Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

Morning FC

I'm in long as well at 10226. Hoping for a bounce but can't seeing it breaking the 10250 resistance before it starts to fall back again. From the charts it looks as if it's going to be a steady move down from here. Another testing of the 10000 in the next week perhaps?

What do you think?
 
i really dont think that we will see 10,000 just yet.

10,250 is indeed resistance in the very short term, but it is options expiry next week, oil is on the way down etc. bullish scenarios all round

plus, as per the charts that User kindly posted yesterday, the daily and weekly charts are pointing to some upwards movement.

personally i would hold onto those longs til at least monday or tuesday next week. which might well see next week's high..

good luck though, and dont blame me if it all goes Tong... ;)

FC
 
I will be just happy for the market to turn and make 10250 so I have a profitable trade. At the moment I'm still trying to convince myself that I can do this trading lark (been trading 7 months). Started with UK shares and now onto the DJI. I've paper traded the Dow for many months now and got to know it a bit before I started putting on real money. So far only at £1 per point but I'm in profit.

10 trades to date - 8 winning - total profit £36.
The hardest thing is to let the winning trades run. I have some more learning to do on this one. But I think I will get there - hopefully.

Thanks for your input.
 
nice use of the definite acticle there Joules..

you may refer to me as "Sir Seymour" from now on...

btw, clocked up our 100,000th page view last night.. i think i might celebrate tonight with a beer...
 
JillyB said:
So far only at £1 per point but I'm in profit.

10 trades to date - 8 winning - total profit £36.
The hardest thing is to let the winning trades run. I have some more learning to do on this one. But I think I will get there - hopefully.

Thanks for your input.

Nice trading JillyB, good batting average, stay cautious a clear market direction still eludes us.

Bold objective of 10,750 FC, I do not see that happening unless we can attract more volume on the up days (You gotta buy more FC :LOL: ) I do favour a target of around 10,250 if we can get a bounce on. If that level proves insurmountable then we will have a shot at a test of 10,000 over the course of the next 10 days to set up a H&S pattern. I know, a bit fanciful, but I only play at this long term stuff, let's see what today brings. I just feel the way the volume pattern is playing out we are far more likely to attract volume on the sell side to break the range than on the buy side.
Hope your longs go well.
 
I have just been consulting the oracle and it looks as if there may be some additional excitement in the Dow this afternoon, not to be missed....See you later.
 
SOCRATES said:
I have just been consulting the oracle and it looks as if there may be some additional excitement in the Dow this afternoon, not to be missed....See you later.


and that would have nothing to do with the data at 1.30 and 2.45 then??? :devilish:

Socco,im trying to be constructive here..

simply posting something to the effect of "the markets are going to move around" is frankly utterly pointless.

at least come off that ethereal fence and say where and why you think the market is going to move. (as per the title of this thread).

if you come out with this balderbash promise you made to chartman, im going to send Krisseau round with the sharp pointy stick..
 
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Does anyone have any positions (or thoughts) on the Dax ?

I fancy a long at 4260. I've posted a chart showing EWA and it looks like we could be at the beginning of Wave 3 within Wave 5. ( I'm basing the entry on fib retracements on the 60min chart).

(I realise this is a little off topic, but I know some of you follow the Dax and all the indexes are kindof inter-related - there's a similar pattern unfolding on the DJ)

Regards
 

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ivorm said:
Does anyone have any positions (or thoughts) on the Dax ?

I fancy a long at 4260. I've posted a chart showing EWA and it looks like we could be at the beginning of Wave 3 within Wave 5. ( I'm basing the entry on fib retracements on the 60min chart).

(I realise this is a little off topic, but I know some of you follow the Dax and all the indexes are kindof inter-related - there's a similar pattern unfolding on the DJ)

Regards

Had a quick look at the chart and would agree with you on this one. Long at 4260 looks like a good trade IMHO. RSI is mid-range on the daily chart and there's room for upward movement on the MACD.

But don't blame me if it doesn't happen! :cheesy: I'm the novice here. There are far more experienced people on this board at the moment. Perhaps they can help.
 
FetteredChinos said:
and that would have nothing to do with the data at 1.30 and 2.45 then??? :devilish:

Socco,im trying to be constructive here..

simply posting something to the effect of "the markets are going to move around" is frankly utterly pointless.

at least come off that ethereal fence and say where and why you think the market is going to move. (as per the title of this thread).

if you come out with this balderbash promise you made to chartman, im going to send Krisseau round with the sharp pointy stick..
did you ever manage to read Taylors's book, it was recommended & i bought it but like they said he might have been good trader but crap wrtier.as far as Angell is concerned was he not found out or something? i like one or two of his books then his got so many all applying the same methods in differnt markets.respect
 
no, i never read the taylor book in full.

ive read snippets of Angell's work, which is largely similar, but he came up with formulae for quantifying buy/sell days based on a 3 or 5 day indicator i think.

i had a quick rummage in excel, and it proved to be bowlarks..

it is more a visual guide as to where the market might go.. and can be applied on multiple time frames.. eg weeklies, monthlies...
 
roguetrader said:
Nice trading JillyB, good batting average, stay cautious a clear market direction still eludes us.

Bold objective of 10,750 FC, I do not see that happening unless we can attract more volume on the up days (You gotta buy more FC :LOL: ) I do favour a target of around 10,250 if we can get a bounce on. If that level proves insurmountable then we will have a shot at a test of 10,000 over the course of the next 10 days to set up a H&S pattern. I know, a bit fanciful, but I only play at this long term stuff, let's see what today brings. I just feel the way the volume pattern is playing out we are far more likely to attract volume on the sell side to break the range than on the buy side.
Hope your longs go well.

Charlie was right yesterday on a downswing in the markets. Today he's perplexed by an anomaly he has spotted.

"In the final 10 minutes of trading, when the Dow and the S & P showed evidence of the normal sell off, the COMPX reversed course and someone was buying.............the Dow and the S & P had lower lows but the COMPX had a higher low for the day........curious. We have a very unusual pattern of 10 weeks of unusually flat (or slightly falling) and upwardly struggling volumes. I've not seen it before so I don't have an explanation for it.....are we seeing a relative increase in the strength of the COMPX and therefore tech stocks - we have a lot of catching up to do if that is the case".

He is remains bearish on the Dow but is still seeking confirmation of a general downward move.

Futures up 15 at 10.00am this morning. We have March business inventories and April import prices before the bell and the U of M consumer sentiment survey due for release during the first half hour of trading. Import prices are expected to show a 05% increase and consumer sentiment is also expected to show a slight improvement. Oil is marginally up at $48.70.
Although the Dax is off 15 pts at the moment tech stocks are up in Germany this morning.

The question is will we see a bounce off the resistance range of 10180 -200 to retest 10300 - 320 ahead of option expiries next week or will it break and head down towards the previously strong support level of 10,000 :?: :|

Should be an interesting day and remember it's also Friday the 13th :devilish:
 
kriesau said:
Should be an interesting day and remember it's also Friday the 13th :devilish:

just run a backtest on Friday 13th moves in the dow..


123 times it has occured since 1928

70 of those days were up days..

56.91%

as opposed to the long term 51.8% being up days..

doo-dooo-dooo-dooo

:)
 
SOCRATES said:
I will tell you what it is, Rudeboy. You will find that I am not offensive, because to be offensive one would have to resort to bad language and to personalise insults. This is not necessary, because the English Language is the only language in the world in which one can be extremely rude if necessary, but politely.
This goes over a lot of peoples' heads.

What really annoys some individuals are several things:~

They don't like to be told the facts, they don't like to hear them. They prefer a sort of wooly world of excuses and skyving and dodging and so on.

They don't like to be told the truth, because this inteferes with their frame of reference and their beliefs that they cling to, and, unfortunately, many of these are the wrong ones when dealing with all of this.

They don't like to be contradicted, even in the face of irrefutable supportable evidence to the contrary as a result of their "opinions", which are frequently the wrong ones. They don't like this pointed out either.

They don't want to push their own envelope of their own understanding, they want it all on a plate.

They are not willing to be objective, and because of this they miss the point, and thus put their attention on the deliverer of the message, instead of the message itself.

They cannot admit, because their ego does not permit them to do so, to admit they don't know or are misinformed or the victims of misdirection.

They refuse to budge from what to them appears comfortable, in exchange for that which at first sight appears uncomfortable even if it is right.

They misunderstand discussion for argument and confrontation. Curiouslly that which they ought to confront in themselves in order to succeed they don't, and that which they ought not to confront in the way they do, they persist in doing.

They persist in searching for the easiest solution. The easiest route is not the best, otherwise everyone would be a winner and there would be no losers, and no market could exist for this reason alone.

They seek a result without effort. This is impossible.

They want the benefit of someone else's knowledge and hard work, at no effort or consideration to them.

They consider they are entitled to be told everything, to exonerate them from finding it out and experiencing it themselves.

They become boisterous and rude as a consequence of being frustrated for all the above reasons.

You cannot imagine what an education it has been and is for me to discover all these things about the way that people are apt to behave when the percieved objective is the acquisition of wealth, according to their frame of reference, which I find both fascinating and horrid at the same time.

They forget that the object of the excercise is total mastery, that is, not only mastery in trading but mastery of self. When these two things are achieved, then everything else falls into place.

And I continue to study the behaviour of people with great interest, that is why I continue to post.

Tsk, tsk - yet another harangue.
Somebody please ask Matron to up his medication !
 
Kris, behave, you have made you point, as has he..

now can we get back to the point of this thread.. which i think is discussing what i should have for lunch...

:)
 
FetteredChinos said:
and that would have nothing to do with the data at 1.30 and 2.45 then??? :devilish:

Socco,im trying to be constructive here..

simply posting something to the effect of "the markets are going to move around" is frankly utterly pointless.

at least come off that ethereal fence and say where and why you think the market is going to move. (as per the title of this thread).

if you come out with this balderbash promise you made to chartman, im going to send Krisseau round with the sharp pointy stick..

Fact is that he never has and never will because he can't !

:LOL: :LOL: :LOL: FC - even you must realise that he's three bricks short of a load ! :LOL: :LOL: :LOL:
 
FetteredChinos said:
and that would have nothing to do with the data at 1.30 and 2.45 then??? :devilish:

Socco,im trying to be constructive here..

simply posting something to the effect of "the markets are going to move around" is frankly utterly pointless.

at least come off that ethereal fence and say where and why you think the market is going to move. (as per the title of this thread).

if you come out with this balderbash promise you made to chartman, im going to send Krisseau round with the sharp pointy stick..
Fettered, you overlook the significance of the obvious.

Today is Friday the 13th. Can't you see that this alone presents splendid opportunities to frighten people silly with unexpected gyrations ?

Besides, you know my attitude. I always take Friday afternoons off, because participants do not have their attention on this, they are already thinking of the weekend and not work or business.

And today would be an excellent day to mount a Fright Raid, to catch everyone uanwares and frighten them silly, and then have all weekend to discuss it, on the news etc.,

You have to be prepared for these events, just in case they happen...
 
FetteredChinos said:
Kris, behave, you have made you point, as has he..

now can we get back to the point of this thread.. which i think is discussing what i should have for lunch...

:)

You could share a cupasoup and a marmite sandwich with Socrates if Matron will let you in at lunchtime :LOL: :LOL: :LOL:
 
I will explain further (ignore the creature) so you know.

If someone bursts a paper bag with a loud bang that you do not expect, it gives you a start, does it not ?

It will not give you a start it you are mindful of the fact that a paper bag may be burst with a loud bang, in advance of the event. This is what I am warning you about.
 
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