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postman
Its just my interpretation but as its still only 5am in New York I think the S&P follows the Dax until later on in the morning.
Its just my interpretation but as its still only 5am in New York I think the S&P follows the Dax until later on in the morning.
You could well be correct but I don't really follow the Dax apart from checking what its doing in relation to the FTSE prior to a trade.
itspossible
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im looking at the dow/ftse/dax correlation-dax is too volatile imho
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postman
I used to trade FTSE regularly but found it too slow to day trade. Shes like an old lady that only moves when she has to.
Dax is a bucking bronco.
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postman
I got my timing slightly wrong on this post.
However its now 6.30 in the morning when any respectable trader has woken up and realised the S&P was way over valued and has sold it to a reasonable level.
The dax appears to have followed suit.
It could be the other way around, but thats the way I see it.
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postman
S&P is now flat.
SPX futures down, FTSE down to 5963 on my platform as I speak. My bias was long FTSE this am pre-open after weekend analysis, after this I have sat on my hands.
Got a good spanking on Friday as FTSE descended through all my levels - anything could happen now at the SPX open. Best to stand aside imho.
counter_violent
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Normal service has resumed I see ! 🙂
Strugglingtrader
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I come in an out of FTSE, she's slow as Postman mentioned, but that suits old man like me fine. I'm buying around 5930 for my sins.
psaTrading
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Before the meeting of the Fed (Tuesday and Wednesday), the attention of investors will be focused on the evolution of crude oil and commodity prices. Broken the barrier of 37 USD / barrel for oil prices, the selling pressure on the equity markets intensified as previously projected, since it stimulated more short selling in oil, mining and industrial sectors. However, the selling positions either in oil or in these sectors is reaching very high levels, which may feed a short-term technical rebound, as these investors may suddenly quit their positions, thus fueling the upward motion.
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postman
Suits me as well! I had a buy stop order in at 5930 from the weekend which did not get triggered this am.
fasten seatbelts this pm!
counter_violent
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well, given the timing of these moves (fed) coupled with oil still tumbling (fuel cost directly affects everything we purchase, no risk of inflation) ( no rate rise justification) then I expect we will continue and possibly accelerate the moves before 16th. In terms of exhaustion, we don't have anything like the right price shape yet.
If the rate rise gets cancelled....get long and hold US side 🙂
I wouldn't bother with the European side until Draghi does some proper QE
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postman
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postman
"IF"
Thats a little retrace from "its never going to happen" are you getting nervous?
MichaelJohnFX
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I'd claim the opposite actually....if rates gets cancelled, short the US. in fact short everything (indices) sell USD
counter_violent
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Well, anything is possible, including the fact that they could go through with it, so as not to lose face or show their impotence or lack of any credibility for example. 😆
Not averse to swapping sides at drop of a hat...but can see no reason to try bottom pick any of these markets as things stand.
counter_violent
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Well, we wont need to wait long to find out....but my money is on my version of events 😆
Atilla
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The blurb is the Fed's lax policy and liquidity easing was in response to extra-ordinary market turmoil experienced.
The message that they 'hope' to communicate is that we are no longer under those market conditions and thus, rates should normalise to long term levels.
They also would like inflation to be 2% or even higher (no reason here but obvious one is to help pay off debt imo).
The puzzle is raising rates will raise dollar and thus add to deflationary pressures as it will hit economic activity and also the price of oil.
The climate talks and agreements in the longer term switch to cleaner energy coupled with excess supply of oil no doubt will add to deflationary pressures.
Finally, China still feels real interest rates are still high due to falling producer prices and some are calling for further rate cuts. to support econmic growth and deflation.
In light of all this if Fed does raise rates, I'm sure it will not take long for US to get cold feet. Last months data showed -ve BoP and deflationary pressures. This is the core driver imo.
Unemployment - although now around 5% does not account for low wages and type of employement. Good many have also dropped off that list.
They should not rise rate imo. However, as CV states they may raise them all the same having talked us all to death through out 2015 about raising them.
Watching the decision will be like watching the finals in World Cup footy. I fear an own goal may end the show. :whistling
