Active day and swing traders

[marben]

'morning all,

Well, HNS short triggered for me this morning. Sold @ 579. Weekly MACD has just turned down from a high. Elder FI positive, though daily stochastic still low. Fundamentally, HNS is vulnerable to a downturn in the building market & has a patchy track record - price currently seems overdone.

I'm getting a bit worried that too many trades are triggering. I have shorts in SGE, CPG & JMAT in view also. Not sure whether I need to tighten my trigger criteria. Unfortunately I'll have to let these trades run & then wait for another month or so (to let the price evolve) to check whether the triggers were good. I wonder whether thin summer volumes are causing above average volatility and leading to spurious triggering. Over the last 4 weeks I'm in a small overall loss (on completed trades), which is pretty poor. I'll need to stick with my current tactics for now, though & see how things evolve.

Current position:

Long TATE, SBRY, CPI, HMSO; short LLOY (50%), MKS, DXNS, WTB, IHG, HNS

Good trading,

Mark

 

[Euro_d]

Hi Mark et al,
Agree the low vols, typical of summer are a cause of volatility. I also think the oil price is causing a lot of trouble. As the saying goes, markets do not like uncertainty!

I am surprised that you are in so many shorts, I too have them on the radar but UKX continues to be robust since May. As normal I guess that Mid Sept will see a couple of months of short opps.

Personally, I am avoiding shorts at the moment even though as a technical man (no fundamentals. well not many) there seem to be signals.

However, I agree with your choices, LLOY was signaled early July at around 490 Also HNS from early Aug @ 590. were you in from there?
If so, spot on, well done!

 

[barjon]

............I'm getting a bit worried that too many trades are triggering. .............
Mark

mornin' all

I sympathise with that Mark - I've cleared out emg, ba, hg, ulvr at b/e to reduce exposure, but then stan triggered this morning You may recall I missed the last rise in stan because of standing clear of results, but I'm not trying to shut the door after the horse has bolted, honest

Left with aal, anto, xta, jmat and stan - all long

good trading

jon

 

[marben]

Hi Mark et al,
Personally, I am avoiding shorts at the moment even though as a technical man (no fundamentals. well not many) there seem to be signals.

However, I agree with your choices, LLOY was signaled early July at around 490 Also HNS from early Aug @ 590. were you in from there?
If so, spot on, well done!

I think I use rather "unconventional" signals :cheesy: compared to most participants in this thread. 'fraid I only got into LLOY @ 469 on 11/8 & HNS today. Not complaining about LLOY, though - that one's done v nicely for me (took 50% profits @ 457.25 on 19/8).

I guess I'm getting all the short signals because prices had a very good run up from May - July & many stocks are now showing a drop-off in bullishness. Those months were all profitable for me, May & July especially so.

BTW, I use the fundamentals simply as an extra filter for my chart signals: if fundys contradict the trend, I tend to leave the trade alone.

 

[barjon]

mmm, suppose it depends on your particular technique. For me, it's always proved to be a lot riskier trading against the market trend. Hence I only take half positions on trades against the market. At the moment I've got ftse in uptrend so I favour longs and it's half positions on shorts.

 

[marben]

mmm, suppose it depends on your particular technique. For me, it's always proved to be a lot riskier trading against the market trend. Hence I only take half positions on trades against the market. At the moment I've got ftse in uptrend so I favour longs and it's half positions on shorts.

Well Jon...

According to my methods the UKX100 uptrend is in doubt! From the attached chart (if it comes through - this is my first attempt at adding an attachment), Weekly MACD has turned down from a high & weekly price is also starting to move down, so....

Good trading!

Mark

 

[khi]

i am getting ready to go full size on rtr, if breaks 373.75 on bid.

 

[barjon]

mark

oooh - a picture, luvvly jubbly

yes, that's the trouble talking about trend - everyone's got their own interpretation. for my purposes i just assume continuation of the trend until a previous swing high/low goes. ftse made a potential swing low at 5264 (which will be confirmed by a new high above 5387) and the previous one was at 5180.

good trading

jon

 

[khi]

hello guys

nice graphs, i'd love to post mine too. but not sure how to do it but anyway, my graph is still showing an uptrend unless it breaks the previous low of 5263, I would be reluctant to short before this level is broken. so for the time being, i buy on dip. but mind you a few banks have been taking the dive, re mark's lloy (nice one) think i will buy a few soon.


kim

 

[khi]

ah this is the best i can do, think u need to click on it
:cheesy:

 

[khi]

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ volumn is dead thin, so beware of whipsaw guys

 

[khi]

added more rtr, COME ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

 

[marben]

Got stopped in short to SGE @ 235.5 . Weekly MACD has just turned down. Daily stochastic is in slow decline but FI remains +ve & price has gone below yesterday's low. On fundy's SGE has got a bit pricey (prospective P/E nearly 20) & is due a bit of a correction.

OK that's enough With 11 trades runnning I'm not entering any more until I complete some of these. Not doing so goes against my grain/strategy but my confidence has taken a bit of a knock lately, so I'd like to get some verification that my strategy/tactics are working before risking more.

It's still only 20% of my trading capital at risk in total but this is getting a bit scary for me. I guess it's going to be a white knuckle ride for the next 2-4 weeks.

Wish me luck!

Mark

 

[khi]

Got stopped in short to SGE @ 235.5 . Weekly MACD has just turned down. Daily stochastic is in slow decline but FI remains +ve & price has gone below yesterday's low. On fundy's SGE has got a bit pricey (prospective P/E nearly 20) & is due a bit of a correction.

OK that's enough With 11 trades runnning I'm not entering any more until I complete some of these. Not doing so goes against my grain/strategy but my confidence has taken a bit of a knock lately, so I'd like to get some verification that my strategy/tactics are working before risking more.

It's still only 20% of my trading capital at risk in total but this is getting a bit scary for me. I guess it's going to be a white knuckle ride for the next 2-4 weeks.

Wish me luck!

Mark

whenever i lose money, i look at it as an initial investment that will yield decent return later. so good luck mark

 

[barjon]

well luck isn't in the dictionary either so i won't wish you any

wish you success though and, if you'll excuse the granny and eggs, don't let the white knuckles disturb your discipline - you've proved your strategy to be sound.

good trading

jon

 

[marben]

whenever i lose money, i look at it as an initial investment that will yield decent return later. so good luck mark

Ta Kim,

I'm expecting to make a very nice profit on this lot, once it works through :cheesy:, though I'd expect some of the trades will end up as losers along the way. DXNS & WTB are getting a bit close to my stops, so they may go soon. Still, if that happened it'd free up some margin allowing me to enter more trades :cheesy: , as dictated by the signals.

Cheers,

Mark

 

[khi]

i have been holding this kgf long for nearly a couple of weeks no, its showing some activities at last, any thoughts guys?

 

[marben]

well luck isn't in the dictionary either so i won't wish you any

wish you success though and, if you'll excuse the granny and eggs, don't let the white knuckles disturb your discipline - you've proved your strategy to be sound.

good trading

jon

Quite right Jon! (the "luck" must have been a slip of the typing finger ). I haven't borken any of my rules on these (there are no signals for me to get out of any of these yet), so if they don't work out overall, I'll have to have a look at the rules!

Thanks,

Mark

 

[marben]

i have been holding this kgf long for nearly a couple of weeks no, its showing some activities at last, any thoughts guys?

Well on a weekly MACD, it's still trending up. The daily stochastic is quite high though, so I reckon there's significant risk of a fall sometime in the next few days. May be worth setting a stop to take profits if it falls more than you're comfortable with.

Cheers,

Mark

 

[khi]

Well on a weekly MACD, it's still trending up. The daily stochastic is quite high though, so I reckon there's significant risk of a fall sometime in the next few days. May be worth setting a stop to take profits if it falls more than you're comfortable with.

Cheers,

Mark

thanks mark, i am up a few pennies at the mo and my stop is at sub52, think i will let it run, cos Warren B has been buying. got to give the man some credit ey :cheesy:

kim