Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[roguetrader]

Coming out of lunch, Total market volume ahead of yesterdays pace on both markets now, Internals have a slightly positive bias, but nothing to write home about.

 

[kriesau]

Superb post.

The idea that one man moves the markets is as King Canut moved the ocean.

12:00pm 06/09/05 U.S. BUSINESS DEBT RISES RISES 7.5% IN Q1

12:00pm 06/09/05 U.S. MORTGAGE DEBT EXPANDS AT 10.5% IN Q1

12:00pm 06/09/05 U.S. GOVT DEBT RISES FASTEST QUARTERLY PACE IN 2 YEARS

12:00pm 06/09/05 U.S. NONFINANCIAL DEBT RISES 10% IN Q1

Gonna move a market? Would that have done it? You'd think so and that was this afternoon.

And yet the market has gone up - just shows how irrational it can be !

 

[roguetrader]

Coming into the last hour, internals still positive but not by much and near the highs of the session.
Total market volume slightly ahead of yesterdays pace

 

[roguetrader]

SOX slipping into high gear in the last hour

 

[SOCRATES]

Isn't it naughty, to keep everybody on their toes, guessing like this and flirting with the 10550 level since 5 pm ? No wonder people are apt to get frustrated and then make impulsive comments.

 

[hariab]

any views on tomorrow guys... whats everyone think about the intel statement. Funny how they didnt release an earnings per share????? Think the market may not like that, and may have been anticipating a greater raise in forecast

 

[kriesau]

Oil up $2, from this time yesterday, to $54.60.
US trade deficit and May import-export prices due an hour before the bell.
May Treasury budget deficit due 14.00EST.

Today or Monday could see a breakout from this 10400 - 10600 range consolidation that has now lasted for almost 3 weeks.

 

[rrtech]

I think today will be quite negative unless the trade balance provides something spectacular. The resistance at around 10520 could hold again today and this time the Dow could drop sharply. Although it is still in an uptrend, this could end very soon with a break below 10400. Note also that Greenspans comments did not really cheer the market yesterday. So if it starts looking edgy at around 10520 I will be selling.

 

[roguetrader]

I think today will be quite negative unless the trade balance provides something spectacular. The resistance at around 10520 could hold again today and this time the Dow could drop sharply. Although it is still in an uptrend, this could end very soon with a break below 10400. Note also that Greenspans comments did not really cheer the market yesterday. So if it starts looking edgy at around 10520 I will be selling.

Whilst I do not necessarily disagree with your view, I do wonder what you base this bias on, since as I survey the rest of the worlds markets they are by and large in positive territory, thus suggesting you know something they don't.

 

[kriesau]

I think today will be quite negative unless the trade balance provides something spectacular. The resistance at around 10520 could hold again today and this time the Dow could drop sharply. Although it is still in an uptrend, this could end very soon with a break below 10400. Note also that Greenspans comments did not really cheer the market yesterday. So if it starts looking edgy at around 10520 I will be selling.

I tend to agree with you but one cannot be too certain after a 3 week consolidation period especially when there has been more Bullish sentiment over the last few days.

First level of minor resistance at 10520 will be an upside indicator (Futures have already gapped up the 17pts there). If it can convincingly breach this level and then the next major level at 10600, it could go on to 10750.
If minor support at 10460 and then major support at 10400 is convincingly breached then we could be looking at a retest of 10200

Where the trade deficit is concerned the market is expecting around a 5% increase to circa $58bn over the prior month, which came in at $55bn. However the domestic budget deficit is due to be announced at 14.00EST and that that might also have some impact on todays session.

I'm still short on the NDX at 1553 from last Friday. Will be watching the Dow and the SPX at the open after the trade news to determine direction and then again after lunch to see any impact from the domestic deficit number.

 

[Racer]

Nasdaq not very happy today

 

[kriesau]

Nasdaq not very happy today

Yes there is divergence which I been monitoring over the last few days. The Dow is currently up by around 0.5% from last Tuesdays open but the NDX is down circa 1.5% over the same period. If you look at a 5 day comparison chart you will see this more clearly.

I went short on the FTSE at 5040 about 30 minutes ago when the Dow failed to breach 10540. Nice 15pt drop since then which will also be some good news for FC.

 

[Pat494]

The opening pumps are weakening from Tuesday's level but the dumps may be strengthening IMHO (usually wrong )

 

[roguetrader]

Internals not overly bearish here, market a little undecided, for a change.
Total volume on NYSE lagging yesterday, about even on the Nasdaq

 

[kriesau]

Internals not overly bearish here, market a little undecided, for a change.

Currently 11 risers and 19 fallers.

GM is really holding it up so far with a 7.2% rise supported by HP and Du Pont up over 1.5%. Major decliners are Intel, AIG, Exxon, UTX and Boeing.

 

[roguetrader]

Currently 11 risers and 19 fallers.
]

Fair comment, I should make clear my internals information is for the total market as devided by NYSE and Nasdaq, currently the advancers to decliners on the NYSEE slightly favours the decliners by about 5%, whilst volume breadth is marginally positive in that market

 

[karmit]

some psycho analysis required: -)

In a sideways market, who loses patience sooner - pumper or the dumper??

maybe that will decide where we go next (?) !!

cheers,
karmit

 

[karmit]

I find these analysts and reporters very funny.... till today morning they were going gaga over INTC's outlook and had rave articles.... now after market open - and arguably some profit taking which led the price down - I happened to read this latest one:

"U.S. technology shares fell on Friday, hurt by a drop in shares of Intel Corp. (NasdaqNM:INTC - News) after the chipmaker raised second-quarter expectations but not by as much as some investors had hoped."

just a few hours ago these figures were supposed to lift the market - according to the same news agency

)))

I'm loving this!!!

cheers,
karmit

 

[kriesau]

I find these analysts and reporters very funny.... till today morning they were going gaga over INTC's outlook and had rave articles.... now after market open - and arguably some profit taking which led the price down - I happened to read this latest one:

"U.S. technology shares fell on Friday, hurt by a drop in shares of Intel Corp. (NasdaqNM:INTC - News) after the chipmaker raised second-quarter expectations but not by as much as some investors had hoped."

just a few hours ago these figures were supposed to lift the market - according to the same news agency

)))

I'm loving this!!!

cheers,
karmit

Virtually all media comment is based upon an attempted rationalization of what has already happened.

 

[roguetrader]

INTC has had a good run stock was up close to 20% ytd, not really surprising it is selling off a bit.