journal of trader formally known as wasp

Time for something to hopefully apply the discipline I so sorely need to become consistent.

I have a very basic simple system/method which I intend on making automated if I can ever prove it works well enough with real money and in real time. Its been back and forward tested in demo and it works fine. Since applying real money to the equation things have not been so smooth.

Its not the methods, its the discipline to stick to the rules.

Kiss

Very simple rules.

Trading cable intraday.

Start at 7am GMT and finish at 8pm unless an opposing signal appears after 3:30pm. Last entry is 3:30pm to allow for US news, thereafter its just a case of running the position till a reversal indication or till 8pm rolls around.

Try to limit trades to a maximum of 4 per day and no targets, just trying to max each trade. Sometimes this means watching 20-30 pips reverse to a loss but other times it will be 150 pips which, through every other method tried, works out best in the long run for me.

My hope with this journal is to help me stop messing up all time and become more disciplined in keeping to the same rules all the time. hopefully. My biggest current problem is changing my exit stratagy all the time so I catch the bad trades and exit all the good ones too early. I'd rather have the good runs and watch 20/30 vanish so thats the exit strat here on in.

Not again

Examples of the last three days which I missed good profits because of bad discipline...

210 pips missed due to fear mostly and a severe lack of discipline to some simple rules.




Fig1. the stop was moved upon the second candle during the pause before the drop. The stop was taken out on the sole blue candle.

Fig 2. the stop was actually placed just before 5pm thinking this would be a good time and the market would be calming down.

Interested in comments/suggestions?

please do...

First, congratulations for putting the pedal to the metal. Application is not only more fun than theory and philosophy, but it also makes more money (if you do it right).

Second, you don't say exactly what your system is or what your rules are, so I can't comment on whether or not you're following it/them. So . . .

Third, assuming you're entering where you're supposed to, consider covering part of your trade at that point where your stomach starts to knot itself, putting the remainder of your trade at the breakeven (BE) point. That way, no matter what, you can't lose. Then, if there's a continuation (which occurred with your first two charts), you can re-enter. Granted this all sounds fine in hindsight, but if you know what to look for, and you're able to recognize it in real time, this simple tweak should enable you to turn the corner. Or at least angle in that direction.

Db

dbphoenix said:

First, congratulations for putting the pedal to the metal. Application is not only more fun than theory and philosophy, but it also makes more money (if you do it right).

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Totally agree there!

dbphoenix said:

Second, you don't say exactly what your system is or what your rules are, so I can't comment on whether or not you're following it/them. So . . .

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That doesn't really matter . Lets just say I follow my system rules fine (to a point). Its not really the reason behind the journal as thats not causing the problems its the fear/greed profit taking point thats at stake. Nailing that is where the discipline issue comes in.

dbphoenix said:

Third, assuming you're entering where you're supposed to, consider covering part of your trade at that point where your stomach starts to knot itself, putting the remainder of your trade at the breakeven (BE) point. That way, no matter what, you can't lose. Then, if there's a continuation (which occurred with your first two charts), you can re-enter. Granted this all sounds fine in hindsight, but if you know what to look for, and you're able to recognize it in real time, this simple tweak should enable you to turn the corner. Or at least angle in that direction.

Db

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I think its one of the best options I have at the moment. I already move my stop to breakeven after a certain time anyway so its not so much losing but if I have taken a loss earlier in the day, I'm then thinking if I can make the most out of this trade, at least I profit today... I'm not so sure about re-entering just yet, but leaving part of the position open does sound feasible.

When I have had a dull/bad/unprofitable day to the point of this last trade, I am so desperate to make a profit from it and end the day up, I then move the stops too tight and hey presto... I'm out without giving it enough room, then the more room I give still allowinga profit, if it takes me out I'm gutted I missed some and then even more gutted if it then reveses again and continues.

The real stupid part is in testing, I don't think about daily P+L, I just do it and look at the end of the month as not every day makes X but some days cover three so it works nicely at the end but the emotions tied in when its actually in real time with money mess with my discipline to stick to the rules.

Your specific system/rules may not matter. However, you may find that if you're not getting what you want out of your trading, your system/rules will have to be revisited. The fact that hope/greed/fear are problematic suggests that you're not as confident in your system as you should be.

It's possible that you expect/fear/hope for some outcome or other from a given trade. While focusing on the prediction or expectation of an outcome takes up most or all of the time of quite a few traders, that focus will more likely tie you in knots when you're faced with having to make decisions in real time than it will help you in reaching whatever your goal might be.

Therefore, I suggest that you focus instead on what's happening in front of you rather than on what you hope or fear there will be. You have total control over what happens to you in the present. You have no control over what happens in the future.

Any chance you could post some longer-term charts? Days? Weeks? Months?

Just an overview of the market in different timeframes or with my settings on each day? (charts)

I see what your saying but I don't think its my rules as such, more just my fear of losing profit. Look at the 3 charts posted. Based purely on the indicators alone none say exit and my overall system doesn't say to reverse at any point, their just purely in periods of ST consolidation before continuation, and, as per my rules, all trades should then be run till 8pm if no reversal shows.

do you use a stop when entering a trade ?

if so how many pips?

I use a 20 pip stop and try to move it to break even when the price moves past a decent S/R level or a pivot.

why 20 pips?

Through testing and R:R.

In back and forward testing, only about 1 in 10 get stopped out prematurely before continuing on, if that. Also, I would rather take the small loss and wait for a new signal. It works well in excel for my leverage and money mangement plan.

Plus of course, I don't have your pockets :cheesy:

wasp said:

Just an overview of the market in different timeframes or with my settings on each day? (charts)

I see what your saying but I don't think its my rules as such, more just my fear of losing profit. Look at the 3 charts posted. Based purely on the indicators alone none say exit and my overall system doesn't say to reverse at any point, their just purely in periods of ST consolidation before continuation, and, as per my rules, all trades should then be run till 8pm if no reversal shows.

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Your particular market in expansions of the same timeframe, i.e., from today back a week, from today back several weeks, from today back several months (I've looked at chrisw's charts in the cable pattern thread, but I'd like to see what you're looking at as well). Just three charts.

As to the fear, there's no point in my saying that you shouldn't be afraid if you're confident in your system. Fact is, you're afraid. So take it from there.

You say you backtested and forward tested your system in "demo". What exactly do you mean by "demo"? How did you conduct your backtest? Your forward test? (And we're not making a commitment to each other; you can stop whenever you like.)

Backtest were done via applying my criteria to the chart and then going back as far as I could with metatrader then running through the days and testing it as I would have traded it. Then going back through actually looking at the day as a whole and fine tuning it. Forward tests were done in capital spreads demo account for four months trading the plan as it should have been done.

Incidentally, in my ongoing endeveour to study price I have spent alot of time in chrisw's thread but it never seems to work as well. He doesn't seem available for comment but thats by the by.

Charts attatched.

a, b and c don't show what I see on a daily basis as the timeframe is different but d is the max in my timeframe showing what I'd see for a couple of weeks.

Try to limit trades to a maximum of 4 per day and no targets, just trying to max each trade

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If I understand the above each trade has no target

no they don't.

Okies I may be wrong here but it seems you have done back testing with various levels of stop loss to get an acceptable stop but no back testing with various profit levels in order to maximise your system

I see your point and I realise what I say next is contradictory but each day is unique. Yes my entries can be 90% profitable without hitting a 20 pip stop but profit targets are different.

I can't actually decifer a solid reason for maximizing profits. I don't want to use a set amount as some days it'll miss it by a few and reverse and other days it will rocket through it and I'll be stood watching, gutted. Waiting for an opposing signal can sometimes mean missing out but over the last 3 days, waiting for a reversal or 8pm for afternoon trades would have been perfect. Another option has been trailing just behind after breaking through pivot levels and another using certain times of times due to different countries sessions starting and finishing.

The other option of course is price action predictions, the channels and trendlines, but they leave to much room for error and sods law in my experience so far. As Peto just pointed out in 'live cable' thread, your predctions are amazing but your how and why is beyond me!

Open to suggestions here!

wasp said:

Backtest were done via applying my criteria to the chart and then going back as far as I could with metatrader then running through the days and testing it as I would have traded it. Then going back through actually looking at the day as a whole and fine tuning it. Forward tests were done in capital spreads demo account for four months trading the plan as it should have been done.

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Thanks for the charts. I see no reason why what you want to do shouldn't work. And if you have a 90% win rate, there's even less than no reason why what you want to do shouldn't work. Therefore, if fear continues to be an issue, then you have reason or reasons to distrust your system.

However, even if I knew your rules, it would be up to you to fix the problem. So, do you record somewhere exactly why you're entering a trade either just before or at the time you enter it? Do you record the exact conditions for staying in the trade? scaling out of the trade? exiting the trade entirely? reversing your position? If not, then I suggest that you begin doing all of this. Otherwise, you are extremely vulnerable to trading by feeling, and that clearly is not working for you. If you are doing all of this, then move on to part B: if the trade works, write down exactly what you did to bring that about; if it doesn't work, write down exactly what you did to bring that about; if it works but you violated your rules and bailed, write down exactly what was going through your mind at the time you chickened out.

You may, if you like, talk about all of this aloud into a digital voice recorder, esp if you have a lot to write down. But if you don't record it in some way, either orally or in writing, you will likely find yourself in a kind of free-floating doubt/anxiety state in which you are unable to find your footing. You can't fix anything until you know exactly what it is that needs fixing.