Why do so few succeed?

[netcam]

I got a email from a company called Goldline.
It sounds so good Im just wondering if anyone has tryed their system

 

[dbphoenix]

(alright, db - work harder )

Or work smarter. Depends on how well you've defined your setup.

 

[superfly]

by darkhorse
===============
reality check:

Imagine all net positive traders standing in line to receive their paychecks from the market. The order of pay goes from biggest and best to smallest and worst. The guys at the front of the line always get the biggest lump sum. The guys at the back of the line always get the smallest, some of them only pocket change.

Look in front of you. See all those thousands of guys? See the titans at the very front making five hundred million a year, all the way down to guys making 30 or 40K? See all those blood stained veterans, lightning fast mavericks and ruthless soldiers of fortune? The pie is limited, and aaalll those dudes ahead of you have to be paid in full before you get to see a single red cent.

Now look the other way. How many people are standing behind you in line? Maybe like three other fish who just managed to struggle across the zero line. When you make it into breakeven land, there's an old guy with balloons in a blazer and top hat who shakes your hand at the gate: "Congratulations, you can finally pay your nut without bleeding to death! Here's fifty cents, don't spend it all in one place."

Still want to make a million? Or just a measly little hundred K? Fine. Great. First you have to get past all those other experienced hardcases who would rather eat dog vomit than give up a single spot in line. It's easy to take money from sheep- all you have to do is push the other wolves aside. Snicker.

 

[Bigbusiness]

I enjoyed reading "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" about the trading exploits of Jesse Livermore. He was one of those that did succeed and is often mentioned by others as one of the best ever traders. I did note that he lost a fortune once and had to start again, made an even larger fortune and then lost that. So was he successful or just a gambler? Then I read that he married a woman whose previous 4 husbands had committed suicide. Those are not the odds I would like to take on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Livermore

 

[SOCRATES]

QUOTEAnd already at the age of fifteen...while working.....he would write down certain hunches he had about future market prices...UNQUOTE

Comment:~."Gifted", irrespective of his knack of choosing unsuitable ladies.

 

[TheBramble]

I enjoyed reading "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" about the trading exploits of Jesse Livermore. He was one of those that did succeed and is often mentioned by others as one of the best ever traders. I did note that he lost a fortune once and had to start again, made an even larger fortune and then lost that. So was he successful or just a gambler? Then I read that he married a woman whose previous 4 husbands had committed suicide. Those are not the odds I would like to take on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Livermore

The thing is, we do tend to find exactly what we're looking for in life. Whether we realise it consciously or not.

Which may ultimately be precisely the answer to the question asked by Millano in the first post on this thread.

While it's all well and good for us to list the various attributes of losing traders (losers in anything for that matter), perhaps it would be more useful to ask "What is it that leads those people to do those things which ultimately lead to the lack of success?". The question while more wordy will potentially yield an answer far more concise.

 

[superfly]

The correct yardstick

While it's all well and good for us to list the various attributes of losing traders (losers in anything for that matter), perhaps it would be more useful to ask "What is it that leads those people to do those things which ultimately lead to the lack of success?". The question while more wordy will potentially yield an answer far more concise.

"What is it that leads those people to do those things which ultimately lead to the lack of success?"

More reality check by darkhorse:
Since I haven't seen your trades and don't know your psychology, I can't tell you what's wrong, though I assume something is or you would not be struggling. I wasn't trying to be flip in offering analogies and riddles, but rather trying to encourage you to think about the process. Also I don't think the mental rehaul process is throwing everything away and starting from scratch, not by a long shot. It's more like taking a blowtorch to everything you've amassed so far and burning away the garbage, so that only the good stuff is left. If you've been trading for a couple years you are probably close to the end of the first initial stage. Look at it this way: if you were a doctor or a lawyer you would just be getting out of grad school by now. Reordering your thinking is not throwing away what you've worked so hard to learn- it's just the opposite. It's taking a fresh start with the goal of maximizing what you've learned and getting the connections in place. 'Creative destruction' is a key element of capitalism and it is also a key element of the learning process.

I think a dedicated trader's progress can be comparable to a chart that puts in a long base of steady sideways action, and then has a major breakout to the upside (followed by a sustained uptrend if the base is good). It can be VERY frustrating to get nowhere but sideways for a long period of time- yet the knowledge base is necessary to get the big uptrend that follows. My guess is that you are much closer to 'getting it' than you realize. You have consistently asked very good questions in various threads you've posted over the past few months, so I know you are on the right track and I know you've got the mental goods. You just need to expand that habit of asking questions and working out the answers in your own head. The learning pattern is not to see a steady rise. It's to have long grinding periods of seeming nowhereness followed by intense Eureka! moments that represent all that knowledge interconnecting itself and coming out forcefully AFTER it has been connected and integrated and not one second before.

So again, I didn't offer thinking exercises to be flip. I was more trying to make the point that hints and tricks and technical mumbo jumbo aren't the solution. Developing a sense of understanding is the solution. I can't give you that and neither can anyone else. But you are likely closer to it than you think. The knowledge you've got already is like a bunch of jumbled legos in a bag, now you just need to put them together in a way that clicks. Just trying to highlight that making the connections for yourself is what is key. When you 'get' something for the first time, it is a very powerful feeling. I went through the creative destruction process myself in a huge way.

A good while ago, maybe two years in, I remember feeling like a complete know nothing jackass. I had made money and lost it, made money and lost it, made money and lost it. Made a 400% return in a few months and gave it all back. I had read at least 60 books by that time, and been studying the futures markets all day every day. I was giving regular advice to clients (as a commodity broker), regularly giving currency and index commentary to the newswires, doing articles and newsletters. But I didn't really get it. I wasn't a good trader at all. After a really bonehead move at one point I said to myself, 'You know what man? You are just another fool broker who talks the talk but can't walk the walk. When the rubber meets the road you couldn't trade your way out of a paper bag.' Talk about a depressing feeling! I felt like a complete chump, just another fast talking sucker peddling dreams I couldn't even fulfill myself. Emotional wasteland. I was basically looking at the possibility that the years I had spent were a waste, that there was some mysterious element I was missing from my gut, that I just 'didn't have it.' But my personal pity party got old pretty fast. So I said to myself 'Forget that whiny crap. If I suck then I suck and that's all there is to it. Clearly I've gotten nowhere, so I might as well start over. What have I got to lose?' I viewed starting over as an admission of complete failure- which was fair, because from a trading perspective I Had been a complete failure up to that point.

So I threw everything out, declared myself a dummy, and went back to square one from a mental perspective. I went back over ALL the old ground. ALL of it. And you know what? At that point, two years in already, is when I really started to learn. All of my true 'Aha!' and 'Wow! and 'now I SEE it!' moments came AFTER that point, AFTER I threw in the towel on my ego and started over as a self declared know nothing. The entire first two years had primed the pump and nothing more. I remember going back and reading Market Wizards and Reminiscences again, and each time it was like reading entirely new books I had never seen before. I kept saying to myself, 'how could I have missed that! It's so obvious now! How could I not have seen that before!!!!' But the reason I had that flood of clarity is because of all the slogging I had done. I had to lay that groundwork and then go back over it again before I got anywhere. I had to build a base of knowledge in my subconscious to connect and solidify later, and I had to break myself before I could break out.

I believe that before you get anywhere substantial as a trader, you really have to flush your ego down the toilet and embrace the pain of feeling like a fool, no matter how much it hurts. Most people cannot do this. They may want to, they may talk like they can do it, but they can't. You know how some people talk and talk and you know that talk is all it is, no matter what they say? When it comes to embracing the pain, that's the barrier right there. Most people are WEAK, plain and simple. That's just the way it is. See, what I am saying ADDS UP because it reflects the real world. To make it as a trader you have to be strong, mentally, emotionally and maybe even physically. So why do most people experience long run failure at trading? At the root of it, because they are weak. Period.

So the only real secret is to always treat yourself like a beginner and always be on that hunt for clarity. Thinking is the key whether you have a few rules or a truckload of rules, because thinking things all the way through is the only way to establish those connections deep down in the recesses of your mind. Tips won't do it, specific advice won't do it, generalisms won't do it, because no one knows what your flaws really are but you. If I give you advice in area A but your problem is in area X, nothing is solved. If you yourself don't know where your problem is, you can't hone in on it. All I can say is, don't see the rehaul as an admission of failure- or if you do see it that way, don't be afraid to admit it as failure. Creative destruction is vital. Going back to square one- or square seven, or square fifteen, whatever- is a necessary and vital thing to do. That's one reason why so much market specific or technical specific advice on this board is, in the end, a waste of time. You have all these peeps who have never gone deep in their thought process and never embraced the pain. And I don't care if that sounds like Freud, lack of deep knowledge and lack of trial by fire has real world effects on the trading account, period.

So again I say, thinking is hard, admitting your own inadequacy is hard, backing up the truck is hard, embracing the pain is a bitch kitty. But that's the whole point. This stuff will always be tough, if everyone in the human race were strong and smart and disciplined there would be no one to take the crappy jobs. Mediocrity is like a black hole, you have to fight with all your might not to be sucked in by it. You might be close to breaking through, you might be years away yet. But it may help to know that it depends on your knowledge and your curiosity and your strength to persevere, NOT on some magic bullet.

 

[Kunal]

>>Or work smarter. Depends on how well you've defined your setup.
Absolutely.

 

[dbphoenix]

And who is "darkhorse"?

 

[superfly]

And who is "darkhorse"?

a poster on elitetrader.

 

[charliechan]

......

While it's all well and good for us to list the various attributes of losing traders (losers in anything for that matter), perhaps it would be more useful to ask "What is it that leads those people to do those things which ultimately lead to the lack of success?". The question while more wordy will potentially yield an answer far more concise.

simple.

focusing the mind on the negative and not the positive as i have stated all along.

this thread starts with a negative question which then focuses the mind on losing as it asks why it loses. its quite funny from an angle. then what happens? all the negativity builds and builds until we see a negative explosion (or should I say implosion?) and the whole damn thing turns in to a fight with underhand name calling and the like.

people then wonder why the whole thing has turned so negative which results in the expulsion in more negative but this time physical energy by barjon who wastes his positive energy by turning it into the negative and splitting the thread in order to create yet more negativity in its own area. twice. this is quite funny, especially when warned not to close the first diversion in order to avoid the negativity - which still has charge, and so will still seek to conduct itself elsewhere. due to the negative charge stored inside, he can not see the positive (solution), and we have the current state.

in short, we have a negative question which puts the collective t2w brain in a negative gear, resulting in negative behaviour which then spawns a couple of times, with the collective mind stuck in a rut chasing its tail wondering how to get out of the negative feed back loop that keeps reinserting itself.

im wondering how many have let the negativity spill out side of the realms of cybespace and into their persol lives.

i dont even think the trinity will help dig some out of this one!

whats with the negative vibes dude? keep it positive.

still very funny though watching the atoms etc buzz around etc. it has been a while since i sat in a physics class, but if i am not mistaken, if there is too much negative charge things get unstable. then, as dr strangelove would say ' we have a doomsday device'!

boy. that was good sh!t i was smoking last night


luckily, i have my positive deflector shield up and am immune to a lot of this - as long as i observe from a distance

 

[SOCRATES]

"What is it that leads those people to do those things which ultimately lead to the lack of success?"

More reality check by darkhorse:
Since I haven't seen your trades and don't know your psychology, I can't tell you what's wrong, though I assume something is or you would not be struggling. I wasn't trying to be flip in offering analogies and riddles, but rather trying to encourage you to think about the process. Also I don't think the mental rehaul process is throwing everything away and starting from scratch, not by a long shot. It's more like taking a blowtorch to everything you've amassed so far and burning away the garbage, so that only the good stuff is left. If you've been trading for a couple years you are probably close to the end of the first initial stage. Look at it this way: if you were a doctor or a lawyer you would just be getting out of grad school by now. Reordering your thinking is not throwing away what you've worked so hard to learn- it's just the opposite. It's taking a fresh start with the goal of maximizing what you've learned and getting the connections in place. 'Creative destruction' is a key element of capitalism and it is also a key element of the learning process.

I think a dedicated trader's progress can be comparable to a chart that puts in a long base of steady sideways action, and then has a major breakout to the upside (followed by a sustained uptrend if the base is good). It can be VERY frustrating to get nowhere but sideways for a long period of time- yet the knowledge base is necessary to get the big uptrend that follows. My guess is that you are much closer to 'getting it' than you realize. You have consistently asked very good questions in various threads you've posted over the past few months, so I know you are on the right track and I know you've got the mental goods. You just need to expand that habit of asking questions and working out the answers in your own head. The learning pattern is not to see a steady rise. It's to have long grinding periods of seeming nowhereness followed by intense Eureka! moments that represent all that knowledge interconnecting itself and coming out forcefully AFTER it has been connected and integrated and not one second before.

So again, I didn't offer thinking exercises to be flip. I was more trying to make the point that hints and tricks and technical mumbo jumbo aren't the solution. Developing a sense of understanding is the solution. I can't give you that and neither can anyone else. But you are likely closer to it than you think. The knowledge you've got already is like a bunch of jumbled legos in a bag, now you just need to put them together in a way that clicks. Just trying to highlight that making the connections for yourself is what is key. When you 'get' something for the first time, it is a very powerful feeling. I went through the creative destruction process myself in a huge way.

A good while ago, maybe two years in, I remember feeling like a complete know nothing jackass. I had made money and lost it, made money and lost it, made money and lost it. Made a 400% return in a few months and gave it all back. I had read at least 60 books by that time, and been studying the futures markets all day every day. I was giving regular advice to clients (as a commodity broker), regularly giving currency and index commentary to the newswires, doing articles and newsletters. But I didn't really get it. I wasn't a good trader at all. After a really bonehead move at one point I said to myself, 'You know what man? You are just another fool broker who talks the talk but can't walk the walk. When the rubber meets the road you couldn't trade your way out of a paper bag.' Talk about a depressing feeling! I felt like a complete chump, just another fast talking sucker peddling dreams I couldn't even fulfill myself. Emotional wasteland. I was basically looking at the possibility that the years I had spent were a waste, that there was some mysterious element I was missing from my gut, that I just 'didn't have it.' But my personal pity party got old pretty fast. So I said to myself 'Forget that whiny crap. If I suck then I suck and that's all there is to it. Clearly I've gotten nowhere, so I might as well start over. What have I got to lose?' I viewed starting over as an admission of complete failure- which was fair, because from a trading perspective I Had been a complete failure up to that point.

So I threw everything out, declared myself a dummy, and went back to square one from a mental perspective. I went back over ALL the old ground. ALL of it. And you know what? At that point, two years in already, is when I really started to learn. All of my true 'Aha!' and 'Wow! and 'now I SEE it!' moments came AFTER that point, AFTER I threw in the towel on my ego and started over as a self declared know nothing. The entire first two years had primed the pump and nothing more. I remember going back and reading Market Wizards and Reminiscences again, and each time it was like reading entirely new books I had never seen before. I kept saying to myself, 'how could I have missed that! It's so obvious now! How could I not have seen that before!!!!' But the reason I had that flood of clarity is because of all the slogging I had done. I had to lay that groundwork and then go back over it again before I got anywhere. I had to build a base of knowledge in my subconscious to connect and solidify later, and I had to break myself before I could break out.

I believe that before you get anywhere substantial as a trader, you really have to flush your ego down the toilet and embrace the pain of feeling like a fool, no matter how much it hurts. Most people cannot do this. They may want to, they may talk like they can do it, but they can't. You know how some people talk and talk and you know that talk is all it is, no matter what they say? When it comes to embracing the pain, that's the barrier right there. Most people are WEAK, plain and simple. That's just the way it is. See, what I am saying ADDS UP because it reflects the real world. To make it as a trader you have to be strong, mentally, emotionally and maybe even physically. So why do most people experience long run failure at trading? At the root of it, because they are weak. Period.

So the only real secret is to always treat yourself like a beginner and always be on that hunt for clarity. Thinking is the key whether you have a few rules or a truckload of rules, because thinking things all the way through is the only way to establish those connections deep down in the recesses of your mind. Tips won't do it, specific advice won't do it, generalisms won't do it, because no one knows what your flaws really are but you. If I give you advice in area A but your problem is in area X, nothing is solved. If you yourself don't know where your problem is, you can't hone in on it. All I can say is, don't see the rehaul as an admission of failure- or if you do see it that way, don't be afraid to admit it as failure. Creative destruction is vital. Going back to square one- or square seven, or square fifteen, whatever- is a necessary and vital thing to do. That's one reason why so much market specific or technical specific advice on this board is, in the end, a waste of time. You have all these peeps who have never gone deep in their thought process and never embraced the pain. And I don't care if that sounds like Freud, lack of deep knowledge and lack of trial by fire has real world effects on the trading account, period.

So again I say, thinking is hard, admitting your own inadequacy is hard, backing up the truck is hard, embracing the pain is a bitch kitty. But that's the whole point. This stuff will always be tough, if everyone in the human race were strong and smart and disciplined there would be no one to take the crappy jobs. Mediocrity is like a black hole, you have to fight with all your might not to be sucked in by it. You might be close to breaking through, you might be years away yet. But it may help to know that it depends on your knowledge and your curiosity and your strength to persevere, NOT on some magic bullet.

I can see, very clearly, that you have put yourself through the mincer.The operative phrase is "that you yourself have put yourself through the mincer", and that you did this through your own detrermination and resolve. I know this and am able to immediately recognise this because of the particular way that you explain and recount your difficulties and your persistent efforts to overcome, as the sentiment cannot be invented by anyone other than those of us who have chosen to put ourselves through it.. My compliments to you.

 

[superfly]

I can see, very clearly, that you have put yourself through the mincer.The operative phrase is "that you yourself have put yourself through the mincer", and that you did this through your own detrermination and resolve. I know this and am able to immediately recognise this because of the particular way that you explain and recount your difficulties and your persistent efforts to overcome, as the sentiment cannot be invented by anyone other than those of us who have chosen to put ourselves through it.. My compliments to you.

what a yourney this is

 

[SOCRATES]

what a yourney this is

It is one hell of a journey, I agree.

Yes, but the great tragedy is that they don't believe it at all.

They think it is not necessary.

I myself am accused of all sorts of things....amongst which is of.......... "giving all of this a lot of spin.....which is not necessary" :cheesy:

 

[new_trader]

Yes, but the great tragedy is that they don't believe it at all.

They think it is not necessary.

I myself am accused of all sorts of things....amongst which is of.......... "giving all of this a lot of spin.....which is not necessary" :cheesy:

Socrates, I know you don't like giving advice, but can you please explain who "they" are?

 

[tunnel1x1]

More reality check by darkhorse:
But it may help to know that it depends on your knowledge and your curiosity and your strength to persevere, NOT on some magic bullet.[/QUOTE]


In my opinion, this is one of the keys to success as a trader. After going through the valleys of despair, saying I'm going to give up - I'll never get it, I always come out on the other end saying "You're not going to beat me. I don't care what it takes. I'm not giving up. I'm going to keep at this for as long as it takes as hard as it takes. I will succeed." I have a saying by Calvin Coolidge hanging above my computer that I look at every night - "Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence." For those of us who have not been gifted with genius, talent, or a great mentor, persistence is a necessity.

 

[SOCRATES]

Socrates, I know you don't like giving advice, but can you please explain who "they" are?

The crowd.

 

[new_trader]

The crowd.

Would you be willing to clarify? Would you say "The Crowd" is the 97% that fails?

 

[Glenn]

Superfly and Socrates I agree.
It's good that Superfly has come along because he has a dfferent way with words, which may help those who cannot see the points Socrates makes.
As another who has put himself through the mincer I fully concur. I just hope that those who aspire to be instant brain surgeons can understand what is being conveyed.
If it were simple to explain it would have been done long ago, but entering into aspects of your psyche that normally remain untouched is no easy matter to do or to describe.
I urge the moaners (crowd) and lurkers to stay with it and listen. If you really want to, you will learn something to your benefit.
And once you arrive at the destination you will realise how difficult it is to decribe the journey in such a way that others can understand.
Glenn

 

[new_trader]

In my opinion, this is one of the keys to success as a trader. After going through the valleys of despair, saying I'm going to give up - I'll never get it, I always come out on the other end saying "You're not going to beat me. I don't care what it takes. I'm not giving up. I'm going to keep at this for as long as it takes as hard as it takes. I will succeed." I have a saying by Calvin Coolidge hanging above my computer that I look at every night - "Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence." For those of us who have not been gifted with genius, talent, or a great mentor, persistence is a necessity.

One of my favourites is:

"Failure is the chance to start again more intelligently"