BSD
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I suppose what he's been saying on the thread supports my own prejudices. The best traders I know simply aren't interested in "home runs". Without exception they all chase momentum in one way or another, leap into it as soon as they can, kill it quick if it doesn't continue and exit when it tails off. They have the odd "home run" from time to time, but only because the momentum has been unfaltering.
I totally agree that makes very good money.
Lets say that that's is Linda Raschkes approach who is certainly wealthy enough for anyones needs.
Just not sure if that gets you howling with the top dogs:
Brett Steenbarger now at Paul Tudor Jones Hedge Funds:
"...As a rule, maximizing batting average/minimizing drawdown comes at the cost of lowering overall system profitability...."
-Richard Dennis former Turtles partner William Eckhardt corroborated that in Market Wizards:
William Eckhardt:
The Win/Loss Ratio
“One common adage on this subject that is completely wrongheaded is: You can’t go broke taking profits. That’s precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits. The problem in a nutshell is that human nature does not operate to maximize gain but rather to maximize the chance of a gain. The desire to maximize the number of winning trades (or minimize the number of losing trades) works against the trader. The success rate of trades is the least important performance statistic and may even be inversely related to performance. …
What really matters is the long-run distributions of outcomes from your trading techniques, systems, and procedures. But, psychologically, what seems of paramount importance is whether the positions that you have right now are going to work. Current positions seem to be crucial beyond any statistical justification. It’s quite tempting to bend your rules to make your current trades work, assuming that the favorability of your long-term statistics will take care of future profitability. Two of the cardinal sins of trading - giving losses too much rope and taking profits prematurely - are both attempts to make current positions more likely to succeed, to the severe detriment of long-term performance.
Market Wizards
-Billionaire hedge fund manager Bruce Kovner:
Michael Marcus taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money.
Whenever I enter a position, I have a predetermined stop. That is the only way I can sleep. I know where I'm getting out before I get in. The position size on a trade is determined by the stop, and the stop is determined on a technical basis. I never think about other people who may be using the same stop, because the market shouldn't go there if I am right.
Market Wizards
- Richard Dennis (Turtles daddy, who turned 400 bucks into several hundred million):
When things go bad, traders shouldn't stick their head in the sand and just hope it gets better.
You should always have a worst-case point. The only choice should be to get out quicker.
The worst mistake a trader can make is to miss a major profit opportunity. 95 percent of profits come from only 5 percent of the trades.
- Bill Lipschutz (Biggest earning earning trader for many years at the then investment bank Salomon Brothers before he started his own hedge fund):
I don't have a problem letting my profits run, which many traders do. You have to be able to let your profits run. I don't think you can consistently be a winner trading if you're banking on being right more than 50 percent of the time. You have to figure out how to make money by being right only 20 to 30 percent of the time."
New Market Wizards
An observation echoed by Kenneth Grant, who in "Trading Risk: Enhanced Profitability through Risk Control", depicts his experience as risk manager for some of the best and most successful hedge funds, amongst others Paul Tudor Jones funds and Steve Cohens SAC Capital, that:
Across all market conditions, trading styles, time frames and traders, one rule holds true:
10% of all trades inevitably account for 90% of profits !
- George Soros:
I don't care when I'm wrong. I cut my losses and move on to the next opportunity. Trading is not about being right, it's about how much you make when you are right.
Some more stuff:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/edu...er-richer-than-most-traders-3.html#post373156
That said Jon, Paul Rotter did exactly what you're saying, and he was making tens of millions scalping the Bund, and anyone who says that kinda money isn't enough is talking through his hat.
But there are lots of ways to get there, don't really think there is only one
right way.
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