Quantt’s betting journal

[Quantt]

OK here is my pivot and predictions for today 20171217

The following 2 games will finish with more than 4.5 total number of goals in the mach for 0.75R which I probably wouldn't take if I was trading systematic, but since I am still discretionary will take the gamble (pun intended

St Louis vs Winnipeg - odds 1.35
Florida vs Vegas baby - odds 1.30

 

[DT]

I am looking for an easy way to identify winners and losers... I don’t want to turn this into another job spending my time doing constant research...

successful betting is rarely about picking winners it is about finding value

for example, supposing in a horse race there is a favourite the bookies have priced at
say 3/2 and your model predicts the chance that horse wins is 0.5

you and the bookies agree it is the favourite to win but you'd lose in the long run if you made bets like this

If the whole thing works this year, maybe I’ll start to look into getting back data and try to quantify a more robust automated strategy that can be back tested easily with different variables, apply proper Kelly and so on...

that's were you should be starting from IMO

This is my attempt of a discretionary trading via NHL sports betting with same concepts of risk/reward and to put in use a knowledge that I am getting by osmosis from the radio

you're not really "trading" per say - usually people who describe themselves as trading in the context of sports betting are opening and closing positions prior to the event taking place - the actual result of the event meaning little to them, they just 'trade' the movement in prices prior to the event - they generally use betting exchanges

The odds where actually better by 1R last night, so maybe I have to bet one day in advance

perhaps... though depending on the bookie this is where you can get yourself banned quite easily

as per my previous comment before about successful betting not necessarily being about finding winners but about finding value you can quite often find bookies with prices that would give you a positive expected value bet... bookies have to cover a whole load of events and will continually adjust prices as and when more information and bets come in. Some venues attract sharp punters (betting exchanges and bookies such as pinnacle.com/) - if you find a better price at a bookie that is significantly different from the prices at an exchange or at pinnacle then, without even needing to have created your own handicapping system/model, it would be quite likely that that price is offering you value. The problem is that even the square bookies will move their prices and if they spot a punter who has constantly picked them off when they've posted bad lines then they'll quite quickly ban you or severely limit your account to rather comical amounts. (they are paranoid about arbitragers and while technically you could simply arb them at an exchange when they post bad lines you're better off in the long run not hedging).


You mention you're betting against the government? Is there some monopoly on sports betting over there? If so I'd be a bit cautious - it is unlikely that a state owned bookie with a monopoly is going to offer you decent prices. I'd explore betting at offshore sites etc..

 

[Quantt]

You mention you're betting against the government? Is there some monopoly on sports betting over there? If so I'd be a bit cautious - it is unlikely that a state owned bookie with a monopoly is going to offer you decent prices. I'd explore betting at offshore sites etc..

Hi DT and thanks for getting the time to give very good points and advises...

For me personally, (I don't actually like to gamble), this is meant for a distraction from the terrible season my team is having and I am actually making money by not going to the games and spending hundreds of dollars on overpriced tickets and beer...

To answer your question, yes, the gambling, the liquor (and soon, July 1st the recreational marijuana) are exclusively sold by the government (with few exceptions in the Indian reserves for example)

 

[Quantt]

Bets for 2017128 (R2.31)

New Jersey to win at Anaheim with odds 1.65
San Jose to win at Edmonton with odds 1.95

 

[Quantt]

A loss last night and the bets for 20171219 (R2.05)

Minnesota to win vs Ottawa with odds 1.85
Boston to win vs Buffalo with odds 1.65

 

[Quantt]

OK, I made a mistake, somehow I did shift the data with 1 day getting wrong results, so bottom line, I cannot predict who is going to win
I have to go back to my second strategy: over/under
So for tonight 20171219 the real pick is that the following 2 games will have more than 4.5 total number of goals in each mach:

Minnesota @ Ottawa
Boston @ Buffalo

the R is only 0.8, so I have to watch if more of the upcoming games are with such a low odds, I'll have to abandon this one as well...

 

[Nowler]

You watch Darts?
The World Darts Championship is on at the moment. Maybe you could base a system on that?

I like just straight up watching, getting a feel for form and betting on first 180, next 180, and also over/under 180's. I got some rhythm last year, so looking forward to round 2 (when I really start to watch).

 

[Quantt]

You watch Darts?
The World Darts Championship is on at the moment. Maybe you could base a system on that?

I like just straight up watching, getting a feel for form and betting on first 180, next 180, and also over/under 180's. I got some rhythm last year, so looking forward to round 2 (when I really start to watch).

I have no idea about the rules and I don’t mind throwing a few in a bar, but I rather watch paint dry

 

[brewski1984]

You watch Darts?
The World Darts Championship is on at the moment. Maybe you could base a system on that?

I like just straight up watching, getting a feel for form and betting on first 180, next 180, and also over/under 180's. I got some rhythm last year, so looking forward to round 2 (when I really start to watch).

I'm cheering on Keegan Brown great result for him the other day, he lives on the Isle of Wight same as me

I have no idea about the rules and I don’t mind throwing a few in a bar, but I rather watch paint dry

You're right, I love playing the game but watching it is actually quite boring!

 

[Nowler]

Yeah I understand. I get pretty bored watch a lot of it.

Keegan Brown... That's the guy in the pink shirt who beat Wade the other day? A few names gone out already...Odds potential is higher.

I bet there'll be a 9 darter this year

 

[brewski1984]

Yeah I understand. I get pretty bored watch a lot of it.

Keegan Brown... That's the guy in the pink shirt who beat Wade the other day? A few names gone out already...Odds potential is higher.

I bet there'll be a 9 darter this year

Yeah he’s one to watch out for

I was once 7 out of 9 for a 9 darter, missed the T19 to set up the D12 I was gutted!

 

[Quantt]

As the beginner's luck would have it, I won on the wrong bet and missed the proper one...
No good bets for tonight...

 

[Nowler]

I was once 7 out of 9 for a 9 darter, missed the T19 to set up the D12 I was gutted!

Nooooooo!
I'm gutted for you!
I think the most I ever got back to back was 180 and then 140 :whistling

As the beginner's luck would have it, I won on the wrong bet and missed the proper one...
No good bets for tonight...

Who's your team mate?
You have skillfully danced around it throughout the thread, only referring to them as "my team"

 

[Quantt]

Who's your team mate?
You have skillfully danced around it throughout the thread, only referring to them as "my team"

Let's just say my team have the BIGGEST IDIOT as a manager and leave it at that, because I cannot take it anymore...

 

[Nowler]

Let's just say my team have the BIGGEST IDIOT as a manager and leave it at that, because I cannot take it anymore...

Could be worse...
This could be your manager..

:clap:

 

[Quantt]

Could be worse...
This could be your manager..

:clap:

You guys have it good in soccer, the Coach sets the tone the strategy and tells the front office what kind of players he needs, even sets the tone for the young players development etc... Like Sir Alex for example

Here the General Manager (THE IDIOT) is responsible for all that and he trades away all the good players and gives the Coach a bunch of useless, but "character" players signed with huge contracts and the coach doesn't know what to do with them...

Enter the Owner of the team, another IDIOT who supports the GM and the result is not only a bad team, but bleak future, because of lack of prospects and development...

I swear, one day, if I start a hedge fund is going to be for the only purpose to make 2Billion dollars to buy the club

 

[Nowler]

You guys have it good in soccer, the Coach sets the tone the strategy and tells the front office what kind of players he needs, even sets the tone for the young players development etc... Like Sir Alex for example

Here the General Manager (THE IDIOT) is responsible for all that and he trades away all the good players and gives the Coach a bunch of useless, but "character" players signed with huge contracts and the coach doesn't know what to do with them...

Enter the Owner of the team, another IDIOT who supports the GM and the result is not only a bad team, but bleak future, because of lack of prospects and development...

I swear, one day, if I start a hedge fund is going to be for the only purpose to make 2Billion dollars to buy the club

Wow...what a headache!
I wouldn't be able to work like that... If I was the coach then I would be the one setting the tone and the rest follow (or chairman says what's financially practical). Otherwise i'd be out the door.

Are all/most of the teams managed like this?

 

[Quantt]

Wow...what a headache!
I wouldn't be able to work like that... If I was the coach then I would be the one setting the tone and the rest follow (or chairman says what's financially practical). Otherwise i'd be out the door.

Are all/most of the teams managed like this?

Yes Sir, all team are managed like that + there is a salary cap of about 80mil per team + the players contracts are guaranteed and have to be transferred, e.g. if one guy has 8 years 8 mil /year salary and he is traded (swapped for other players)to another team, he'll have the same term/salary...

American sports are really weird...

 

[Nowler]

Yikes!

Interesting...

 

[Dowser]

Is there much money in Canadian sports or does a lot of the talent drain south?