A Master Class in FX Intraday Trading by F & Co

Status
Not open for further replies.
Got an haircut booked for 4 pm today so going to call it a day now

Will pop back around 5 pm or so

Its been a great week and I hope its been similar for all of you


Have a great weekend and take care


All the best


F
 
EA - after 11 am UK and US early session

EA

1 min chart after 1 00 pm

Notice cross over and under 5635 its bearish and a sell

BUT


Above 5600 is bullish and a buy


Who will win ??


202872d1445001088-master-class-fx-intraday-trading-f-co-ea-161015-4.png

2 31 pm EA

Need to see over 5640 now on EA otherwise will pull in mid 30s

Ideally we buy EA again at 5623 to 26 area

It still bullish above 25

EA

3 08 PM

I am sure Nick is smiling with regards to the EA

Now at 5675


Looks like the Bulls won then on the EA

30 mins after 11 00 am and then HH's and no LL's basically kept it rising 80 pips - the LRs just help with the PPND part

Will look at LiT'S area trades later on tonight or over weekend

Enjoy your break


Regards

F
 
In Basel airport for a later flight back to blighty......zzzzzz

How'd it go today gang ?

N
 
Hi F,

I would be interested in your thoughts on partials.
Yesterday I was in 2 trades and I have spent this morning trying to see how I could have been better.
I got very good entries and the trades ended up being nearly 100 pips. I however did not get them all.

Now to counter that I think I wrote already that one day I got 100 pips from a market that had a 60 pip range, so maybe I want too much.

The first trade I am questioning is EJ. I bought as per your method at 11.56 yesterday. Now I bailed way to soon as it was but that is hindsight. I guess I am looking for clues that could have kept me in.
What I think could have is that at each stage it surpassed on of the longer lr's and maybe that was the clue. Within that I know there were numerous 20 pip swings, which is higher than our targets on entering a scalp. So I know this is not a question with a definitive answer and it is a personal preference too. I would like to say I left a partial for 90 pips+ but how many 20+ pip swings do I endure and why?

I guess I am starting a conversation here rather than a do x when y occurs scenario. Like you I am constantly trying to get better and spend time reviewing what I have done in the last week in an effort to keep improving.

In my defence, in this trade I entered a short on EA at 13.21 and due to not trading EJ so much I was doubtful of how long the two pairs could run in opposite directions.

Anyway I wanted to share my dilemma here and maybe you and others can share their thoughts.

In the end I bail at 13.47

Cheers
 
Last edited:
In Basel airport for a later flight back to blighty......zzzzzz

How'd it go today gang ?

N

Morning N

I hope you got back OK last night - are you able to get a flight back to Bournemouth or Southampton rather than Heathrow and will this be your new regular Friday afternoon / evening trip ?

Friday was not as easy day as the rest of the week - maybe because of choppy price action and a lot of teasing / indecision stuff - but main job of exceeding my daily target was easily achieved.

I have been asked why don't I increase my daily target to say 80 pips or even more - as most days it easily achieved over a 4 -7 hr session. Well my answer is there will be the odd days not every week or month but certainly every 6 -8 weeks when I really struggle to even make my 50 pips . It might be down to a slow or bad start - or over 5 or more bad scalps - or even because I cannot get a full time session in and only trade for a few hours and then even with say 10 trades I might only be at 36 pips. It does happen - but so do days that within 90 mins and 5 trades I have made over 80+ pips - that's the unknown of what the market will do.

Talking of number of trades - I notice you are being challenged in another thread regarding your comment on more trades more money theory etc. Its another one like how long is a piece of string ? ie a very busy scalper might take 100 scalps get a 85% win record and make 150 pips - but then another trader takes just 9 trades and makes 250 pips all in the same session - but with some with RR of over 20 + rather than the scalpers winning RR's of less than 1 to 2.

I am a firm believer for retail FX trading - multi trading done efficiently will produce the best results . The question is - is that 15 trades a full session - or 22 or 35 or even more - but the idea of only doing 3 or 5 trades a day is a waste of time - because you will never be able to get a 80 -100% win rate continually and you will miss out on so many opportunities as well even 100 pip wins are not than good if your stop size was 50 pips - ie a RR of 2+ trade can be achieved in 10 mins - why wait 3 or 6 hrs for the same result ?

Anyway look forward to how that debate pans out

Enjoy your weekend in Blighty ;-)


Regards


F
 
Hi F,

I would be interested in your thoughts on partials.
Yesterday I was in 2 trades and I have spent this morning trying to see how I could have been better.
I got very good entries and the trades ended up being nearly 100 pips. I however did not get them all.

Now to counter that I think I wrote already that one day I got 100 pips from a market that had a 60 pip range, so maybe I want too much.

The first trade I am questioning is EJ. I bought as per your method at 11.56 yesterday. Now I bailed way to soon as it was but that is hindsight. I guess I am looking for clues that could have kept me in.
What I think could have is that at each stage it surpassed on of the longer lr's and maybe that was the clue. Within that I know there were numerous 20 pip swings, which is higher than our targets on entering a scalp. So I know this is not a question with a definitive answer and it is a personal preference too. I would like to say I left a partial for 90 pips+ but how many 20+ pip swings do I endure and why?

I guess I am starting a conversation here rather than a do x when y occurs scenario. Like you I am constantly trying to get better and spend time reviewing what I have done in the last week in an effort to keep improving.

In my defence, in this trade I entered a short on EA at 13.21 and due to not trading EJ so much I was doubtful of how long the two pairs could run in opposite directions.

Anyway I wanted to share my dilemma here and maybe you and others can share their thoughts.

In the end I bail at 13.47

Cheers

Hi Nick

OK good question

Pleased you know its not a simple black or white - yes/ no answer ;-)

I will try over next 30 mins or so explain how I generally look at it - as an overview - along with my own preferences and tips etc etc

It will be detailed - but even then I am sure I might miss some points out - so if I do and not answer your specifics - then please raise again

Enjoy your weekend


Regards


F
 
Hi Nick

OK good question

Pleased you know its not a simple black or white - yes/ no answer ;-)

I will try over next 30 mins or so explain how I generally look at it - as an overview - along with my own preferences and tips etc etc

It will be detailed - but even then I am sure I might miss some points out - so if I do and not answer your specifics - then please raise again

Enjoy your weekend


Regards


F

I know it will be detailed and that is why I posted I am sure I will get a few things to consider and I also know there is not necessarily a perfect answer.

Thanks in advance.
 
Hi Nick

First the 11 56 am EJ buy yesterday

It was at a low around 135 00

Basically after it had gone over 30+ mins with no breach of low - that said - a change might be on - time rules

After 1 hr with no breach of the low and a HH from in the first 30 mins - then even more favourable

So - and I know this is dead easy in hindsight - but believe me - it can be all done in real life trading conditions once you know what you are looking for.

As normal - we are never going to be 100% correct - but if you had left a partial stake on - preferably under 50% - it could be 20 - 25 -30 - 40% depending on your own spec - at entry for a start and then after 30+ mins say in 2 -3 pips - you could have switched off and just checked it every 30- 60 mins knowing what ever happened - you were going to end up with profit of it.

In fact on the first scalp buy trade - lets say you made 12 pips on 70% stake off a 5 pip stop risk

In theory that 30% stake you left on could have been left with the stop still 5 pips under entry - simply because the 70% profit you made on 12 pips easily covers the 5 pips loss at 30% - ie you still have a net winning trade if that had happened

I prefer to get my partial stops in profit asap - but sometimes it does go against me - and I am stopped out only to see it go my way 4 pips later

In this EJ case - 90 pips at say 25% stake is approximately the same as a 22+ pip scalp from say 5 pips ( a really good one) - at 40% stake then even 35 pips from a scalp ( extremely good scalp )

But if you had the time - you would have added scalp buys on the way up - and repeated the exercise - so maybe at on point you could have say after 2 21 / 2 30pm - a 100% scalp stake on along with 2 or 3 partials - each at 25% or more - so in theory a lot larger stake - but really not at extra risk simply because you are using your profits already in the trade as risk - rather than taking on additional risk

After 2 30 pm as well on the EJ yesterday you did then have a lot more LRs under price - then suggesting it might try and carry on higher

In fact it carried on trying up for over 5 hrs.

Some days - you might carry out this exercise ( still a form of PPNDing if scalping both ways as well )on just one or two pairs.

On the EA for example you could have 2 partial 25% stake on both in profits of over 50 pips and then scalp against them at 100% stake on pullbacks of just 10 -25 pips - and you actually gain more - but without having to pay extra spreads coming out the trades and entering the longer trend again later.

There are many variables to take into consideration though

1. Ideally you want the partials on early in the day - to take benefit of the days moves - but dont let that stop you leaving 30% on a last scalp of the day if you think a change is going to take place.

2. If its a good PA busy day - you might want to have partials stake trades on 4+ pairs - but if its a slow bad PA day then it might be easier to take 100% stake off all trades and take the profit you get.

3. Its maybe only 30% of all winning scalps that go on to make larger moves. On the 70% winning scalps you lose out on with extra pips off 30% you have to monitor if its been worth while. Out the 30% that go on - you only need a 1 or 2 making 100 - 200+ pips and it soon changes the whole equation of missing out say 7 pips at 30% on 7 trades that did not work.

4. I know I could do better on my swing partial stake trades - but have maybe placed preference on more scalping - simply because I am more experienced and better at scalping than fortune telling longer term swings. Maybe that might change more in the next year as my LiTs areas have helped me a lot recently

More to follow on this subject later


Regards


F
 
^ Thanks

I guess one thing I am concentrated on a profitable scalp first and then hate giving back pips and maybe find it easier to go find another 8-10 scalp than manage the trade in this example. I just find the 20 pip swings within a larger move too many to risk. As 20 pips on 30% partial is 6 on a full trade and I already paid commission so it is like a full trade risk.

I will keep looking at it and go over more trades. In my defence I am not counting scalps where i got my 10-12 pips and sold at the best point and pat myself on the back. On Dax for example when I am actively scalping I will invariably have sold the high or bought the low and it takes a while to realise what I have and then manage it.

Even when we make good money we still can learn and improve to try and get better.
 
Morning N

I hope you got back OK last night - are you able to get a flight back to Bournemouth or Southampton rather than Heathrow and will this be your new regular Friday afternoon / evening trip ?

Friday was not as easy day as the rest of the week - maybe because of choppy price action and a lot of teasing / indecision stuff - but main job of exceeding my daily target was easily achieved.

I have been asked why don't I increase my daily target to say 80 pips or even more - as most days it easily achieved over a 4 -7 hr session. Well my answer is there will be the odd days not every week or month but certainly every 6 -8 weeks when I really struggle to even make my 50 pips . It might be down to a slow or bad start - or over 5 or more bad scalps - or even because I cannot get a full time session in and only trade for a few hours and then even with say 10 trades I might only be at 36 pips. It does happen - but so do days that within 90 mins and 5 trades I have made over 80+ pips - that's the unknown of what the market will do.

Talking of number of trades - I notice you are being challenged in another thread regarding your comment on more trades more money theory etc. Its another one like how long is a piece of string ? ie a very busy scalper might take 100 scalps get a 85% win record and make 150 pips - but then another trader takes just 9 trades and makes 250 pips all in the same session - but with some with RR of over 20 + rather than the scalpers winning RR's of less than 1 to 2.

I am a firm believer for retail FX trading - multi trading done efficiently will produce the best results . The question is - is that 15 trades a full session - or 22 or 35 or even more - but the idea of only doing 3 or 5 trades a day is a waste of time - because you will never be able to get a 80 -100% win rate continually and you will miss out on so many opportunities as well even 100 pip wins are not than good if your stop size was 50 pips - ie a RR of 2+ trade can be achieved in 10 mins - why wait 3 or 6 hrs for the same result ?

Anyway look forward to how that debate pans out

Enjoy your weekend in Blighty ;-)


Regards


F


the more trade volume = more money is unchallengable in my opinion

I also see no reason why someone trading a 1hr tf or higher will achieve a significantly better % success rate over time than a damn good 1 min trader..........the excuse is that the higher TF allows more scope for stop positioning ......but that still doesn't offset the woeful returns on lower stakes per pips ........and overall $ per day earnings........ZZZZZZZZZZZZ

the joke is we would need to wait bloody years to prove it due to obtaining decent sample size on higher TF's ..........when i was starting in scalping I was hitting 2-300 trades a day (yes excessive)..........Christ to do the same sample on a 1 hour I would be weeks ..........hahahahahaha

N
 
Last edited:
What time frame do you trade on 1 min or 1 hr.New to this thread but find the traders have a great knowledge.
 
Scalping v Day Swing trades

the more trade volume = more money is unchallengable in my opinion

I also see no reason why someone trading a 1hr tf or higher will achieve a significantly better % success rate over time than a damn good 1 min trader..........the excuse is that the higher TF allows more scope for stop positioning ......but that still doesn't offset the woeful returns on lower stakes per pips ........and overall $ per day earnings........ZZZZZZZZZZZZ

the joke is we would need to wait bloody years to prove it due to obtaining decent sample size on higher TF's ..........when i was starting in scalping I was hitting 2-300 trades a day (yes excessive)..........Christ to do the same sample on a 1 hour I would be weeks ..........hahahahahaha

N

Morning N

Re your highlighted comment.

I know you are an accountant so understand numbers - even though we both know you can do anything with numbers to prove or disprove certain info.

Not many 1 hr or 4 hr traders work on 3 to 7 pip stops - and that's what many retail FX traders fail to see.

Ideally you want low risk - high return ( RR ratios) in the shortest time possible - so that you can add you new profit to your capital to in theory then increase your stake size on the next 5 -10 trades.

So for me - the perfect scalp on say the EU with rather than say a 0 4 pip spread and commission - lets say a flat 1 pip spread is a scalp with a 3 pip stop that goes on to make 10 + pips - All within 10 mins ideally :)

In my own case - I don't use 2% or even 1% stake size on my main capital accounts to scalp but lets say on a $5 or $10k normal fairly experienced retail FX trader capital account he is prepared to use up to 2% stake size max on up to 3 simultaneous trades.

So 0 6 % stake per scalp - to keep it easy on $1000 that's just $6 to play with

On a 3 pip stop thats - $2 a pip - so on a 10 pips successful result - he makes $20.

So lets look at over the course of a full day session - he makes 30 scalps ( just averaging 4 per hr - so nothing silly )

His win ratio is only 70% - which is low for a scalper - so on 30 trades - 21 winners and 9 losses.

He's not going to make 10 + pips every winning scalp - but without being aggressive out of 21 winners - he should have at least 4 make over 10 pips - then 10 only make 5 pips and lets say is other winners only make 3 pip.

Total pip count off winners is approx 120 pips ( lowest 110 - maybe up to 140 )

Losses - 9 at 3 pips each plus slippage even - so say 30 pips

Net pippage 120 -30 = 90 pips at $2 a pip = $180 - off a $1000 account - so 18% gain in a day - which i would say is too high and certainly not sustainable every day

The experienced day trader with a $10k account using a 1 hr + time frame - will not be using 3 pip stops on a EU pair - even with only a 1 pip spread total cost.

I would say he would use 10 pips minimum - and normally anything from 15 to 25 pips looking for a RR of 3.

On a 10 pip stop using the same criteria as the scalper - 0.6% stake size - the $6 over 10 pip stop is $0 6 per pip. On 20 pip stop it would be only $0 3 per pip

OK same win ratio 70% - which is high for a day swing trader as far as I am concerned - but for equality on scalper.

So the swing trader manages to take 5 trades in a day off a 1 hr + time frame - ( High for a swing trader )

70% win rate - so lets say 3 winners and only 1 loss and 1 B/E ( trying to be supportive of swing trader )

3 winners make over 35 pips+ each - so lets say 110 pips again and the loss is 10 pips and the B/E is 0 pip - net result 100 pip gain

At $0 6 per pip - thats next result off 100 pips of $60

The swing trader is happy - he's made 100 pips net and beat the scalper ( unusual )

Also

The swing trader is happy and made a net result of $60


The scalper has only made 90 pips net - disappointed as swing trader made 100 pips

However - all we want is the money gain - that's the KEY

The scalper is very happy because he made a net result of $180 - 3 times that of the swing traders $60

Now swing traders - learn to scalp


I will say though N - I think 100 + scalps a day is too excessive - personally for me between 15 and 40 max a full day - and myself being old and in my own little comfort zone - 10 to 20 a day is enough to ensure I get a positive return - if not always over my 50 pip daily target

Is that how you see it ?


Regards

F
 
Last edited:
What time frame do you trade on 1 min or 1 hr.New to this thread but find the traders have a great knowledge.

Hi Liver

Every trade I personally take starts as a scalp either from a tick or 1 min time frame

I do look at the 1 hr time frame - I even look at the weekly / monthly and even quarterly charts when available - but I am only a "fortune teller" when I am comfortable with my stop in profit - otherwise all my scalps are only based on high probability forecasts of then next 5 to 30 mins

I have suggested all members who are interested in intraday FX should have a minimum 12 -18 months of FX trading experience behind them - before trying to follow my method over the required 4 to max 8 months. That's because its complex ( easy when you get used to it) and so different to 95% of all FX trading methods many try

All the best for next weeks trading


Regards


F
 
Last edited:
FX Intraday Trading this next week

I have mentioned I am looking at changing the format slightly - hopefully improve the information on how i trade and make the method easier to follow.

I have noticed many traders are more worried about over trading - rather than working with a method that gives them more "Opportunities".

For example - Bob Volman's scalping methods seem very low numbers - ie his method does not provide 20 or 50 possible a scalps a full session - so for me something is wrong there

As I have said numerous times from day 1 on this forum - I trade on average 10 to 20 times a day ( but not counting multi stakes ). Its based on an average 4 to 7 hrs over say a 10 hr full session

To assist followers to understand I have a basic template

202962d1445200556-master-class-fx-intraday-trading-f-co-time-window-template-oct-15.png


I have updated it to cover 8 FX pairs. I rarely scalp or leave partials on all 8 - but many days cover 3 to 5 pairs - after some basic cherry picking - ie based on PA and time of session and news releases etc

I have approx 21 time windows - that's really 63 opportunities per pair - so theoretically on 4 pairs - 252 scalps if i could scalp simultaneously on 4 pairs.

However - I rarely scalp more than 2 pairs simultaneously and also generally only cover 9 to 14 time windows over the full day ( those marked in red )

So one scalp per TW - equals 9 -14 scalps - and on 2 pairs - 18 - 28 scalps per day. The fact that I don't scalp every TW - but sometimes scalp 3 times in one TW - 9 mins to hr - 1 min past hr and 9 mins past hr on a busy frame change period.

My preference on pairs is nowadays - 1 - EA - 2 EJ - 3 GU - 4 EU - 5 UCad - 6 UJ - 7 AU - 8 UChf

The first 3 are generally big movers - the bottom 3 - slower - BUT ideal for learning and improving your skill level as the EA and GU can be sometimes a bit quick. I have missed out the GJ - purely because of spread for most traders - but once experienced its another pair to be on the list along with the GA.

I am looking at coming up with a LiTs Template as well - based on anything from last 12 hrs pre EO using the 3 Longest LRs as the identifying the important session bias area

I can then just copy them out every morning

Not trading tonight - but see you in the morning

Regards


F
 

Attachments

  • Time Window Template Oct 15.png
    Time Window Template Oct 15.png
    23.4 KB · Views: 523
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top