Racer
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Briefing.com
Perhaps also contributing to strong follow through from Friday's rally have been expectations that new inflows could filter in during the first couple days of trading.
Oh some people coming to buy our goods... let's mark the price up..
Uh hang on, where are they? They are a bit late aren't they?
Perhaps also contributing to strong follow through from Friday's rally have been expectations that new inflows could filter in during the first couple days of trading.
Oh some people coming to buy our goods... let's mark the price up..
Uh hang on, where are they? They are a bit late aren't they?
User
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I closed my longs before the open as I had to pop out and didnt want to hold them as I thought 250-60 is a little bit of trouble area. Looks like I was right in the sense that the market high was around 10260.
10250 is resistance.
I cashed out my longs at 10226. Gained 128points.
Not bad. I must say the Dow is holding up well.... Might jump on to the longside again...Anyway we could well test 10200 in todays session.
10250 is resistance.
I cashed out my longs at 10226. Gained 128points.
Not bad. I must say the Dow is holding up well.... Might jump on to the longside again...Anyway we could well test 10200 in todays session.
There has just been consolidation in the 220 - 260 range so far today. ISM and Construction numbers did not appear to have any impact. Oil prices have helped to support the market today and it looks like the Goldman prediction of a spike to $100 was rather foolish. Market will have factored in a 25 basis points rise from the Fed tomorrow. Can't really see what will push the market back down to 200 today unless there is some profit taking.
I guess the price action tomorrow will largely be determined by the Fed commentary on the rate rise.
Went short on the Nasdaq, with a tight stop, to establish a position for the week.
I guess the price action tomorrow will largely be determined by the Fed commentary on the rate rise.
Went short on the Nasdaq, with a tight stop, to establish a position for the week.
Racer
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Was just looking at the dow and looking at downtrend channel, also used 7 March start point. makes 10230 at top of channel, so intraday broke above, no confirmation of break upwards though and S&P and Nas not looking that good.Joules MM1 said:
Tomorrow, channel top at 10195
Racer
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Market deciding point is about to happen very shortly, lots of various mas moving to crunch time.. so looks like fed tomorrow will be the trigger, hmm, they don't want to scare the market, so it might be 'pat pat, we are in control of stagflation, don't worry it will lead to deflation so then we won't need to worry about inflation will we'
Racer
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"Going out on a limb
Lenders have fueled the housing market with no-money-down, low-monthly payment loans. At what cost?
By 2003, with the refinancing boom coming to a head, banks quickly set about trying to recruit more first-time home buyers, encourage second-home buying and promote home equity lines of credit as an easy and responsible way to fix up the house or finance a vacation.
Last year, according to the National Association of Realtors, 23 percent of houses bought were second homes. The amount Americans owed on home equity lines of credit, according to the Federal Insurance Deposit Corporation, jumped to about $491 billion at the end of 2004, up 42 percent from a year earlier, and more than triple the amount at the end of 2000"
see rest of article
http://money.cnn.com/2005/04/22/real_estate/financing/lendingrisk/index.htm
Lenders have fueled the housing market with no-money-down, low-monthly payment loans. At what cost?
By 2003, with the refinancing boom coming to a head, banks quickly set about trying to recruit more first-time home buyers, encourage second-home buying and promote home equity lines of credit as an easy and responsible way to fix up the house or finance a vacation.
Last year, according to the National Association of Realtors, 23 percent of houses bought were second homes. The amount Americans owed on home equity lines of credit, according to the Federal Insurance Deposit Corporation, jumped to about $491 billion at the end of 2004, up 42 percent from a year earlier, and more than triple the amount at the end of 2000"
see rest of article
http://money.cnn.com/2005/04/22/real_estate/financing/lendingrisk/index.htm
Racer said:
Extracts from Stephen Roachs (Morgan Stanley) commentary today.
"It was the asset economy that enabled consumers and businesses to draw on the pixie dust of a new source of purchasing power - asset appreciation - as a means to augment what has turned into a stunning shortfall of organic domestic income generation.........Unfortunately the asset based spending model has given rise to the many distortions and imbalances evident in the US today. This is especially true of low saving rates, the housing bubble, high debt loads and the runaway current account deficit. When the equity bubble burst asset dependant American consumers barely skipped a beat..........the pendulem of asset depreciation quickly swung into the property market and US house-price inflation has since surged to a 25 year high......equity extraction from ever rising property appreciation was viewed as a substitute for organic sources of income generation.....as a result household sector indebtedness has surged to 90% of US GDP.....thats why the personal saving rate has collapsed and currently stands near zero. Asset based consumption is also at the core of Americas current account problem........as a result the US current account gap probably exceeded 6.5% of GDP in the first quarter of 2005, easily another record and well in excess of the 4% deficit prevailing in the mid 90's.
The whole story remains balanced on the head of a pin of absurdly low interest rates and the Fed has certainly been pivotal in nurturing this low interest rate regime.....it takes low interest rates to provide valuation support to most financial assets, initially stocks, then bonds and now property. It takes low interest rates to make refinancing debt, and the equity extraction it sponsors, look attractive from a carrying cost perspective.
Low interest rates also discourage income based saving by underscoring the paltry returns available. A migration to riskier assets such as property is therefore encouraged as a result......low interest rates also makes it easier to finance an ever widening current account deficit especially when income flows come from foreign banks, who tolerate subpar returns in exchange for currency competitiveness. In short without low real interest rates the asset economy, with all of its imbalances and excesses, is nothing.
The day is close at hand when US monetary policy must get real. At a minimum that will require normalization of real interest rates. Given the excesses that now exist it may even require a federal fund rate that needs to move into the restrictive zone, probably as high as 5.5%.......this may cause an outcry but in the end there may be no other choices. Fedspeak has taken us into the greatest moral hazard dilemma of all - how to wean an asset dependant system from unsustainably low real interest rates without bringing the whole House of Cards down. The longer the Fed waits the more perilous the exit strategy".
counter_violent
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Can smell a very large move coming on ....u know that kind of feeling in the stomach when something is afoot , but can't put finger on it ....almost certainly southerly, but would'nt rule out northerly at this point......crucial numbers to watch this week ...upside 10,270, downside 10,000 which has'nt been tested at all I M H O
20% :arrowu: ....80% :arrowd:
Counter
P S...... User..... Have you given up yet on Hexxagon
20% :arrowu: ....80% :arrowd:
Counter
P S...... User..... Have you given up yet on Hexxagon
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