Worst luck

[rsh01]

Because x trades in a row was apparently more that the OP expected so in his case it was not meaningless.

Peter

even so WP, we dont know what element of his expectancy is down to subjectivity - it turns out quite a lot. for anyone to comment objectively then needed much more info, which shakone finally asked for.

 

[DionysusToast]

Have you ever lost 13 trades in a row???

That, after losing over and over and over again previously.

Even if I didn't have an strategy, which I have, this shouldn't happen.

Feeling like a ****ing disgrace...

Easy enough to do.

Best way to do it.

Go short, see the market go your way, fail to take a profit, see the trade come back up and hit your stop. At that point, go long, get into profit a little, see the market come back down and hit your stop. Now go short....

Simple revenge trade rules.

Was this all in one day?

 

[DionysusToast]

There must be something wrong in your system most probably , try to remember the conditions in which your trades were profitable. try following the reverse of your "rules" you never know they might work as you say 95% trades are loosers perhaps 95% would become winners :innocent:

Nope - reversing his rules will not turn the losers into winners. See my previous post.

I could be wrong but I sort of think I'm not.

You can apply rules or you can bend them to make an excuse to enter a revenge trade in the worst location possible. I suspect trade location is the issue & the bad location is caused by frustration.

I could be wrong though...

 

[ZEN archer]

It depends on probability of winning among other things. If it's 50% one can expect 16 losing trades in a row. 60% - 12 in a row, 70% - 9 in a row, 80% - 7 in a row, 90% - 5 in a row...
It's a mathematical fact that will happen if you trade long enough.

Losing streak formula: LS = (LN(TS)-LN((1-PW/100)))

LS = losing Streak
LN = Natural Logarithm
TS = Trading Sample
PW = Probability of winning

PS Above is based on 50,000 TS

 

[DionysusToast]

Yes I did. Yes, I do 1:4 risk reward ratios, and it's been over 3 weeks.
With a 1:4 I know there will be many losses, but jesus, 13...

Nonetheless right now I hold a profitable position (short AUD USD from 1.0250), we shall see...

Yup - hold it - until it turns around.

Then don't close it out because it's failing, stay in and hope it'll get back to where it was, where you promise the God of your choice you will exit.

Then see it come back & hit your stop.

1:4 is arbitrary, a move is done when it is done.

Still - 1:4 with a coin toss will give you 25% winners in theory...

 

[DionysusToast]

BTW - I must be the only other person here that has also managed to do this.

Maybe we should start a support group - I'll be your sponsor cup243.

The first step is to admit you are powerless over the buy button...

 

[ffsear]

even so WP, we dont know what element of his expectancy is down to subjectivity - it turns out quite a lot. for anyone to comment objectively then needed much more info, which shakone finally asked for.

I think the tone and and fact that he started this thread is subject enough!

 

[Shakone]

The problem is that I have just started and I am losing all the time, even though I am following all rules of trading. Even if I did it crazy mode, I am not supposed to lose so much. Around 95% of trades are losses. I'll keep trying anyway.

Given a risk reward ratio of 1:4, you should expect with no knowledge or skill to lose more than 80% of trades. How much more than 80% depends on the spread and the targets you're aiming for. With such a high loss rate, you can expect a fairly large run of consecutive losers, and over a particular series of trades a loss rate of around 95% is not unreasonable.

What is the win rate you are expecting? Over 100 trades say, what do you think is the largest run of consecutive losers you can expect to see? Have you looked into these stats before?

 

[R.Charnock]

The best advice is surely to give up counting strings of winners or losers, because it might be irrelevant to long-term results.

 

[wackypete2]

even so WP, we dont know what element of his expectancy is down to subjectivity - it turns out quite a lot. for anyone to comment objectively then needed much more info, which shakone finally asked for.

OK fair enough, but my advice was to take a day off, clear your head, review your trades. In what case is that bad or inappropriate advice? His expectancy is irrelevant if he wants to use that advice.

Peter

 

[barjon]

..........What is the win rate you are expecting? Over 100 trades say, what do you think is the largest run of consecutive losers you can expect to see?.......

...and here's a table that may help

 

[Nikhil Dogra]

Nope - reversing his rules will not turn the losers into winners. See my previous post.

I could be wrong though...

You are right sir.
I really feel that 95% loss rate is too high , even if one uses proper risk and money management it would be very very hard for this system to break-even. I think minimum win% should be atleast 30% as that can be overall winner with proper risk management. I could be wrong though...

 

[cup243]

Well well, made a bit of profit right now (short audusd), so I just offset around 4 of my previous loses.

 

[cup243]

Yup - hold it - until it turns around.

Then don't close it out because it's failing, stay in and hope it'll get back to where it was, where you promise the God of your choice you will exit.

Then see it come back & hit your stop.

1:4 is arbitrary, a move is done when it is done.

Still - 1:4 with a coin toss will give you 25% winners in theory...

Well mate you are wrong, that kind of thing I did in the very beginning, now I have learned enough about trading to not make those legendary mistakes. If I'm off I'm off, I don't reenter a trade because I am mad at the market.

And by the way, holding a profitable position is a right practice, it will notably decrease your success ratio but it will greatly increase long term profits. So they say most good traders (old Livermore included). If you disagree please explain why.

Nonetheless it's true that many many times, it's going profitably and then comes back and hit my stop loss. It feels bad but I follow mechanical rules.

 

[R.Charnock]

Visit Pioneer Trading Academy to solve those losing trade woes!

Or alternatively try Mike Baghasloopie.

 

[Nikhil Dogra]

And by the way, holding a profitable position is a right practice, it will notably decrease your success ratio but it will greatly increase long term profits.

Thats true but holding profitable positions doesn't make one rich , exiting them does!

 

[cup243]

Thats true but holding profitable positions doesn't make one rich , exiting them does!

Explain why.

Missing a massive continuation is worse for your balance than losing a trade.

 

[Nikhil Dogra]

i have never seen a system which doesn't signal a re-entry in the main trend! Ultimately its upto the trader to re-enter if its discretionary and if its mechanical i would be surprised if the chap hasn't programmed the system to re-enter.

 

[cup243]

i have never seen a system which doesn't signal a re-entry in the main trend! Ultimately its upto the trader to re-enter if its discretionary and if its mechanical i would be surprised if the chap hasn't programmed the system to re-enter.

So you mean that it's better to get out when you think there is gonna be a temporary retracement, and get back in when you think it's the end of it? I don't know of a better way to miss the meat of a trend, really.

 

[DionysusToast]

Well mate you are wrong, that kind of thing I did in the very beginning, now I have learned enough about trading to not make those legendary mistakes. If I'm off I'm off, I don't reenter a trade because I am mad at the market.

And by the way, holding a profitable position is a right practice, it will notably decrease your success ratio but it will greatly increase long term profits. So they say most good traders (old Livermore included). If you disagree please explain why.

Nonetheless it's true that many many times, it's going profitably and then comes back and hit my stop loss. It feels bad but I follow mechanical rules.

I never said you shouldn't hold a winner.

Let's say your target is 20 pips but your stop is 5.

You get into a long trade, it reaches 19 pips profit and turns back. Do you let it come back and hit your full stop?

Bottom line is that you can mis-manage 99.999% of trades into a loss. You just had 13 in a row....

Chances are - it is not your rules creating this losing streak.