wot happened next? No:5

[barjon]

A slight variation this time.

You've been holding a long position from the black line and you are a bit nervous with the penultimate shooting star type candle and have decided to look for an exit just below its low if it goes that way the next day. Unfortunately you get no chance with the gap opening and like a good numpty you can't bring yourself to bite the bullet and flee so you watch the candle develop with some relief that it closes well off its low.

So wot happened next and how do you plan to manage your position from here?

good trading

jon

 

[charliechan]

cant really say without knowing the intraday chart and seeing if the volume was on the down side or upside, but for the sake of having my 2 cents.......

id expect a range to develop from here. the tail on the gap bar looks like a temp. low has been formed, so id get out if price went any lower. i may base that on intraday srp's (significant reference points) if available. id now be looking to take the rest of my profit had i already not taken some.

if price went above the high then things will be looking very good - but that may not happen for a while. do i want to keep my money tied up that long when there are better opportunities around? who knows.

im not a predictor, im a reactor in general.

 

[Danger Field]

Just why you be long from the big blackline is a mystery anyhow, but if you was, youd be sitting real tight just now. Just a shakeout to jangle the nerves of them that dont do their homework properly. A lot more play to the upside of about one third the shown vertical range before this boiler runs out of steam.

 

[charliechan]

.....hello jon.....kinda hurts my head pretending im still long in this trade.......so i wont :cheesy: ......the neon lighted...alarm bell ringing....call out the dancing girls exit signal to close and reverse is marked red.....as i believe in keeping with the original thread title ....drawn on is my predictive wot happened next gig......this on will include noooo text....takes way too long and only just completed the last one..cheers mark j.......ps....by the looks of it you keep posting very similar corrections with slight twists....this one again is interesting...like the last but with greater signs of exhaustion....so sooner to fall i believe...

wouldnt you have thought there would be some kind of retest before coming straight down? the sudden move up before the drop doesnt look like a climax move to me yet.


i must say though, i have no idea of the fundamentals that may have caused the gap down. that is another factor that i guess you have taken into consideration, and i havent. either way, it looks like the decline started in the previous session, so unless those fundamentals/news came out then, this could well be fun & games to acquire at lower levels imo.

i dont even know what stock it is.!!!

what do i know? i went for the easy choice - a trading range!! call me a market guru please, cos all markets are always in some range or other, so i cant be proved wrong !!!! how very freudean of me .

 

[SOCRATES]

A slight variation this time.

You've been holding a long position from the black line and you are a bit nervous with the penultimate shooting star type candle and have decided to look for an exit just below its low if it goes that way the next day. Unfortunately you get no chance with the gap opening and like a good numpty you can't bring yourself to bite the bullet and flee so you watch the candle develop with some relief that it closes well off its low.

So wot happened next and how do you plan to manage your position from here?

good trading

jon

Pardon me for telling you but you made the blunder of not getting out on the toptail, which in this sequence of price scheduling is screaming at you that it is the top of the move.

When you are long, you sell into rising prices, not into falling prices.

In every respect I agree with MM and his synopsis above.

For this reason an exit now is a damage limitation excercise that could have been avoided if you had taken advantage of the momentum building up to the top, instead of hoping perhaps for more....which it is obvious that market conditions prevalent now cannot give.

Kind Regards As Usual.

 

[Danger Field]

Its gonna storm, not tank. doh!

 

[SOCRATES]

I have come back and had another look at the chart.

Now it does not matter to me what the timeframe is or the intrument or the exchange it is traded on.

What matters to me is to be able to forward and backward engineer the state of play.

And the state of play according to volumetric inference,time, price, intent and futurological implication, is that you had nearly all of the session in which to execute an exit.

If it was a 10 minute chart you had at least half = 5 minutes.

If it was a 20 minute chart you had at least 12 to 15 minutes.

Ir it was a 30 minute chart you had at least 18 to 20 minutes.

If it was an hourly chart then I would use approximate guesswork, rule of thumb and say more than half an hour.

And if it was a daily chart, then at least you had all or nearly all of the afternoon to do it in.

Kind Regards As Usual.

 

[Danger Field]

Pardon me for telling you but you made the blunder of not getting out on the toptail, which in this sequence of price scheduling is screaming at you that it is the top of the move.

When you are long, you sell into rising prices, not into falling prices.

In every respect I agree with MM and his synopsis above.

For this reason an exit now is a damage limitation excercise that could have been avoided if you had taken advantage of the momentum building up to the top, instead of hoping perhaps for more....which it is obvious that market conditions prevalent now cannot give.

Kind Regards As Usual.

sequence of price scheduling? Uh? Thats a weird bit o phraseology to be sure. You make it sound like its all been planned up front, which it aint. Its true theres an informed bunch and the rest, but we dont plan this stuff. We just do what we need to when conditions present and nobody notices. Momentum building to the top? They didnt know it was the top until after it became the top. Your making the same mistakes the majority do. Sure you sell out your long possies into rising action, but non-informed rising action. This is a shakeout.

 

[SOCRATES]

sequence of price scheduling? Uh? Thats a weird bit o phraseology to be sure. You make it sound like its all been planned up front, which it aint. Its true theres an informed bunch and the rest, but we dont plan this stuff. We just do what we need to when conditions present and nobody notices. Momentum building to the top? They didnt know it was the top until after it became the top. Your making the same mistakes the majority do. Sure you sell out your long possies into rising action, but non-informed rising action. This is a shakeout.

It is patently obvious you do not understand the predicament he has inadvertently put himself in.

If i were you, I should keep quiet, and know your place and not respond disrespectfully as you do, and not giving out this bluster of yours as it does not help at all.

If you want to and insist on assuming all of this is random do so, that is your affair.

No sooner does a thread get interesting and provide a challenge than all of you newbies start posting your opinions.

He does not want opinions, he wants and need facts, which he has been given, that's all.

 

[dc2000]

Is the thread for a select few or can anyone have a go ?

On the above chart I would look for an exit at the recent high this should come in the next 5 candles should the price go higher then you can look for another entry

 

[Danger Field]

You sure are a strange one man! Based on what your saying I dont think your in any pos to decide what is or isnt patently obvious. I didnt say it wos random . I said it wan't planned. As for newbie status if your basing that on number of posts then you definitely dont think too deeply about much at all. Address the point of th eposts, not the posters. Final word of advise to you, suggest you mind your manners. Its the measure of a man.

Behave.

 

[rossored]

It is patently obvious you do not understand the predicament he has inadvertently put himself in.

If i were you, I should keep quiet, and know your place and not respond disrespectfully as you do, and not giving out this bluster of yours as it does not help at all.

Albert, in all fairness this is an open thread, anyone can respond, be they a newbie or veteran. Your tone itself in this post is somewhat disrespectful, so I would take this opportunity to remind all members to please remain polite and courteous. We aren't elite trader, and we dont like slanging matches.

 

[SOCRATES]

Matt, I am not going to spoil the analysis Mr Marcus is preparing, to explain this chart in detail.

He is very competent and is guaranteed to deliver the correct synopsis. I know this.

I can appreciate perhaps in reality more than most how much effort goes into preparing a post of the type he makes, because transferring the thought processes into the written word is some task.

For this reason, and this reason alone, I am going to restrict this post to one comment.

In the closing stages of price development on the bull side, the whole thing revolves around the second last bar.

Look at the second last bar....it has a huge top shadow on it, far greater in order of magnitude than the body, not just in height but certainly in terms of volumetric impulse value - to any skilled chart reader, this is obvious at a glance.

In fact, if you look at all the sequence, in terms of price development and price development only, you will observe that it has the greatest toptail in the whole sequence that precedes it right back to the very beginning.

In any event, the outcome is already being made clear when you look at the nine bars that precede this toptail.

Already there, the portents were already deducible. Teetering up....tentatively.

Now what happens is that Barjon finds himself in this predicament.....

His predicament is that he failed to execute to get out on the toptail.

Momentum does not have to be accompanied by volume always - I concede that this serves to baffle a lot of people - also - and the reasons why these developments are not always generally understood, as a textbook cannot be written about it that would do it justice. It has to be understood at an intuitive level, that is why.

Also the crowd do not collectively and separately agree to take a price to a predetirmined level nor is the crowd able to plan anything other than responding, but the crowd is not everybody.

The topic of this thread as far as I can ascertain revolves around his predicament and what is thought is most likely to develop next, and not rolleyes or ciriticsm of how I phrase my posts.

That's all.

 

[Danger Field]

Even tough youve been rude man, I'll give yout eh benefit of the doubt and the benefit of my experience in this field. The reason it's not going to go down for all the classis reasosn you state and ignoring all the stuff you just made up, is that this is an inversion. You dont know what this is do you. An inversion is where the price action gets tested and it is found to be good. So good that we want to shakeout the teenie-weenies (you perhaps) and grap their money. Not all gaps are inversions but nearly all inversions are gaps. From what I have researched of Mr. Marcus posts, he knows what hes doing but even he has gone for the standard snapshot on this one. I only needed a quick scan of your posts to know you know only what is in the books and are unlikelty to ever have traded in reality. Maybe I'm wrong. No offence intended but there are certain things pros do and dont do or say and your not one.

The explanation you just gave about tails and relaive range which is what it is all about is bogus. Check the ranges again and the action within each of the bars as the range on the bar you refer to isnt that much out of line. And check again the volume at each surge and lull in the action. Its a lead up to hooking in the unwary into thinking when the crack occurs its bear time. Wrong. Its an inversion and you all just dumped your recently acquired and it was only recently acquired wasn't it, stock into my hands ready for the haul up.

Man, I should type here for a living like you guys do. Its fun. But it isn't trading.

 

[wasp]

Far from skilled in all this but as a point from a learners point of view, that second to last candle, with its supposed 'obvious' toptail signalling a stopping point and a reason to exit is not that obvious and such a great signal. I could post a few charts of recent with exactly the same scenario which continues up regardless.I'd need more info myself, news, current affairs, knowing what the chart is...

Personally I'd put a stop in just below the current low (as shown) and wait and see... But thats an amateur for you!

 

[Danger Field]

Far from skilled in all this but as a point from a learners point of view, that second to last candle, with its supposed 'obvious' toptail signalling a stopping point and a reason to exit is not that obvious and such a great signal. I could post a few charts of recent with exactly the same scenario which continues up regardless.I'd need more info myself, news, current affairs, knowing what the chart is...

Personally I'd put a stop in just below the current low (as shown) and wait and see... But thats an amateur for you!

Good post man. You may think your thinking like an amateur, but you thinking straight. Sure ut a stop below the low and then pile in long. Doiuble up if your already in. There is some real waffle goin on and it takes an amateur to stumble on the reaility. Go hang your heads guys. Specially wafflemeister.

 

[SOCRATES]

Far from skilled in all this but as a point from a learners point of view, that second to last candle, with its supposed 'obvious' toptail signalling a stopping point and a reason to exit is not that obvious and such a great signal. I could post a few charts of recent with exactly the same scenario which continues up regardless.I'd need more info myself, news, current affairs, knowing what the chart is...

Personally I'd put a stop in just below the current low (as shown) and wait and see... But thats an amateur for you!

Nope....

It is very clear indeed...it is screaming at you...but if Mr Marcus does not explain it in his commentary ....I will....you just have to wait.

 

[wasp]

Nope....

It is very clear indeed...it is screaming at you...but if Mr Marcus does not explain it in his commentary ....I will....you just have to wait.

So what about all the times I've seen the same happen only for it to continue? Was it just me imagining them?

 

[SOCRATES]

Even tough youve been rude man, I'll give yout eh benefit of the doubt and the benefit of my experience in this field. The reason it's not going to go down for all the classis reasosn you state and ignoring all the stuff you just made up, is that this is an inversion. You dont know what this is do you. An inversion is where the price action gets tested and it is found to be good. So good that we want to shakeout the teenie-weenies (you perhaps) and grap their money. Not all gaps are inversions but nearly all inversions are gaps. From what I have researched of Mr. Marcus posts, he knows what hes doing but even he has gone for the standard snapshot on this one. I only needed a quick scan of your posts to know you know only what is in the books and are unlikelty to ever have traded in reality. Maybe I'm wrong. No offence intended but there are certain things pros do and dont do or say and your not one.

The explanation you just gave about tails and relaive range which is what it is all about is bogus. Check the ranges again and the action within each of the bars as the range on the bar you refer to isnt that much out of line. And check again the volume at each surge and lull in the action. Its a lead up to hooking in the unwary into thinking when the crack occurs its bear time. Wrong. Its an inversion and you all just dumped your recently acquired and it was only recently acquired wasn't it, stock into my hands ready for the haul up.

Man, I should type here for a living like you guys do. Its fun. But it isn't trading.

Did I say whether it would go down or up from the last bar, did I ?

No, I didn't.

I confined my comments to the second last bar and the toptail on it and its implications but not all the full reasoning leading up to it, so as not to spoil the post Mr Marcus is about to make.

That is all.

 

[SOCRATES]

So what about all the times I've seen the same happen only for it to continue? Was it just me imagining them?

I said to you in my previous post you have to wait.

I don't exactly know whether Mr Marcus is going to explain it the way I would.

For this reason you have to wait and see, just be patient.