new_trader said:Db,
I appreciate the fact that this figure may be unsubstantiated. If it is purely urban legend as you assert then I think it’s equally reckless to quote another unsubstantiated figure. I would say the business failure rate is obtained from the number of businesses that file for bankruptcy each year.
I think you are missing my point that I have attempted to clarify a few times. I have said it does NOT require much more effort to be in the top 3-5% of traders. You are making it seem an impossibly difficult task by trying to discredit this figure. Saying that every 3rd moron can be successful at trading isn’t encouraging.
Using a Trading System that has proven to be robust through back testing puts you in the top 1% ¹ of traders, it’s that simple.
dbphoenix said:It's hardly unsubstantiated. Just do a simple search.
First, I am simply pointing out that the figure has no basis in fact. Nor am I trying to characterize trading as an impossibly difficult task. Rather the opposite.
Second, I don't recall saying anything about morons. But for someone to say that 33% of aspirants can be successful is hardly discouraging.
Third, there is nothing especially rare or unusual about a "robust" back-tested system. They're as common as daisies in spring. What is more unusual is such a system which performs as expected, consistently, in real time, over an extended period.
Second, I don't recall saying anything about morons. But for someone to say that 33% of aspirants can be successful is hardly discouraging.
Third, there is nothing especially rare or unusual about a "robust" back-tested system. They're as common as daisies in spring. What is more unusual is such a system which performs as expected, consistently, in real time, over an extended period.
PKFFW said:Personally I think one of the main reasons so many people fail is because those with true knowledge have a vested interest in keeping it that way. I'm not talking about some golden key or secret system. I'm just talking about the basic skills needed to successfully trade the markets.
new_trader said:You are saying 33% can be successful. I am saying that 100% can be successful but only [a much smaller %] actually are because they have done the proper groundwork.
Ok. So are you now disputing the fact that only the top 1% of traders use a such a system?
I agree with you and this is what eventually develops into the missing "something".CityTrader said:To paraphrase a quotation from a FX trading book ( cant remember it's name)
You want to know how to make money? give me 2 minutes and I'll show you how:- Buy low, sell high. Now give me 2 decades and I'll teach you when it's low, and when it's high.
There is no global conpsiracy to stop newbies reaching the holy grail. All you need is hard work, experience, ability, focus, luck, and more.
CT
dbphoenix said:What "fact"?
I can see where you have been. I can imagine what you have put yourself through. I can echo your sentiment, because I understand deeply, what you are on about, but I assure you, ZDO, that I am in the absolute minority. It is one hell of an odessey, only those who are brave enough to put themselves through it can appreciate, and then, the difficulty is that words cannot be found to describe it to those not willing or not able to cause themselves to confront. And then, on emerging on the other side of the nasty tunnel, which takes a very long time to negotiate, you are never the same again. You have now earned your absolute rights, and because much of it cannot even be explained, or even discussed in a way that ordinary people can understand and relate to in any way, neither can it be shared. Those of you who understand, good, those of you who don't, good as well. Those of you who know, know, and those of you who don't know, just don't, and will continue to perpetuate silly closed loop arguments.ZDO said:I’ve said this before and got blank stares. I’ll say it again.
Master lists of requisite States, Acts, and Relations exist for reaching the upper echelons of trading. It would take many prose talented upper echelon traders to create such a ‘tabla’ and it would fill a book. Every contributor to this thread has been ‘on topic’ about one or more of the items on the list – no one is wrong.
If you find yourself going “bah” to someone’s description or experience of a list item; you either had that state, act, or relation ‘down pat’ from way back in time (genetically or by unconscious competence) OR you are in denial about your need to clear yourself on that list item. If you find yourself replying “No. Actually you should focus on disipline…” ( or …finding the right system… or just this little list of 8 things… or whatever) then be aware – by excluding list items, you are a danger to yourself (and any others who may be resonating with you at the moment) because NO ONE’S list is short! We’re human.
No individual fully knows how or why s/he succeeds or fails at trading. Some are more conscious than others of their own personal lists and what’s not ‘cleared’ yet. Operating in the upper echelons appears ‘easy’, but it is more complex than the norm because the list must be near complete, conscious, and, most importantly, the ‘cleared’ list items integrated developmentally. Although all love the potentials, few love the actual process of trading enough to withstand the multitude of mental, informational, physio-emotional, energetic and etc. discomforts of getting through clearing all their personal list items. A few are blessed with the fortune of a short list to ‘clear’ before starting to thrive – Larry Williams, Tom Baldwin, and etc come to mind. Other wizards had a slightly longer, but still much shorter relative to the average, list to clear. Most of us have a much, much larger list of items to clear.
Roughly, the percentage of items you have cleared on your list is what percentile of traders you are in – i.e. you can use how well you trade as a perfect indicator of how much work you have left to do on your list. Again, if you’re thinking “If I just focus on ___________ and put blinders on to everything else” you are excluding, denying, trying to delete important items from your list. Instead, be inclusive. Add issues to your very explicit, down on paper list. Then let awareness (not just brains) lead you to and through each issue. So – is your list short, long, or too long?? ( and btw, the correct size is always ‘too long’!)
Yes, practical items about thinking, reason, learning, decision making, execution, what to think, what not to think, and when to think not, etc do belong on your lists. However, all your lists need to include many ‘esoteric’ items as well. For example, Eckhart Tolle uses a concept called the ‘pain-body’ and shows how most of our thinking is aligned with the energy field of the painbody. Do you go about truly HOOTLESS? Be honest. So – interested in taking risks? Try severing all your emotional and somatic connectors to your ‘pain body’ one by one as these associations present themselves – talk about wearing down a big ego… Here’s my corollary – with even a wisp of ‘pain body’ left you cannot consistently thrive at trading. And going away from it will not improve things – only going into it will help. Go ahead and laugh - bubba. This is a high denial area. I bet this whole ‘why’ thread / topic has the word ‘fear’ used less than 10 times! You can exclude these ‘esoteric’ ‘somethings’ and you may survive in this game - but you will not thrive. And rather than fault other posters for what they seem to exclude from their lists, explore where these ‘hidden’ items are really at on your own list.
After nearly 21 years at this
I know some things I don’t understand.
I understand some things that I don’t know.
I know and understand some things that I couldn’t begin to explain or teach.
So Find Your Own Way!
Set and grow an intention that will survive working through your whole list.
Right now is a good time to start and start afresh and
Expect despair - embrace it
Expect resistance – relinquish it
Expect conflict – attack it
Expect indolence – flee it
These ‘negatives’ are the best trading indicators for developing – bar none. Learn them intimately rather than try to avoid and escape them. Too negative? Not at all. This is balanced, organic alchemy. These indicators ride the other side of the ‘follow your bliss’ coin. If the work is tedium or exceedingly difficult, trading may not be your cup of tea. “…neither search the things that are above thy strength” (Apocrypha). If so, find something else you love. Trading is not the only ‘easy’ way to attract abundance. “Sometimes the easy way out is the easy way in.” (Mark Goulston). Denying this and being one of the suckers doesn’t really help you in the long run. Or me either - I improve my game by playing against equals.
And yes, “trading against near equals” is on my list. This has deep but traceable roots. For me, trading is a ‘predator vs predator’ game and I don’t really have much respect for those who try to play a ‘predator vs prey’ game and I have sympathy for those who in reality unconsciously play a ‘prey vs prey’ game. Which game do you really play? (And how could you change ‘games’?? That’s simple but difficult – ‘Choose To’ as many times as it takes.)
Working through your lists and putting it all together is not simple.
Working through your lists and putting it all together is not easy.
Success is about seeking and finding your real truth, not your wishful truth.
“Everyone loves to win. Few love to prepare to win” (paraphrasing Frank Taucher.)
… why so few succeed…
Ironically, by talking directly to YOU, I will repel most of you – but then I really never had you to lose – only you did… ie I imagine only one or two readers will truly get this.
Your friend - having his monthly ‘dbSocrates zombie’ moment,
zdo
I never said there was a conspiracy of any sort. Conspiracy would suggest some collusion of action amongst successful traders which I do not believe to be the case. I simply stated that it is in a profitable traders interest to keep that knowledge of how to be profitable to themselves. As has been discussed before, trading is essentially a zero sum game. If all were as profitable as each other there would be no profits for anyone. Hence, many with true knowledge of how to trade profitably choose not to share that knowledge. It is no different to top athletes not sharing their training regime with others. I'm not suggesting there is something inherently wrong with this attitude either.CityTrader said:To paraphrase a quotation from a FX trading book ( cant remember it's name)
You want to know how to make money? give me 2 minutes and I'll show you how:- Buy low, sell high. Now give me 2 decades and I'll teach you when it's low, and when it's high.
There is no global conpsiracy to stop newbies reaching the holy grail. All you need is hard work, experience, ability, focus, luck, and more.
CT
Pringle said:I think ZDO and Socrates should get on well... Meanwhile on Planet Earth.
I assure you that in this reply there is no intention to wind up anyone whatsoever, I am being constructive and critical but in a positive way, though you may not consciously realise it.PKFFW said:I never said there was a conspiracy of any sort. Conspiracy would suggest some collusion of action amongst successful traders which I do not believe to be the case. I simply stated that it is in a profitable traders interest to keep that knowledge of how to be profitable to themselves. As has been discussed before, trading is essentially a zero sum game. If all were as profitable as each other there would be no profits for anyone. Hence, many with true knowledge of how to trade profitably choose not to share that knowledge. It is no different to top athletes not sharing their training regime with others. I'm not suggesting there is something inherently wrong with this attitude either.
This is also the reason, imo, why there is so much esoteric talk of the missing "something" and how no one can explain that "something" and how one must go through some journey of a thousand steps and complete a trial by fire to understand it all. Much easier to say that than to say, "frankly I don't want to teach you because that would take some of my profits away." Even though that is a completely valid viewpoint, most would rather not admit it to themselves as being the reason they do not wish to teach. As has been mentioned on this website and many others, the "turtles" experiment catagorically showed that anyone of moderate intelligence can be taught to trade effectively. Having read extensively about this experiment I am yet to find much talk of hidden somethings and trials by fire and secret knowledge the trainees had to find for themselves. What I have found is alot of knowledge about the basics of trading, a system to follow and talk of the discipline and focus to follow that system. Then there was talk of the remarkable success the majority of them achieved and continue to achieve even if they have developed their own new systems and are no longer following the supplied system.
I also completed my post by saying essentially the same thing you did. That hard work, discipline, experience etc etc etc will see you attain success regardless of the above.
Cheers,
PKFFW
I actually agree with your overall premise here Soc, some people are not suited to trading.SOCRATES said:I assure you that in this reply there is no intention to wind up anyone whatsoever, I am being constructive and critical but in a positive way, though you may not consciously realise it.
Has it not occured to you to consider that, unfortunately for them, there are a great many people who are unsuitable for this profession who ought not even be considering it ?
Has it not occured to you to consider that in addition there are many people who do consider themselves suitable for this profession when they see it from their viewpoint, which is not the correct one at all ?
Has it not occured to you to consider the myth that everyone can do this ?
All of those who are unsuitable, are unsuitable for a variety of reasons, sometimes these reasons remain hidden by them to themselves first and everybody afterwards in a very artful manner until they are put to the test, or, until they venture to put themselves to the test ?
Many of these reasons that cause people to be unsuitable are not necessarily detrimental.
Many of the components that make up these reasons are beyond their conscious control, so in a manner of speaking, you could say it is not their fault, but just the way they are ?
Some of these reasons may be deliberately detrimental, but not all.
Some of the problems involve complications as a result of not having natural aptitudes, which cannot be helped, and other problems involve complications which can be overcome, but with a lot of effort, a huge amount of effort, that is not viewed as necessary and hence completely disregarded.
The problem is people do not carry labels on their foreheads to show whether they are suitable or not.
Sometimes their unsuitability is obvious, and sometimes it is not. THAT is the problem.
There are parallels between this very topic and the topic of bomb disposal.
Another unsolveable problem is that unsuitability appears to choose the individuall that it blights and not the other way round. This is because no one consciously and deliberately sets out to fail.
Therefore as no one consciously sets out to fail, therefore in the event of failure, a contradiction arises in the mind of the failure that everything conceivable and not concieveable and everybody else is to blame, except the failure himself, and the ranting starts.
Now what ?
PKFFW said:....The unsuitability comes down to one thing in my opinion. Those who are not willing to do the work necessary to be successful will not succeed. All else is incidental.
If they have never tried trading I would suggest it is premature to condemn them to being unable to trade successfully.JumpOff said:I have a different view than this. I have met many a person that will never be able to trade successfully (not that they ever considered it mind you). The limiting factor has nothing to do with a willingness to work, but with an inability to adapt themselves to reality. Some folks are just so in love with their map that they are unable to reconcile it with the territory. The fact that the map says 'there should be a lake here' is more important than the fact that they are standing in front of a mountain.
JO
SOCRATES said:I assure you that in this reply there is no intention to wind up anyone whatsoever, I am being constructive and critical but in a positive way, though you may not consciously realise it.
Has it not occured to you to consider that, unfortunately for them, there are a great many people who are unsuitable for this profession who ought not even be considering it ?
Has it not occured to you to consider that in addition there are many people who do consider themselves suitable for this profession when they see it from their viewpoint, which is not the correct one at all ?
Has it not occured to you to consider the myth that everyone can do this ?
All of those who are unsuitable, are unsuitable for a variety of reasons, sometimes these reasons remain hidden by them to themselves first and everybody afterwards in a very artful manner until they are put to the test, or, until they venture to put themselves to the test ?
Many of these reasons that cause people to be unsuitable are not necessarily detrimental.
Many of the components that make up these reasons are beyond their conscious control, so in a manner of speaking, you could say it is not their fault, but just the way they are ?
Some of these reasons may be deliberately detrimental, but not all.
Some of the problems involve complications as a result of not having natural aptitudes, which cannot be helped, and other problems involve complications which can be overcome, but with a lot of effort, a huge amount of effort, that is not viewed as necessary and hence completely disregarded.
The problem is people do not carry labels on their foreheads to show whether they are suitable or not.
Sometimes their unsuitability is obvious, and sometimes it is not. THAT is the problem.
There are parallels between this very topic and the topic of bomb disposal.
Another unsolveable problem is that unsuitability appears to choose the individuall that it blights and not the other way round. This is because no one consciously and deliberately sets out to fail.
Therefore as no one consciously sets out to fail, therefore in the event of failure, a contradiction arises in the mind of the failure that everything conceivable and not concieveable and everybody else is to blame, except the failure himself, and the ranting starts.
Now what ?
PKFFW said:As has been discussed before, trading is essentially a zero sum game.
Every once in while, just now and again, just enough to make this thread worth the continued effort of reading...a post that actually addresses the thread topic. And in my LTHO, addresses the very essence of not just trading successfully, but doing everything successfully.JumpOff said:I have a different view than this. I have met many a person that will never be able to trade successfully (not that they ever considered it mind you). The limiting factor has nothing to do with a willingness to work, but with an inability to adapt themselves to reality. Some folks are just so in love with their map that they are unable to reconcile it with the territory. The fact that the map says 'there should be a lake here' is more important than the fact that they are standing in front of a mountain.