Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[Bluewave]

Something finally worked in public!
1/4 still running...

Edit - not any more, stopped at 471 +15 from 3 -10 from 1 = +5 p/c

Good old moving averages. They've worked well for me today also

Edit: Took my eye off GBP/USD for half a day and it tanks! Seems it plunged at the same time the DOW did, from 1.840 to 1.8236 (as of writing). Short term bear correction, or start of bull run for the USD?

 

[roguetrader]

Nice afternoon, nothing much changed since yesterday, Be interesting to see if INTC gives us a reason to move higher tomorrow night. Otherwise we could be stuck here for a while. VIX not looking so uncomfortable now.

 

[frugi]

Good old moving averages eh Bluewave!

Never mind, another scrape entry granted by the dazed lady wot fell down the stairs. Stop trailed to the low -1 of every bar as it closed, since it was so near to the close. I usually trail to the last bar low/hi +/-1 (unless a bar is a gift by virtue of its unusually magnanimous length in the right direction, in which case tighten up ) but am not too sure if this is an optimal strategy. As ever, discretion is the key, but it must have some pretty solid rules to stop it doing stupid "intuitive" (as in, "Hey how about an exit here, it's looking toppy") things cause my intuition is underdeveloped to say the least.

Edit: I'll move these to the 123 forum sometime as they are a little off topic - sorry.

 

[frugi]

Six charts of the main indices: 120 min and daily. You've all looked at them for hours (days) I'm sure, so I post them just for reference. I have the feeling that the Nazdog is looking precarious and needs to recover in short order or it will lead its friends down out of their consolidations/rising wedges but I'm always wrong.

 

[roguetrader]

and for clarification why i think 10,390..

daily range from friday's close.. so far it looks like confirming one of my standard 3-day cycle patterns.

however, if we break yesterday's high, then the 390 may come on friday.

im taking the opposite side of socco, and reckon we're gonna close lower this week....

FC, that's not out of the question for the bull case either, 10,363 is a support level and a 38% fib retrace from the high of this phase, so quite possible without changing anything dramatically.

 

[roguetrader]

Six charts of the main indices: 120 min and daily. You've all looked at them for hours (days) I'm sure, so I post them just for reference. I have the feeling that the Nazdog is looking precarious and needs to recover in short order or it will lead its friends down out of their consolidations/rising wedges but I'm always wrong.

I have a target of 2018 on the Nas if it corrects by price.

 

[kriesau]

I have a target of 2018 on the Nas if it corrects by price.

Hope your wrong RT since I'm still holding yesterdays shorts on the Dow at 10548 and the NDX at 1550. Managed to closeout my FTSE short at 5003 at even money.

Another consolidation day tomorrow perhaps - then breakout on Friday !!!

 

[roguetrader]

Hope your wrong RT since I'm still holding yesterdays shorts on the Dow at 10548 and the NDX at 1550. Managed to closeout my FTSE short at 5003 at even money.

Another consolidation day tomorrow perhaps - then breakout on Friday !!!

Would have thought you would be hoping I was right, 2018 on the COMPQ would be most helpful to a NDX short at a guess would coincide with about 1500

 

[DaveJB]

Well I disagree. One can debate definitions but I believe that we have been in a secular Bear market since mid 2000 and a cyclical Bull market over the past two years. On this basis, the 50% retracement in the markets since the mid 2003 lows represent the interim Bull cycle and I would expect markets to resume a bearish direction in due course this year.

[/color]

Hi Kris,
thanks or the reply - I'm curious about the 50% retracement you mention, which prices etc are you referring to there? I've attached a monthly Dow chart going back to 2000 and I make the low late 2002 at 7197, with 11750 the absolute high of the tallest bar on the chart - although the slightly later 11350 is more where I'd place the start of the fall (April 2001), giving a drop - depending where you want to start the fall of say 4000-4500 in round figures, which would place a 50% retrace at around 9200-9500 or so. With the market currently around 10500 it's more like 75% by my reckoning. Is this a function of that Yahoo price problem or are you putting the levels in different places to me? Using later highs for the top etc (such as March/April 2002 one) you can even make a case for a 100% retracement as the market has actually returned to about where it was 3 years back.

I find the whole market looks quite curious over the past 5 years - I 'remember' lots of bearish stuff and general woe, and I reckon the long tails dipping down on the chart contributed to that feeling, but looking back at it the thing that most strikes me is the long sideways periods that are in view.

Cheers,
Dave

 

[kriesau]

Would have thought you would be hoping I was right, 2018 on the COMPQ would be most helpful to a NDX short at a guess would coincide with about 1500

You're right - I don't really follow the COMPX - if it hits 2018 then the NDX should be around 1500.

Lets hope that you're right !!!

 

[RUDEBOY]

Point 'A'= 10, and point 'B'= 7, point 'A' being the 'highest' point in history. Then how can point 'B' ever be truly classed as bull? Can 'new' all time highs only ever really be classed as 'bull market'? Or is it all time reference? I hope this question is not taken as anything but serious! RB.

 

[kriesau]

Hi Kris,
thanks or the reply - I'm curious about the 50% retracement you mention, which prices etc are you referring to there? I've attached a monthly Dow chart going back to 2000 and I make the low late 2002 at 7197, with 11750 the absolute high of the tallest bar on the chart - although the slightly later 11350 is more where I'd place the start of the fall (April 2001), giving a drop - depending where you want to start the fall of say 4000-4500 in round figures, which would place a 50% retrace at around 9200-9500 or so. With the market currently around 10500 it's more like 75% by my reckoning. Is this a function of that Yahoo price problem or are you putting the levels in different places to me? Using later highs for the top etc (such as March/April 2002 one) you can even make a case for a 100% retracement as the market has actually returned to about where it was 3 years back.

I find the whole market looks quite curious over the past 5 years - I 'remember' lots of bearish stuff and general woe, and I reckon the long tails dipping down on the chart contributed to that feeling, but looking back at it the thing that most strikes me is the long sideways periods that are in view.

Cheers,
Dave

My comments were general and refered to the market as a whole. If you take the market highs in 2000 and the lows in late 2002/early 2003 the Dow fell circa 40%, the SPX 50% and the COMPX 80%.

Currently the Dow is up circa 46%, the SPX 50% and the COMPX 85% against those lows but these markets still remain 12%, 22% and 60% below their 2000 highs. Obviously the COMPX suffered a much greater decline as a result of the dotcom crash.

I agree with you that the market rise over the past 2 years has featured a lot of sideways movement. The lack of volatility, compared with 2000 - 2003, is a cyclical Bull characteristic as Bear markets tend to feature a much higher degree of volatility (fear) as was seen during the first 3 years of this decade. I guess the real issue is are we in a secular Bear that has been punctuated by a cyclical Bull over the past 2 years or are we now in a real Bull market.

My view is that we are in a secular Bear since the rise in the markets over the past two years has been artificially engineered by Greenspan and Bush via low interest rates and tax cuts. The consequence of this is a housing bubble and massive trade and domestic budget deficits. The markets have been manipulated like never before by the Federal government to arrest the recessionary outcome of the dotcom crash. This cannot continue and the day of reckoning is not far away. When this occurs the secular Bear will resume as the artificial cyclical Bull is consumed by the consequences of its own origins.

Thats my view - I'm sure that some would disagree.

 

[RUDEBOY]

If it is all just personal preference to time reference, then we should not bother with 'bull' or 'bear' or vicky versa. Because.......who is right?

Or can annomollies be 'meaned' out?

If so, what are the 'time' rules?

By the way, i mean 'meaned' as 'averaged'.

So not to come across as, well, presumptuous.

 

[Racer]

Hmm, one lot forget to add 'well' to a report not long ago and then another release prematurely? Uh, yeah...
?????

'Also weighing on sentiment and acting as a catalyst behind the late-day selling efforts was the premature release of a White House economic report, which showed a reduced 2005 real GDP forecast of 3.4%, versus previous forecasts of 3.5% (six months ago), and an increased inflation estimate of 2.9%'

 

[LION63]

Irrespective of this being a bull or bear market, what will really count is if the FED can manage to avoid a credit crunch or not. There are many variables and obstacles in the way of them being able to sustain growth and at the same time combat inflation, needless to say, the latter is the least of their worries.

The signs are already there; it started as a ripple and gradually the ripple will become a wave and consume all in its wake. The major weapon the FED has is interest rates and they will use them as they did before, unfortunately they do not seem to heed the flashing red lights coming from the bond market and the naive investors think this party will last forever. When the music stops and we survey the damage, suffice to say we will all realise this is/was a BULL RALLY in a BEAR MARKET.

 

[RUDEBOY]

Cheers, frugi, post 4655 was a better way to say it all. Good trading all, RB.

 

[kriesau]

Irrespective of this being a bull or bear market, what will really count is if the FED can manage to avoid a credit crunch or not. There are many variables and obstacles in the way of them being able to sustain growth and at the same time combat inflation, needless to say, the latter is the least of their worries.

The signs are already there; it started as a ripple and gradually the ripple will become a wave and consume all in its wake. The major weapon the FED has is interest rates and they will use them as they did before, unfortunately they do not seem to heed the flashing red lights coming from the bond market and the naive investors think this party will last forever. When the music stops and we survey the damage, suffice to say we will all realise this is/was a BULL RALLY in a BEAR MARKET.

Very succinctly put !

In the short term there needs to be a catalyst to break the Dow out of this 10400 - 10600 range that it has now lasted 3 weeks. That catalyst may come on Friday !

When it does come it should herald a major move, either down to 10200 or possibly up to 10750 if the Bulls still have an appetite.

 

[Racer]

Greenspan to talk probably about conundrums this afternoon that may make the bulls wake up again thinking all it well after he pats them on the head and says, there there, don't worry, I don't know what it is so why should you worry yourselves..

 

[SOCRATES]

Racer, very funny but very true.

 

[FetteredChinos]

daily charts are turning down chaps.. MACD and RSI about to cross important levels...

time to continue selling bounces.. even a big spike up today is likely to result in divergance and offer a selling opportunity.

FC