Do you think markets are Random Walks?
Do you think markets are Random Walks?
arabianights
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Irrelevant to my question.
Then ask a different question.
arabianights
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arabianights
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removed post as was a reply to a scallywag
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sighthound
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If you ask me it's a ball and chalk up the frog and toad.
barjon
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ok out most of tomorrow (today 😴) so here's the next segment some time later.
Come on guys, the trading floor's screaming for advice now - they've almost come to blows and the head honcho has said he'll live with your recommendation.
jon
ps: if you've been paying attention you'll know where we've come from but if you want a quick peek at the earlier two they are here http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-analysis/99998-wot-revisited-2.html#post1200554
Come on guys, the trading floor's screaming for advice now - they've almost come to blows and the head honcho has said he'll live with your recommendation.
jon
ps: if you've been paying attention you'll know where we've come from but if you want a quick peek at the earlier two they are here http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-analysis/99998-wot-revisited-2.html#post1200554
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barjon
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🙁 left them to their own devices, eh.
In this bit of fun I had tried to draw the distinction between "prediction" and trading.
Trading is not about prediction, it is about finding opportunity. Whilst it is true that many traders will find their opportunity via reading the runes of the past price action, most fight shy of prediction (or divination as arabian would have it 🙂) and take the market as it comes. In fact, I wouldn't mind betting that if you could see in the minds of really good traders like Rathcoole and arabian who've contributed to this thread you'd see numbers rather than charts.
Anyway, for completeness, here's the final chapter.
good trading
jon
In this bit of fun I had tried to draw the distinction between "prediction" and trading.
Trading is not about prediction, it is about finding opportunity. Whilst it is true that many traders will find their opportunity via reading the runes of the past price action, most fight shy of prediction (or divination as arabian would have it 🙂) and take the market as it comes. In fact, I wouldn't mind betting that if you could see in the minds of really good traders like Rathcoole and arabian who've contributed to this thread you'd see numbers rather than charts.
Anyway, for completeness, here's the final chapter.
good trading
jon
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scose-no-doubt
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I would have started to close out as as price moved up and away from that gap. I would definitely missed that second gap up.
Finding opportunity for what, Jon? Buying because the price is cheap, or selling because it is dear? There has to be a certain amount of prediction on the trader's part to come to those conclusions and it seems to me to be an assessment of
opportunity and probability more than anything else. However, get the probability wrong and the whole plan is up the creek.
Joules MM1
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.......another one, please, jon
barjon
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split
Finding the opportunity to trade at a point where the assumption - not prediction - you make in entering the trade is proved one way or the other pretty quickly. Rathy's bracket trade, for example, makes no prediction. It does, however, carry the assumption that price will continue if it breaks one of those levels - if it does, he will manage his profit and if it doesn't, he'll cut out for a small loss.
Perhaps the difference between "prediction" and "assumption" is merely semantics, but I see a difference.
jon
ccclarette658
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What do you think SOCRATES and mr.marcus would think if they saw your post...
They showed you something really special. Reviving the wot threads only to post these intellectually dishonest generalities is disrespectful to true traders, and especially those who have given of themselves to help others on this site - all for free!
To say trading is not about prediction is nonsense, sorry. It all sounds good: "finding opportunity", "taking the market as it comes". However it is wrong, and only sounds good to those who know no better.
I should learn to leave well enough alone with this place. SOCRATES wouldn't come back even if begged, and mr.marcus appears to have left also...I need to be very careful with my own reasons for popping up here, as I understand it will likely do no good. They are wiser than I am as they do not speak to you. I succumb from time to time.
My point to you Jon (and especially to Jon the Moderator)... after what you have had the benefit of being shown...could you look Mr Socco and Mr Marcus in the eye and say that prediction is nonsense and Rathcoole / Arabiannights are the really good traders?
I have just looked at the profile of Arabianights - he join in late 2007 and his first post said he is starting first trading job. You want to stack a three year newbie, and an employee to boot, against the multiple decades of experience earned by each of Mr Socco and Mr Marcus?
Please do look to your deeds Jon...what are you contributing, what are you leaving behind yourself...are you harming rather than helping, even inadvertently? Do you know? How?
I'll leave you all with Matthew 15:10-14.
Waterfield
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Hi bull 🙂
Lightning McQueen
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can't be! it's a coherently constructed post for starters - far too complex.
shame though, bit of a thread killer and post content not nice at all really 👎
barjon
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ccc
Well, yes. I know socco to be a fine trader - he put a string of over 50 winning trades together without a backward step when last I was talking with him - but I'm not sure he would describe it as "prediction". More "knowing" I think because of his experience and knowledge of how the market operates - although I suppose you could class that as prediction.
In my experience Mr Marcus is exceptional. I don't know much about his trading, but you are right to point to his almost phenomenal predictive skill. And, yes, his trading must be based on that.
So far as the others are concerned, I know arabian to be a solid trader and I don't doubt rathcoole even though I have no first hand knowledge about his trading.
As for harming or helping, perhaps I should have littered my posts with "in my opinion" for it is just that.
cheers
jon
There is a difference but in the manner in which the word was used here, there wasn't enough to be worth debating. My real issue was, to use a third word, the expectancy that the price would rise or fall away from the entry price, thus creating an opportunity to enter the trade successfully. Without that belief no opportunity can be created.
However, I am just making a point and do not want to pursue it any further, if no-one else does.
Mr Marcus made that series an insult to a person's intelligence.
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ouch,would have to disagree with that one, lets just get back to some charts shall we...
