Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

FetteredChinos said:
ive been meaning to have words with you about that Ferret i bought from you last week..
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Buying Ferrets!!! Now I'm really starting to worry about you. :eek:

Or is this a new strategy for trading the Dow that your keeping up your sleeve ( or should it be trouser leg!!) ;)
 
Minder said:
But once the initial surprise has passed, the tendancy is to continue as before. How is this analogy helpful in deciding the direction on any given day ? There are always ups and downs. So there is a big correction coming. Unless I pick the absolute top and go short, your warning is of no use to me. The market does not move in straight lines.
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You are absolutely right. But the outcome is already decided in advance. The route to the outcome is what baffles everyone because it is not a straight line. You have to be patient
and give the route a chance to develop so you can follow it.
 
JillyB said:
Sounds as if you know the Island well.
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Yes, love it. For me its like going home. Lots of friends right across the whole spectrum. Visiting in August, staying with Dell and Ally. Let you know before i go.
 
Just had a look at the Dow comp, excuse my ignorance but what is the scoring system on it?
 
5 points for getting it within 100 points i think, double your score if within 20 or so??

5 if you enter on a monday, sliding down to 1 if you enter on a friday..

can sometime pay to wait til tuesday or wednesday before entering though...
 
Fettered, FTSE is sagging at the moment, seems the weakness is not resolved. Now it doesn't look bullish at all,at the moment, but then again, they are all at the pub. I have just been told that the pavements outside are overflowing with people enjoying their drinks. so you have to wait...
 
kriesau said:
Charlie was right yesterday on a downswing in the markets. Today he's perplexed by an anomaly he has spotted.

"In the final 10 minutes of trading, when the Dow and the S & P showed evidence of the normal sell off, the COMPX reversed course and someone was buying.............the Dow and the S & P had lower lows but the COMPX had a higher low for the day........curious. We have a very unusual pattern of 10 weeks of unusually flat (or slightly falling) and upwardly struggling volumes. I've not seen it before so I don't have an explanation for it.....are we seeing a relative increase in the strength of the COMPX and therefore tech stocks - we have a lot of catching up to do if that is the case".

He is remains bearish on the Dow but is still seeking confirmation of a general downward move.

Futures up 15 at 10.00am this morning. We have March business inventories and April import prices before the bell and the U of M consumer sentiment survey due for release during the first half hour of trading. Import prices are expected to show a 05% increase and consumer sentiment is also expected to show a slight improvement. Oil is marginally up at $48.70.
Although the Dax is off 15 pts at the moment tech stocks are up in Germany this morning.

The question is will we see a bounce off the resistance range of 10180 -200 to retest 10300 - 320 ahead of option expiries next week or will it break and head down towards the previously strong support level of 10,000 :?: :|

Should be an interesting day and remember it's also Friday the 13th :devilish:
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Hi kriesau, yesterdays action and indeed the last couple of days have seen a slight pickup in relative strength in the Naz, I think this can be attributed to sector rotation into the $BTK and $SOX, most particularly the latter yesterday. If you pull up an intraday chart of the SOX for yesterday you can see that while the DOW and SPX struggled most of the morning the SOX was on a mission. The SOX ran into trouble around the 400 mark (round number stuff perhaps). The setting of a lower high on the 5min after lunch was enough to spark the sell-off. $BTK showed similar early strenghth. Both these sectors showed some buying into the close which would account for the Naz pop. Both these sectors have been showing increasing relative strength recently.
 
SOCRATES said:
Fettered, FTSE is sagging at the moment, seems the weakness is not resolved. Now it doesn't look bullish at all,at the moment, but then again, they are all at the pub. I have just been told that the pavements outside are overflowing with people enjoying their drinks. so you have to wait...
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dont worry, ive got my order at the bar...
 
roguetrader said:
Hi kriesau, yesterdays action and indeed the last couple of days have seen a slight pickup in relative strength in the Naz, I think this can be attributed to sector rotation into the $BTK and $SOX, most particularly the latter yesterday. If you pull up an intraday chart of the SOX for yesterday you can see that while the DOW and SPX struggled most of the morning the SOX was on a mission. The SOX ran into trouble around the 400 mark (round number stuff perhaps). The setting of a lower high on the 5min after lunch was enough to spark the sell-off. $BTK showed similar early strenghth. Both these sectors showed some buying into the close which would account for the Naz pop. Both these sectors have been showing increasing relative strength recently.
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Yes, very interesting. However the BTK broke up through 500 about a month ago and has since ranged between 510 - 540 wheras the SOX broke down through 400 at around the same time and has since ranged between 380 - 400. However yesterdays retracement back up in the last half hour was mirrored by the SOX while the Dow and SPX were still falling. Tech stocks are up in Germany this morning even though the Dax is 16 pts down. Dow futures are up around 0.1% this morning while Nasdaq 100 futures are up by 0.6% which would support your rotational view.

It'll be interesting to compare the ongoing relative performances of the SOX/N100 with the Dow/SPX to see if this divergence continues.
 
Business inventories up by 0.4%, slightly lower than expected. Import prices up 0.8% compared to 0.5% expectations - however more than half of this was due to the rise in oil import prices. These two pieces of data should be good news on balance since, with oil stripped out, the impact on iflation should be benign.
Technicals and Fundamentals should have a positive influence on balance but the big wild card is what is happening in the hedge funds. There is a missing piece of the jigsaw here somewhere which is sustaining the current volatility.

We could be on the verge of a big move up (if the current fundamental outlook is a guide) or down (if there are some real hedge fund problem areas that have to be reconciled). However the person who coined the phrase 'the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent' might be about to have his principle revalidated. We are really in roulette territory here.
 
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