Why do so few succeed?

Barjon summed it up for you....

i work in the hedge fund business so i know some of the best traders in the world....the guys who are running billions of dollars and making serious cash...not many people can succeed over the long term making money from purely punting around on financial markets....you will hear a lot of people talking about alpha and beta returns....traders that produce alpha returns...ie they actually produce p&l from their trading acumen are few and far between...the likes of Alan Howard at Brevan or Steve Cohen at SAC are some of them. Look at the lifespans of a typical hedge fund...the stats tell you that 80% of hedge funds will have failed after 3 years or so...and the guys running these shops will have been top traders at some of the biggest banks... Buying equities....sitting on them for a yr and then taking a positive p&l doesnt meean you are a good trader...there is more to it....just something to get you thinking
 
"i work in the hedge fund business so i know some of the best traders in the world"

sure, and that s because u r here. bs
 
purplevein said:
Barjon summed it up for you....

i work in the hedge fund business so i know some of the best traders in the world....the guys who are running billions of dollars and making serious cash...not many people can succeed over the long term making money from purely punting around on financial markets....you will hear a lot of people talking about alpha and beta returns....traders that produce alpha returns...ie they actually produce p&l from their trading acumen are few and far between...the likes of Alan Howard at Brevan or Steve Cohen at SAC are some of them. Look at the lifespans of a typical hedge fund...the stats tell you that 80% of hedge funds will have failed after 3 years or so...and the guys running these shops will have been top traders at some of the biggest banks... Buying equities....sitting on them for a yr and then taking a positive p&l doesnt meean you are a good trader...there is more to it....just something to get you thinking


I think you are confusing ( or blurring the lines) between fund managers and traders?

CT
 
Because trading in a disciplined manor is not easy when one has to cope with the frustration of often seemingly random events, that the paranoid trader may feel are conspiring against them.

This includes things such as - you try shorting a breakout, it does not happen, your Stop is hit. You try to short the same breakout again, the breakout does not happen and your stop is hit again. The third time you decide not to trade the breakout - and the result is that if you had have traded it this time, you would have made profit.

Furthermore, if you had held onto either of the first two losing trades, without taking a stop-loss, they would have come back into profit when the eventual third breakout materialised.
This is frustrating, as it seems like random pot luck determines if you placed your trade/s at the right or wrong moment, and to a large extent i think it is random Pot Luck - when it comes to what works and what doesn't work.

The trader can decide to trade the breakout every time their trade entry criteria is met, taking each and every stop-loss along the way, or they can stand aside after a few failed attempts, in order to avoid possible further losses, only to watch if and when the eventual breakout materialises.

The trader could also see that the breakout is occurring, enter the trade too late, and see the trade reverse against them resulting in another failed trade.

This type of negative experience and frustration can also lead to fear of failure. Therefore the trader may pass up on other types of good trade opportunities, only to see them move into profit - as they had foreseen, but were too scared to trade.
They may then hastily try to enter at a following entry opportunity that is not as good as the last, this trade fails. They may now be thinking, I should be +20 pipps in profit now, but instead I'm -10-pips!!! = more frustration.

Therefore the frustrated, indisciplined and potentially doomed trader may put up with such frustrations for so long before deciding, no, I'm not accepting that my stop-loss has been hit this time, I'm going to hold onto the trade, and it should come back into profit just like the others.
The trader may get away with these indisciplined trade managements decisions (which they may only resort to on a few rare few instances) for so long.
However, somewhere down the line the trader will find that price moves further and further away from the stop-loss that they didn't take - and now wish they had took it - leading to them being deeper in the red, unable to trade due to this losing trade hanging over them.
At some point they may have to add more funds to their account following a margin call in order to keep this doomed trade alive, or they accept a big loss on that one trade. and they only have a small fraction of the capital left that they had previously.

Learning from such mistakes is important.
To learn from such mistakes, you first have to be able to remember these mistakes!

In order to help you learn from and remember the mistakes made, as an intraday trader, still in the ealy stages of trying to become successful, I am finding that keeping a real-time traders diary is beneficial. Over the last few weeks I have filled 59 pages of A4 with my real-time thoughts and lessons learned. If i had not been doing this, i would not have retained half as much insight as I feel I have. Hopefully, things will start to click into place soon.
Hopefully as I progress further, and my learning curve of the initial weeks starts to plateau, i will have less and less need to record things in my diary, as I will recognise what is happening, and what is likely to happen next quicker, and correct decisions become more like second nature. With learning to read, interpret and react appropriately to the market, being similar to learning to ride a bike without stabilisers.
The diary may seem a bit of a ball acher but its proving immensely valuable so far, as just writing down your thoughts, insight lessons learned, theories, etc. in full and in a systematic way, helps you retain this much better than if it had just been left as a passing thought.
It then helps further, if you re-read what you have recorded in your diary.

If i hadn't kept a diary, i fear that the last few weeks would just be one long blur - a missed opportunity to remember what I've learnt through recording it


Hopefully in the comings weeks, the diary will go on to provide documentation of the journey, and "distance travelled" from novice trader to market wizard ;)
 
Last edited:
thanks for that comment mate...

just for your info I come on here occasionally to read some of the more interesting threads...

Im not saying im a good trader in sense of the imagination...

all im saying is i sit right next to one of the best macro traders in the world (no joke) he has his own $1.5bn dollar hedge fund where he takes 95% of the risk. I know a lot of poeple in the bussiness...

perhaps if you take in what im saying you may learn something...

you should be a bit more humble...
 
AsifA,

Re:
AsifA said:
Thank you for your input. I am far from a cool calm enlightened individual. Truth be known I am wishy washy and swing like a pendulum emotively. And the points you have raised are salient and very important. Yesterday I experienced a few of those actions highlighted so I missed an opportunity as I hesitated to get a good price and then went into emotive conflict as to how long I should be in the position. My point however is you have to approach trading on a systems level. This method takes away the psychology I do my calculations (mathematically) and if they meet my set criteria, I commit. And I am 80 - 90% right on each occasion Sure I have to sweat it out if the move doesn't happen immediately in the direction I expected it to. Thats when I start questioning my model, however this approach minimises my risk but I also forgo opportunities. One issue I have noted is that although we have a forum, no one has shared a concise methodology of trading (and I am guilty of that)

Thanks for sharing. I guess I did come down a little hard on the ‘strengths based’ and ‘just do it’ posters. However, in performance games, weaknesses are not sufficiently offset by strengths. Unbalanced adaptation to one’s weaknesses detract from strengths in two possible ways. Hiding or fleeing, ie any denial of, any weakness stifles your strengths. Giving weaknesses priority attention over strengths, (whether by ‘choice’ or not) also blocks expression of strengths.

Unidentified, unacknowledged, unconfronted weaknesses will inevitably show up in an equity curve sloping towards zero - 'system' or no system. Our weaknesses are revealed by the uncertainties and varying rulerships and volatilities of markets AND of self. ie Putting on trades will, without any doubt, reveal all weaknesses. Most respond by tweaking, transforming, or replacing their ‘edge’ ( / system / methodology – “…why so many...”). Furthermore, while trades will reveal weaknesses, unfortunately, trades alone will hardly begin to show one how to correct weaknesses. Self behavior mod and ‘disipline’ will not prevail over unconscious biases and patterns left unconscious.

So which weakness to work on now? The most recent (or current) trading mistake and / or experience of internal conflicts and / or less than a joyful flow of peptides are the best indicators of which weaknesses to work on and overcome. Inclusive and in depth self questionnaires are a good way to open a can of weakness. (Maybe no longer but) a while back Robin Dayne (just google name) was doing a free trading psych chat on Tuesdays at 4:00 PM EST with an emphasis on developing your own sets of questions to answer for ‘digging’ into and working with these patterns (just a reference, not an ad or an endorsement – don’t get me started on trading coaches :) )

zdo
 
jtrader,

It’s good to see you’re still around. With journaling - now you’re cooking!
‘A straight line path has no shortcuts’ (paraphrasing simpleology.com).
We do have to be smart enough to find ‘edges’ but when we really get a handle on our strengths and weaknesses and the uncertainties and varying rulerships and volatilities of self, natural focused intelligence and clarity emerge and ‘edges’ literally jump off the charts at us. Then, (paradoxically) instead of smart enough, you have to be ‘stoopid’ enough to take every ‘edge’ pattern that triggers…
btw - have you considered journaling into a spreadsheet or database – it really facilitates organizing and data mining / turning the ‘data’ into useful ‘information’ > ‘knowledge’ > ‘wisdom’…

All the best

zdo
 
ZDO said:
jtrader,

It’s good to see you’re still around. With journaling - now you’re cooking!
‘A straight line path has no shortcuts’ (paraphrasing simpleology.com).
We do have to be smart enough to find ‘edges’ but when we really get a handle on our strengths and weaknesses and the uncertainties and varying rulerships and volatilities of self, natural focused intelligence and clarity emerge and ‘edges’ literally jump off the charts at us. Then, (paradoxically) instead of smart enough, you have to be ‘stoopid’ enough to take every ‘edge’ pattern that triggers…
btw - have you considered journaling into a spreadsheet or database – it really facilitates organizing and data mining / turning the ‘data’ into useful ‘information’ > ‘knowledge’ > ‘wisdom’…

All the best

zdo

Hi ZDO

I'm still around. I keep modifying my strats in the hope of improvement. I think i am achieving this, and certainly have a lot better understanding as a result of full-time live trading for the last 2 months. The learning curve is steep.

I don't have any discipline problems when it comes to trade exits, but occassionally enter a trade that did not meet my entry criteria. Occassionally this has worked, more often it leads to a loss. I then look at the chart and have to completely blame my own stupidity.
I had been thinking in terms of pips profit per weeks targets. This is a big mistake.
My system results tell me that some weeks i may/could/would make 130 pips profits, other weeks only 30 pips may be available. This is out of my control and i can only profit from the valisd opportunities that present themselves. If none present themselves, i should not trade. If zero valid trade signals arise, and i try to 2nd guess what will happen next, take the trade and make a loss, I am committing trading suicide, by being indisciplined.


Hopefully things will settle down, in the next week or so, now that I have a modified simple strategy/s/rules that i am yet to trade live. If things go well, i can then look to increase trade size.I just need to absorb and internalise "the edge" that i hope i'm developing, and things will be much more settled thereafter (hopefully, in theory).

As things settle down, the stupid occasional mistakes will then hopefully become very infrequent. Being able to quickly recognise the mistake you have made, is a good thing, if I had been making such mistakes and not recognising them as such, I would be more worried.
Cheers.
 
Last edited:
My Dads' bigger than your dad!! nah nah naahaa na.

purplevein said:
thanks for that comment mate...

just for your info I come on here occasionally to read some of the more interesting threads...

Im not saying im a good trader in sense of the imagination...

all im saying is i sit right next to one of the best macro traders in the world (no joke) he has his own $1.5bn dollar hedge fund where he takes 95% of the risk. I know a lot of poeple in the bussiness...

perhaps if you take in what im saying you may learn something...

you should be a bit more humble...


Humble? was that directed at me young boy? if it wasn't I appologise in advance, but on the assumption it was, here's my views.

You come on this board, with your know it all attitude, and dare to suggest I may learn something from YOU? I'm actually staggered by your arrogance, and naivety. So you sit next to one of the best macro traders in the world? yet he only has $1.5bln - fcking grow up, Unless he's a junior trader at GLG, Marshall Wace, RAB etc tec - with only $1.5 in a macro fund he's not even in the game. And the fact that you sit next him? so fcking what. I sat next Janet Jackson at Nobu last year - doesn't mean I can sing!! So for you to 1) suggest I can learn something from you, and 2( that I should be more humble? I suggest you go and spend some time on the Womens Institute home page if you want humble or spend an awful lot more time peering over the shoulder of your "one of the best macro traders in the world" if you ever hope to become a trader.
 
Few succeed because (short term trading at least ) is a zero sum game , unless there was abenovalent billionaire and thousands of traders making very small profits ( not very likely) ,the reverse being true , there will always be more losers than winners , of course losers get philosophical, "looking inwardly" etc , what else can they do, they arn't good enough to win so they blame their psychology , discipline , moon's phase and mother in law , the obvious answer , that maybe they havn't found a profitable strategy , don't have what it takes ,passes them by , i suggest they would be far better going back to looking at the markets to find a better strategy , something more reliable , that truly wins .After all the best psychology and money management will never get you ahead at roulette, but a trade that wins big and far more often than not , well you can iron out other problems , a truly and very profitable strategy is where it starts and finishes.
 
Top