Hi WD
First of all - I would agree with the previous comment from Erasmus with regards to the Fundamental side and the negative problems of the US Dollar in Presidential Election year.
With regards to the other factors that do have an effect on the EU prices - we have the TA - and I like you WD are more interested in what happening in the charts every day involving PA and of course manipulation - whether either form - ie legal by large players stop hunting both Bulls and Bears - and other forms of manipulations involving dark pools and even central governments.
Basically to me - It all make sense in the charts
I am more of an intraday trader then a swing or position / long term but the PA as made sense to me and I will explain it more in 3 main charts -
Monthly - 12hr - 6 hrs
First with the big stuff and the monthly - yes in a down trend as shown by the down trendline - but with a low last year that was followed by a HL at around the 1 500 area.
The 12 hrs breaks it down from the Low and Higher low and then on to a HL - all price action signals of an up trend
From December 2015 we started a turn and so far of the 6 weeks of 2016 its been in a up trend with HL's and HH's
If we then go down to the 6 hrs you can see it clearer . For me intraday I use a tick chart and most frames under 3 mins - simple because I want accurate entries with super tight stops to make several intraday trades with many making anything from a RR of 4 up to even 20 on some occasions based on stops from 3 to 7 pips.
If we go back to that high late year around 1700 since then we dropped to 500 ish - so a 1200 pip range
Many bears would not expect price to bounce up over 50% of range so say 600 pips and that makes around 1100.
Its important to remember that this is a very large Money game played by Governments - large Banks other loads of other commercial businesses - including large Car manufactures ( Porsche made more money on FX some years than they did selling their cars ) and large players play games when they know were all the money is based on stops etc
So there was large temptation to get price back over 1100 after spending so much time in the 750 to 1000 area and really the LH could be anything under 1700 next.
If we did go on after several pullbacks down to say 1050 or 1100 and try over both 1600 and 1700 - then we enter a different ballgame - and back to my monthly chart with another down TL
Today we have been up to 1338 area - many are expecting 1400 to 1500 and then if the big players think the dollar looks tp be improving and too many are buying the Euro - they might decide to take it all the way back to 600 area - ie back in down trend and keeping to LH's under 1700 and LL's under 800 and 700 - but still staying over 450 / 500 - so to carry on with the game again
Here's my charts
Monthly -
12 hrs -
6 hrs -
