet.

Also interestingly you said you bet against the SB and I understand for various reasons it is true. But ultimately aren't you playing in the market - I wont say against the market.

Apologies for too many questions. Please reply if you have time to the questions that you feel appropriate to answer to.

Thanks in advance.

Thanks
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Hi Samirs,

Please find answers to your questions below:

Trailing stops:

I don't use manual stops - Period. Unless I'm going to be away for any length of time that could jeopardise the positions. The same goes for Trailing stops.

Locking in profits:

This is an interesting one and one that will clearly separate boys from men. If it's going in my favour then no, I will not allow myself to get emotional (during or even after) and take out the trade on a 'Retracement'. This is the worst thing to do as I am open to market manipulation and stop hunting. Doing this will only take me out at (more times than not) the worst price. The stop is there for a reason, so is the target price.

I will always state that the markets do not know where I put my stops nor does it care about my targets, however, on a whole market sentiment with all the players involved, stops WILL get hunted - the same WILL go for targets - one is in my favour, one is clearly against.

The Stop

Again, its here for a reason and not necessarily a catastrophic stop, the same goes for the target. They are both reasonable and could both be hit. The stop is outside of the common resistance that we can all see on the graph and has been tested below this. Each time has given up and come down. This isn't to say it wont break it which is why stops were invented. I also factor in fundamentals(FA) along with the Technicals (TA)

Leverage

I use Tier 1 on IG. My account is not big enough to go outside of this.

Playing with or against the market

Here's the sad point. You and everyone else are not my friend in the markets. Unfortunately it is like the TV show 'The Apprentice' or X Factor. We may like each other and want each other to win but ultimately the only way I can win is for many others to lose. Sorry, I don't make the rules here. the same goes for the SB Company. I don't care for them and vice versa.

The only real winners are those who stick together in groups, its the only way to crunch so much data and keep abreast of market change and most importantly keep ahead (or at best level) with your competition. People constantly change how they trade and therefore the market changes. The groups then look to change to catch them out. This is why typically a strategy will work backwards but rarely forwards. Once the pattern has been discovered there is little time to trade it before it changes and once it does the confidence can be so high in the trader that they are lead to the slaughter house thinking they are going to be fed again, unfortunately they are going to be turned into food for someone else and the cycle repeats time and again. This is also why we keep hearing things as 'Look at this' and 'this has worked for months' These are the system sellers and market 'guru's' or talking heads you may allow yourself to be brainwashed by.

Best advice I was ever given was to form a group and be prepared to change. Keep open minded without emotions and most importantly Don't listen to talking heads or what has been, usually these people are 'has beens' themselves.

Regards,

Lee Shepherd
 
samirs said:
Hi Lee


May I ask one more question - do you follow x % of capital at risk rule. e.g. I have read it here on boards no more than 2% capital being risked per trade etc. And if yes, does it mean that maximum loss (10K in this case) is always less than certain % of your trading capital.

Thanks in advance.
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Hi Samirs,

The Percentage figure used is an important factor in a trading portfolio. No matter how good the trader, they will always have drawdowns. Too many of these in a row and the account would not have the cash resources to take the next trade - and guess what - the next trade wins and so do the many others.

Its for this reason that an agreed percentage is used. Its even more paramount with leverage involved as this exponentially increases risk.

As it is very common for me to have many trades on and also fade in and out of the market I use a very pitiful percentage figure per trade. This also allows me much comfortability as from a percentage point of view it doesn't hurt to lose. Nor does it make me jump for joy if I win - just a gentle smile.

A saw a very pertinent message on here recently that rung very true:

"When trading is boring you have made it."

I guess the story behind this is when its boring the risks are minimised and the outcome always known. I always know with 100% certainty the outcome of every one of my trades. I either Win or Lose but always with a pre-determined risk/reward structure.

Lee Shepherd
 
Lee

How now old friend:)

Interesting post. For my main equity stuff I use stop and target zones and watch price when it gets into them.

I have an initial stoploss zone and a protective zone @ 1.5:1 when it goes in favour. I will not hang on if price comes back out of my target zone and I'm always "all out" since I know I'll likely get a re-entry if price continues on.

krs

jon
 
samirs said:
since no one has posted a youtube video today I might as well
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this is @AnneMarieTrades from twitter I have followed her for many months

@AnneMarieTrades
Momentum day&swing trader-live trading room moderator, coach, grey&black box systems trader-The New Trading WorkBook is now available
 
Anton Kreil said that the sp500 cash level 1365 has been mentioned by larry fink and abby joseph cohen is a great buying level approximate 5695 for ftse cash.
 
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