Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[gmca686]

Kriesau,
one year

 

[techst]

'm not sure moving average crossovers are really reliable.

 

[gmca686]

techst@,
It's not the ma crossover that is important.. It is what "intelligence" one can extract from their values and direction. Too complicated to explain in detail, but as someone who has studied statistics and Logic, I had my eyes opened when I read "The profit magic of stock transaction timing" by J M Hurst.
If you read that book, you will see where I am coming from.
regards,

 

[counter_violent]

Hmmm O K , only need a drop of about 650 points to get back in line with Dow comp prediction

 

[lemput]

just too tempting. had to go short. we've bounced very nicely from last friday evening when we were sitting at 10070... my take, we could be due a little test on the downside if only to probe the bull's nerves. Any good technicals on today? I am more the fundamentals type.

 

[SOCRATES]

“Long may it continue” like it.
“If I get time” another Socs in the making, ya little tease.

See if you can persuade him not to do this. People do not like this. They get agitated and say naughty things they learn to regret afterwards. It is very disconcerting to the hoi palloi.

 

[SOCRATES]

'm not sure moving average crossovers are really reliable.

The problem is not that they are not reliable it is that they are too late. If they could be made to cross over earlier then they would be perfect, if such a thing could be imagined in abstract reality.

 

[counter_violent]

The problem is not that they are not reliable it is that they are too late. If they could be made to cross over earlier then they would be perfect, if such a thing could be imagined in abstract reality.

They can be made to signal earlier, by simply adding a "period shift " function

 

[Racer]

A rising wedge that is failing into the close.. hmm

 

[SOCRATES]

They can be made to signal earlier, by simply adding a "period shift " function

Now there's a clever stunt, bet you no one ever thought ot that ! <G>.

 

[counter_violent]

Now there's a clever stunt, bet you no one ever thought ot that ! <G>.

Hmm ...well clearly you had'nt thought of it ....otherwise why post what you did !

Anyhow, no need to thank me for the info, standard function on any reasonable charting package

Far too much nonsense banded about for my liking, i'm off to burn some scones !

 

[SOCRATES]

Yes Me Too. <G>.

 

[Racer]

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Bush administration has given China six months to take a concrete, large step toward a flexible exchange rate.

In its semiannual currency report released Tuesday, the Treasury Department did not make a formal finding that the Chinese government manipulated the exchange value of the yuan for export advantage.

But the report warned China that it has six months, until the next currency report is due, to move to a more flexible exchange rate or be designated as a currency manipulating country.

"If current trends continue without substantial alteration, China's policies will likely meet the statute's technical requirements for designation," Treasury said. Read the full report.

'WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Bush administration will impose quotas on four more categories of Chinese textile imports because they threaten to disrupt the U.S. market, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.'



Oooo, some country is throwing a tantrum

 

[Racer]

'WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Bush administration will impose quotas on four more categories of Chinese textile imports because they threaten to disrupt the U.S. market, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.'



Oooo, some country is throwing a tantrum

'The Bush administration on Tuesday gave China six months to move towards a flexible exchange rate for the yuan or face possible sanctions.'

That was a very short 6 months!!!

 

[User]

On the 08/05/05 I said we should see a clear move above 10400. Well that was last week and now we have seen it happen today.

I also suggesting the market was topping near 10870-900 and also suggested we will not see 11,000. Unfornately my BIG bucks short was stopped out....just.

Then I also correctly stated that 10,000 will be the market bottom and we will not brake that level of support.

I also suggested that we will range trade up to 10200 area and well we started range trading from 10,000-200/20

Then recently I was suggesting that more upside should be seen with a instant test of 10400 then next test 10500 and possibly maximising to 10600 area.

I will analyse the current situation on where I see the market taking us in the near term. I notice that the strong up moves have now been appreciated but lets not get excited as only last Friday the calls for breaks of the lows of the year where being made.

Yes we've moved higher but please don't think 11,000 is coming. Simply stand back and analyse from a neutral stance. Don't over excite yourself at this moment in time

The first week of May I also posted a fact that 90% of the time the first week of May shows good gains. I posted on Monday that this week is also seasonally strong. At the very minimum I hope some information is gained by viewers.

Charts will be posted later.

Goodluck

 

[lemput]

user, you always seem to think this market is on the verge of tanking over a medium term... so when are you going to go short?

 

[Bigbusiness]

On the 08/05/05 I said we should see a clear move above 10400. Well that was last week and now we have seen it happen today.

I also suggesting the market was topping near 10870-900 and also suggested we will not see 11,000. Unfornately my BIG bucks short was stopped out....just.

Then I also correctly stated that 10,000 will be the market bottom and we will not brake that level of support.

I also suggested that we will range trade up to 10200 area and well we started range trading from 10,000-200/20

Then recently I was suggesting that more upside should be seen with a instant test of 10400 then next test 10500 and possibly maximising to 10600 area.

I will analyse the current situation on where I see the market taking us in the near term. I notice that the strong up moves have now been appreciated but lets not get excited as only last Friday the calls for breaks of the lows of the year where being made.

Yes we've moved higher but please don't think 11,000 is coming. Simply stand back and analyse from a neutral stance. Don't over excite yourself at this moment in time

The first week of May I also posted a fact that 90% of the time the first week of May shows good gains. I posted on Monday that this week is also seasonally strong. At the very minimum I hope some information is gained by viewers.

Charts will be posted later.

Goodluck

Nice to see some of your correct predictions but you forgot this one on the 12th May when the exact opposite happened. Just for a bit of balance

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=177208#post177208

Right we have just played near the lows of the day....we should see a close near the highs of the session......

 

[User]

user, you always seem to think this market is on the verge of tanking over a medium term... so when are you going to go short?

It could be soon.....

Notice how now we're sitting near 10500 and in relation to this level nothings happened for the bulls or the bears.....

500 points of the highs and 500 points of the lows....

But this markets bull run is definately over.....

BB yes that day I called it wrong but that was a couter trend call and that can be very hard to call. Although I have called it right on many '1day' basis.

Whats the consensus on the thread about the market? Racer, Kriseau you two seem to be bears that believe the bear trend has begun......Whats your views, please don't start to turn your positions into Longs as thats what the markets trying to do.... It painting this s**t picture that yes here we are moving towards 11,000 and before you know we'll be sitting at 10,000 again.

More views please about individual trader market stances please, because the moment most of you start to feel comfortable with longs then that'll be the time to short.

Don't call this a rally......call it a fake move up!

Racer two weeks ago you were suggesting about pumping a big short.......I did caution you according to my own analysis......You might aswell start accumalating your shorts because your sure getting good levels!

Major Failure area to watch: 10490-500

 

[roguetrader]

SOX on fire again, approx 5 points to key resistance of 200 week sma

 

[kriesau]

It could be soon.....

Notice how now we're sitting near 10500 and in relation to this level nothings happened for the bulls or the bears.....

500 points of the highs and 500 points of the lows....

But this markets bull run is definately over.....

BB yes that day I called it wrong but that was a couter trend call and that can be very hard to call. Although I have called it right on many '1day' basis.

Whats the consensus on the thread about the market? Racer, Kriseau you two seem to be bears that believe the bear trend has begun......Whats your views, please don't start to turn your positions into Longs as thats what the markets trying to do.... It painting this s**t picture that yes here we are moving towards 11,000 and before you know we'll be sitting at 10,000 again.

More views please about individual trader market stances please, because the moment most of you start to feel comfortable with longs then that'll be the time to short.

Don't call this a rally......call it a fake move up!

Racer two weeks ago you were suggesting about pumping a big short.......I did caution you according to my own analysis......You might aswell start accumalating your shorts because your sure getting good levels!

Major Failure area to watch: 10490-500

Interesting and informative post User.
Yes - I'm still a believer that we are in a secular bear market. My last short was stopped out a couple of days ago at 10200. I am looking for the right entry point for a new short cycle - maybe the 10500 level will provide it but the market seems so irrational at the moment that it could still move up to 10700 before it turns.

I'm also kicking myself since I had an insurance long order on the Dow at 10275 on the May contract which I cancelled on Friday due to the downswing on that day and the expiry date this week. I meant to reinstate it on a June contract but completely forgot to do so after the weekend. Penalty of poor management on my account.

Current technicals can be interpreted in a number of different ways since the low volumes on Monday & Tuesday had the aura of PPT intervention.

Market has now rallied nearly 500 pts in 3 days and it seems to be in neutral at the moment. I agree that 10500 is the next critical level. If it fails there it could go back down and test 10280 - 300 again. It's driven through the 50 day ma and is sitting right on top of it's 200 day ma.

The economic situation has not changed since last month and thats what bothers me. The market is volatile and jittery and responds too readily to news of marginal significance in a very exaggerrated way.

I am suspicious of this bull rally as a result and also because of the comparative low volumes that have driven it. Yesterdays volume was more convincing since it was more than 20% up on the volumes that drove Monday and Tuesday. I don't really think that the Hedge Funds have been too involved in this rally - I suspect a lot of them have been burned by, and focused on, the fall in commodity prices.

Bottom line is that I suspect that we are near another pivot which could take the market down. It's clearly in the 10400 - 10500 range and that is the breakout zone. It could still go either way. It's a very strange market at the moment and I'm just watching and waiting to determine the signs for the next short entry point.