Active day and swing traders

[marben]

mark

oooh - a picture, luvvly jubbly

yes, that's the trouble talking about trend - everyone's got their own interpretation. for my purposes i just assume continuation of the trend until a previous swing high/low goes. ftse made a potential swing low at 5264 (which will be confirmed by a new high above 5387) and the previous one was at 5180.

good trading

jon

'morning Jon et al,

So, with the FTSE now at 5251, where do you think things will go from here? [I'm probably about to get a slap ]. Personally, I suspect we'll get a bounce back (maybe early next week) and then it'll go lower again.

Cheers,

Mark

 

[Euro_d]

'morning Jon et al,

So, with the FTSE now at 5251, where do you think things will go from here? [I'm probably about to get a slap ]. Personally, I suspect we'll get a bounce back (maybe early next week) and then it'll go lower again.

Cheers,

Mark

For what it is worth my take on UKX is that we are still strong(ish). BUT, we are now below the 5 & 20 MA and below the trend that goes back to April. However we are now at the lower Boll band.
IMHO, if we close lower today we have a clear medium term trend line break. There is a clear short term TL that is sending down signals and unless we see a break of 5300 then we are short term weak.

Reading the above the conclusion is????

 

[marben]

Orning all,
just entered LLOY long @ 453.
Stopped out on WG. for a small loss.

Re entering trade times. I do not enter for the first 15 / 30 minutes of market open.

Not sure if I am comfortable with Mark's idea of removing stops overnight. I can see the point to prevent whipsaw stops. I have only once (recently) had a problem with RTR but that in fact tunned out to be a true drop not a whip!

However, there is total logic in slackening the stop. Something for discussion and thought.

Not much on the radar this morning, possibly ACM but...

Good trading.

Hi Euro_d,

Several things there! Firstly LLOY... mmm I was debating with myself last night with to start a trailing stop to exit the other half of my LLOY short yet - it does look ready for a bounce back sometime soon. Checking back on my notes though, when I entered that trade, it hasn't really met my exit criterion yet, so I'll let it run untl the daily stochastic %K goes back below 20, or the stochastic turns up after the next bottom. I'm trying to let my trades run for longer than I used to, as I found I was consistently exiting too soon.

On the stops: I must admit there is a lot of sense in loosening stops overnight rather than removing them altogther. However, this tactic has been OK for me over the last year, so in my case "if it aint broke don't fix it" applies. My reasoning is that if there is a serious adverse price move overnight a stop won't protect you much (I don't use "guaranteed stop losses" as they cost too much). Also there's a significant risk you'd get stopped at the worst possible price. Now my technique does mean a) that it's vital I'm at my desk and ready before markets open; b) EXTREME discpline is required in the event of such a price movement.

Good trading!

Mark

 

[marben]

Short BATS at 1105. Signals look very strong on this one to me: weekly MACD has turned down severely. Daily stochastic is at a peak. Price has dropped below yesterday's low. Selling pressure on level 2 looks strong... so the price is bound to rise :cheesy:.

OK, now I haven't got room on my screens to monitor any more trades!!! Position:

Long CPI, HMSO, SBRY, TATE; Short BATS, DXNS, EMG, HNS, IHG, JMAT, LLOY(50%), MKS, SGE

Cheers,

Mark

 

[khi]

morning all

Pop, pop, pop. got stopped out on rbs, bought some bp.

nice one mark, i guess your margin has come back up again.

kim

 

[khi]

new long on ipr

 

[khi]

long some lloy half size.

 

[barjon]

'morning Jon et al,

So, with the FTSE now at 5251, where do you think things will go from here? [I'm probably about to get a slap ]. Personally, I suspect we'll get a bounce back (maybe early next week) and then it'll go lower again.

Cheers,

Mark

mornin' mark

bit late on parade this morning - been trying to persuade my grandson to take his losses on hsba but he's insisting on waiting for a bounce All sound familiar from our early days!!

so far as ftse is concerned a close below 5264 will set an amber light flashing and that'll turn to red if the first correction fails or we close below 5180. In the wider context the correction of the rise since the last major correction ended at the end of april still hasn't reached even the first fib level so it's a bit early to be thinking trend change from that perspective. At the beginning of 2002 we did have 7 months or so of congestion bouncing around between 5000 and 5300 and i wouldn't be surprised to see more of that now.

in our shorter time horizons that 5180 level is still key for me.

good trading

jon

 

[Splitlink]

mornin' mark

bit late on parade this morning - been trying to persuade my grandson to take his losses on hsba but he's insisting on waiting for a bounce All sound familiar from our early days!!

so far as ftse is concerned a close below 5264 will set an amber light flashing and that'll turn to red if the first correction fails or we close below 5180. In the wider context the correction of the rise since the last major correction ended at the end of april still hasn't reached even the first fib level so it's a bit early to be thinking trend change from that perspective. At the beginning of 2002 we did have 7 months or so of congestion bouncing around between 5000 and 5300 and i wouldn't be surprised to see more of that now.

in our shorter time horizons that 5180 level is still key for me.

good trading

jon

Er, just a minute, a slight deviation from the job. How old is your grandson? I'm 73 and my eldest is not 7, yet!

I'm trying to get my watch list come to me so that I can short, but they won't and I'm not chasing them.

Split

 

[marben]

Hi Euro_d,

Good call on LLOY!

Cheers,

Mark

 

[Euro_d]

Hi Jon,
Yep I can see where you get your numbers from. 5180 is a test of the July low (ignoring 7 July) and that would certainly be a flashing red light. Incidentally, the 5263 level is also the lower Boll band, breaking below that is fairly significant but coupled with low of the 17 Aug.
5259 was an intraday short today which proved correct (dropped to 5243) so I will be looking to enter intraday short again at a test of that (5243) low. Sorry, lower low.
Seems that we have no direction from the US yet.

Anyway, I think I am slightly off topic talking about intraday FTSE trades, if you agree tell me and I will refrain from posting my ramblings, on that subject at least..

 

[marben]

Hmm...

Just read on wires that there are rumours of a bid by Wells Fargo for LLOY...

 

[marben]

Hmm...

Just read on wires that there are rumours of a bid by Wells Fargo for LLOY...

Well... let's see whether anything more concrete emerges. If it does, I'll be straight out. Otherwise, I'm ready for a nice drop back. My guess is that this rumour is a bit of a "tree shaker". This'll be a good one to watch today.

Cheers,

Mark

 

[Euro_d]

Thanks Mark,
Hope you stopped and reversed?
Must eat humble pie and admit I made a bo boo re SLOU, I missed that they reported today and did not close at yesterdays highs. Cost me a couple of ticks but at least I made 4 points, enough for a round of golf and a nice dinner afterwards!

PS, have a look at the joke of the day thread, nice one posted yesterday!

 

[marben]

Thanks Mark,
Hope you stopped and reversed?...

No way! Not my trading style (long term swing/positional trader, not day trader). My stop is way above this level at the moment. As I said, I expect to ride this out, unless some real news comes out, or I do go through my stop.

Must have a look at that joke...

Cheers,

Mark

 

[barjon]

Er, just a minute, a slight deviation from the job. How old is your grandson? I'm 73 and my eldest is not 7, yet!

I'm trying to get my watch list come to me so that I can short, but they won't and I'm not chasing them.

Split

split

he's 13 - i was married young

same here with my watch list - never able to take advantage of corrections (or early days in a reversal), mostly just get a slate of potential longs.

good trading

jon

 

[barjon]

euro

 

[khi]

mmm lloy, it needs to hold above 463 at close, but its got a proper set up for an up swing, think i will stay in as only bought half size. what do u reckon euro_d?

 

[marben]

Short BATS at 1105. Signals look very strong on this one to me: ... so the price is bound to rise :cheesy:.

Looks like I was right then! (up 5 points so far).

 

[Euro_d]

Well KHI, what do I think of LLOY.
I see it as a short bounce, probably on the bid rumour. I can see nothing to support a long until we reach the lows of May around 445 which is where I see support.
So therefore I am basically bullish.

So why did I go long?
A very short term and small trade as it has popped above the 5ma and the fact tact that it seems to be retracing to the medium trend . Granted, the slight upmove was/is on very low volume . If can hold above the 463 ish level then I think we could retract back up to almost 500.
To be confident of my long I would really like to see the 5 & 20 ma cross.
That is a big but and I have very tight stops in place as Mark has said the trend is certainly down.