Stuck

[ZEN archer]

I have absolutely no luck whatsoever. Ok, well I have a bit of luck because if I didn't then I'd have no money left but still. I just can't get ahead and stay ahead and it's getting really frustrating! Just closed my 4th loss in a row and I'm currently getting rinsed in the 5th which will put me back at evens yet again after nearly 100 trades since last September

I've seen some of your live calls B - there were good. You may be extremely unlucky, but I would suspect this is something to do with your money management. Do you risk fixed percentage of your account on every trade?

If you don't - try to do it all the time. That's the only way to avoid repeating the experience again and again...

 

[bbmac]

and remember if doing that advised by Zen - fixed % doesn't have to mean the same number of pips stoploss on each trade as each trade is different - ie alter your trading volume if you have to, to accomodate a stop that is least likely to be hit...ie the market doesn't care that we want a fixed number of pips for our stops.

Remember too that the definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result (s) - so you are right to ask the question and examine what it is you could do differently to get securely into consistent profit over any such 100 trade sample as an example.

G/L

I've seen some of your live calls B - there were good. You may be extremely unlucky, but I would suspect this is something to do with your money management. Do you risk fixed percentage of your account on every trade?

If you don't - try to do it all the time. That's the only way to avoid repeating the experience again and again...

 

[ZEN archer]

fixed % doesn't have to mean the same number of pips stoploss on each trade as each trade is different - ie alter your trading volume if you have to, to accomodate a stop that is least likely to be hit...ie the market doesn't care that we want a fixed number of pips for our stops.


G/L

Personally I risk 1 to 3% on each trade depending on a quality of that signal (and some other factors). The number of pips is irrelevant - some 50 pips trades may be 1% or 15 pips can be 3%. Whatever the case there is no such a set up where I would risk more than 3%.

 

[ZEN archer]

Do you risk fixed percentage of your account on every trade?

I've mentioned fixed percentage - I've meant maximum fixed percentage which can't be breached.

BTW I have 4% maximum loss per day limit as well, so won't experience 2 x 3% losses in a day - after 3% loss I can risk up to 1% only on the next trade.

 

[brewski1984]

I always risk the same amount of money on every trade, although I increased account size slightly a couple times during the 100 trades which i guess will confuse the profit in money terms a little.

 

[ZEN archer]

Maybe it's good to reduce the size or stop trading atm. That would give you some time to do a proper research if it's something to do with the system, untradable/manipulated market etc. and at the same time you won't lose money. I'm a day trader and there have been quite a few days where I didn't trade at all because of the rubbish/untradable market.

 

[isatrader]

You trade a broad range of products. Have you broken down your results from your system by product? As you might find it's more effective with a certain product than others. And also by times of day. I.e. are you trading the products during their most liquid hours? Also, what did your back testing show?

 

[Doomberg]

Oh Whoopie Doo!! Monday was almost one week ago and you're still bragging about it? That means it was probably an utter fluke. I've seen it all before at trade2win, especially in liquidating markets, where any numbskull can go short and make a profit. You'll probably end up doing what brewski1984 has done and wipe out all of your profits within 6 months.

More negativity, great... just what T2W needs... new_trader I was merely illustrating that there are much more than 20 opportunities in 6 months, because in my 1st trading day this week i had more than 1/2 of 20 that's all. I'm starting a new journal today, so we'll see in there if my up days are utter flukes. But please, no negativity... i'm here to improve my trading, constructive criticism is welcome, but please... the "that was a fluke you'll blow your account" comments are not welcome.

 

[brewski1984]

Total number of trades: 98
Total pip gain/loss: +206
Total winning trades: 50
Total losing trades: 48
Total B/e trades: 0 I let it run to stop or target to stop myself interfering with trades
Strike rate of trades at b/e or better (ie as a % of total trades): 51%
Strike rate of winning trades (as a % of total trades): 51% win rate
Expectancy/trade (ie total pips gained or lost divided by total trades): 2.107
Longest consecutive winning run of trades: 8
Longest consecutive losing run of trades: 4
Largest winning trade in pips: 303
Largest losing trade in pips: 160
Average winning trade in pips: 89.25
Average losing trade in pips: 88.7
Average winning trade less largest winning trade if more than twice the largest average trade: do you mean 89.25-303? = -213.75
Average losing trade less largest losing trade if more than twice the average losing trade as calculated above: do you mean 88.7 - 160? = -71.3

 

[tar]

I didn't have to continue with the numbers just first 2 lines , 98 trades , 206 pips gained , you are just making double the spread , ie : you pay 50% of your profits for costs (spread+slippage) , its not going to happen that way , you need something new IMHO .

 

[Mr Woozel]

EU and US indices, commodities, gbp/usd and eur/usd. I've taken almost 100 trades since the start of last september which I didn't think was a lot but seems it might be. I use daily timeframe.

When trading eur/usd and gbp/usd maybe what appears like 2 losses (1 on each) can actually just be one loss. No idea how you trade but say you have buy limit orders on both pairs and for that day news comes out that causes $ to be bought across the board. If both trades take a loss then they are really the same loss as the weakness in both pairs was caused by $ being bought.

I use S&R and TL and wouldn't consider using that to trade indices (I don't think I would ever trade indices)

So maybe just concentrate on eur/usd and and an index

 

[timsk]

Total winning trades: 50
Total losing trades: 48

Average winning trade in pips: 89.25
Average losing trade in pips: 88.7

Hi brewski,
Your methodology is at break even. So, with these results, you'll remain 'stuck' until you make some sort of change. You can either focus on improving your success ratio (No. of winning trades Vs No. losing trades) or your profit ratio (Average win Vs average loss). Or both of course. If I were in your shoes, I'd start here: "I let it run to stop or target to stop myself interfering with trades." If you examine the losing trades, look for opportunities to close them before they hit your stop loss. If you can achieve that, you'll notice an immediate improvement in the profit ratio and, as a consequence, your bottom line.
Tim.

 

[bbmac]

Re the bottom 2 stats - work out your average winning trade ie total pips gained on the winning trades in the sample divided by total winning trades and vice versa for losing trades....this you have done the av winning trade is 89.25 and av losing trade is 88.7

Now your largest winning trade at +303 pips is twice as big or more than the average winning trade so work out what would the average winning trade look like net of that largest winning trade ? Similarly - vice versa for the losers

Now look at where most of your winners and losers fell did they fall below the average winner/loser or above it ? - ie try to guage whether you have any 'outliers' that are distorting your metrics of the sample...to give a better representation of your typical activity over that sample.

From the stats done so far it's quite clear where the problem (s) is/are as others have alluded to....low expectancy/trade because average winner is just about equal to average loser.

On a daily trigger given the number of trading days between last september and now - you are probably over trading but this is hard to say without knowing your edge ?

It's not a disaster and I'm surprised with a 50% strike rate that you haven't suffered a longer consec losing run of trades over that 98 sample size.

Look at what you did right on the winning trade versus what you may have done wrong on the losing trades (you may have done nothing wrong other than followed your edge to the letter - in which case it may just be an unproductive edge over that sample size.) However it may be that your trade management was not good or that you need to aim for a bigger R;R ratio or that some of the trades didn't follow the entry criteria of the dge...ie you need to identify what the reasons for the preformance are - and from there you can find the answers....but do the stats each 50 or 100 trades as you have done here beacuse they can hgelp you assess this and always keep your edge profitable (assuming you have an edge.)

G/L

Total number of trades: 98
Total pip gain/loss: +206
Total winning trades: 50
Total losing trades: 48
Total B/e trades: 0 I let it run to stop or target to stop myself interfering with trades
Strike rate of trades at b/e or better (ie as a % of total trades): 51%
Strike rate of winning trades (as a % of total trades): 51% win rate
Expectancy/trade (ie total pips gained or lost divided by total trades): 2.107
Longest consecutive winning run of trades: 8
Longest consecutive losing run of trades: 4
Largest winning trade in pips: 303
Largest losing trade in pips: 160
Average winning trade in pips: 89.25
Average losing trade in pips: 88.7
Average winning trade less largest winning trade if more than twice the largest average trade: do you mean 89.25-303? = -213.75
Average losing trade less largest losing trade if more than twice the average losing trade as calculated above: do you mean 88.7 - 160? = -71.3

 

[chaselancaster]

Enlightening thread and thanks for sharing the stats Brewski - will be interesting to see what more develops....sorry I can't add much useful at this stage but learning a lot particularly re doing such stats and what they immediately reveal... I would do a quartile analysis ie see where your winning and losing trades fall as BBmac says are they in the upper middle 2 or lower quartile above/below the mean winner/lower (average.) Will be using these stats to examine my trading every 100 trades made.

Thanks again.

 

[brewski1984]

Thanks for all the advice, I'm spending a bit of time reviewing things. I'm going to look into adding some breakeven/higher rr criteria/closing my account to see how it affects the win rate. I still couldn't resist a trade though

 

[NVP]

I have absolutely no luck whatsoever. Ok, well I have a bit of luck because if I didn't then I'd have no money left but still. I just can't get ahead and stay ahead and it's getting really frustrating! Just closed my 4th loss in a row and I'm currently getting rinsed in the 5th which will put me back at evens yet again after nearly 100 trades since last September

sorry to come in later......may be an idea to take the winning trades and run some simulations based on differing Exit strategies .....its helped me a lot over the years and the extra pips squeesed can really make a difference

N

 

[Lee Shepherd]

Thanks for all the advice, I'm spending a bit of time reviewing things. I'm going to look into adding some breakeven/higher rr criteria/closing my account to see how it affects the win rate. I still couldn't resist a trade though

Hiya Brewski,

I have had a quick look over your stats and trading history and to be honest it looks like you can do this job, the only issue is there is something wrong there somewhere that I cant put my finger on that is stopping you from Making money. Well done on trading and not losing any though, most find this an impossible task by itself.

If you need some help in this area and you feel talking about it may help then skype me. If I can help then great, if not, no worries and good luck.

Hope to speak to you soon,

Lee

Skype: lee.shepherd30

PS: I'm not always on so PM me preferred times.

 

[brewski1984]

Thanks lee, I appreciate the offer ill pm you at some point in the next few days.

 

[Steve]

This has been a very interesting thread with some really useful guidance. I don't want to add anything, I just wanted to thank everyone for taking the time and interest to make the posts. I know it will sound a bit cheesy but it really is discussions like these that make on line communities work, whatever your viewpoint.

So thanks again and good luck with getting unstuck brewski1984!

 

[Lee Shepherd]

This has been a very interesting thread with some really useful guidance. I don't want to add anything, I just wanted to thank everyone for taking the time and interest to make the posts. I know it will sound a bit cheesy but it really is discussions like these that make on line communities work, whatever your viewpoint.

So thanks again and good luck with getting unstuck brewski1984!

Hi Steve,

Taking a brief look at Brewski's stats it appears he is very close. Especially when his only problem is breaking even, this is a great start and something to work on. Something he is doing just needs tweaking slightly and he'll be on the right side. When Brewski contacts me we'll work something out together providing he's open to change and report back on here so others may benefit.

I found some of the comments he was given were a bit bashful, shame on you people

You know who you are.

Lee