Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[Racer]

Trade and budget figures tomorrow - any thoughts as to effect ?

Also options expiry on Friday.

If they are bad, they will think, aren't we wonderful we got away with that!
Let's buy more shares.
If they are good, they will think, aren't we wonderful we did that!
Let's buy more shares.


:cheesy:

 

[Minder]

Figures? They will give figures? Are you sure it will not be a number that will at a later date (yet to be determined) be revised in some such way as to confuse the confused?

Figure of speech.
:cheesy:

 

[twiggytwo]

GDP& OIL/ Dow

My activity;

I was short the last time the Dow was at these levels and I accumulated a massive stake by the time the DOW had reached 10600+ area. (Live trade that was posted on here with a 200 point stop loss).

I then cashed out near the lows and then later I decided to go long at the start of this month. I did however get cashed out as the futures spiked down due to the horrific events in London. I then turned long the same day and made back most of the loss. However my original stance on the market was to stay long for the first two weeks of July but I was put off by the attacks in London and decided to stay neutral. These are the original levels that were anticipated when I decided to go long. (But I stayed neutral for most of the rise).

I am now extremely sceptical once again as I normally am near market tops and do have a tendency to get the tops pretty spot on in relation to my trading timeframe.

Current scenario.....

I cannot see a 'significant' rise from here. Selling into strength should be theme to adapt to at this moment in time as these rises are not being supported by institutional activity. The 'big boys' are selling.

I cannot not see the Dow hitting new highs for the year.

Will we take out 10623? Not likely, however not impossible. 11,000. NO CHANCE.

Will we take out 1225 on the S&P. You would think so as we are only 3 points away. However we could see tremendous resistance short term.

Will the NASDAQ 100 hit new highs for the year. I don't think so.

One things for certain, I will be accumulating some HEAVY shorts with the S&P500 target of 1140 seeming HIGHLY likely before the end of this year. Will I panic if we head higher? No. I'll simply add more like mad. All the bulls are probably thinking I've lost the plot....

Let me put it into another BLUNT perspective: This is not the last chance to BUY! This is the LAST chance to SELL......We're not hitting all time highs we will definitely be hitting new lows for the year........The media will try to get the smallest of suckers into the market by making out the last chance to buy........This is not going to be pretty.

However we do have the chance of seeing sideways to higher action for the next month or so. Which would mean we could see current to higher levels until the middle of August. The markets are trying to suck dumb money in.....Wow we didn’t collapse at the attacks, wow we got strong bottoms at 10250, wow we've got an even better bottom at 10,000, wow we're definitely hitting 11,000 this time......Most are probably thinking this way now........a few more weeks of sucking in and then everything starts to tumble and oh my god we can't snap 10,000 can we?

I haven't been updating much as I simply do not get the time.
Obviously we'll see what happens. I don't want to say 'I told you so', but this is just an update on my stance.....

Oh and has anyway noted the 'little' problems like oil lately? Yes $60 and higher prices to come......Why is the market ignoring bad news.....?

Well this is the perfect attitude of market tops.....

What will happen when the market falls? Oil will probably fall as well.....What will most say? Why is oil down today and why is the market down today?

Well what I say is: Why is the market up today and Oil is also up today? Danger? Yes! We can't see it yet but major danger ahead! As I'm sure we'll all find out.........

Kind Regards
Thank you and Good Luck
User

Hi USER interesting post, I think you will find that as long as the OIL is paid to the Saudis in Dollars and the USA lets the Dollar fall or keeps it low the price of Oil will continue to rise as the price the Arabs want is higher to keep pace with the falling Dollar.
The Dollar value when Oil was 26 Dollars a barrel was ok for them. I think they now need 75 Dollars a barrel for Oil with the current Dollar value so low.
The GDP ( USA ) has not been affected by 61 Dollars a barrel and I do not think it will move until 80 dollars a barrel.
Take care with your shorts if the Dow gives an EOD close above 10,540 see my post #5590
best of luck & Best Regards

 

[roguetrader]

Hi USER interesting post, I think you will find that as long as the OIL is paid to the Saudis in Dollars and the USA lets the Dollar fall or keeps it low the price of Oil will continue to rise as the price the Arabs want is higher to keep pace with the falling Dollar.
The Dollar value when Oil was 26 Dollars a barrel was ok for them. I think they now need 75 Dollars a barrel for Oil with the current Dollar value so low.

Hi Twiggytwo, having difficulty equating that mathmatically, if you take the $ v £ possibly not the best comparison, but a start at least, when oil was $25 ish last the £ bought $1.55 ish at its lows, today it buys $1.75ish about a 13% difference, oil on the other hand has more than doubled, so I don't see the mathmatical relationship, not withstanding the fact that the Saudi Riyal is pegged to the $.

 

[twiggytwo]

Oil Price Dollar Difference

Hi Twiggytwo, having difficulty equating that mathmatically, if you take the $ v £ possibly not the best comparison, but a start at least, when oil was $25 ish last the £ bought $1.55 ish at its lows, today it buys $1.75ish about a 13% difference, oil on the other hand has more than doubled, so I don't see the mathmatical relationship, not withstanding the fact that the Saudi Riyal is pegged to the $.

Hi RT, what was the Dollar Value for a barrel of oil when the Oil was 26 dollars a barrel ?
regards

 

[roguetrader]

Hi RT, what was the Dollar Value for a barrel of oil when the Oil was 26 dollars a barrel ?
regards

Ah, trick question, again I'm not sure what you are getting at. Let me put it another way, in the period of time that Oil has more than doubled the $ has lost less than 30% of its value against the £

 

[Minder]

The negative correlation between the dollar and the price of a barrel of oil has broken down since the beginning of 2005. The dollar index has risen from 80.00 to over 90.00. It has recently topped and is currently around 88.60. Oil prices have risen from about $47/48 dollars a barrel to over $60.

Peak oil fears hitting the mainstream and increased demand from Asia have allowed traders to push oil prices where they will.

 

[Racer]

May imports fall
But..
'The value of crude oil imports dropped to $13.73 billion from April's $14.04 billion as the average price per barrel fell by $1.68 to the second-highest ever, $43.08. The record, $44.76, was set in April. '

What will it be when they have the current price of oil in the figures!

 

[Minder]

May imports fall
But..
'The value of crude oil imports dropped to $13.73 billion from April's $14.04 billion as the average price per barrel fell by $1.68 to the second-highest ever, $43.08. The record, $44.76, was set in April. '

What will it be when they have the current price of oil in the figures!

I have yet to find a reasonable explanation for the figures used in these reports. Look at the chart for US light crude. Prices were way above those quoted above ?

 

[Racer]

I have yet to find a reasonable explanation for the figures used in these reports. Look at the chart for US light crude. Prices were way above those quoted above ?

ROFL I thought that price was a bit odd (I was quoting from a data report).. just shows you what is going on doesn't it!

 

[roguetrader]

The negative correlation between the dollar and the price of a barrel of oil has broken down since the beginning of 2005. The dollar index has risen from 80.00 to over 90.00. It has recently topped and is currently around 88.60. Oil prices have risen from about $47/48 dollars a barrel to over $60.

Peak oil fears hitting the mainstream and increased demand from Asia have allowed traders to push oil prices where they will.

Partly my point, there is little or no real correlation between the price of a barrel of oil and the value of the $, Certainly nothing that would allow someone to say that the $ is at such and such a level therefore oil is likely to rise to $75. Whether it rises to $75 or not will be little to do with the $

 

[Minder]

I have yet to find a reasonable explanation for the figures used in these reports. Look at the chart for US light crude. Prices were way above those quoted above ?

I found an answer on another site. The Nymex price for WTI is what is shown on the chart and is the price we see referred to most frequently. But Nymex WTI is not the only crude imported by the US, OPEC made up $9b of the $13.7b imported.

Other prices are available here. Sorry for the confusion.

Edit:
Imports by Country are available here
Thanks to Doodler on Prudentbear for the information.

 

[orky]

Smart Money Flow Index

Has anybody used/subscribed to the smart money flow index, provided by the Wall Street Courier. It seems the subscription provides some useful info.

Comments appreciated.

 

[Racer]

The Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine will file suit against Merck & Co. (MRK) Thursday, claiming it wrongfully relied on animal tests that strengthened the safety claims of the drug company's Vioxx.

 

[Racer]

IBM pulling the Dow up

 

[rustic1]

Racer

How did last Sat go?

Vol seems low today for a lot of the rally has anyone got any better volume figs than Yahoo Finance. With my trach & sierra vol never seesm very good

Rustic

 

[Racer]

Saturday was very good rustic1, I really enjoy the meetings, lots of good discussions... and a lot of bulls there this time!

 

[roguetrader]

Vol seems low today for a lot of the rally has anyone got any better volume figs than Yahoo Finance. With my trach & sierra vol never seesm very good

Rustic

Total market volume on Nadaq and NYSE running a little behind yesterdays pace, but not a lot

 

[Racer]

Are the S&P and the Nas stuck?

They have hardly moved yet the Dow is flying?

 

[roguetrader]

Are the S&P and the Nas stuck?

They have hardly moved yet the Dow is flying?

Yeah Racer, INDU showing a little relative strength again for a change, wouldn't have expected that, won't get far without the others though