Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

[Dick Lexic]

sorry should say i'm looking at 10 min chart

 

[barjon]

hi bj, el thicko is back

have i got it right ......today 8:20 close at 5762 buy ...8:30 high 5774 potential 12 points?

Mornin' Dick

I've got M5 up - what you're looking for is a reversal attempt around 8:30 give or take 5 minutes - so that's 8:25 - 8:35

Today we got a try at 8:25 which petered out quickly and the best you can say is that the the rise was halted.

We're out of the 9:00 slot now with no sign of a another try for south. Now wait for 10:00.

Typical that when I draw your attention to the times nowt happens

 

[reksa]

Barjon let me know what you think of these charts. I have always liked what you do in theory but I just don't understand how you execute the hedge with the strength or weakness in your favour. I tried using the relative strength indicator on my charts but I could see no clear way to derive the direction. I noticed on IG you can trade the difference between FTSE and DOW so I loaded up the chart and you can clearly see how this year the DOW has gained strength and I noticed there was a channel. Now I don't really know if you can apply any sort of analysis to this chart but I drew a channel and the value looked to be peaking. Just after 3pm I took a short position on the DOW with a plan to hedge FTSE long. The trade never went in the red so I did not bother but if I had the net value would have been positive by 40+ points.

Am I sort of on your wavelength with this Barjon? Anyone else got any thoughts?

Also if you used it to hedge a loss you would need it to come in your favour during market hours. A stop is the safe bet

 

[DaddyJohn]

Perfect Bullish Gartley this morning and smack bang on the value area low from yesterday .. AND on multiple fib support..

Doesnt get much better than that

 

[Sidekicker]

4-5? Where you get that idea?

The 8:30s this week had roughly 16,18,61,60 (the last 2 ignored 9:00) potential (top to bottom)
The 9:00s 19, 45 L, L (last 2 since 8:30 not reversed)
The 10:00s 34,11,L,20
The 15:00s 34, 6, 64, 25

Why not 09:30, 1hr after open? Read a book once that claimed all the big trades were done in the 1st hour. I know it often happens but it seems a bit arbitrary...it's not like if I were a fund manager, I'd spend 60mins exactly firing off trades and then go "oh 10am, better stop this nonsense and get a cuppa".

 

[Sidekicker]

Sidekicker

Doesn;t seem like there's much chance to get into these arbitrages - they move quickly?!
Presumably 2 FTSE:1 DOW size ratio?

Can't get to the reply button you've filled up the screen!!


More than you might think. Here's the ftse differences so far this January.

Done a little DOW/FTSE ratio work here:

 

[barjon]

Why not 09:30, 1hr after open? Read a book once that claimed all the big trades were done in the 1st hour. I know it often happens but it seems a bit arbitrary...it's not like if I were a fund manager, I'd spend 60mins exactly firing off trades and then go "oh 10am, better stop this nonsense and get a cuppa".

Dunno, when I first looked at it the times I mention looked statistically significant for reversals and 9:30 didn't - so I've stuck with them.

 

[Dick Lexic]

Perfect Bullish Gartley this morning and smack bang on the value area low from yesterday .. AND on multiple fib support..

Doesnt get much better than that

hi dj, thought you had ran of with pippa

s&p just got back over 61fib hourly cash

 

[barjon]

Barjon let me know what you think of these charts. I have always liked what you do in theory but I just don't understand how you execute the hedge with the strength or weakness in your favour. I tried using the relative strength indicator on my charts but I could see no clear way to derive the direction. I noticed on IG you can trade the difference between FTSE and DOW so I loaded up the chart and you can clearly see how this year the DOW has gained strength and I noticed there was a channel. Now I don't really know if you can apply any sort of analysis to this chart but I drew a channel and the value looked to be peaking. Just after 3pm I took a short position on the DOW with a plan to hedge FTSE long. The trade never went in the red so I did not bother but if I had the net value would have been positive by 40+ points.

Am I sort of on your wavelength with this Barjon? Anyone else got any thoughts?

Also if you used it to hedge a loss you would need it to come in your favour during market hours. A stop is the safe bet

That looks interesting, Reksa, it must reflect what I'm up to - I'll have to open an IG account and find out

I just do it with numbers each hour. So if DOW has moved 100 points up, FTSE should have moved up 50 - if it's only moved up 40 then it's traded -10 weak and if it's moved 60 +10 strong. That + or - is what I call "difference"

I use it three ways:

1. If that difference becomes extreme (I'm using around 30 currently) I'm not interested in whether the market is going up or down and just keep my eye on the difference. I'll take a pair trade as soon as I see signs that FTSE has stopped trading weak (or strong).

2. If I've taken a straight FTSE trade (say an 8:30 reversal ) I'll hedge it with DOW if it goes against me. Then either live with the pair trade or knock one or the other off depending on what's happening to the difference.

3. If I'm in a successful FTSE trade and come to a danger point (say a 10:00 reversal time ) I'll hedge with DOW to protect if it goes rocky. Then either live with the pair trade or knock one or the other off depending on what's happening to the difference.

jon

 

[barjon]

Done a little DOW/FTSE ratio work here:

Thanks, Sidekicker - I'll have to have a good look at that

 

[Dick Lexic]

s&p seem a bit sluggish..chart giving me just a wee bit of caution

lots of volume around 5790 cash yesterday so ...see if we can get over it

 

[reksa]

Thanks for that explanation Jon.

A friend of mine does something similar with the DAX and FTSE.

 

[Dick Lexic]

s&p just got back over 61fib hourly cash

still bouncing ....boing boing

 

[MartinC-J]

I don't get time and sales with Open ECry, so can't read the tape. I would if it was provided. I do watch for changes in volume on the 1 min chart when price reaches an important level. Sometimes you can see the volume bar moving up rapidly with little change in price. That's sometimes a sign that a reversal is imminent.

Well the price didn't get back to yesterdays high and ran out of steam 14 runs short. The ES pulled back to 50% and should try and retest the low again. FTSE trying to follow. Volume is not great and it really could go either way for now.

 

[MartinC-J]

s&p just got back over 61fib hourly cash

still bouncing ....boing boing

Dick, on the futures the ES retraced to 50% on the 1 hr chart. If it can make it above 1318 that should see a continuation back up.

 

[Dick Lexic]

Dick, on the futures the ES retraced to 50% on the 1 hr chart. If it can make it above 1318 that should see a continuation back up.

your right martin my fib nearer 50 at mo ...still don't like the chart but volume is picking up

 

[MartinC-J]

So where to from here? We either grind back up to 5726 where we were at the time of the GDP data or we pull back to the 20 EMA on the 5 mc and head back down again. That's my two pence worth. Heck most of europe would kill for a GDP of 2.8%. The yanks should be happy with it.

 

[Dick Lexic]

well as fib's would have it we just bounced 5734 cash but i think the s&P is still the stinker
just hope we can close back over 5750

 

[Dick Lexic]

like we've seen before sometimes they will use any excuse just to drive the markets down then the buying starts. think we need a quick reversal .....maybe barjon's got one up his sleeve

 

[Sidekicker]

Thanks, Sidekicker - I'll have to have a good look at that

OOI, how come many seem to prefer the DOW/FTSE relationship?
For example, FTSE, DAX is just as close at the moment.
DOW/FTSE has a correlation of 0.9 in January.
FTSE/DAX has a correlation of 0.93 in January.
I haven't bothered matching up eurostoxx yet but might be of interest.