Dick Lexic
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going for weekly high 59?:idea:
Shows how important timing is. I built the house when prices were depressed and I expected the market to turn around. I ended up selling it for $257,000 after it sat on the market for 11 months. The people who bought it off me sold it for $650,000 12 months later. There's no point in getting in early if you're the only one there. You need a crowd!
Looks like a classic one way day to me. No retracements more than the middle boly band on the 5 min chart. Consistently makes newer highs throughout the morning, with each high getting more exhausted each time. If it retraces more than 23%, then the one way day is over.
We did get a retracement that went below the MBB 5mc, but it bounced off the LBB. The 23% retracement still held. Looks to me as if it might just make it to the 5334 level, by then we will be getting closer to lunchtime and the ADP non-farms. The FESX did break below the 23% retracement level, which adds a note of caution, but I think the FTSE is going to ignore that.
What period do you have your Bollinger Band set too on the 5min?
The only retracements im seeing are on a 1min with a 18 period bollinger.
I find it hard to find a good entry point when its climbing up like this.
I suspect the ADP jobs change might bring the markets down, but who knows, bad news is now good news.
dc2000
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for me I have it short there is no double hit for the long and a long would be out of pattern. a short into the close with the DOW taking it further overnight and FTSE bringing it up tomorrow for more shorting
5334 is ideal entry for me and a price of 365 would not concern me any higher though may cause a recalc to the down side I have 2 targets now of 5054 and 4968
5334 is ideal entry for me and a price of 365 would not concern me any higher though may cause a recalc to the down side I have 2 targets now of 5054 and 4968
Reksa - I use an 8 period setting for boly bands on a 5 min chart. You can use 10 or 12, but I don't like anything higher than that for short term trading. The 8 period setting gives you a middle line that is the same as the 8 period simple moving average. Above this line and your bias should be long. Below it, then short. You should then use the 1 min chart to time your entries and enter with trend most of the time except for when you think it has bounced off a strong level.
You are not alone in finding it difficult to get in on a market making new highs. Ideally, you need to be patient and wait for a lower risk entry and enter on a pullback to within a point or two of the middle boly band on the 5 min chart.
As I type this one way day is close to being over. It has tested the 23% retracement 3 times now, and the ES and FESX are both below their 23% levels. If the 23% retracement level 5305.5 goes then 38% should arrive soon at 5295. Note these are futures prices and not cash prices.
As for the ADP non-farms, they beat expectations last time but were much worse than the month before. It spiked up for about 10 minutes after the data, and then the FTSE tanked by 100 pts between 2:30pm and 5pm.
I will give the 8 period on the 5 min a test and see how a get on. I have used the 18 period on the 1 min a while, along with RSI and MACD, but i have way less signals. Do you use the 8 period on your 1 min too?
Yep the 23% is still intact. I also got a RSI <30 so I decided to trade against the short term trend for 5 points. A trade I don’t like doing but I missed out on one of my signals around 8:20 this morning which turned out to be good for 48 points.
Sometimes I dig myself into a hole as I really felt like today was going to trade down. The sell off in the last 10 mins on the Dow just confirmed my feelings. Wish i could just go with the flow and follow the charts at times.
I remember the ADP last month. Very hard to predict what will happen. Big data over the next few days, not sure what could stop this rally. I suspect it will be much like yesterday, a spike down and rally on hopes of more stimulus.
Dick Lexic
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dc2000
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needs to make sure everyones on the same hymm sheet
I hope he's not snoring. Nothing worse than singing hymns with someone behind snoring.
I use a 12 period boly band on the one minute chart, and it works the best by far. I also use 12 period for the 1 hour chart, but I don't really use bolys on the 1 hour chart to trade off. On the bigger time frame S/R levels are more important.
Amazingly the 23% level held, allowing for a 1 tick fake. All one day rules are void at 1:15pm and the ADP non farms.
As for the sell off in the last 10 mins of the Dow, just remember prior to 8:45pm it was all one way up, so it could just be longs closing and no specific sell off. Yes the FTSE sold off at the open and had two legs down, but the 5250 level held. And at 8:18am when it crossed above the MBB on the 1 min chart, it was looking like a test of the opening high 5286.5 was on the cards. It traded sideways until the German employment data came out, and then broke out at 8:58am once the data had been digested. From that point on, I treated it as a one way day.
Dick Lexic
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dc2000
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What page number are we on?
this may help
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_7JrmF90ek&feature=related
