FetteredChinos
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still looks a bit bullish... im flat on the Dow at the mo, waiting for a signal to go short.
might not try to do anything too significant until next week.
who knows...
might not try to do anything too significant until next week.
who knows...
roguetrader
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Equity and Index options expire today
Racer
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MCD pushing the Dow up
OAK BROOK, Ill. (AP) -- McDonald's Corp., the world's largest fast food company by sales, on Friday said global sales grew 3.8 percent in June at restaurants open at least a year and issued second-quarter earnings guidance.
The company said it expects second-quarter earnings of about 42 cents per share, including 9 cents per share of incremental tax expense to repatriate about $3.2 billion in overseas earnings and 2 cents per share in stock compensation expenses.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the company to earn 48 cents per share for the quarter. Such estimates usually exclude one-time items, but it could not immediately be determined whether the analysts' estimates for McDonald's excluded the newly-announced repatriation and stock compensation expenses.
OAK BROOK, Ill. (AP) -- McDonald's Corp., the world's largest fast food company by sales, on Friday said global sales grew 3.8 percent in June at restaurants open at least a year and issued second-quarter earnings guidance.
The company said it expects second-quarter earnings of about 42 cents per share, including 9 cents per share of incremental tax expense to repatriate about $3.2 billion in overseas earnings and 2 cents per share in stock compensation expenses.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the company to earn 48 cents per share for the quarter. Such estimates usually exclude one-time items, but it could not immediately be determined whether the analysts' estimates for McDonald's excluded the newly-announced repatriation and stock compensation expenses.
roguetrader
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Slow stuff today, volume on both markets contracting noticably from yeaterday. Internals bearish on both markets to a similar degree. So far just a pause fromthe upward momentum. Would be looking for about 10,560 to hold on INDU if we pull back further. SPX looking for about 1218 to hold, and COMPQ would be looking for 2125 to hold
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Closing below 1222.12.....for today, would be fantastic.
That would be great on the weekly charts.......
We see what happens in the remaining few hours.....
Just doesn't look like a strong market......it seems as if we'll get a breakout fake out at best.
A breakout on the S&P has already occured and for the Dow we need a close above 10650.
I feel rather confident shorting at these levels. Should we edge higher then more shorts will follow.....
That would be great on the weekly charts.......
We see what happens in the remaining few hours.....
Just doesn't look like a strong market......it seems as if we'll get a breakout fake out at best.
A breakout on the S&P has already occured and for the Dow we need a close above 10650.
I feel rather confident shorting at these levels. Should we edge higher then more shorts will follow.....
roguetrader
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Sector rotation from small and mid cap to large cap, imhoRacer said:
Racer
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How to look on the bright side of earnings... read only what you want to see...............Bluewave said:
Shares of McDonald's (MCD: news, chart, profile) advanced 4.7% to finish Friday's session at $30.99, rising $1.39 and bucker a weaker blue-chip trend.
The world's largest fast-food chain boosted expectations for next week's quarterly earnings report, telling Wall Street and investors to look for a profit of 42 cents a share, including an incremental tax expense of 9 cents related to the repatriation of $3.2 billion in foreign earnings.
Without that charge, earnings would be 51 cents a share, or about 6.2% ahead of the 48-cent average estimate among analysts polled by Thomson First Call. The company is scheduled to formally report quarterly earnings early next Thursday.
.....
June's comparable-store sales -- an important industry benchmark -- were up 5.4% in the U.S. compared with last year's 6.6% gain. In Europe, where analysts had been expecting a flat or negative comparison, comp-stores sales rose 1.3%. Last year, they came in higher by 3.6%. And the much smaller Asia/Pacific/Middle East/Africa segment reported June comps growth of a 2.9% versus last year's 6.8% gain.
While analysts noted that sales increases in the U.S. are slowing compared to results last year and in 2003, they didn't seem concerned. The quarter's sales were helped with the introduction of a fruit-and-walnut salad, coupled with a number of premium burger promotions and extended hours. McDonald's is preparing a late-summer rollout of premium chicken sandwiches that many believe will be a boon to third- and fourth-quarter sales.
Full story
Racer
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Note:
'Back in the U.S., Morgan Stanley analyst Mark Wiltamuth thinks McDonald's same-stores sales results are settling in a growth range of 4% to 5%. Though that's well below the double-digit monthly gains the company has knocked out throughout most of the past two years, it is still considered a healthy increase.'
Um, he said healthy Shouldn't that comment be issued with a health warning?
'Back in the U.S., Morgan Stanley analyst Mark Wiltamuth thinks McDonald's same-stores sales results are settling in a growth range of 4% to 5%. Though that's well below the double-digit monthly gains the company has knocked out throughout most of the past two years, it is still considered a healthy increase.'
Um, he said healthy Shouldn't that comment be issued with a health warning?
roguetrader
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Pause day today in the indices, volume contracted by about 15% on NYSE and 18% on Nasdaq. Once again we find ourselves at significant points in the indices. With earnings season in full swing there will be no shortage of information for investors to digest.
The VIX set an all time closing low at 10.33 and an intraday low not seen since Jan of 1994 which should act as the proverbial "red warning light" on the market's instrument panel. But, if you are shorting from here I would make sure you have the stomach for fairly wide stops, such is the risk of picking tops.
Will put some charts up at the weekend.
The VIX set an all time closing low at 10.33 and an intraday low not seen since Jan of 1994 which should act as the proverbial "red warning light" on the market's instrument panel. But, if you are shorting from here I would make sure you have the stomach for fairly wide stops, such is the risk of picking tops.
Will put some charts up at the weekend.
Racer
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Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:01 PM ET
The United States has confirmed the second American case of mad cow disease, in a beef cow born 12 years ago and raised in Texas, the nation's largest cattle state. It is the first U.S.-born animal infected with the brain-wasting disease, also called bovine spongiform encephalopathy.
The first U.S. case of mad cow disease was found in December 2003 in a Washington state dairy cow imported from Canada. That halted billions of dollars worth of American beef exports and raised questions about the safety of the U.S. food supply.
The United States has confirmed the second American case of mad cow disease, in a beef cow born 12 years ago and raised in Texas, the nation's largest cattle state. It is the first U.S.-born animal infected with the brain-wasting disease, also called bovine spongiform encephalopathy.
The first U.S. case of mad cow disease was found in December 2003 in a Washington state dairy cow imported from Canada. That halted billions of dollars worth of American beef exports and raised questions about the safety of the U.S. food supply.
Spot on RT. We are at a decisive point here with resistance at 10650 holding for 2 consecutive days. If it can break through then we could head to 10750 - 800 quite quickly. We may well see this next week. However the market is heavily overbought and we are likely to see a retracement back to the 10400 - 500 range before very long.roguetrader said:
Question is - where is the top !
Greater shorting opportunity if and when it can be identified. Meantime I'm still long from 10480 on Monday but looking for the turn. Be really interested to see your charts !
roguetrader
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Indu
Another positive week for the INDU puts us at a pivotal point, sitting just above the 61.8% fib ret from the Mar highs to Apr lows, kinda deja-vous. This is the point where we were halted last time. As with the last time we were here INDU has lagged for the most part on the trip up, though I have noticed some relative strength in the last couple of days, possibly some sector rotation from small and mid-caps. Bears watching. Volume seems solid enough for the time of year, though I may do some comparisons later.
Lot of talk about shorting this, as I said before, if you want to short here for a lengthy trade, then you must accept that you have entered the business of picking tops, and have the stomach for the stops that go with such a strat.
To the upside, effectively we are at resistance right here right now. Next target on a break above this level for me would be10,773 the 78% fib followed by 10,856 ish, late Dec top and Mid-Feb swing high. After that of course, full retrace at 10,984.
To the downside, I would be looking for a pull-back to find support at around 10,550 ish, consolidation areas from Mar-Apr and May-June. Below that I would look for the convergence of the 20, 50, 200 sma's around the 10,440 - 460 area, followed by 10,380 - 390 area that has provided S/R before. Then our old friend 10,250.
Right here I would favour at least a pull-back to the level I have out lined above, but bear in mind earnings season is now in full swing and the market is being bombarded with results and outlooks.
However you choose to trade here, plan it, with consideration to all the likely outcomes and stick to the plan.
Another positive week for the INDU puts us at a pivotal point, sitting just above the 61.8% fib ret from the Mar highs to Apr lows, kinda deja-vous. This is the point where we were halted last time. As with the last time we were here INDU has lagged for the most part on the trip up, though I have noticed some relative strength in the last couple of days, possibly some sector rotation from small and mid-caps. Bears watching. Volume seems solid enough for the time of year, though I may do some comparisons later.
Lot of talk about shorting this, as I said before, if you want to short here for a lengthy trade, then you must accept that you have entered the business of picking tops, and have the stomach for the stops that go with such a strat.
To the upside, effectively we are at resistance right here right now. Next target on a break above this level for me would be10,773 the 78% fib followed by 10,856 ish, late Dec top and Mid-Feb swing high. After that of course, full retrace at 10,984.
To the downside, I would be looking for a pull-back to find support at around 10,550 ish, consolidation areas from Mar-Apr and May-June. Below that I would look for the convergence of the 20, 50, 200 sma's around the 10,440 - 460 area, followed by 10,380 - 390 area that has provided S/R before. Then our old friend 10,250.
Right here I would favour at least a pull-back to the level I have out lined above, but bear in mind earnings season is now in full swing and the market is being bombarded with results and outlooks.
However you choose to trade here, plan it, with consideration to all the likely outcomes and stick to the plan.
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Let’s put our information into perspective.....
The trend is UP.
We have seen breakouts but as far as the Dow goes our breakouts this year have been pretty 'sad'.
We have seen another breakout on Friday at 10623 on the Weekly charts.
What can I see from the charts?
For now I would say we have a maximum of 100points upside left and for the week in an ideal situation I would like the Dow to close below 10700. Yes we still have to close above 10650 as we have some short term resistance on the daily charts.
But if members are neutral at this moment in time. I would not chase the upside as that could be a very dangerous predicament at this stage.......Instead we should be trying to pitch a point to enter shorts in this market. I am comfortable shorting at current levels and will do so even if we hit 10900.......A sharp decline will be seen soon....
We are seeing some major warnings from the VIX.
In this current set-up I can even allow for neutral to upward action for the next month.....
Selling into strength is what the pro's are doing and at the same time we have them creating this atmosphere in which they are portraying that this is the last time to 'buy' the crafty context of this situation is that this is the last time to 'sell'. A similar bullish theme was being created at the major tops of 2000.......
I'm simply trying to emphasise the true definition of these upside breakouts.......its not going to be one side upside traffic. I think many of you will appreciate that the point at which the market is most likely to turn is the point at which the expectation of the turn is extremely low.
Recent example?
In the middle of May to the middle of June we were creeping higher for a whole month. I don't know how many times members on this thread were suggesting the bears are sleeping.....
The expectation of downside was extremely low even though I was shorting like madness. What happened next?
26 days of gains were wiped out in 2 days.......
I don't need to give any more warnings......
If at this stage 'you' as a trader are finding yourselves extremely excited about upside then I suggest you look at the past and search for examples so that you can be reminded of how dangerous this market can be..........
Good Luck
The trend is UP.
We have seen breakouts but as far as the Dow goes our breakouts this year have been pretty 'sad'.
We have seen another breakout on Friday at 10623 on the Weekly charts.
What can I see from the charts?
For now I would say we have a maximum of 100points upside left and for the week in an ideal situation I would like the Dow to close below 10700. Yes we still have to close above 10650 as we have some short term resistance on the daily charts.
But if members are neutral at this moment in time. I would not chase the upside as that could be a very dangerous predicament at this stage.......Instead we should be trying to pitch a point to enter shorts in this market. I am comfortable shorting at current levels and will do so even if we hit 10900.......A sharp decline will be seen soon....
We are seeing some major warnings from the VIX.
In this current set-up I can even allow for neutral to upward action for the next month.....
Selling into strength is what the pro's are doing and at the same time we have them creating this atmosphere in which they are portraying that this is the last time to 'buy' the crafty context of this situation is that this is the last time to 'sell'. A similar bullish theme was being created at the major tops of 2000.......
I'm simply trying to emphasise the true definition of these upside breakouts.......its not going to be one side upside traffic. I think many of you will appreciate that the point at which the market is most likely to turn is the point at which the expectation of the turn is extremely low.
Recent example?
In the middle of May to the middle of June we were creeping higher for a whole month. I don't know how many times members on this thread were suggesting the bears are sleeping.....
The expectation of downside was extremely low even though I was shorting like madness. What happened next?
26 days of gains were wiped out in 2 days.......
I don't need to give any more warnings......
If at this stage 'you' as a trader are finding yourselves extremely excited about upside then I suggest you look at the past and search for examples so that you can be reminded of how dangerous this market can be..........
Good Luck
Last edited:
User
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Let’s put our information into perspective.....
The trend is UP.
We have seen breakouts but as far as the Dow goes our breakouts this year have been pretty 'sad'.
We have seen another breakout on Friday at 10623 on the Weekly charts.
What can I see from the charts?
For now I would say we have a maximum of 100points upside left and for the week in an ideal situation I would like the Dow to close below 10700. Yes we still have to close above 10650 as we have some short term resistance on the daily charts.
But if members are neutral at this moment in time. I would not chase the upside as that could be a very dangerous predicament at this stage.......Instead we should be trying to pitch a point to enter shorts in this market. I am comfortable shorting at current levels and will do so even if we hit 10900.......A sharp decline will be seen soon....
We are seeing some major warnings from the VIX.
In this current set-up I can even allow for neutral to upward action for the next month.....
Selling into strength is what the pro's are doing and at the same time we have them creating this atmosphere in which they are portraying that this is the last time to 'buy' the crafty context of this situation is that this is the last time to 'sell'. A similar bullish theme was being created at the major tops of 2000.......
I'm simply trying to emphasise the true definition of these upside breakouts.......its not going to be one side upside traffic. I think many of you will appreciate that the point at which the market is most likely to turn is the point at which the expectation of the turn is extremely low.
Recent example?
In the middle of May to the middle of June we were creeping higher for a whole month. I don't know how many times members on this thread were suggesting the bears are sleeping.....
The expectation of downside was extremely low even though I was shorting like madness. What happened next?
26 days of gains were wiped out in 2 days.......
I don't need to give any more warnings......
If at this stage 'you' as a trader are finding yourselves extremely excited about upside then I suggest you look at the past and search for examples so that you can be reminded of how dangerous this market can be..........
Good Luck
The trend is UP.
We have seen breakouts but as far as the Dow goes our breakouts this year have been pretty 'sad'.
We have seen another breakout on Friday at 10623 on the Weekly charts.
What can I see from the charts?
For now I would say we have a maximum of 100points upside left and for the week in an ideal situation I would like the Dow to close below 10700. Yes we still have to close above 10650 as we have some short term resistance on the daily charts.
But if members are neutral at this moment in time. I would not chase the upside as that could be a very dangerous predicament at this stage.......Instead we should be trying to pitch a point to enter shorts in this market. I am comfortable shorting at current levels and will do so even if we hit 10900.......A sharp decline will be seen soon....
We are seeing some major warnings from the VIX.
In this current set-up I can even allow for neutral to upward action for the next month.....
Selling into strength is what the pro's are doing and at the same time we have them creating this atmosphere in which they are portraying that this is the last time to 'buy' the crafty context of this situation is that this is the last time to 'sell'. A similar bullish theme was being created at the major tops of 2000.......
I'm simply trying to emphasise the true definition of these upside breakouts.......its not going to be one side upside traffic. I think many of you will appreciate that the point at which the market is most likely to turn is the point at which the expectation of the turn is extremely low.
Recent example?
In the middle of May to the middle of June we were creeping higher for a whole month. I don't know how many times members on this thread were suggesting the bears are sleeping.....
The expectation of downside was extremely low even though I was shorting like madness. What happened next?
26 days of gains were wiped out in 2 days.......
I don't need to give any more warnings......
If at this stage 'you' as a trader are finding yourselves extremely excited about upside then I suggest you look at the past and search for examples so that you can be reminded of how dangerous this market can be..........
Good Luck
