A Master Class in FX Intraday Trading by F & Co

[Forexmospherian]

Hi Sun

I have put some arrows on it

After you have had a look - I will then take you through it in more detail

i WOULD NOT JUST SCALP BUY OR SELL ATM

MAYBE IN NEXT 7 MINS

EJ

Chart from approx 90 mins ago

I have shown the scalp buy off the tick chart from 2 51 pm

Thats gone up 50 pips so far and topped at old high level - so far

Remember we marked the area with arrows

Heres the 1 min chart now after latest news and moves

 

[Forexmospherian]

Back now after 4 30 pm or so

See you later - a great 90+ mins of intraday trading

 

[sun11]

Hi Sun

Well Done - but we have to break your habit of finding BTTZ areas

News in 2 mins

Yes but I don't know how to predict BTTZ in advance. Generally when I take those trades market stays in normal condition.

I am today -12 pips loss on daily pl. Already too late...
See u tommorow..
GN.

 

[NickBk]

GU

11 20 am

So far made 4019 / 20

I have partials on from yesterday still as always looked upon 3860 and 3895/ 3900 as being important supports for further rises up

3910 was the false - stop hunt before the rise carried on and now we need to stay above ideally 3970 - but most importnat 3935/40 to stay with the bullish PS for now

Will not be back until near 1 00 pm and hope to be trading at my desk after 2 00 pm

GL guys

PS - my EA sell partials got taken out at 5205 - shame - but that was my best sell of the morning and I exited 70% about 5145 ish area before I left and left the 30% on with stop in profit at approx 5205

Hi F,

Been very very busy on GJ the beast. Rather a record in lots too. Quite a few straight lines up and down and my early starts for sure did me good today. I had a lot of EA too but GJ was financially better due to size.

We spoke about this before, in your example above you mention the stop out on EA. Was your stop so wide as you were out and not able to manage the trade?

I mention it because I have analysed 3000 trades now and I can tell you from my figures it would be detrimental to the bottom line to be so loose with partials.
I have a set amount for partials and now working it down to a fixed amount on each pair.

I guess when I get to 15000 trades I will have a clearer picture.

Good luck and another belter of a day, they keep coming.

 

[Forexmospherian]

4 38pm

My 2 pairs that made me good monies this afternoon -

UCad after 1 30 pm news - over 110 pip drop

Ej - 17 pip fall - 90 pip rise after 2 51 pm

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi F,

Been very very busy on GJ the beast. Rather a record in lots too. Quite a few straight lines up and down and my early starts for sure did me good today. I had a lot of EA too but GJ was financially better due to size.

We spoke about this before, in your example above you mention the stop out on EA. Was your stop so wide as you were out and not able to manage the trade?

I mention it because I have analysed 3000 trades now and I can tell you from my figures it would be detrimental to the bottom line to be so loose with partials.
I have a set amount for partials and now working it down to a fixed amount on each pair.

I guess when I get to 15000 trades I will have a clearer picture.

Good luck and another belter of a day, they keep coming.

Hi Nick

Good question

OK with the GU I left partials on from last night- already with a stop in a small profit

At the peak - whilst I was out it made 4019 - over 100+ pips from my partial buy stop

I viewed it from out in Burton on Trent after 11 15 am

I needed it to stay above 3980 - and in the end I was stopped out still for over 80 pips - as I could see it was a scalp sell under 4008

So I gained 80 pips on 30% - but missed out on over 110 pips maybe if I got have got out at top - so 30+ pips lost at 30% - so like 9 pips at 100% stake size.

I did not uses a 10 or 15 pip trailing stop - sometimes they are better than leaving a partial just in say 2 to 10 pips of profit and hoping

In my last 5 years I have had several partial stakes make over 400+ pips and 2 partial I left on in 2013 and 2014 made 900+ pips and 1000 pips in just one trade

All my partials have stops in profit - but sometime its so annoying and frustrating to have a partial up say 160 + pips and you get stopped 80 - 100 pips lower when out

Dont forget when I am not out - I scalp against my partials at 100% stake against 30% on partial

So for example let say a partial stake in up 60 pips - and then I see a 10 -30 pip scalp sell opportunity - I might leave partial buy on - sell on scalp and then exit and let the partial take over again - that way you make money both ways

I have not done a real maths view on whether I am betting staying with 100% stakes and a trailing stop of say 15 pips - but to me - I like stress free trading ( my age) and so once I have 70% out and stop in profit I can generally relax - knowing what ever happens - I cannot lose money - even if I dont optimise it

The expert on the PPND is Sir Gissachance - but he does it differently to me - but I know he keeps it a close secret - even with the "good guys" as he calls them - and then the rest - he might give them a bum steer - unless they are smart enough to read and understand his riddles etc etc -

If you are comfortable enough to leave say 50 or 75% stakes on and just bank say 25 -50% then you might find it better and more profitable - but I suppose I just want a no loss scenario - rather than an optimum profit squeeze - simply because of less pressure - etc

Regards


Peter

I

 

[Forexmospherian]

Yes but I don't know how to predict BTTZ in advance. Generally when I take those trades market stays in normal condition.

I am today -12 pips loss on daily pl. Already too late...
See u tommorow..
GN.

Hi Sun

I think you realise you main improvement as to come from a better win ratios - ideally over 65%

Atm your stops are tight but you on a live account are maybe too nervous and so jump in trades when you should not and then lose 3 -7 pips

Cherry pick with time windows and pace yourself

Ie before 7 00 am UK time - only take more than say 2 scalps if you are in net profit

Take even 4 or 8 + if you only have 1 or 2 losses - but dont take 5 scalps and have 4 losses and be down - as then after 7 00 am to 9 30 am is the peak moves times

Ideally after LO we start to see better and then the 15 -50 pip scalps are on

By say 9 30 am - if you are having a bad run - you should be on less that 6 scalps - but if your win ratio are over say 65% - MM's still over 80% most of time - then even if you have taken say 15 scalps - its no problem - you are probably double your target

You then have another 2 to 5 hrs to try and make sure you catch a few good movers

If you are not over target by 9 30 am - then its fire saving - dont make it twice as worse etc

If you are well over double your target - risk say 15 pips - if its gone on 3 losses stop - If you carry on winning and not burn up 15 pips - takes as many scalps as you like - you might have a good run and get 10 consecutive winners and make another 80 + pips

Its all controlled and thought out - like your levels need to be - it needs planning and great money management - but if we cannot get your win ratios over 50% + then thats the problem

I would like to get you try for a month a tick chart on say 2 pairs - an easy one - AU - UJ even anbd then maybe the EJ or GU

It would speed you up and make you focuse more quickly and understand the movements better etc etc e

We can only do it when you feel the 1 min is now normally slow for you and not just as though its too fast still

Many 15 and 30 min traders cannot adjust to a 1 min under 3 or 6 months - they feel its too fast

You have to let me know what you think and when you are ready etc etc



Regards


Peter

 

[eyasu]

This post by Sir G, caught into my eyes.

I know PPND full form.

But about the TWMPASTSAS

I got following combination:
PAST AS
PAST AT
PAST WAS
....but yes not much after that...

About post 7:6 is
Matthew 7:6: "Give not that which is holy to the dogs, neither cast you your pearls before swine, lest they trample them under their feet, and turn again and rend you."

I guess no need to explain that...

Am I close?

Regards

Sun,
A desperate woman came with a petition of healing for her daughter. She got a very offending reply "woman, it is not appropriate to take children's bread and throw it to the dogs." She had every right and reason to be offended. But instead she humbled herself and said "Yes Lord, but even the dogs eat the crumbs which fall from their masters table." In the end her petition was answered and was considered as a woman of great faith, a title which only is given to an extraordinary people (Matthew 15:22-28). We are here like dogs in any case we get some crumbs under masters table.
Eyasu

 

[trendie]

Sun,
A desperate woman came with a petition of healing for her daughter. She got a very offending reply "woman, it is not appropriate to take children's bread and throw it to the dogs." She had every right and reason to be offended. But instead she humbled herself and said "Yes Lord, but even the dogs eat the crumbs which fall from their masters table." In the end her petition was answered and was considered as a woman of great faith, a tile which only is given to an extraordinary people (Matthew 15:22-28). We are here like dogs in any case we get some crumbs under masters table.
Eyasu

This is confusing. Do I need a Bibble to trade like FxM?

Dogs and crumbs? I thought it was about cats and bags!

(I think I need to renew my membership of the Hermetic Order of the Golden Dawn). :cheesy::cheesy:

as always, good trading, especically FxMs running commentary.

 

[Forexmospherian]

EJ

3 09pm

We need you to progress to the TIck chart Sun to speed you up

Heres the EJ Tick

EJ

7 00 pm Update

The above scalp buy off a tick chart as now risen approx 120+ pips

This is why ideally when you take scalps that then go into strong bull or bear price structure bias - you leave some partial on - with astop already in profit

I have not had to baby sit the partial other then check either every 30 or 60 mins - not like a scalp that needs full focus for 5 to 20 mins normally

Sun got out her sell at a good time - but after 30 mins and 60 mins and no new low she should have then bought

Its all part of the FX learning game - and even after 14 years - I am still continuing to adapt and learn from mistakes and things that go to plan

I hope its been a good day for you


Regards


F

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi F,

Been very very busy on GJ the beast. Rather a record in lots too. Quite a few straight lines up and down and my early starts for sure did me good today. I had a lot of EA too but GJ was financially better due to size.

We spoke about this before, in your example above you mention the stop out on EA. Was your stop so wide as you were out and not able to manage the trade?

I mention it because I have analysed 3000 trades now and I can tell you from my figures it would be detrimental to the bottom line to be so loose with partials.
I have a set amount for partials and now working it down to a fixed amount on each pair.

I guess when I get to 15000 trades I will have a clearer picture.

Good luck and another belter of a day, they keep coming.

Sorry Nick

Realised you said EJ and I commented on my GU partial

EJ still got a profit on my partial - but only 60% of what it could have been if I had managed to exit at or around its high after only 30 mins after I left

In the end did not matter as caught a cracking buy after 2 51 pm and after 3 00 pm on the EJ this afternoon and this as since moved up over 120+ pips

Now will leave one partial on with stop in profit 50 pips lower rather than exiting now. In real turns 50 pips is only like a 14 pip scalp on full stake and so I am not bothered as even if I get stopped out still 24 pips of partial profit in it.

I would not do this if I only took say 2 or 4 trades a day - but when on over 15 trades in a session - you have got enough pips to play with to speculate more with your extra gains

See you in morning

Regards


Peter

 

[NickBk]

Hi F,
Just wrapped up a 17 hour day, now off to bed, the GJ was too good to leave had another near straight line up and back down again. I have some lots left but with a meaner stop than you.

My earlier comment was in relation to ''PS - my EA sell partials got taken out at 5205 - shame - but that was my best sell of the morning and I exited 70% about 5145 ish area before I left and left the 30% on with stop in profit at approx 5205''

You have given up 60 pips there, even on partials its 18 pips or 36% of your 50 pips target. It is too much. After that move it was likely to retrace and statistically you will not get a proper reward for the pips at risk. Because it is in profit they are still pips and real money, so I guess we have a difference of opinion.

You like to get a r/r on a trade of 3/1 so in giving back 60 you must have hoped to get 180 more. Now that was unlikely in the circumstance and as I said I am starting to build a database on this. You still can have a free trade and no stress but just a tighter stop.

I am not trying to teach the master, it is just something that I have spent a lot of time thinking about it and working on as I maybe sold my full position off too fast at the beginning.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi Nick

Long day that & I know you are no 25 - 35 yr old - but again if its all been worth while and you have done really well - I take my hat off to you.

Will be interesting to get some percentages off your stats - as mine are based loosely on the following ball park figures all based on batches of 100 trades

Win ratio average 72% ( 61 % low and 87% high with mean weighted )

Out of every 10 trades - average 3 lose or are b/o - 4 make 7 to 15 pips only and 3 have possibility to end up making over 25+ pips

Only 1 out of every 10 trades goes over 100+ pips - that might be just 120 pips or 500 + pips without any pullback going under 55% of the last wave move. On a 300 pips move I would want to not lose more than 60% of it on any pullbacks - but again its how long it takes to do the 300 pips - ie if in a day - then easier to be tighter on it - if over 2 or 3 days more difficult as would not want lose focus on my core money earners ie scalps on 100% stakes from 7 to 25 + pips in under say 20 mins

Like you - I know I could always improve - but I am no longer into too much stress and plus the fact day in day out after 8 yrs - you lose the energy to chase 500+ pip sessions etc

I am always willing to adjust and so no problem if you can prove from your stats a different strategy on partial stakes etc


Regards


Peter

 

[MajorMagnuM]

Thanks for sharing.
I would not look to sell until the price properly breaks the medium lr's and they kept rising until the price of 82 (previous high from over 2 hrs).
Now you could tell me that you sold at 07.40 and I can get into that but it was still above my longer lr's and as such it would then be a pure 6-8 pips scalp without any confidence of a longer move.
I am trying to get a few more parts aligned (as I posted charts before) and then I know I could be in for a lot more pips. Less comms, more potential and better r/r.
Good luck

yes but this is part of the way to catch tops of large unexpected moves

 

[NickBk]

Like you - I know I could always improve - but I am no longer into too much stress and plus the fact day in day out after 8 yrs - you lose the energy to chase 500+ pip sessions etc

We are talking about stops in profit only, so there is no extra work, just set the stop in a different place.

I am always willing to adjust and so no problem if you can prove from your stats a different strategy on partial stakes etc

As for 'prove' I would say I need more trades and that each pair is different. Obviously one needs a bigger stop on GA, GJ than GU and EU. I would say for now one shouldn't give back more than 25/28 pips optimally. This is based on a few hundred trades where it was relevant. I am sure we can all find trades where that would not be enough but over and over again that is the most in terms of pip preservation.

Hope that gives you something to go on.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hope that gives you something to go on.

Thanks Nick

Re stress and pressure etc - was referring to your 17 hr day yesterday - ideal nowadays 4 to 6 hrs maximum for trading - and I will say this year so far its been less than that some days - compared to last few years were I also might have a couple of days well over 7+ hrs every week over a window of say 12 hrs

Good Trading and have another good day

 

[Forexmospherian]

Wednesday 3nd March 2016 - Pre Opens

Good Morning FX Intraday traders

Not quite groundhog day this morning

OK - yes first scalp of the morning - on the EA - that bit is normal for this year

5 51 am - ? No

6 00 am - ? No

6 09 am ? No


BUT - outside my TW at 6 13 am ( unusual ) at 4999 - a scalp buy

Can it make over 5020 ? - dont know yet

EA dropped over 175 pips last night of Aussie dollar news - so not a normal morning on this pair

Here for a few hrs this morning - so normal stuff

1. Main FX pairs I trade updates - with levels etc

2. Lots of pretty pictures with nice squiggles etc ( lol)

3. The odd live calls in advance of moves ( remember I dont want to be a trade alert service )

4. Normally calls for over 20+ trades a day on anything from just 3 to 9 pairs - I dont always take every one - and I even take some I dont even comment on - all depends on so many variables and factors

5. ALL FX input welcome - so feel free to join in

Good Trading guys


F

 

[sun11]

Good Morning F,

Today I got one question for you. Just for benchmark purpose.

In last 12 months of your trading data, what is your average drawdown per day wise? Also what is the largest drawdown in a day in terms of pip count?

I know you never have losing days.

But say, you started trading you made some losses on 1st hour then 2-3 consecutive losses. In this way if your pip balance fall below zero i.e negative in terms of pips count how much is that average also in max?

Last day I had -34 in pip count, then I reduced it upto -4 pips. I hope you are getting what I am asking.

Thank you
Regards
Sun.

 

[Forexmospherian]

EU

5 58am was a scalp buy from 0858 and pullbacks staying above 0860 are still scalp buys atm

So far thats made only a 8 pips rise - whilst my EA trade as made 18 pips in half the time

Still not quite at 20 though on EA - so even thats slow

 

[Raja1977]

EU

5 58am was a scalp buy from 0858 and pullbacks staying above 0860 are still scalp buys atm

So far thats made only a 8 pips rise - whilst my EA trade as made 18 pips in half the time

Still not quite at 20 though on EA - so even thats slow

hi F

can i buy at 0860 EU.